Crypto
Cryptoverse: Will bitcoin behave better on Wall Street?
BITCOIN celebrated its 15th birthday this month by bursting onto Wall Street with an ebullient bang. Now the adolescent asset may have to grow up fast.
Investors have embraced 11 U.S. exchange traded funds (ETFs), tracking bitcoin’s spot price, that began trading on Jan. 11 after receiving regulatory approval; after two trading days, they held a total of 644,860 bitcoin worth more than $27 billion, according to data from analytics company Glassnode.
Much of that – more than 500,000 bitcoin – was already held in a Grayscale Bitcoin Trust that had previously been a closed-end fund before it was allowed to relaunch as one of the new ETFs.
The 11 ETFs have seen total inflows of $4.1 billion since Jan. 11, according to CoinShares data.
The entrance of the world’s largest cryptocurrency into the world’s largest stock market “marks the end of the beginning of bitcoin’s maturation and growing-up phase”, said Glassnode.
It echoed the views of many market players who said the increase in liquidity would tame bitcoin’s volatility over time.
“This is a logical, nearly-inevitable evolution as a newborn security with a wildly uncertain value and price matures into a mainstream asset with a million punters punting,” said Brent Donnelly, a currency trader and president of Spectra Markets.
The total value of bitcoin traded on cryptocurrency exchanges is about $500 million a day on average, Donnelly said. By comparison, the U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.6 billion in volume on their first day of trading.
“I would assume even as things normalize, NYSE dollar value traded of bitcoin will be larger than what goes through on the blockchain,” Donnelly said.
Yet it’s far too soon to gauge whether the new bitcoin investment products will be able to retain investor interest over the long run, market participants cautioned.
Nonetheless, the 644,860 bitcoin held by the 11 U.S. ETFs after two trading days represented about 30% of all global spot bitcoin ETF holdings, Glassnode data showed.
Even if trading volumes subside as excitement ebbs, the increased market liquidity could see the launch of derivative products that bet on bitcoin’s volatility, according to some market watchers.
“Due to the current importance of U.S. ETF flows, we expect the U.S. trading session to be the most materially important session in terms of price action in bitcoin,” said Anders Helseth, head of research at K33 Research, referring to the near term.
BITCOIN WHALES MAKE MOVE
Bitcoin, birthed by the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto who mined the first block on Jan. 3 2009, has seen its fair share of spills and thrills over the past 15 years.
In its latest drama, it has leapt 50% since mid-October on bets that the long-awaited approval for ETFs, allowing access to the cryptocurrency via regular stock exchange, would attract fresh capital from retail and institutional investors alike.
The sharp rally in the months leading to the ETF decision encouraged investors to cash in, pressuring prices.
After hitting a two-year peak of $49,033 following the ETF approval, the notoriously volatile cryptocurrency slid 16% to $40,267. It remains about 40% below its all-time peak of $69,000.
There are signs that whales, the investor cohort that owns more than 1,000 bitcoin each and control a major chunk of bitcoin supply, are booking some gains.
The total supply of bitcoin held by long-term holders – those who have held for at least six months – has declined by about 75,000 from an all-time high in November as older coins are spent to take profits, according Glassnode data.
On average, a long-term bitcoin holder is sitting on 55% unrealized profit, the data showed.
“If you’re are sitting on very large unrealized profits as a whale, it really makes sense that you start monetizing some of your portfolio,” said Aurelie Barthere, analyst at blockchain data firm Nansen. – Reuters
Key Takeaways
A $2.2 Million Vote of Confidence
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder and former chief executive of derivatives exchange BitMEX, has placed a fresh bet on the Hyperliquid ecosystem, buying roughly $2.2 million of synapse (SYN) and publicly endorsing the project behind an onchain options exchange.
The purchase, made on June 29 through over-the-counter trading firm Flowdesk, totaled about 6.16 million SYN tokens. Hayes, not one to keep quiet, subsequently took to X and commented:
“I still want to be long the Hyperliquid ecosystem but I need some asymmetry. It’s time for an options dex to properly take on Deribit. Hypercall, owned by $SYN, is that challenger. Let’s see if they can cook.”
Hypercall is an onchain options trading protocol built on Hyperliquid’s HyperEVM, the smart-contract layer of the fast-growing Hyperliquid network. The platform lets users trade options, with positions tradeable around the clock and risk capped at the premium a trader pays. Moreover, it has been developed by the team behind Synapse, whose SYN token is the asset Hayes bought.
A Run-Up in SYN
The endorsement landed on a token that was already on a tear as SYN surged more than tenfold in June, and Hayes’s purchase and public backing added fuel, with Synapse’s market capitalization climbing toward the $55 million to $60 million range and daily trading volume running above $95 million in the wake of his comments.
Hayes commands an unusually large following among crypto traders, both for his market essays and his willingness to put capital behind his theses. Not only that, he has become one of the most closely watched voices in the Hyperliquid orbit, repeatedly championing the network’s HYPE token, at one point setting a $150 price target, though his wallet activity has not always matched his rhetoric.
Bitcoin.com News reported recently that a wallet linked to Hayes sold HYPE near $54 before buying back in at a higher price, a sequence that drew attention to the gap between his public calls and his trades.
Targeting Deribit’s Turf
Deribit has been the dominant venue for crypto options, a corner of the market long underserved by decentralized platforms because options are harder to build onchain than simple spot or perpetual-futures trading. By putting forth Hypercall as a credible challenger, Hayes is betting that Hyperliquid’s infrastructure can finally support a decentralized options market at scale and that SYN is the way to gain exposure to that bet.
That said, an endorsement and a price spike are not the same as trading volume, open interest, and users, the metrics that ultimately decide whether an options DEX can pressure an incumbent like Deribit. For the time being, Hayes and his $2.2 million bet have put a considerable megaphone behind the idea and the next thing to look out for is whether Hypercall can convert the hype and capital into durable trading activity before the attention inadvertently fades.
Crypto
Elizabeth Warren Says US Enemies Exploiting Crypto To ‘Move Billions’ After Iran Reportedly Uses CoinEx T
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) expressed concerns on Sunday over the potential misuse of cryptocurrencies by America’s adversaries.
Warren Says Crypto Legislation Will Make The Problem Worse
Warren cited a Wall Street Journal report on X detailing how Iran-affiliated entities moved billions in transactions through CoinEx, a cryptocurrency exchange that withdrew from the U.S. after a 2023 lawsuit.
“More evidence that our adversaries exploit crypto to move billions,” the senior lawmaker said.
Warren argued that the cryptocurrency legislation, i.e., the Clarity Act, would make the problem “worse” by creating new loopholes and urged Congress to strengthen the bill before passage.
CoinEx Serving As A Conduit?
The WSJ report noted that CoinEx has played a “growing role” in connecting Iran’s cryptocurrency operations to the global markets, with wallets hosted by the exchange moving more than $3.84 billion over the last 7 years.
The wallets received hacked cryptocurrency that originated with Iran’s Central Bank and were used to transact directly with accounts U.S. officials have since linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the report said.
In 2023, CoinEx was sued by New York Attorney General Letitia James for allegedly conducting business without proper registration in the state of New York.
The exchange didn’t immediately return Benzinga’s request for comment.
Iran Using Crypto To Bypass Sanctions?
Warren has repeatedly flagged concerns that cryptocurrency exchanges are helping move money into and out of Iran.
Nobitex has been under increased scrutiny from U.S. regulators and policymakers for its continued operations during wartime. The platform reportedly handles about 70% of Iran’s cryptocurrency activity and claims to serve roughly 11 million users.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo Courtesy: Bryan J. Scrafford on Shutterstock.com
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi traders assign a 76% probability that bitcoin hits $50,000 before $100,000, up 35% in recent weeks.
- Polymarket’s $45M annual bitcoin market prices a 64% chance BTC falls to $50,000 or lower before Dec. 31, 2026.
- Kalshi’s $10.3M timeline market gives bitcoin only a 14% chance of crossing $100,000 before January 2027.
Bearish Consensus Builds Across Platforms
The largest signal comes from Kalshi, where a market asking “Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?” now shows a 76% probability favoring the downside. That figure represents a 35% increase in probability in recent weeks. The contract has drawn $54,516 in total trading volume and resolves based on the CF Real-Time Index, using a 60-second average to confirm which threshold is crossed first. If neither is reached by Dec. 31, 2026, the market defaults to “No.”
The result: a strong majority of active traders on Kalshi believe bitcoin tests $50,000 before it sees six figures again.
June Price Range Looks Tight
On Polymarket, a market focused on bitcoin’s June 2026 price range has pulled in $30.3 million in trading volume. With bitcoin trading near $60,000 on Sunday, the crowd gives a 33% chance the price drops to or below $57,500 this month, versus a 29% chance of reaching $62,500 or above. Targets at $67,500 or higher carry odds of 1% or less. A drop to $55,000 carries a 7% probability.
The range reflects a market pricing limited upside in the near term and real downside risk through June 30.
$100K Timeline Looks Distant
Kalshi’s “When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?” market, which has accumulated $10.3 million in trading volume, shows traders see almost no chance of a near-term recovery. The odds of bitcoin crossing $100,000 before July 2026 are below 1%. Before October 2026, those odds sit at 6%. Even extending the window to January 2027 only brings the probability to 14%.
Polymarket’s companion market, “When will bitcoin hit $150k?”, paints a similar picture. With $26.9 million in total volume, traders give the $150,000 milestone less than a 1% chance of being reached by June 30. The year-end December 2026 window carries just 5% odds.
2026 Annual Targets Show Wide Range
Polymarket’s largest active bitcoin market, asking “What price will bitcoin hit in 2026?”, has drawn $45 million in trading volume. It tracks price milestones from Nov. 24, 2025, through Dec. 31, 2026, using Binance’s 1-minute candle data on the BTC/ USDT pair.
Current crowd pricing shows:
- $55,000 or lower: 78% probability
- $50,000 or lower: 64% probability
- $70,000: 67% probability
- $75,000: 50% probability
- $80,000: 36% probability
- $90,000: 20% probability
- $100,000: 10% probability
- $160,000 and above: 1% to 2% probability
The data reflects a market that expects bitcoin to both dip below current levels and potentially recover to the $70,000 range within the year, while viewing anything above $90,000 as a long shot.
$57,500 Floor Gets Priced In
Kalshi’s “How low will BTC get in June?” market has logged $1.7 million in volume. Traders are pricing a 32% chance bitcoin’s trimmed mean price falls below $57,500 before June 30. The odds drop sharply for deeper cuts: 7% for a close below $55,000, and 2% for a move below $52,500.
What the Data Shows
Prediction markets aggregate real money from traders willing to back their views with capital. The consistency across Polymarket and Kalshi, covering several separate contracts and more than $75 million in combined volume, points to a cohesive view: Bitcoin faces meaningful near-term downside, the $100,000 level is not expected to be reclaimed in 2026 by most prediction marketplace participants, and the floor around $50,000 to $55,000 is being actively priced as a realistic outcome before year-end.
At the time of writing, bitcoin was trading near $59,500, down roughly 31.5% from the high of the tracking period on the year’s largest Polymarket contract.
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