Arizona
Arizona could have more seats in Congress after 2030 census
By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services
PHOENIX — If the current population trends continue, Arizona will have a bit more influence in Washington after the 2030 census.
And California and New York will have less than they do now. A lot less.
That’s the analysis of Election Data Services which studies figures from the U.S. Census Bureau and figures out how that will affect how many seats in the U.S. House each state will get. And based on its projections, the company figures Arizona’s population, now about 7.4 million will reach close to 8 million.
More to the point, if the trends hold, that means the state will get an additional seat after the decennial count, bringing the total to 10.
But the predictions are based on more than just pure population growth.
That’s because congressional representation is a zero-sum game: There are only 435 seats to go around.
So that that are losing population — or even whose growth is not keeping up, are going to have to shed a representative.
Or more.
Kimball Brace, president of EDS, estimates that California actually lose will four seats in the House. But the mostly Democratic state will still have 48 representatives, more than any other.
New York, another largely Democratic stronghold, will lose three. That would still leave it with 23 representatives.
At the other extreme, at the current growth rate, heavily Republican Texas will have four more members in the House, bringing its total to 42. And Florida, also a state dominated by the GOP, stands to gain three to bring its representation up to 31.
And there’s another factor at play in dividing up those House seats.
Every state, no matter how small, is entitled to a representative. So that takes seven states which have only one seat in the House out of the mix, seats that, under other circumstances, could be reapportioned to faster growing states.
Brace said whether the trends to GOP-dominated states lead to a political shift in Congress is not a simple question.
“In the overall trend, it’s better on the Republican side,” he told Capitol Media Services.
But Brace said there’s another factor at play: the process that takes place in each state every 10 years redrawing the lines for the congressional districts.
In many states that process is purely political, with the decisions left to state lawmakers. And they tend to craft districts that are favorable to the majority party.
Still, there are constraints, including federal laws that make it illegal to act in ways that dilute minority voting strength.
That generally means ensuring that certain groups — Blacks in some states and Hispanics in others — have the same chance of electing someone of their choice as they did before.
Then there are states like Arizona.
While Republicans outnumber Democrats — and, for the moment, have control of the House and Senate — there actually are more political independents than those in either party.
And there’s something else.
In 2000, Arizona voters wrested control of the decennial redistricting process away from lawmakers — the people who had drawn lines favorable to the GOP majority — and instead created the Independent Redistricting Commission, a panel of two Republicans, two Democrats and a political independent who is chosen by the other four.
That law requires the panel to consider various factors, like respecting communities of interest, using county boundaries when possible, and having districts of roughly equal population. The commission also is required to create as many politically competitive districts as possible, those where a candidate from either party has a chance of winning.
And then there are those same federal laws that preclude enacting maps that dilute minority voting strength.
But all those guardrails have not eliminated complaints that politics still plays a role.
The first process resulted in litigation that lasted nearly a decade as Democrats and Hispanics charged that the panel had short-changed them.
Democrats did better after the 2010 census when Republicans charged that the Colleen Mathis, the independent who chaired the new panel, was siding with Democrats.
That played out over the decade, with the 2020 election — the last run under the old maps — resulting in a congressional delegation of five Democrats and four Republicans.
The situation was reversed with a new commission chosen after the 2020 census, with Democrats this time complaining that Erika Newberg, who chaired the panel, sided with Republicans. Whatever the truth of those complaints, the state now has six Republicans in the U.S. House and three Democrats.
All that will have to play out again after the 2030 census — when the state should have 10 House seats — with a new redistricting commission.
As it turns out, Brace said, Arizona should have gotten that 10th congressional seat after the 2020 census.
The official numbers — the ones released by the Census Bureau in 2021 after being delayed due to COVID and the ones used to divide up House seats — showed Arizona 79,509 residents away from that goal.
He noted, however, the agency just this past month released revised numbers for what they believe was the population in 2020. And that figure, Brace said, showed Arizona had not just enough for 10 congressional districts but another 111,058 to spare.
Blame COVID, he said.
“That delayed everything from the Census Bureau standpoint which pushed things back and caused them to no do some of the activities they had done before to verify and cross-check and that sort of stuff,” Brace explained.
He also said the Census Bureau has recognized “they’ve got to do something different and better.
“But 2020 was not the year to do that,” Brace continued. In fact, he said, some of the progress the agency had made in prior years about undercounts and overcounts “got reversed in 2020, not only because of COVID but because they didn’t get the time to experiment with and implement some changes because of the delayed timetable.
Finally, Brace cautioned that any prognostication of state populations in 2030 at this point come with a very big caveat: It depends on factors that can’t be anticipated.
Consider, he said, the projections for the first half of the 2000s decade which had indicated that Louisiana would gain a set in the 2010 Census.
“However, hurricane Katrina hit the state in 2005 and caused much of New Orleans’ population to move elsewhere,” Brace said. “By the time the 2010 Census was taken, the resulting reapportionment showed the state actually losing a congressional district instead of gaining a seat.”
What also can matter, he said, are changes in the economy, especially when people are unable to sell the houses they have and move elsewhere.
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On X and Twitter: @azcapmedia
States expected to gain districts in 2030:
Arizona +1 (from 9 to 10)
Florida + 3 (from 28 to 31)
Georgia +1 (from 14 to 15)
Idaho +1 (from 2 to 3)
North Carolina +1 (from 14 to 15)
Tennessee +1 (from 9 to 10)
Texas +4 (from 38 to 42)
Utah +1 (from 4 to 5)
States expected to lose districts in 2030:
California -4 (from 52 to 48)
Illinois -2 (from17 to 15)
Minnesota -1 (from 8 to 7)
New York -3 (from26 to 23)
Oregon – 1 (from 6 to 5)
Pennsylvania -1 (from 17 to 16)
Rhode Island -1 (from 2 to 1)
— Source: Election Data Services
Arizona
Dust returns to Phoenix area after hazy weekend – KTAR.com
PHOENIX — Breezy winds kicked up a blanket of dust across the Valley on Sunday, and forecasters say more is on the way this week.
Visibility in Phoenix became so bad on Sunday that Sky Harbor airport stopped flights for over an hour
The wind and dust peaked Sunday afternoon and gradually improved into the evening, said Michael Graves, an air quality meteorologist with the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality.
“You might’ve seen the mountains a bit obscured in the distance,” Graves told KTAR News 92.3 FM on Monday. “A lot of haze in the air.”
By Monday morning, skies had largely cleared and dust levels near the ground had dropped significantly.
Expect more gusty, dusty days this week
The relief may be short-lived.
ADEQ is watching for increased afternoon breezes Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday, this time from the west and southwest. Though the winds are expected to be weaker than Sunday’s, Graves said forecasters cannot rule out dust.
“I wouldn’t say windstorm,” Graves said. “I would just say we’ve got some waves coming in. They’re going to increase our afternoon breeziness.”
It’s enough to kick up dry, exposed dirt, which could create pockets of dust. There is a slight chance of broader regional dust transport, Graves said.
It will impact people with asthma, COPD or respiratory conditions the most. Graves advised those with issues to monitor conditions and stay indoors during the dustiest hours.
“If you’re going to be outside, be outside during the times when it’s less dusty or hazy,” Graves said.
Graves noted that spring weather systems typically pass to the north of the Phoenix area, delivering wind and slight temperature drops but little to no rain, a pattern likely to continue.
KTAR News reporter Kellen Shover contributed to this report.
Arizona
Trying to beat the heat: Addressing rising temperatures in Southern Arizona
The University of Arizona and Tucson are known for yearlong warm weather, but when is it too much? With temperature reaching record highs in March, the city of Tucson has already reported increased temperatures for this year.
In the wake of the third annual Southern Arizona Heat Summit, integrating voices throughout the City of Tucson, community stakeholders and experts from UA gather to speak about possible solutions and policies to address rising temperatures and extreme heat.
The summit strives to ensure that the lived experiences of Southern Arizona residents are voiced. The first summit commenced in 2024, in response to the declaration of an extreme heat emergency in Arizona by Gov. Katie Hobbs, as part of a larger plan called Arizona’s Extreme Heat Response Plan.
With representation from organizations such as the American Red Cross, the National Council for Occupational Safety and Health, Arizona Jobs with Justice, Tucson Indian Center and many more, the summit emphasized the importance of the perspective and concerns of stakeholder groups throughout the community.
The summit included a variety of UA experts, including faculty representing the School of Geography, Development and Environment; the Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy; the Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health and the College of Architecture, Planning and Landscape Architecture.
One particular project, led by Ladd Keith at the School of Landscape Architecture and Planning, is a part of the Southwest Urban Corridor Integrated Field Laboratory, which is funded by the United States’ Department of Energy to explore extreme heat throughout Arizona. SW-IFL works in collaboration with other national laboratories including those at ASU and NAU.
The team works to analyze extreme heat in the southwest and rural areas, and how communities deal with heat by conducting interviews. The team has also prescribed policy to Pima County and the City of Tucson regarding more effective strategies to combat rising temperatures, such as green stormwater infrastructure.
Anne-Lise Boyer, a post-doctoral researcher with the Climate Assessment for the Southwest, shared that the team particularly analyzed extreme heat in three parts: heat mitigation, heat management and heat governance.
Mitigation deals with prevention through strategies such as green infrastructure and planting trees, while management includes cooling sensors and heat warning systems. Governance allows these measures to be enacted through policy.
In Tucson, some of the most meaningful work the team has engaged in has been drafting the City of Tucson’s Heat Action Roadmap in 2024, which outlines goals to mitigate and mandate extreme heat and its impacts while prioritizing community voices.
The goals of the roadmap include informing and educating citizens of Tucson on the adverse effects of extreme heat and cooling people’s homes and neighborhoods by incorporating heat risk in regional planning. These steps are essential to practicing heat management, especially as the city of Tucson grows.
“I think the most interesting thing about being based in Tucson is that because the heat has been here for a long time, it’s like a laboratory in itself,” Boyer said. “We have all this research and all this collaboration happening with local actors because it’s a pressing issue in Arizona.”
As the annual heat summit recurs, new ideas and perspectives continue to be shared throughout the community. Boyer shared that this year, the Southern Arizona Heat Summit focused on the youth perspective, highlighting middle school and high school students and how heat impacts their everyday lives. Many students spoke about how heat shaped their lives at home, school and sports.
“That’s one of the goals, to have community members participate and give their input in how they wish the city will deal with the heat,” Boyer said.
Boyer and Kirsten Lake, a program coordinator for the SW-IFL team, also shared how the impacts of extreme heat impact some neighborhoods and communities in Tucson more than others, and that their research often evaluates these factors to determine where heat management efforts would make the greatest impact.
“Its important when you’re putting into effect some of these measures, that you make sure you put it where it’s going to make the biggest difference,” Lake said.
The work of the SW-IFL team is not just locally known. The Brookhaven National Lab based in New York deployed a specialized truck to Tucson to collect information on the atmosphere and rising temperatures. The SW-IFL team hosted the Brookhaven team.
Additionally, Keith’s work has led to a guidebook called “Planning for Urban Heat Resilience” which focuses on the adverse effects extreme heat poses to marginalized communities across the country.
“It is so different from place to place and neighborhood to neighborhood because you have to take the whole context into account,” Boyer said. “They recommend first to document the heat impacts in your communities.”
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Arizona
Person accused of making terroristic threats to medical facility in northern Arizona
PAGE, AZ (AZFamily) — A person accused of making terroristic threats toward a northern Arizona medical facility was arrested Friday morning.
Just after 10:30 p.m., police received a report of a person calling the facility and threatening to kill staff and Native Americans, according to the Page Police Department.
Authorities said staff placed the facility on lockdown until officers identified the suspect and arrested them outside their home.
The suspect was booked on charges of disorderly conduct, threatening and intimidating, and making terroristic threats. Police have not publicly identified the person.
“The Page Police Department is grateful for and supports the medical staff’s decision to put the medical facility into lockdown until the suspect was arrested and the situation was rendered safe,” the department said in a Facebook post.
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