Washington, DC – Hours after the United States announced the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Israeli politician Yair Lapid issued a warning to Tehran: “The regime in Iran should pay close attention to what is happening in Venezuela.”

The forcible removal of Maduro from power came less than a week after US President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and threatened to launch new strikes against Iran.

Although Washington’s tensions with Caracas and Tehran have different roots and dynamics, analysts say Trump’s move against Maduro raises the prospects of war with Iran.

“A new lawlessness makes everything less stable and war more likely,” said Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC).

“Whether Trump becomes enamoured with ‘surgical’ regime change, or gives Netanyahu a US imprimatur for similar actions, it’s hard not to see how this gives momentum for the many actors pushing for renewed war with Iran.”

He added that Maduro’s abduction could prompt Iran “to do something that triggers military action”, including developing its own military deterrence or preempting US or Israeli strikes.

Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, also said the US actions in Venezuela show Trump’s maximalist aims, further dimming the chances of diplomacy.

“What I see and hear from Tehran is that they are not interested in negotiating with the Trump administration the way this administration signals that they want total surrender,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.

“So, not much chance for diplomacy at the moment, which then opens the path to the opposite road, that is conflict. Right now, Israel, Iran and the US are on a path to potential conflict.”

Abdi echoed that assessment. “This action reinforces every doubt and suspicion about US intentions, and gives more credence to those in Iran who say engaging the US is useless and [that] developing a nuclear deterrent is vital,” he told Al Jazeera.

Iran-Venezuela alliance

The US raid that abducted Maduro and brought him to the US came after months of intensifying rhetoric from Trump against the Venezuelan government.

US officials have accused Maduro of leading a drug organisation, and Trump and his aides have been increasingly arguing that Washington is entitled to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also been emphasising Maduro’s ties to Iran, accusing Caracas, without evidence, of providing the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah a foothold in the Western Hemisphere.

Maduro is a close ally of Iran, and the two heavily sanctioned countries have been pushing to deepen their trade ties, which are estimated to be in the billions of dollars.

So, with Maduro gone, Iran’s small network of allies may shrink further, after the fall of leader Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Iranian government was quick to condemn the US attack on Venezuela, calling on the United Nations to intervene and halt the “unlawful aggression”.

“The US military aggression against an independent state that is a member of the UN represents a grave breach of regional and international peace and security,” the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement.

“Its consequences affect the entire international system and will further expose the UN Charter-based order to erosion and destruction.”

On Saturday, Rubio suggested that Maduro’s abduction carried a message to all of Washington’s rivals in the Trump era.

“​​When he tells you that he’s going to do something, when he tells you he’s going to address a problem, he means it,” the top US diplomat told reporters.

But Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei doubled down on his defiant rhetoric after the US raid in Caracas.

“We will not give in to the enemy,” Khamenei wrote in a social media post. “We will bring the enemy to its knees.”

Trump’s threats

Last week, Trump hosted Netanyahu in Florida and threatened to bomb Iran again if the country rebuilds its missile or nuclear programmes.

“Now I hear that Iran is trying to build up again, and if they are, we’re going to have to knock them down,” Trump said. “We’ll knock them down. We’ll knock the hell out of them.”

Israel launched a war against Iran in June, killing the country’s top military commanders, several nuclear scientists and hundreds of civilians.

The US joined in the attack, bombing Iran’s three main nuclear sites.

While Trump has often reiterated that the US strikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme and celebrated the war as a success, the Iranian governing system survived the assault.

Tehran responded with barrages of hundreds of rockets against Israel, dozens of which penetrated the country’s multi-layered air defences, and Iranian forces were able to keep firing until the final moments of the war, before the ceasefire came into effect.

Some critics argue that regime change was and remains Israel’s goal in Iran, and Trump appears to be increasingly buying into that objective.

On Friday, Trump warned that the US is “locked and loaded” and ready to attack Iran if the Iranian government kills protesters amid the ongoing but sporadic antigovernment demonstrations across the country.

He renewed the same threat late on Sunday. “If they start killing people like they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States,” the US president said.

So, could the US carry out a Venezuela-style government decapitation in Iran?

NIAC’s Abdi noted that Israel has already tried to kill the country’s top leaders, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, in June.

Trump also repeatedly threatened Khamenei with assassination, and Israeli officials confirmed that they sought to “eliminate” the supreme leader during the war.

“Iranian officials have said they accordingly have plans in place so that killing or removing senior leaders does not paralyse or topple the regime,” Abdi said.

“It would be far messier to run a ‘snatch and grab’ operation on Iran, given their ability to retaliate against US interests and personnel.”

Venezuela without Maduro

Even in Venezuela, removing Maduro has not translated into a regime collapse, at least for now.

On Sunday, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, now Venezuela’s acting president, stressed that Maduro remains the country’s only leader and condemned the US attack.

She also suggested that Israel was involved in the abduction of Maduro, a vocal critic of the US ally.

“Governments around the world are shocked that the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela has become the victim and target of an attack of this nature, which undoubtedly has Zionist undertones,” Rodriguez said.

Trump responded by threatening the acting Venezuelan president, telling The Atlantic magazine that she would pay a “very big price, probably bigger than Maduro” if she did not acquiesce to US demands.

So, the US president’s plans for “running” Venezuela and taking its oil are not complete yet, and will likely require more military action.

“I doubt Venezuela can be a ‘one and done’ or a quick ‘in and out’ situation, which is Trump’s favourite model. His brand is that he engages in quick shows of force, not forever wars,” Mortazavi said.

She cited swift operations that Trump has ordered, including the killing of ISIL (ISIS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019, the assassination of top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020, and the attack on Iran’s nuclear sites in June.

“Most Americans are tired of forever wars, especially in the Middle East, so the Trump administration knows they can’t sell more forever wars to Americans,” Mortazavi said.

But Trump has already floated the prospect of a ground invasion of Venezuela.

“We’re not afraid of boots on the ground,” he said. “We don’t mind saying it, but we’re going to make sure that that country is run properly. We’re not doing this in vain.”

Abdi said that a long-term US involvement in Venezuela could indirectly stave off war with Iran.

“There is also the possibility that the US gets bogged down in ‘running’ Venezuela and doesn’t have the bandwidth to wage, or to support Israel launching, the next Iran war,” he told Al Jazeera.

“Iran was next on the menu after the US invaded Iraq in 2003, and we know what happened there, and Trump may not want to pronounce ‘mission accomplished’ just yet.”

The oil question

Still, some critics – including Republican US Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene – have argued that if the US succeeds in controlling Venezuela’s oil resources, it will be able to offset energy market disruptions from a possible war with Iran.

“The next obvious observation is that, by removing Maduro, this is a clear move for control over Venezuelan oil supplies that will ensure stability for the next obvious regime change war in Iran,” Greene wrote on X on Saturday.

About 20 percent of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran may push to shut down in the case of an all-out war.

Abdi said that Venezuelan oil “could theoretically provide some cushion” to the loss of exports from the Gulf region.

“But this would mean a lot of things going right for the US in Venezuela, and it is probably far too soon to make that judgement,” he said.

“Avatar: Fire and Ash” is towering over the domestic box office during the first weekend of the new year.

James Cameron’s latest Na’vi adventure has collected $40 million from 3,825 North American theaters in its third weekend of release, declining 35% from the busy post-Christmas frame. Those ticket sales are pushing the third “Avatar” to $306 million domestically and $1.08 billion globally after just 18 days in theaters. “Fire and Ash” crossed the coveted billion-dollar benchmark slower than 2022’s “Avatar: The Way of Water,” which took 14 days, and the original “Avatar,” which took 17 days. Now it’s a matter of where “Avatar: Fire and Ash” will top out at the box office — and whether the third installment has the stamina to surpass $2 billion like its predecessors.

Since January is often glacial in terms of movie theater attendance, Hollywood studios barely release anything new around the dawn of the new year. That means a smattering of Thanksgiving and Christmas leftovers, such as “Zootopia 2,” “The Housemaid” and “Marty Supreme,” were behind “Avatar: Fire and Ash” on North American charts.

Disney’s “Zootopia 2” remained a force at No. 2 with $19 million from 3,285 venues, marking a minimal 4% drop from the previous weekend. After six weekends of release, the beloved animated sequel has grossed a mighty $363 million domestically and $1.588 billion globally. “Zootopia 2” recently outperformed “Frozen 2” ($1.45 billion) to become Walt Disney Animation’s highest-grossing movie of all time. That means the announcement of a third trip to the animal-filled metropolis can’t be too far off.

Lionsgate’s psychological thriller “The Housemaid” rose to No. 3 with $15.2 million from 3,070 screens, a barely-there 1% dip from the prior weekend. The R-rated film, starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried, has earned an impressive $75.7 million in North America and $133 million worldwide against a $35 million budget.

Fourth place went to A24’s “Marty Supreme” with $12.5 million from 2,887 locations, declining just 30% from the post-Christmas frame. So far, the Timothee Chalamet-led ping-pong dramedy has generated $56 million in North America, a great result for the original arthouse release. With those ticket sales, “Marty Supreme” has outgrossed the director Josh Safdie’s prior film “Uncut Gems” ($50 million globally) and ranks among A24’s biggest movies of all time. However, “Marty Supreme” cost $70 million to produce, making it the most expensive film to date for A24. It’ll need to remain a draw into the new year to justify its budget.

Sony’s action comedy “Anaconda” remained in fifth place with $10 million from 3,509 theaters, a drop of 31% from the prior weekend. After two weekends of release, the meta reboot of 1997’s “Anaconda, this one starring Jack Black and Paul Rudd, has grossed $45.8 million in North America and $88 million globally against a $45 million production budget.

Another Christmas release, the Focus Features musical drama “Song Sung Blue,” slid to the No. 8 spot with $5.87 million from 2,705 venues, a scant 17% drop. So far, the tear-jerker, led by Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson as performers in a Neil Diamond cover band, has grossed $25 million domestically and $30 million worldwide against a $30 million budget.

Although the year is very young, 2026 is already pacing ahead of 2025 by 26.5%, according to Comscore. Last year’s revenues hit $8.9 billion across 12 months, a modest 1.5% increase from 2024, though just short of the $9 billion that analysts had expected the industry to generate. As studios prepare to unveil major blockbusters — including “Avengers: Doomsday,” “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” Christopher Nolan’s “The Odyssey” and “The Super Mario Galaxy Movie” — will this year’s grosses manage to return to pre-pandemic heights?

“With a killer slate on the docket, there’s confidence that 2026 will be the biggest year for theaters since 2020,” predicts Comscore’s head of marketplace trends, Paul Dergarabedian.

Now, Hollywood just needs audiences to show up at multiplexes.

The day after elite U.S. forces captured wanted narco-terrorist and former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist movement Hezbollah will no longer have operations in the South American state.

The Iranian regime-backed Hezbollah terrorist organization is responsible for both the bombing of the U.S. embassy, which killed 63 people, and the Marine barracks bombing in Beirut in 1983, when 241 U.S. military personnel were killed.

Speaking on CBS’ Face the Nation, Rubio said, “It’s very simple, okay? In the 21st century, under the Trump administration, we are not going to have a country like Venezuela in our own hemisphere, in the sphere of control and the crossroads for Hezbollah, for Iran and for every other malign influence in the world. That’s just not gonna exist.” He also told NBC’s Meet the Press that, in regard to Venezuela, that meant, “No more Iran/Hezbollah presence there.”

GOP SENATOR PREDICTS TRUMP’S NEXT MOVE IN VENEZUELA AMID HEZBOLLAH’S INFLUENCE: ‘LONG PAST DUE’

Walid Phares, who has advised U.S. presidential candidates and is a leading expert on Hezbollah, told Fox News Digital that “Hezbollah has a long history in Venezuela and has emerged as a significant security concern in Latin America, particularly after the September 11, 2001 attacks. The origins of Hezbollah’s presence in Venezuela date back to the mid-1980s, when the organization began recruiting members from segments of the local Lebanese diaspora.”

He noted that Hezbollah gained greater traction following the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s consolidation of power in 2002. “During this period, Hezbollah’s presence became more visible, with reports indicating that some of its members gained access to Venezuelan state institutions, including security agencies, often through the acquisition of Venezuelan passports and legal documentation. These developments facilitated the expansion of Hezbollah-linked networks throughout Latin America, extending into Brazil, Argentina and Chile, and reportedly reaching as far as the U.S.–Mexico border.”

Phares said, “Hezbollah is believed to maintain a substantial presence across Venezuela, including command-and-control elements in Caracas. Margarita Island has been frequently cited in open-source reporting as a logistical hub used for activities ranging from financial operations to intelligence gathering and alleged narcotics trafficking. Additional public reporting has suggested Venezuelan cooperation with Iranian and Hezbollah-linked operations targeting Iranian dissidents abroad, including attempted kidnappings and intimidation campaigns in the Western Hemisphere.”

ON MADURO’S ‘TERROR ISLAND,’ HEZBOLLAH OPERATIVES MOVE IN AS TOURISTS DRIFT OUT

The U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hezbollah lashed out at the U.S. after it captured Maduro. Hezbollah said it “condemns the terrorist aggression and American thuggery against the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela” and “further affirms its full solidarity with Venezuela — its people, presidency and government — in confronting this American aggression and arrogance.”

The thorny challenge of how to purge the Venezuelan state and society of embedded Hezbollah operatives was addressed by Phares. He said, “One option would be to rely on a post-Maduro transitional authority that has pledged to dismantle terrorist networks. In practice, however, it is likely that U.S. intelligence and counterterrorism agencies would play a leading role in identifying and disrupting pro-Iranian networks operating within Venezuelan territory.”

Matthew Levitt, a scholar on Hezbollah from the Washington Institute, told Fox News Digital that “It will all come down to what kind of regime comes next. Trump’s statements leave that wide open. There is, however, an opportunity to address the longstanding Hezbollah presence in Venezuela, and the strategic relationship between Venezuela and Iran more broadly.”

Carrie Filipetti, executive director of the Vandenberg Coalition, and a former deputy assistant Secretary of State during Trump’s first administration, told Fox News Digital, “Among the many ways in which the Iranian regime and Maduro regime coordinated until Maduro’s arrest was providing a safe haven for Hezbollah fighters. Hezbollah took advantage of the lack of rule of law in Venezuela and parts of Latin America more generally to engage in money laundering connected to the drug trade. They are also believed to have used connections within the Maduro regime to secure Venezuelan passports for members of Hezbollah.”

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She noted that “It isn’t a surprise that the plot to kidnap Iranian American journalist Masih Alinejad involved taking her by speedboat to Caracas. Hezbollah and Iran knew under Maduro, they could operate with impunity there, spread anti-American propaganda, and plan anti-American attacks. Whether there are any implications for the Maduro- Hezbollah relationship now that Maduro is gone will depend on whether regime insiders are allowed to remain in power or not.”