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Why It’s Hard to Run Venezuela

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Why It’s Hard to Run Venezuela

Under Nicolás Maduro, a status quo prevailed among Venezuela’s powerful armed factions: Paramilitary cells enforced the government’s priorities. Ever-expanding crime syndicates, deep-pocketed prison gangs and combat-tested Colombian rebels often colluded with local officials or the federal government.

But with Mr. Maduro gone, and allies and opponents competing to fill the power vacuum at Venezuela’s center, there are many forces — or breakaway groups within them — that could frustrate the ambitions of whoever governs the country.

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Photos by Juan Barreto/Agence France-Presse and Adriana Loureiro Fernandez/The New York Times

For now, Delcy Rodríguez, a Maduro ally who led the stabilization of Venezuela’s economy after a harrowing crash, has emerged as the Trump administration’s choice to lead the country. Ms. Rodríguez, the administration determined, has a firmer grip than the political opposition on Venezuela’s many security forces and intelligence agencies, and their paramilitary offshoots.

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But the transition from Mr. Maduro’s authoritarian rule is just starting. The huge investments Venezuela will need to revive its vital oil industry, and the broader economy, require at least a semblance of stability.

That means the central government has to assert authority over areas of the country where well-armed crime syndicates or paramilitary agents hold sway, choking off their revenue streams from illegal activities, including extortion, drug smuggling and kidnapping. But that could upset the power dynamics Mr. Maduro used to cement control.

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Rebecca Hanson, a sociologist at the University of Florida and an expert on Venezuela’s security landscape, said that suddenly reducing the access to illicit markets and extortion rackets that criminal groups now enjoy is a recipe for turmoil.

“That invariably results in the perfect cocktail of increased conflict, both between criminal armed groups, and between criminal groups and the state,” Ms. Hanson said.

The new dynamic does not mean a full-blown civil war is on the horizon, security experts said. But pockets of civil strife could materialize under different circumstances. These include pushback from factions in the armed forces against Venezuela’s submission to the Trump administration, or a purge of security forces and intelligence agencies by an opposition-led government, potentially flooding the country with thousands of armed individuals with an ax to grind.

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But there are more immediate security challenges. One involves the colectivos, the armed civilian cells that function as paramilitary enforcers for the government.

These groups generally operate in cities where they control small but strategically important swaths of territory. In Caracas, they are based in strongholds like 23 de Enero, an area of decaying modernist apartment blocks under a mile from the Miraflores presidential palace.

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What colectivos look like in the streets of Caracas

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Armed members of a colectivo inspect the trunk of a car on Jan. 3, 2026. Photo by Jesús Vargas/Getty Images

Some colectivos there are more ideologically aligned with Chavismo, the socialist-inspired movement forged by Hugo Chávez. Others hew to their own mercenary ideals, relying on government payouts and small-scale criminal activities to stay afloat.

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Some colectivos have been seen on the streets of Caracas since Mr. Maduro’s capture. Valentín Santana, the leader of one of the oldest colectivos, La Piedrita, suggested that unnamed elements within the government had been colluding with the United States prior to Mr. Maduro’s capture, revealing fissures within Venezuela’s power structures.

“They betrayed our president, Nicolás Maduro, but history will make them pay,” Mr. Santana said in a video made after Mr. Maduro’s capture.

Should even a small number of individuals from such groups mount armed challenges to the established order, Caracas offers multiple options for refuge with its labyrinthine squatter settlements, sprawling apartment blocks, abandoned high-rises and hilly topography.

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The Coche neighborhood in El Valle in Caracas. Leonardo Fernández Viloria/Reuters

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Outside Caracas, security challenges also abound. Unlike the colectivos, some armed groups in rural areas are already battle-tested against well-trained adversaries. These include Colombian guerrillas with thousands in their ranks, often operating from Venezuelan territory.

These rebel groups, the National Liberation Army, or E.L.N., and splinter cells from the demobilized Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, no longer have realistic chances of seizing control of a central government.

But their numbers are resurging as they vie for control over drug smuggling routes and extortion rackets, while still relying on other illicit revenue streams like abducting oil workers.

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Venezuela’s mineral deposits are another potential source of instability, notably in the gold-rich state of Bolívar. Las Claritas Sindicato, one of the most powerful criminal groups engaged in illegal mining, is deeply rooted there.

Las Claritas, like similar groups, applies taxes on miners and traders, and exerts strict control over outposts where it imposes its own laws and punishments for scofflaws, according to InSight Crime, a research group focused on organized crime.

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Venezuela’s leadership faces not only challenges from illegal armed groups, but also potential defiance from within governing circles.

At the moment, there is a fragile alliance between civilian factions, led by Ms. Rodríguez and her brother, Jorge Rodríguez, the head of the National Assembly; and military factions led by Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López.

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In a photo provided by the Venezuelan government, Venezuelan leaders walk together at the National Assembly, in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. Marcelo Garcia/Miraflores Palace/Handout via Reuters

But an open rupture between these camps over a contentious issue like U.S. meddling in Venezuela could open up other chances for conflict, warned Ms. Hanson, the sociologist.

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Security forces and intelligence agencies are more closely aligned with the military faction, potentially threatening the stability of a civilian government whether it is led by a Chavista, like Ms. Rodríguez, or an opposition leader, like Maria Corina Machado, the recipient of last year’s Nobel Peace Prize.

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John Davidson Gives First Interview and Explains Tourette’s Tics After Shouting N-Word and Other Slurs at BAFTAs: ‘I Felt a Wave of Shame’ (EXCLUSIVE)

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John Davidson Gives First Interview and Explains Tourette’s Tics After Shouting N-Word and Other Slurs at BAFTAs: ‘I Felt a Wave of Shame’ (EXCLUSIVE)

John Davidson, the Scottish Tourette’s syndrome activist and real-life inspiration for “I Swear,” was thrust into the spotlight at the 79th BAFTA Awards when his involuntary vocal tics disrupted the ceremony, including an outburst of racial slurs that occurred as “Sinners” stars Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo presented an award. In an exclusive email interview with Variety, Davidson offers his perspective on what happened, including what precautions and guardrails he had expected the BBC and BAFTA to take before he attended the ceremony.

Since the fallout, Davidson’s team shares that he’s reached out to the studio handling “Sinners” in order to directly apologize to Jordan, Lindo and production designer Hannah Beachler.

Here he is, giving his account, in his own words.

Michael B. Jordan and Delroy Lindo at the Bafta awards.

Getty Images for BAFTA

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Many people’s only frame of reference for Tourette’s syndrome comes from stereotypes, particularly the idea that it’s “just swearing” or saying slurs for shock value. How do you describe the condition to someone starting from that place?

Very often, the media focuses on my particular type of Tourette’s, which is called coprolalia — the involuntary use of obscene or offensive language. This symptom affects 10% to 30% of people with the condition and is not a criterion for diagnosis. However, it is one of the hardest tics to manage and can be very distressing for those living with it. Many individuals report discrimination and isolation as a result.

I have been physically beaten to within an inch of my life with an iron bar after ticking a comment to a young woman whose boyfriend and accomplice ambushed me one evening.

The real challenge isn’t the tics themselves, but the misconceptions surrounding them. Understanding the full range of Tourette’s helps reduce stigma and supports everyone living with the condition.

When socially unacceptable words come out, the guilt and shame on the part of the person with the condition is often unbearable and causes enormous distress. I can’t begin to explain how upset and distraught I have been as the impact from Sunday sinks in.

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In the moment before a vocal tic, do you know what’s coming, or does it only become clear after the fact?

Depending on the severity of the condition, people either have an ability to suppress what they are saying for short periods of time, or they don’t. Suppressing can be compared to taking a full bottle of Coca-Cola and shaking it each time you feel the need to tic. Before long, the pressure is so intense it has to be released, and it bursts out — and on occasion, that can lead to a tic attack.

For me personally, my brain works so fast and the tics have always been so aggressive that I have no idea when they are coming or what they will be. I have almost no ability to suppress, and when the situation is stressful, I have absolutely no choice but to tic — it simply bursts out of me like a gunshot.

When a tic involves a slur or taboo phrase, what’s the single most important thing you want people to understand about the distinction between intent and involuntary neurological response?

I want people to know and understand that my tics have absolutely nothing to do with what I think, feel or believe. It’s an involuntary neurological misfire. My tics are not an intention, not a choice and not a reflection of my values.

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Those who have seen “I Swear” will understand this. My tics have said and done things over the years that have caused huge pain and upset — punching Dottie [my second mother] in the face is a prime example. Dottie is someone I love dearly. I would never, ever want to hurt her. I have even punched her in the face when she was driving at speed, almost causing a head-on collision.

Tourette’s can make my body or voice do things I don’t mean, and sometimes those tics land on the worst possible words. I want to be really clear that the intent behind them is zero. What you’re hearing is a symptom — not my character, not my thought, not my belief.

Tourette’s can feel spiteful and searches out the most upsetting tic for me personally and for those around me. What you hear me shouting is literally the last thing in the world I believe; it is the opposite of what I believe. The most offensive word that I ticked at the ceremony, for example, is a word I would never use and would completely condemn if I did not have Tourette’s.

I am often triggered by what I see and/or what I hear, and this part of the condition is called echolalia. For example, when the chair of BAFTA started speaking on Sunday, I shouted, “Boring.” On Sunday, Alan Cumming joked about his own sexuality and, when referencing Paddington Bear, said, “Maybe you would like to come home with me, Paddington. It wouldn’t be the first time I have taken a hairy Peruvian bear home with me.” This resulted in homophobic tics from me and led to a shout of “pedophile” that was likely triggered because Paddington Bear is a children’s character.

I would appreciate reports of the event explaining that I ticked perhaps 10 different offensive words on the night of the awards. The N-word was one of these, and I completely understand its significance in history and in the modern world, but most articles are giving the impression I shouted one single slur on Sunday.

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What went into the decision to attend in person, and what conversations, if any, did you have with BAFTA or the BBC in advance about how to support you and other guests?

This was an awards ceremony that featured six nominations connected to a film that told the story of my life living with Tourette’s. This has been a three-year project for me, working with the writer, director, production and cast. I am also an active executive producer on the film. I had as much right to attend as anyone.

I also knew that as voting members, most people in the audience would have seen “I Swear” and would be well prepared, well educated and well informed about my condition.

After living with Tourette’s for almost 40 years, I was aware of how physically and mentally difficult it would be for me to attend. I also had a serious heart operation only five weeks ago. I put every ounce of energy and concentration into being able to attend.

I was thrilled to see that on the night, everyone — including some of the most well-respected and famous people from the film world — cheered at my name and applauded. I stood and waved to show my appreciation and acknowledged that this was a significant moment in my life, finally being accepted. It started as one of the most memorable experiences of my life.

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StudioCanal were working closely with BAFTA, and BAFTA had made us all aware that any swearing would be edited out of the broadcast. I have made four documentaries with the BBC in the past, and feel that they should have been aware of what to expect from Tourette’s and worked harder to prevent anything that I said — which, after all, was some 40 rows back from the stage — from being included in the broadcast.

As I reflect on the auditorium, I remember there was a microphone just in front of me, and with hindsight I have to question whether this was wise, so close to where I was seated, knowing I would tic.

What was going through your mind in the moment you realized the room could clearly hear your tics?

Initially, my tics were noises and movements, but the more nervous I got, the more my tics ramped up. When my coprolalia tics came out, my stomach just dropped. As always, I felt a wave of shame and embarrassment hit me all at once. You want the floor to swallow you up. I wanted to disappear. I wanted to hide — just get away from all the eyes.

I was hoping people would understand. My mind was saying: These people have seen the film. They will know I can’t help this. They will know it’s not me. This is exactly why we are here. I was saying in my head, “Please don’t judge me. Please understand this isn’t who I am.”

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I was trying to calm myself down, to breathe, but ultimately, I made the decision to leave to not cause any more upset. BAFTA found a private room with a monitor where I watched the rest of the awards.

The awards were, in all honesty, just a heightened version of my everyday life and are the reason why, for many periods in my life, I have been fearful of leaving the house — because I am so anxious and nervous about what I might tic and what people’s reaction might be.

You’ve spent years educating and campaigning around Tourette syndrome. Where have you seen real progress — and where does misunderstanding persist most stubbornly?

Sometimes you feel like you are making real progress in educating people on the condition, but there is so much more needed. Comments following the BAFTAs where people have said things like, “I need to stay inside,” “I wouldn’t say these things unless I thought them,” and “I am racist deep down” are deeply upsetting for me, and show there is still so much to do.

The negative responses only go to show the importance of people seeing the film and understanding more about an incredibly complex neurological condition. I had an expectation that the BBC would physically control the sound at the awards on Sunday. I was so far from the stage. From the lack of response from the early presenters to my tics, and with no one turning around to look at me, I assumed, like everyone else, that I could not be heard on the stage.

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The only time I became aware that my tic had reached the stage was when Delroy and Michael B. Jordan appeared to look up from their role as presenters, and soon after that I decided to leave the auditorium.

Finally, is there any language you’d ask us to avoid — words like “outburst” or “uncontrollable” — in favor of something more accurate?

It’s important not to use the word “disability.” This is considered a “condition” by the Tourette’s community. I would prefer phrasing such as: “I have lived with the condition …”

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Russian ‘dark fleet’ tanker believed to be delivering oil to Cuba, detected off US coast amid Trump ban

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Russian ‘dark fleet’ tanker believed to be delivering oil to Cuba, detected off US coast amid Trump ban

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A tanker allegedly carrying Russian fuel en route to Cuba is using deceptive “dark fleet” tactics, including signal manipulation and offshore ship-to-ship transfers, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward.

According to MarineTraffic, the vessel, called Sea Horse, was located Tuesday on the U.S. East Coast with its signal, noted as “roaming.” 

The move comes as the U.S. pressured Cuba’s fuel supplies, disrupting deliveries and targeting third-party countries that provide oil, following new sanctions and the detention of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.

On Jan. 29, President Donald Trump also signed an executive order declaring a national emergency with respect to Cuba and authorizing tariffs on imports from countries that sell or supply oil there.

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Windward reported that the Russian oil tanker initially broadcast Havana as its destination on Feb. 7, and was “Hong Kong-flagged” before quietly changing tack. Windward said the tanker had an expected arrival in Cuba in early March.

The Gabon-flagged crude oil tanker NS Concord at the Port of Matanzas in Matanzas, Cuba, on Saturday, March 30, 2024. (Yander Zamora/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The vessel altered its Automatic Identification System (AIS) signal to show it would arrive in the “Caribbean Sea” within two weeks — a vague designation the firm said is often used to hide a ship’s final port of call.

The destination was later switched again to Gibraltar for orders, even after the tanker had already transited the strait, a move Windward described as inconsistent with standard commercial routing.

Windward’s analysis also suggests the vessel loaded its cargo through a ship-to-ship (STS) transfer conducted offshore near Cyprus.

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RUSSIAN OIL TANKER ‘THE GRINCH’ INTERCEPTED AS US, ALLIES ESCALATE SANCTIONS CRACKDOWN

A tanker sailing under the flag of Cuba, arrives at the port of Havana on Feb. 9.  (Yamil Lage / AFP via Getty Images)

During the loading process, the tanker’s AIS signal was temporarily switched off — “a tactic of deceptive maritime operations designed to avoid regulatory scrutiny,” Windward said.

Windward data also shows the vessel’s draft increased on Feb. 8, several days after leaving an area used for floating storage and transshipment of Russian middle distillate cargoes originating from Black Sea ports.

The tanker had loitered in that zone for roughly two weeks before departing, Windward said.

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“Ship-to-ship transfers outside territorial waters, where port-state oversight is limited, have become a common practice in oil trade to circumvent sanctions and regulatory scrutiny,” Windward noted.

‘IRREGULAR’ ARMED GUARDS ABOARD RUSSIAN SHADOW TANKERS ALARM NORDIC-BALTIC GOVERNMENTS

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, right, with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel in 2024. (Gaby Oraa/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The company added that AIS manipulation, offshore transfers and ambiguous destination reporting are now standard features of shadow-fleet activity sustaining Russian oil exports despite any U.S. sanctions.

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Cuba is also facing an energy crisis that has worsened in recent weeks after oil shipments from Venezuela, its primary supplier, were halted following U.S. action in early January.

Mexico, another major supplier, also suspended oil shipments, according to The Associated Press.

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US forces interdict another fugitive tanker ship in Indian Ocean
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EU Commission urges MEPs to pass EU-US deal despite fresh tariffs

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EU Commission urges MEPs to pass EU-US deal despite fresh tariffs

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EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič urged lawmakers on Tuesday to move ahead with the EU-US trade pact even as Washington piles on new tariffs and legal uncertainty puts the agreement’s terms in doubt.

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The deal was abruptly frozen Monday after a ruling by the United States Supreme Court declared most of the tariffs imposed worldwide by the White House in 2025 illegal. Shortly after the ruling, US President Donald Trump announced new 10% duties on imports from US allies, including the EU.

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“It is imperative we keep the process moving forward in implementing our commitments,” Šefčovič told MEPs. “A vote in plenary in March must remain our target, under the condition, of course, that we get more clarity from the US.”

Šefčovič also said his US counterparts had called him as of Saturday to “reassure” him that they will “stick” to the agreement if the EU “respect the deal.”

Commission pushes for vote

But the deal, clinched in July 2025 by Trump and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen after weeks of trade brinkmanship, now hangs in the balance, and requires the approval of the European Parliament to enter into force.

Euronews has learned that during a meeting with European Parliament negotiators on Monday, Šefčovič pressed MEPs to proceed with a vote, arguing the EU should not hand Washington an argument that Brussels is failing to deliver.

Widely seen in Brussels as lopsided, the deal maintains 15% US tariffs on EU goods while the bloc scraps its own tariffs on US goods altogether and commits to invest hundreds of billions of euros in the US.

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Since the Supreme Court ruling and the fallout in Washington, the European Commission has urged the White House to honour the deal and sought clarity on the next steps, as well as on the duration and scope of the new tariffs Trump announced after the ruling.

“Whatever was covered by the deal from July last year should still be covered,” Commission Chief Spokesperson Paula Pinho said.

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