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What are El Niño and La Niña and what's predicted for 2025?

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What are El Niño and La Niña and what's predicted for 2025?

Scientists say that while La Niña conditions could emerge to slightly cool global temperatures in 2025, the planet is still warming at an alarmingly rapid rate.

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The past year is certain to be the hottest on record, according to European scientists, and the first to see average global temperatures surpass the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period.

Soaring temperatures in 2024 were partly boosted by climate conditions known as El Niño (Spanish for “the boy”), according to the World Meteorological Organisation’s data analysis.

In 2025, another phenomenon known as La Niña (Spanish for “the girl”) could emerge to slightly cool global temperatures, meaning it looks unlikely that the 2024 temperature record will be broken next year.

But despite this, 2025 is still likely to be among the three hottest years on record, according to the UK’s weather and climate agency, the Met Office.

What are El Niño and La Niña?

El Niño and La Niña are two opposing climate conditions in the Pacific Ocean that affect the weather across the globe.

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Trade winds in the Pacific tend to blow from east to west, pushing warm surface waters towards the western Pacific.

El Niño occurs when these winds weaken or reverse, making the waters in the eastern Pacific – off the coast of the Americas – warmer than normal.

In La Niña periods, the east-to-west trade winds become stronger, pushing warm waters further west towards the coasts of Australia and south-east Asia. This causes cold water to ‘upwell’ or rise from the depths of the ocean, making sea surface temperatures cooler on average, particularly in the Americas.

The episodes happen at irregular intervals every two to seven years, and usually last nine to 12 months.

Both El Niño and La Niña can affect weather patterns across the world. Although each episode is different, La Niña is associated with rainier-than-normal conditions in several parts of the world, such as northern Australia, south-eastern Africa and northern Brazil. It can also make flooding more likely in some regions, and cause a more intense hurricane season.

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What are scientists predicting for 2025?

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says La Niña conditions could emerge between November 2024 and February 2025.

But its cooling impact on global temperatures could be “weak and short-lived”, the WMO says.

“Since June 2023 we have seen an extended streak of exceptional global land and sea surface temperature. Even if a short-term cooling La Niña event does emerge, it will not change the long-term trajectory of rising global temperatures due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said.

In fact, meteorologists say the temperature forecasts for 2025 are extremely high considering the probability of La Niña conditions.

“Years such as 2025 which aren’t dominated by the warming influence of El Niño, should be cooler. 2016 was an El Niño year and at the time it was the warmest year on record for global temperature. In comparison to our forecast for 2025 though, 2016 is now looking decidedly cool,” according to Professor Adam Scaife, who leads the UK Met Office’s global forecast for 2025.

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Paris Agreement not (yet) breached

It looks likely that 2024 temperatures will for the first time exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times, a benchmark set by the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement for the first time.

But passing that threshold for one year is not considered a breach of the Paris threshold. Scientists say that the threshold would need to be breached persistently, over a period as long as 20-30 years.

Some scientists say the link between climate change and the phenomena of La Niña and El Niño is not entirely clear.

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Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm sues his parents, accuses them of misusing his money

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Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm sues his parents, accuses them of misusing his money

PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Philadelphia Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm has sued his parents for millions of dollars, accusing them of siphoning large amounts of his money into financial accounts they managed for him and then using some of the cash to pay their own expenses.

Bohm’s lawsuit, filed Wednesday in a Philadelphia court, comes after he began to review his personal and financial affairs in recent months, and said that his parents refused to give him access to the accounts or provide him with the information he sought about them.

They sought to “freeze” him out of four accounts — established as limited liability companies — and he now believes they “converted a sizeable amount” of his money from those accounts “to their own use,” the lawsuit said.

By the time he sought the information, his parents had already transferred millions of dollars from his personal accounts to the accounts they controlled, the lawsuit said.

Bohm’s parents, Daniel and Lisa Bohm, denied doing anything wrong and, through their lawyer, said they are “deeply saddened by the allegations” and will aggressively defend themselves. Alec Bohm has had full access to the accounts and his parents are paying his expenses on their personal credit cards, their lawyer, Robert Eckard, said in a statement.

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Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal throws during the first inning in Game 5 of baseball's American League Division Series against the Seattle Mariners, Oct. 10, 2025, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson, File)

“Mr. and Mrs. Bohm love their son very much and have always acted in his best interests, both personally and professionally, and still do so to this day,” Eckard said.

After Thursday’s 2026 season opening game, Bohm declined comment to reporters, saying “I’m not going to address any personal matters right now.”

Both parties say the first of the accounts was opened in 2019. His parents told him that they assigned themselves a 10% stake, strictly for administration purposes, and that Bohm was the “true” owner of all of the LLC’s assets, Bohm’s lawsuit said.

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The accounts had various purposes, such as investing in securities or buying real estate. Bohm’s lawsuit also said they used money from The Alec Bohm Foundation to pay their expenses.

Bohm’s lawsuit asks his parents to pay at least $3 million in damages, hand over control of the accounts and hire an accountant to track every dollar they transferred from Bohm’s personal accounts to the accounts they controlled.

Bohm, 29, has a $10.2 million contract with the Phillies for the 2026 baseball season. The lawsuit said his parents live in a recreational vehicle and travel the country.

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Rubio meets G7 ministers in France as US leads on Iran — allies under fire for tepid response

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Rubio meets G7 ministers in France as US leads on Iran — allies under fire for tepid response

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in France on Friday to attend the G7 foreign ministers meeting where he will deliver a clear message on U.S. priorities for the ongoing war with Iran.

In the days leading up to the meeting, other members have taken markedly different approaches to the war. Nearly all of Washington’s partners — Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan — have reacted cautiously to the U.S.-Israeli military campaign and declined to participate in offensive operations, even as they condemn Iranian actions.

Before departing on Thursday, Rubio signaled a defiant approach to the talks: “I don’t work for France or Germany or Japan… the people I’m interested in making happy are the people of the United States. I work for them,” he said in a video posted on X.

The divergence has drawn frustration from President Donald Trump, who has pressed allies to contribute more, particularly in securing key maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. While some countries have signaled a willingness to support defensive or maritime security efforts, they have stopped short of joining direct military strikes.

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TRUMP PRESSES NATO PARTNERS ON SUPPORT AS HEGSETH BLASTS HESITATION

“The U.S. is constantly asked to help in wars and we have. But when we had a need, it didn’t get positive responses from NATO. A couple leaders said that Iran was not Europe’s war. Well, Ukraine isn’t our war, yet we’ve contributed more to that fight than anyone,” Rubio added.

“The Strait of Hormuz could be open tomorrow if Iran stops threatening global shipping, which is an outrage and a violation of international law. For all these countries that care about international law, they should be doing something about it,” he said before boarding his plane to France.

The remarks set the tone for a summit already marked by growing friction between Washington and some of its closest allies over how to handle the Iran conflict. Rubio has framed the stakes in stark terms. “Iran has been at war with the United States for 47 years… Iran has been killing Americans and attacking Americans across this planet,” he said during a White House cabinet meeting, adding that allowing Tehran to obtain nuclear weapons would be “an unacceptable risk for the world.”

But even before Rubio arrived at the meeting, European officials were signaling a markedly different approach.

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“We need to exit from the war, not escalate this further, because the consequences for everybody around the world are quite severe,” Vice President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas said during a briefing on the sidelines of the G7 on Thursday.

JACK KEANE CALLS OUT NATO’S WEAKNESS AS SHIPPING CRISIS GRIPS STRAIT OF HORMUZ

(L/R, clockwise) French President Emmanuel Macron, European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, US Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni meet during the Group of Seven (G7) Summit at the Pomeroy Kananaskis Mountain Lodge in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada on June 17, 2025 (LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP via Getty Images)

“It can only be a diplomatic solution… sit down and negotiate to have a way out,” she added.

The contrast between Rubio’s framing and Kallas’s message captures the core tension shaping the meeting.

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U.S. officials say Rubio is heading into the talks with a broader agenda that goes beyond Iran.

According to a State Department spokesperson, who spoke to Fox News Digital on background, Rubio will use the meeting to “advance key U.S. interests” and push discussions on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as “international burden sharing” and the overall effectiveness of the G7.

The U.S. is also expected to emphasize maritime security, including freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, while urging allies to take on a greater share of responsibilities in conflict zones and international organizations, the spokesperson said.

RUBIO, RATCLIFFE TO DELIVER CLASSIFIED IRAN BRIEFING TO ‘GANG OF EIGHT’ AHEAD OF TRUMP’S STATE OF THE UNION

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks to reporters before boarding a plane as he is headed to France where he will take part in the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting, at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, U.S., March 26, 2026.  (Brendan Smialowski/Pool via Reuters)

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European officials have instead emphasized the broader risks of the conflict.

France’s foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, said discussions at the G7 would build on a recent joint statement condemning Iran’s actions while also addressing maritime security concerns.

He said the “discussions will provide an opportunity to revisit positions already agreed at the G7 level… including the unjustifiable attacks carried out by Iran against Gulf countries… which we condemned in the strongest possible terms.”

Barrot added that ministers would also focus on securing global shipping routes.

A satellite image shows the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, vital for global energy supply. (Amanda Macias/Fox News Digital)

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“We will also have the opportunity to address maritime security and freedom of navigation… including an international mission… to ensure the smooth flow of maritime traffic in a strictly defensive posture, thereby helping to ease pressure on energy prices,” he said.

Kallas echoed that global framing. “All the countries in the world are one way or another affected by this war… it is in the interest of everybody that this war stops,” she said.

IRAN SIGNALS NUCLEAR PROGRESS IN GENEVA AS TRUMP CALLS FOR FULL DISMANTLEMENT

Kaja Kallas, High Representative of the European Union (EU) for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy speaks to the press during EU Summit in Brussels, Belgium on Dec. 19, 2024.  (Photo by Nicolas Landemard/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Her remarks also pointed to the interconnected nature of the crisis. “Russia is helping Iran with intelligence… and also supporting Iran now with drones,” she said, linking the Iran conflict to the war in Ukraine.

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That uncertainty is already affecting the structure of the summit, with officials dropping plans for a unified final communiqué to avoid exposing divisions, Reuters reported.

Analysts say those differences reflect deeper structural tensions in the alliance. “Europe has criticized Donald Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ strategy towards Iran while pursuing a failed diplomatic approach that has enabled the regime to expand its terrorist networks and edge closer to nuclear threshold status,” Barak Seener, senior research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, told Fox News Digital.

“This reflects a lack of European capability to project power in the region, particularly in safeguarding the Strait of Hormuz.”

FILE PHOTO: Cargo ships in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from northern Ras al-Khaimah, near the border with Oman’s Musandam governance, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in United Arab Emirates, March 11, 2026. (REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo/File Photo)

Seener added that years of reliance on Washington have left Europe increasingly exposed as the U.S. shifts its strategic priorities. “Years of underinvestment in defense and reliance on the United States have created a dependency that Washington increasingly views as a betrayal of the peace it has guaranteed Europe since the Second World War,” he said.

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“With the U.S. placing greater value on its relationship with Israel than NATO, the result may be further erosion of the alliance, reduced support for Ukraine and rising economic pressure on Europe.”

He warned that the immediate test will come at the G7 itself. “Divisions over how to respond to Iran and to any U.S. request for support are likely to expose a deeper transatlantic split,” Seener said.

“Operation Epic Fury has showcased President Trump’s ability to assemble a coalition of allies to eliminate a common threat — in this case the Iranian regime — and stabilize international trade,” Jacob Olidort, chief research officer and director of American security at the America First Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital.

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A satellite view shows the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, on Oct. 2, 2024. (Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data via Getty Images)

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“The failure of Western Europe to participate in securing the Strait of Hormuz is particularly egregious because those countries depend on it more than we do,” he added.

“At the same time, the historic successes of Operation Epic Fury have awakened a new confidence in our Middle East partners to eradicate the threats from the Iranian regime and to work together to shape a more peaceful and prosperous region.”

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Rubio joins crucial G7 talks as Iran war set to dominate second day

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Rubio joins crucial G7 talks as Iran war set to dominate second day

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On today’s show:

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Top story: G7 Summit debrief with Méabh Mc Mahon and Maia de la Baume.

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Explainer by Jakub Janas: What’s the point of the G7 meeting?

Iran war update with Méabh Mc Mahon and Babak Kamiar.

Interview with Ghassan Salamé, Lebanese Culture Minister.

Interview with Valérie Hayer, Member of the European Parliament (Renew Europe, France).

When and where to watch Europe Today?

You can join Euronews’ chief anchor Méabh Mc Mahon and our EU editor Maria Tadeo live on TV and Euronews’ website and digital platforms every weekday.

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