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Wagner revolt in Russia dims outlook for its operations in Africa

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Wagner revolt in Russia dims outlook for its operations in Africa

A revolt by the Wagner force in Russia poses a diplomatic quandary for Mali and Central African Republic (CAR), where forces from the mercenary group have played an increasingly central role in long-running internal conflicts.

As the Wagner fighters barrelled towards Moscow on Saturday after seizing a southern city overnight, spokespeople for the governments of Mali and CAR declined to comment on the turmoil and how it might affect their security strategies against armed groups.

Both countries have sought closer ties with Russia and military support to battle the armed fighters, saying in the past that their military cooperation agreements are with Russia rather than with Wagner.

“[Wagner’s] presence in Mali is sponsored by the Kremlin and if Wagner is at odds with the Kremlin … naturally Mali will suffer the consequences on the security front,” said Malian political analyst Bassirou Doumbia.

Mali, where military authorities seized power in coups in 2020 and 2021, is battling a years-long operation against armed groups affiliated with ISIL (ISIS) and al-Qaeda. It has said Russian forces there are not Wagner mercenaries but trainers helping local troops with equipment bought from Russia.

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But the alliance has soured relations with the United Nations and alienated Western powers, who have said the fighters are Wagner forces and have alleged that they have committed possible war crimes alongside Malian soldiers.

The governments in Mali and Russia have denied the allegations.

Wagner’s continued presence in Mali amid the continuing insurrection in Russia could prove problematic for Bamako’s relations with Moscow, which last year committed to send Mali shipments of fuel, fertiliser and food worth about $100m.

“[The] exact consequences for Mali really depend on factors largely unknown such as the organisational autonomy of Wagner and their chain of command, and, of course, whether things escalate or not between [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and Wagner,” said Yvan Guichaoua, senior lecturer at the Brussels School of International Studies.

He said there were no reports of unexpected troop movements in Mali as of Saturday morning.

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Men wearing military camouflage stand at the entrance of the PMC Wagner Centre, which is associated with the founder of the Wagner private military group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, during the official opening of the office block on National Unity Day, in St Petersburg, Russia, November 4, 2022 [File: AP Photo]

Rebel insurgencies

The power struggle in Russia could also have significant ramifications for CAR, where hundreds of Russian operatives, including many from Wagner, have been helping the government fight several rebel insurgencies since 2018.

Both CAR and Mali have been drawn increasingly into Russia’s orbit in recent years as the Kremlin sought greater influence in Francophone Africa to the dismay of former colonial power France, which has faced anti-French protests in the region and worsening relations with several West African governments.

In February, French President Emmanuel Macron described the deployment of Wagner troops in Africa as the “life insurance of failing regimes in Africa” that will only sow misery.

A suspension of Wagner operations in Africa could impact the group’s finances. The United States last October accused the mercenaries of exploiting natural resources in CAR, Mali and elsewhere to fund fighting in Ukraine – a charge Russia rejected at the time.

Interactive_WagnerGroup_chief
(Al Jazeera)

Wagner began operating in Africa and the Middle East when it was founded in 2014 and was thought to have about 5,000 fighters, but has grown significantly since then.

The paramilitary group made a name for itself internationally through its involvement in Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014, a move widely viewed as illegal by the international community.

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The group has also been involved in the continuing Russia-Ukraine war that began in February 2022 after Wagner forces were deployed in Ukraine on March 28, 2022. The group has 50,000 active fighters in Ukraine, according to British intelligence.

According to the US National Security Council, while about 80 percent of its troops in Ukraine were withdrawn from prisons, it was stated that Wagner was effective in Russia’s alleged capture of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region.

Wagner has also sent fighters outside Ukraine to various conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, including the war in Syria. The group has cemented strong ties with several African governments over the past decade with operations in at least eight African nations, according to leaked US documents.

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GameStop is becoming a poorly run bank

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GameStop is becoming a poorly run bank
GameStop’s actual business – selling video games and associated paraphernalia – isn’t doing so hot. Its other business – earning interest on cash that was handed over irrationally – is helping. But that makes GameStop more akin to a bank than a retailer. Shareholders would be better off sticking with an actual savings account.
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WikiLeaks’ Assange is free after pleading guilty in deal with Justice Department

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WikiLeaks’ Assange is free after pleading guilty in deal with Justice Department

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WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange pleaded guilty Tuesday in connection with a deal with federal prosecutors to close a drawn-out legal saga related to the leaking of military secrets that raised divisive questions about press freedom, national security and the traditional bounds of journalism.

The plea to a single count of conspiring to obtain and disclose information related to the national defense was entered Wednesday morning in federal court in Saipan, the capital of the Northern Mariana Islands, an American territory in the Pacific.

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WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, second from right, arrives at the United States courthouse where he is expected to enter a plea deal in Saipan, Mariana Islands, Wednesday, June 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko) (AP )

Assange said that he believed that the Espionage Act under which he was charged contradicted his First Amendment rights but that he accepted that encouraging sources to provide classified information for publication can be unlawful.

“I believe the First Amendment and the Espionage Act are in contradiction with each other but I accept that it would be difficult to win such a case given all these circumstances,” he reportedly said in court. 

Under the terms of the deal, Assange is permitted to return to his native Australia without spending any time in an American prison. He had been jailed in the United Kingdom for the last five years, while fighting extradition to the United States.

A conviction could have resulted in a lengthy prison sentence. 

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AUSTRALIAN LAWMAKERS SEND LETTER URGING BIDEN TO DROP CASE AGAINST JULIAN ASSANGE ON WORLD PRESS FREEDOM DAY

Julian Assange after being released from prison

Screen grab taken from the X account of WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange following his release from prison on Tuesday June 25, 2024. Assange has arrived in Saipan ahead of an expected guilty plea in a deal with the U.S. Justice Department that will set him free to return home to Australia. (@WikiLeaks, via AP)

WikiLeaks, the secret-spilling website that Assange founded in 2006, applauded the announcement of the deal, saying it was grateful for “all who stood by us, fought for us, and remained utterly committed in the fight for his freedom.”

Federal prosecutors said Assange conspired with Chelsea Manning, then a U.S. Army intelligence analyst, to steal diplomatic cables and military files published in 2010 by WikiLeaks. Prosecutors had accused Assange of damaging national security by publishing documents that harmed the U.S. and its allies and aided its adversaries.

Manning was sentenced to 35 years in prison. President Barack Obama commuted the sentence in 2017 in the final days of his presidency.

Assange has been celebrated by free press advocates as a transparency crusader but heavily criticized by national security hawks who say he put lives at risk and operated far beyond the bounds of journalism.  

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SUPPORTERS OF JULIAN ASSANGE RALLY AT JUSTICE DEPT. ON 4-YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF DETAINMENT

Julian Assange boarding a plane

Julian Assange seen boarding an airplane. (Getty Images)

Weeks after the 2010 document cache, Swedish prosecutors issued an arrest warrant for Assange for allegedly raping a woman and an allegation of molestation. The case was later dropped. Assange has always maintained his innocence. 

In 2012, he took refuge in the Ecuadorian Embassy in London, where he claimed asylum on the grounds of political persecution, and spent the following seven years in self-exile there. 

The Ecuadorian government in 2019 allowed the British police to arrest Assange and he remained in custody for the next five years while fighting extradition to the U.S. 

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The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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France elections: Germans prepare for seismic change in EU politics

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France elections: Germans prepare for seismic change in EU politics

As France gears up for the shocking snap elections that French President Emmanuel Macron called during the EU elections, Germans are preparing for a seismic change in EU politics.

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With the upcoming French elections just around the corner, Germany is bracing itself for the results, which are expected to swing to the right.

Climate, migration and gender equality policies are likely to be affected on a national level in France if far-right Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party wins. Yet, political scientist Prof Dr Miriam Hartlapp warned the effects could ripple across the European Union.

“Policymaking in Brussels will change because members of this right-wing populist party could sit in the Council of Ministers. This creates a different situation for countries like Germany and other European nations,” Hartlapp said.

“France is not a small member state, but a large and important one. We can expect that European climate policy, asylum and migration policy, and gender equality policy at the European level will then look different,” she added.

Hartlapp said the swing to the right has spread across Europe as the dissatisfaction with current governments is reflected in the political climate.

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Germans are aware of the changes and this “causes concern,” Harlapp said, pointing at German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s recent interview where he said he hopes “that parties that are not [Marine] Le Pen, to put it that way, are successful in the election. But that is for the French people to decide.”

Hartlapp added that the EU can expect immigration-related cases to be brought to the European Court of Justice.

“Some points in the National Rally‘s program clearly contradict the fundamental rights of the European constitution. For example, immigrants in France not having the same rights as French citizens when it comes to housing and social benefits. This directly contradicts EU law,” she said.

Meanwhile, in Germany, individual politicians from the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) and extreme-right Die Heimat announced their plans to form factions in the eastern state of Brandenburg this week, after AfD outperformed all of the parties in the ruling coalition government during the EU elections.

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