Iran’s negotiating posture has hardened sharply since the war began, with the Revolutionary ‌Guards exerting growing influence over decision-making, and it will demand significant concessions from the United States if mediation efforts lead to serious negotiations, three senior sources in Tehran said.

In any talks with the U.S., Iran would not only demand an end to the war but concessions that are likely red lines for U.S. President Donald Trump – guarantees against future military action, compensation for wartime losses and formal control of the Strait of Hormuz, the sources said.


Iran would also refuse to negotiate any limitations to its ballistic missile programme, they said, an issue that had been a red line for Tehran during the talks that were taking place when the U.S. and Israel launched their attack last month.

Reuters

“Nobody knows who to talk to,” President Donald Trump said Tuesday at the White House, describing what he portrayed as both chaos and opportunity inside Iran’s leadership. “But we’re actually talking to the right people, and they want to make a deal so badly.” 

His remarks come as the U.S. claims it is engaged in talks with a “top” Iranian figure, even as Tehran publicly denies negotiations are taking place.

The question now is not just whether talks are happening, but whether anyone in Tehran has the authority to deliver. With strikes on senior Iranian leadership and growing internal fractures, Iran appears to be operating less like a centralized theocracy and more like a wartime system run by overlapping power centers, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at its core.

Here’s who matters now.

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The IRGC: The real power behind the state

Across intelligence assessments and recent reporting, one conclusion is consistent: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has emerged as the dominant force in Iran’s political system.

Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the current moment is accelerating a long-standing trend. 

“No doubt both the 12-Day war and this current conflict have trimmed the commanding heights of the Islamic Republic’s political and military leadership,” he said.  “But it has also expedited the trend lines inherent in Iranian politics, which is the dominance of the security forces and the ascendance of the IRGC.”

“Yes, there is more IRGC control over the state than ever before, but the state is weaker than ever before and more of a national security rump state than ever before,” he said. 

“It shouldn’t particularly preoccupy Washington, who is and isn’t offering negotiations,” Ben Taleblu added, “The preeminent preoccupation of Washington has to be working toward a military win at a political win, and that does not come by working with the IRGC, but actually beating them on the battlefield and supporting the forces’s most arrayed against them in Iran, which are the Iranian people.”

The command room: Supreme National Security Council

If the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the power in Iran, the Supreme National Security Council appears to be the mechanism through which that power is exercised.

The Supreme National Security Council is Iran’s top forum for coordinating military and foreign policy, bringing together senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and government officials under the authority of the supreme leader. It was established after the 1979 revolution and has played a central role in managing major crises, from nuclear negotiations to wartime operations.

Iran appointed Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander, as secretary of the council, reinforcing its central role in coordinating military and political decisions, Reuters reported Tuesday.

A Middle Eastern official source with knowledge of the system described the structure:

“Right now, the power is in the hands of the IRGC,” the source said. “The Supreme National Security Council makes the decisions, of course, with the backing of the majority of IRGC commanders.”

Mojtabā Khamenei: The supreme leader in name

Formally, Iran’s system centers on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. But his actual grip on power remains uncertain.

Khamenei inherited the position’s sweeping authority following his father’s death, but “lacks the automatic authority enjoyed by his father,” the Middle Eastern official said.

Moreover, he has not appeared publicly since taking power and only has issued written statements, raising questions about both his health and his ability to govern, after reportedly being injured in the initial Feb. 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father and other senior Iranian leaders.

Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, suggested his role may currently be limited: “For the time being, since Mojtaba has been injured, it seems he’s a hologram and not holding power. However, if Mojtaba recovers, he will be involved in ruling Iran. He is not just a figurehead. But anyhow, for the time being, the control of Iran is in the hands of the revolutionary guards.”

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Ghalibaf: The man at the center of Trump’s claim

Trump’s statement that he is speaking to a “top person” has focused attention on one name in particular: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

The White House is quietly exploring Ghalibaf as a potential interlocutor and even a possible future leader, Axios reported.

A former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander and current parliament speaker, Ghalibaf represents a hybrid figure inside the system, bridging military credentials and political authority.

He was one of the key security figures involved in the crackdown on student protests in July 1999 and has run for president four times since 2005.

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Ghalibaf is expected to meet U.S. special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in the capital of Pakistan as early as the end of this week.

Ben Taleblu said: “Those who see the ascendants of someone like Ghalibaf, who is an IRGC veteran, having extended power outside his traditional civilian rule, have missed the decades of how personality, not profession, has been the driving force, has been a driving force in Iranian politics for the past few decades. I would also say those who worry about the IRGC background of the Supreme National Security Council are all that in Iran today, may have missed the fact that the past few Supreme National Security Council Secretaries, Shamkhani, Larijani, Ahmadian, all also had IRGC backgrounds.”

At the same time, Ghalibaf has publicly denied engaging in talks with the United States, and no direct confirmation of negotiations has been provided by either side.

Araqchi: The diplomat carrying messages

Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi remains one of the most visible figures internationally.

If talks were to take place, Araqchi likely would be part of the Iranian delegation alongside Ghalibaf, Reuters reported.

But analysts caution that his role is limited. He may act as a channel for communication, but does not set policy independently. 

Strategic decisions, particularly on war and negotiations, are still shaped by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the broader security establishment.

The wider power circle: generals, clerics and enforcers

Beyond the headline figures, a broader group of officials who continue to shape Iran’s direction can be identified.

These include Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Ahmad Vahidi, Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani, naval commander Alireza Tangsiri, Judiciary Chief Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and senior clerical and political figures such as Saeed Jalili and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi.

Each represents a different pillar of the system: military power, regional proxy operations, control of strategic waterways, internal repression and religious legitimacy.

Together, they form what analysts describe as a fragmented but resilient governing network.

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Despite internal divisions, Iran’s leadership remains united on one core objective: survival of the regime.

Kuperwasser described the split: “There are the more pragmatic elites, like Araghchi, Rouhani, and Zarif. There are also the hardliners who have usually held the upper hand … But they are united in one issue — that the regime should survive and stay in power.”
Iran’s U.N. mission did not respond to a request for comment in time for publication. 

Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, ex-IRGC commander, to replace late Ali Larijani as chief of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

Iran has named Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, a former commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as the successor to Ali Larijani, head of the country’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), who was killed in a US-Israeli air strike earlier this month.

President Masoud Pezeshkian’s deputy of communications announced the appointment on X on Tuesday.

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The SNSC, formally chaired by Pezeshkian, coordinates security and foreign policy and includes top military, intelligence and government officials, in addition to representatives of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

Zolghadr, who served in the 1980s war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, went on to become head of the IRGC’s joint staff for eight years and then deputy commander-in-chief of the elite force for another eight years.

In 2005, he was named deputy interior minister for security and police in the government of then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a move that was seen at the time as bolstering the IRGC’s influence in politics.

Since 2023, he has been the secretary of the Expediency Council, a powerful body that plays both an advisory and mediating role between Iran’s various power structures and the supreme leader.

Zolghadr’s new position consolidates the IRGC’s growing clout in Iran amid growing uncertainty regarding decision-making at the top of the system. Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since he succeeded his assassinated father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in early March.

Larijani, one of the most prominent non-clerical figures in Iranian politics, was killed last Tuesday in a week that saw the war spiralling throughout the region, upending global energy markets and roiling the world economy.

On Tuesday, the war showed no sign of de-escalation after US President Donald Trump’s claim that he was speaking to an unidentified “top person”, as he extended by five days a deadline to hit Iran’s power plants.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said “no negotiations” were under way, accusing Trump of seeking “to manipulate the financial and oil markets”.