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Netanyahu mulls plan to empty northern Gaza of civilians and cut off aid to those left inside

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Netanyahu mulls plan to empty northern Gaza of civilians and cut off aid to those left inside

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is examining a plan to seal off humanitarian aid to northern Gaza in an attempt to starve out Hamas militants, a plan that, if implemented, could trap without food or water hundreds of thousands of Palestinians unwilling or unable to leave their homes.

Israel has issued many evacuation orders for the north throughout the yearlong war, the most recent of which was Sunday. The plan proposed to Netanyahu and the Israeli parliament by a group of retired generals would escalate the pressure, giving Palestinians a week to leave the northern third of the Gaza Strip, including Gaza City, before declaring it a closed military zone.

Those who remain would be considered combatants — meaning military regulations would allow troops to kill them — and denied food, water, medicine and fuel, according to a copy of the plan given to the Associated Press by its chief architect, who says the plan is the only way to break Hamas in the north and pressure it to release the remaining hostages.

The plan calls for Israel to maintain control over the north for an indefinite period to attempt to create a new administration without Hamas, splitting the Gaza Strip in two.

There has been no decision by the government to fully carry out the so-called “Generals’ Plan,” and it is unclear how strongly it is being considered.

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One official with knowledge of the matter said parts of the plan are already being implemented, without specifying which parts. A second official, who is Israeli, said Netanyahu “had read and studied” the plan, “like many plans that have reached him throughout the war,” but did not say whether any of it had been adopted. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the plan is not supposed to be discussed publicly.

On Sunday, Israel launched an offensive against Hamas fighters in the Jabaliya refugee camp north of the city. No trucks of food, water or medicine have entered the north since Sept. 30, according to the U.N. and the website of the Israeli military agency overseeing humanitarian aid crossings.

The State Department spokesperson has said the United States is against any plan that would bring direct Israeli occupation in Gaza.

Human rights groups fear the plan’s potential toll on civilians

Human rights groups say the plan would likely starve civilians and that it flies in the face of international law, which prohibits using food as a weapon and forcible transfers. Accusations that Israel is intentionally limiting food to Gaza are central to the genocide case brought against it at the International Court of Justice, charges Israel denies.

So far, very few Palestinians have heeded the latest evacuation order. Some are elderly, sick or afraid to leave their homes, but many fear there’s nowhere safe to go and that they will never be allowed back. Israel has prevented those who fled earlier in the war from returning.

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“All Gazans are afraid of the plan,” said Jomana Elkhalili, a 26-year-old Palestinian aid worker for Oxfam living in Gaza City with her family.

“Still, they will not flee. They will not make the mistake again … We know the place there is not safe,” she said, referring to southern Gaza, where most of the population is huddled in dismal tent camps and airstrikes often hit shelters. “That’s why people in the north say it’s better to die than to leave.”

The plan has emerged as Hamas has shown enduring strength, firing rockets into Tel Aviv and regrouping in areas after Israeli troops withdraw, bringing repeated offensives.

After a year of devastating war with Hamas, Israel has far fewer ground troops in Gaza than it did a few months ago and in recent weeks has turned its attention to Hezbollah, launching an invasion of southern Lebanon. There is no sign of progress on a cease-fire in either front.

Israel’s offensive on the strip has killed over 42,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants, but says over half of the dead are women and children.

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People in northern Gaza could be forced to “surrender or starve”

The Generals’ Plan was presented to the parliament last month by a group of retired generals and high-ranking officers, according to publicly available minutes. Since then, officials from the prime minister’s office called seeking more details, according to its chief architect, Giora Eiland, a former head of the National Security Council.

Israeli media reported that Netanyahu told a closed parliamentary defense committee session that he was considering the plan.

Eiland said the only way to stop Hamas and bring an end to the yearlong war is to prevent its access to aid.

“They will either have to surrender or to starve,” Eiland said. “It doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re going to kill every person,” he said. “It will not be necessary. People will not be able to live there (the north). The water will dry up.”

He believes the siege could force Hamas to release some 100 Israeli hostages still being held by the group since its Oct. 7 attack that triggered Israel’s campaign. At least 30 of the hostages are presumed dead.

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Human rights groups are appalled.

“I’m most concerned by how the plan seems to say that if the population is given a chance to evacuate and they don’t, then somehow they all turn into legitimate military targets, which is absolutely not the case,” said Tania Hary, executive director of Gisha, an Israeli organization dedicated to protecting Palestinians’ right to move freely within Gaza.

The copy of the plan shared with AP says that if the strategy is successful in northern Gaza it could then be replicated in other areas, including tent camps further to the south sheltering hundreds of thousands of Palestinians.

When asked about the plan Wednesday, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said the U.S. was going to “make absolutely clear that it’s not just the United States that opposes any occupation of Gaza, any reduction in the size of Gaza, but it is the virtual unanimous opinion of the international community.”

In northern Gaza, aid has dried up and people are trapped

The north, including Gaza City, was the initial target of Israel’s ground offensive early in the war, when it first ordered everyone there to leave. Entire neighborhoods have been reduced to rubble since then.

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A senior U.N. official said no aid, except for one small shipment of fuel for hospitals, has entered the north since Sept. 30, whether through crossings from Israel or from southern Gaza. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential information.

COGAT, the Israeli body facilitating aid crossings into Gaza, denied that crossings to the north have been closed but did not respond when asked how many trucks have entered in recent days.

The U.N. official said only about 100 Palestinians have fled the north since Sunday.

“At least 400,000 people are trapped in the area,” Philippe Lazzarini, head of the U.N.’s agency for Palestinian refugees, wrote on X Thursday. “With almost no basic supplies available, hunger is spreading.”

Troops have already cut off roads between Gaza City and areas further north, making it difficult for people to flee, said two doctors in the far north – Mohammed Salha, director of al-Awda Hospital, and Dr. Rana Soloh, at Kamal Adwan Hospital.

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“North Gaza is now divided into two parts,” Soloh said. “There are checkpoints and inspections, and not everyone can cross easily.” ___

Associated Press writer Melanie Lidman in Jerusalem contributed to this report.

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Cyberattack hits Canvas system used by thousands of schools as finals loom

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Cyberattack hits Canvas system used by thousands of schools as finals loom

A system that thousands of schools and universities use was offline Thursday during a cyberattack, creating chaos as students tried to study for finals and underscoring education’s dependence on technology.

The hacking group named ShinyHunters claimed responsibility for the breach at Canvas, said Luke Connolly, a threat analyst at the cybersecurity firm Emisoft. Instructure, the company behind Canvas, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment or questions about whether the system was taken down as a precaution or because the hackers knocked it offline.

Canvas is used to manage grades, course notes, assignments, lecture videos and more. The hacking group posted online that nearly 9,000 schools worldwide were affected, with billions of private messages and other records accessed, Connolly said.

Students quickly took to social media to ask if others were unable to access Canvas, with many panicking that they could no longer view course materials housed within the platform to study for their final exams.

Screen shots Connolly provided showed that the group began threatening Sunday to leak the trove of data, giving deadlines of Thursday and May 12. Connolly said the later date indicates that discussions regarding extortion payments may be ongoing.

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Rich in digitized data, the nation’s schools are prime targets for far-flung criminal hackers, who are assiduously locating and scooping up sensitive files that not long ago were committed to paper in locked cabinets. Past attacks have hit Minneapolis Public Schools and the Los Angeles Unified School District.

Instructure has not posted about the attack on its social media.

Connolly said the Canvas attack is strikingly similar to a breach at PowerSchool, which also offers learning management tools. In that case a Massachusetts college student was charged.

Connolly described ShinyHunters as a loose affiliation of teenagers and young adults based in the U.S. and the United Kingdom. The group also has been tied to a other attacks, including one aimed at Live Nation’s Ticketmaster subsidiary.

Universities and school districts quickly began notifying students and parents.

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“This is being reported as a national-level cyber-security incident,” the director of information technology at the University of Iowa’s College of Public Health wrote in announcing that the school’s online system was down. “Hopefully we will have a resolution soon.”

Virginia Tech acknowledged in a notice to students that the administration was aware of the effect on final exams and other end-of-semester activities. The University of New Mexico sent a similar message to the campus community, and the University of Florida urged students to stay alert for any phishing messages that appear to be from Canvas.

Teachers say they are having to find workarounds to help students study for exams and submit final assignments.

Damon Linker, a senior lecturer in the political science department at the University of Pennsylvania, said in a post on the social media platform X that his students had been relying on Canvas to access every reading from the semester and all of his lecture slides before their Monday final exams. The outage leaves students and faculty “dead in the water here in academia right now,” he said.

The student newspaper at Harvard reported that the system there was down as well. Students at Johns Hopkins University simply got an error message when trying to view their final grades on the platform Thursday. And public school districts also sought to reassure parents, with officials in Spokane, Washington, writing that they aren’t “aware of any sensitive data contained in this breach.”

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Some schools, such as the University of Texas at San Antonio, announced they were pushing back finals scheduled for Friday in response to the outage.

___

This story has been corrected to attribute a quote to the director of information technology at the University of Iowa’s College of Public Health, not the university’s broader information technology lead.

___

Associated Press journalist Hannah Schoenbaum in Salt Lake City contributed.

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Iranian dissidents seize on Trump remarks about armed resistance, fueling revival of Reagan doctrine

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Iranian dissidents seize on Trump remarks about armed resistance, fueling revival of Reagan doctrine

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After President Donald Trump suggested this week that Iranians “would fight back” if they had weapons, Iranian dissidents, military analysts and some Republican lawmakers are openly reviving a once-taboo question: should the West move beyond “maximum pressure” on Tehran and actively support armed resistance inside Iran?

“They have to have guns. And I think they’re getting some guns. As soon as they have guns, they’ll fight like, as good as anybody there is,” Trump said in an interview with “The Hugh Hewitt Show,” while discussing anti-regime unrest and the Iranian government’s crackdown on protesters.

The comments come as the Iranian regime emerges weakened from weeks of war, while frustration continues to simmer among many Iranians after years of failed protests and violent crackdowns by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

LINDSEY GRAHAM URGES US, ISRAEL TO ARM IRANIAN CIVILIANS IN ‘SECOND AMENDMENT SOLUTION’ TO TOPPLE REGIME

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Protesters rally in Washington, D.C., on March 7, 2026, supporting regime change in Iran following U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)

Supporters of a more aggressive approach argue sanctions, diplomacy and unarmed demonstrations have failed to produce meaningful change inside Iran and say the current moment may represent the best opportunity in decades to challenge the regime from within. Critics warn that openly discussing armed resistance could endanger protesters, deepen divisions inside the opposition and risk pushing Iran toward civil war.

The idea of armed resistance echoes aspects of the Reagan Doctrine, the Cold War-era strategy in which the U.S. backed anti-Soviet resistance movements around the world, from Afghanistan to Nicaragua.

“We need to give Iranians the tools now, and they’ll finish the job themselves,” Brett Velicovich, founder of Powerus and a former U.S. military and intelligence specialist focused on drone warfare, told Fox News Digital.

“It’s their time to do something. There has never been a better chance.”

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AS AIRSTRIKES RAIN DOWN ON THE IRANIAN REGIME, CAN A FRACTURED OPPOSITION UNITE TO LEAD IF IT FALLS?

Smoke and flames rise at an oil depot in Tehran after airstrikes on March 7, 2026. The United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, leading to Iranian missile retaliation and increased concerns about global energy and transport disruption. (Sasan/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

Velicovich described the strategy as “Reagan Doctrine 2.0,” updated for the age of drones and decentralized warfare.

“Cheap FPV drones, loitering munitions, and small arms let motivated fighters turn Iran’s streets and mountains into a nightmare for the IRGC,” he said. “This isn’t fantasy; it’s asymmetric warfare that works.”

He argued that modern drone technology has fundamentally changed the balance between governments and insurgent or resistance movements.

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“Drones democratize power,” Velicovich said. “The regime’s monopoly on violence ends the day the people get eyes in the sky and precision strike capability.”

IRANIAN KURDISH FIGHTERS SAY THEY’RE READY TO STRIKE TEHRAN, WAITING FOR OPENING

Iran is building a decentralized FPV drone capability in basement factories using Chinese parts, defense expert Cameron Chell warns, citing a potential threat to the U.S. homeland. (Getty)

Still, even some critics of the Iranian regime caution that the comparison to Cold War proxy movements has limits.

Unlike Soviet-controlled Eastern Europe or Afghanistan in the 1980s, Iran is a highly nationalistic country with a fragmented opposition and deep fears of foreign intervention following decades of conflict across the Middle East.

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Still, calls for more direct support for anti-regime forces are increasingly moving into mainstream Republican foreign policy discussions.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., recently called for what he described as a “Second Amendment solution” inside Iran.

“If I were President Trump and I were Israel, I would load the Iranian people up with weapons so they could go to the streets armed and turn the tide of battle inside Iran,” Graham said on “Hannity.”

The question of who would actually receive support, however, remains deeply controversial.

Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi speaks at the Women’s Forum hosted by Vital Voices in Washington, D.C., on March 29, 2023. (Paul Morigi/Getty Images)

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Some opposition supporters continue to rally around exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, whose name has surfaced during anti-regime protests inside Iran and who has urged the international community not to give Tehran “another lifeline.”

Another group that has acted in various operations against the regime is the controversial People’s Mujahedin Organization of Iran, or MEK, which has long positioned itself as an organized opposition force against the Islamic Republic. The MEK recently posted videos showing its members targeting “regime centers and symbols of crime and repression,” in response to the execution of two of its members last month — Hamed Validi and Mohammad (Nima) Massoum-Shahi.

Others point to existing armed or semi-organized anti-regime groups, including Kurdish organizations, Baloch insurgent networks and underground resistance cells operating inside Iran.

Sardar Pashaei, director of the Hiwa Foundation and a former Iranian wrestling champion now living in the United States, warned that publicly discussing arming protesters could itself put lives at risk.

“I think we must be extremely cautious on this issue, especially publicly, because the regime can use it as a pretext to arrest protesters, fabricate cases and even justify executions,” Pashaei told Fox News Digital.

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IRAN’S INTERNET BLACKOUT HIDING STRIKE DAMAGE AND SUPPRESSING DISSENT, ISRAELI OFFICIALS SAY

A woman walks across a nearly empty public square in Tehran, Iran, with a large billboard displaying the portrait of the late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the background on March 3, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP Photo)

“For decades, the Islamic Republic has used accusations of ties to the United States, Israel, or espionage to target dissidents and political prisoners.”

Pashaei argued the better approach is supporting Iranian civil society, restoring internet access and backing democratic opposition groups that reflect Iran’s ethnic and political diversity.

The issue became even more sensitive after Trump said during a phone interview with “Fox News Sunday” in early April that his administration had previously attempted to send firearms to Iranian protesters through Kurdish channels, though the effort failed.

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IRAN REGIME FACES ‘BEGINNING OF THE END’ AS EXILED CROWN PRINCE SEES ‘GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY’

Men and women hold Kurdish scarves and roses during Nowruz festivities in Saqqez, Iran, on March 15, 2024. (Barbod Khorshidi/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

“We sent guns to the protesters, a lot of them. We sent them through the Kurds. And I think the Kurds took the guns,” Trump said.

Several Kurdish groups have denied receiving such shipments.

Pashaei warned that claims of foreign weapons support could deepen divisions inside the opposition while also exposing Kurdish groups to further retaliation from Tehran.

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“During the so-called ceasefire period, Kurdish opposition groups were targeted more than 30 times with drone and missile attacks,” he said, adding that four young Kurdish Peshmerga fighters were killed, including 19-year-old Ghazal Mowlan.

Cars burn in a street during a protest over the collapse of the currency’s value in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 8, 2026. (Stringer/West Asia News Agency via Reuters)

One source familiar with discussions surrounding Iranian opposition strategy said supporters of a more aggressive approach increasingly believe the current moment presents a rare opportunity to identify, train and support local resistance networks capable of protecting protesters and challenging the regime from within.

The source argued that while Iran spent decades building and cultivating proxy networks across the Middle East, Western governments largely avoided investing in organized anti-regime infrastructure inside Iran itself.

Others warn that empowering armed factions could trigger ethnic fragmentation, civil war or a Syria-style conflict inside Iran.

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According to the source, supporters of a more aggressive approach increasingly believe the current moment presents a rare opportunity to identify, train and support local resistance networks capable of protecting protesters and challenging the regime from within.

Whether Washington is willing to move beyond pressure campaigns and sanctions toward something closer to a modernized Reagan Doctrine remains unclear.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Members of security forces watch over the crowd during a funeral procession for IRGC Navy Chief Alireza Tangsiri and other senior naval commanders killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes in Tehran, Iran, on April 1, 2026. (Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

For now, Trump’s comments have pushed a once-theoretical conversation into the open, while some argue the current moment may represent the best opportunity in decades to challenge the regime.

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As US and Iran weigh peace deal, stranded seafarers wait in limbo

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As US and Iran weigh peace deal, stranded seafarers wait in limbo

Stranded at an Iranian port for nearly 10 weeks, Indian seafarer Anish has unintentionally become a firsthand witness to the Iran war.

Anish arrived in the Shatt al-Arab waterway on a cargo ship days before United States President Donald Trump launched “Operation Epic Fury” on February 28.

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He has been stuck on the vessel ever since.

“We’ve faced the whole situation here, the war, the missiles,” Anish, who was granted a pseudonym after agreeing to speak on condition of anonymity, told Al Jazeera.

“Our minds are terribly distracted.”

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Some of his fellow Indian seafarers have been able to return home by crossing Iran’s 44km land border with Armenia, Anish said, but many others have remained because they are still waiting to get paid.

“Some are stuck because of their Indian agents; they are not getting their salaries,” Anish said, referring to the middlemen who recruit seafarers, manage payrolls and take care of other employee matters on behalf of shipping firms.

“Some are stuck because the Iranian agents say we will not give you the dollars to reach Armenia.”

Anish said he has been subsisting on a diet of potatoes, onions, tomatoes and flatbread, but has heard that food and water on other ships are running low.

Anish’s predicament is one faced by an estimated 20,000 seafarers stranded since Iran in effect shut the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the United States and Israel’s attacks on the country.

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Before the war, the strait functioned as one of the world’s most critical shipping routes, carrying about one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies, and one-third of the seaborne fertiliser trade.

Despite the announcement of a tenuous ceasefire between Washington and Tehran on April 7, maritime traffic has remained at a standstill amid recurrent attacks in and around the waterway.

US Central Command said on Thursday that it had “intercepted” and “eliminated” inbound Iranian threats after three US Navy guided-missile destroyers came under attack from missiles, drones and small boats while crossing the strait.

Iran’s military said it had retaliated against the US Navy vessels after US forces targeted an oil tanker in its territorial waters.

Tehran also accused Washington of violating their ceasefire by carrying out air strikes on civilian areas, including Qeshm Island.

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Throughout the war, Iran has offered ships safe passage through its territorial waters for a fee, while continuing to fire intermittently on commercial vessels.

At the same time, the US has blockaded Iranian ports since April 13 in a bid to disrupt Tehran’s oil exports and access to foreign currency.

UK-based maritime intelligence company Lloyd’s List said on Monday that at least four commercial ships were fired upon since the previous day, while a container ship operated by French company CMA CGM on Wednesday reported that it had come under attack while crossing the waterway.

The United Nations International Maritime Organization estimates that at least 10 seafarers have been killed since the start of the war.

Iran’s merchant marine union reported that at least 44 Iranian seafarers, including dockworkers and fishermen, had been killed as of April 1.

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Trump said on Wednesday that US officials held “very good talks” with Tehran and that a peace deal was “very possible”, but it remains unclear how close the sides are to any agreement.

The MSC Francesca ship is seen during its seizure by the IRGC in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, on April 24, 2026 [Meysam Mirzadeh/Tasnim/West Asia News Agency via Reuters]

While some ships have managed to exit the Strait of Hormuz during brief lulls in hostilities, each day brings new uncertainty for the civilian crews manning the Gulf’s massive fleet of oil, gas and container ships, according to labour groups.

Last month, Iranian forces detained two foreign-flagged cargo ships and their crew, while the US Navy captured three Iran-linked commercial vessels in the Gulf and the Indian Ocean.

The prospect of being detained on top of being stranded at sea has created an “enhanced state of fear,” said Stephen Cotton, general secretary of the International Transport Workers’ Federation, which represents about 700 unions across 150 countries.

“Since the beginning of the year, we’ve got military forces boarding ships like it’s the 17th century, and that’s terrifying,” Cotton told Al Jazeera.

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“It’s kind of crazy, because these are seafarers. These are just workers.”

The IMO has called the situation facing mariners an “unprecedented” humanitarian crisis, though conditions facing workers can vary considerably depending on the shipowner and whether they are unionised.

While seafarers on board vessels operated by major international shipping lines have been receiving hazard pay and other assistance, some seafarers working with smaller operations are struggling to get paid or have their basic needs met, according to Cotton and other seafarers’ advocates.

“The reality is you’ve got two kinds of shipping industries. One is the intercontinental trade – the big gas, the big oil, and the big containers. Then you’ve got the local trade supplying oil, food, water and moving it around the Gulf,” Cotton said, adding that smaller vessels often operate without unions or the “rigorous enforcement of international regulations”.

Saman Rezaei, general secretary of the ITF-affiliated Iranian Merchant Mariners Syndicate, said that many foreign seafarers in Iran work for “irregular agencies” that do not meet international standards.

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Crew rotation has become a major pressure point for ships.

Under the 2006 Maritime Labour Convention – an international treaty ratified by 111 countries, including China, India, Japan, Australia, and the United Kingdom – the maximum time a seafarer can be required to serve on board is 12 months.

While seafarers have a legal right to leave their vessel beyond this period, unstable conditions have made repatriation a complicated and expensive prospect.

In some cases, especially on board large cargo ships still at sea, departing crew must first be replaced by incoming employees for safety reasons.

“With the ships unable to move and flights disrupted, many have had no choice but to remain on the ships even after their planned rotation,” John Bradford, a former US Navy officer and executive director of the Yokosuka Council on Asia-Pacific Studies in Japan, told Al Jazeera.

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“This keeps them from their families and creates all sorts of social ripple effects even as they continue in a situation that is increasingly stressful.”

‘I told my crew how to run’

Steven Jones, the founder of the “Seafarer Happiness Index,” said seafarers’ self-reported wellbeing score has fallen about 5 percent during the war.

Seafarers have described seeing Iranian drones and missiles flying at low altitude, Jones said.

“One told us: ‘What scares me the most is the thought of an intercepted drone or missile falling on us,’” Jones, who is affiliated with the UK-based Mission to Seafarers charity, told Al Jazeera.

Other seafarers have reported dwindling food supplies and preparing escape plans, Jones said.

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“Several senior officers say they have had to prepare evacuation plans for their teams: ‘I told my crew how to run, where to jump from, and what to carry if something happens,’” Jones said, quoting one seafarer.

Earlier this week, Trump announced that the US would begin guiding stranded ships out of the strait from Monday, before suspending the operation less than 48 hours later to pursue peace talks despite ongoing attacks in the waterway.

A view of Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Touska as the U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class Aegis guided missile destroyer USS Spruance conducts its interception in a location given as the north Arabian Sea, in this screen capture from a video released April 19, 2026. CENTCOM/Handout via REUTERS THIS IMAGE HAS BEEN SUPPLIED BY A THIRD PARTY. THIS IMAGE WAS PROCESSED BY REUTERS TO ENHANCE QUALITY, AN UNPROCESSED VERSION HAS BEEN PROVIDED SEPARATELY. VERIFICATION -Identity of the ship confirmed as Touska by shape which matched file imagery of the vessel. -Exact date not verified but no older version found posted online before April 19. -Vessel tracking data showed the most recent location of Touska near the Gulf of Oman on April 19.
A view of Iranian-flagged cargo ship M/V Touska in the north Arabian Sea on April 19, 2026 [Centcom/Handout via Reuters]

Even if the strait were to reopen tomorrow, trade flows would take some time to return to normal due to damaged regional infrastructure, maxed-out storage facilities across the Gulf and a backlog of exports, according to shipping and logistics experts.

For the stranded seafarers, there is also the question of finding a safe route out of the strait, where Iran has reportedly laid sea mines.

US officials told The New York Times last month that Tehran had laid the mines haphazardly and was unable to locate all of them.

“There has been a lot of speculation about more precise numbers, but the fact is that we don’t know; uncertainty is central to mine warfare, and creating uncertainty about risk is part of the point of conducting it,” Scott Savitz, a senior engineer at the US-based Rand Corporation who has studied naval mine warfare, told Al Jazeera.

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Savitz said that it would be possible to establish an exit corridor in a few days, but clearing the strait of mines could take weeks or even months.

“Iran has stated that it has laid mines in and around the Strait of Hormuz, but it’s possible that they have laid them in other areas,” Savitz said.

The IMO announced in late April that it was working on an evacuation plan that prioritises ships based on humanitarian need, but that “all parties” involved in the conflict would need to refrain from attacks for such an operation to proceed.

“It’s a very dangerous moment,” the ITF’s Cotton said.

“We’re all saying the same – don’t transit unless you know it’s safe – but I don’t think anyone really knows what’s safe any more.”

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The longer the war drags on, the higher the risk that ship operators will abandon their vessels without settling all outstanding pay, according to seafarers’ advocates.

“This is a longstanding problem in the region, and as cargo disputes arise or the mechanical condition of vessels deteriorate, then the temptation for ‘bad owners’ is to walk away,” Jones said.

Anish, the Indian seafarer, said he has not been paid by his Dubai-based agent for nine months.

He is supposed to receive a payment in US dollars later this month, but he is worried that his company may withhold the sum.

“My contract finish date is the 20th of May,” Anish said.

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“Maybe the company will provide my salary after that,” he said. “I don’t know ”

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