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Morning Bid: ‘Tis the season for macro forecasts

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Morning Bid: ‘Tis the season for macro forecasts

LONDON, December 5 (Reuters) – Everything Mike Dolan and the ROI team are excited to read, watch and listen to over the weekend.

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Hello Morning Bid readers!

We’ve entered the final month of the year, and that means one thing: 2026 market outlooks. While it’s tough to find many U.S. equity bears, forecasts are arriving with quite a few qualifiers – which is understandable given that so much is riding on an artificial intelligence boom that’s shrouded in uncertainty.
AI adoption might truly take off next year, but as ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan argues, U.S. GDP growth is likely still going to be constrained by a 150-year 2% trendline, especially if technological innovation runs up against supply chain or labor market bottlenecks.
Speaking of the U.S. labor market, the picture there is once again clear as mud. On Wednesday, U.S. private payrolls for November came in at negative 32,000 – well below consensus and the biggest drop in more than two and a half years. Yet Thursday brought news that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits had slid to the lowest level in a more than three years.
And despite all the talk of a K-shaped economy, a slice of consumer delinquency figures suggests the U.S. economic picture might not be so grim.
On top of that, fears about foreign investors souring on U.S. stocks may also be misplaced. Overseas private sector inflows into U.S. stocks are running at record-high levels, having re-accelerated in recent months. The big question now is whether this can be sustained next year.
Over in Asia, Japan’s 10-year yield jumped to its highest point since 2007 on Friday, shooting up over 25 bps in four weeks, even as the government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has sought to soothe investor concerns about her $137 billion spending plan.
The battered yen continues to hover around 155 to the dollar, near the higher end of its multi-decade range. The currency’s seemingly excessive weakness may be a ticking time bomb, argues Eurizon SLJ CEO Stephen Jen.
In energy markets, the week started off with OPEC+ announcing that it would keep production levels unchanged through the first quarter. But uncertainty surrounding sanctioned volumes complicates the market outlook.
Staying with OPEC+, changes its making to its oil production quota system could spark a wave of upstream investments.
Meanwhile, in the gas market, Europe is preparing to phase out Russian imports by 2027. ROI energy transition columnist Gavin Maguire explains which countries will be most affected.
Over in metals, copper continues its bull run, but this boom does not mean global manufacturing is firing up commensurately heading into 2026.
Looking to next week, the main event is the Federal Reserve meeting. A 25 bps cut is all but guaranteed, but Fed-watchers will pay close attention to the number of dissents, as this may speak to the growing divisions in a body long known for consensus.
The real Fed story, however, remains Present Donald Trump’s selection of the next Chair. Mike Dolan argues that if White House adviser Kevin Hassett is selected – as Trump has hinted – he will effectively serve as a “shadow Fed Chair” for five months – with markets hanging on his every word.

As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team’s recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch to stay informed and ready for the week ahead.

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I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at anna.szymanski@thomsonreuters.com, opens new tab ., opens new tab
This weekend, we’re reading…CLYDE RUSSELL, ROI Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist: You don’t need to be a chess player to appreciate the story of Sarwagya Singh Kushwaha, the youngest player in chess history to earn an official FIDE rating before the age of four.RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: A picture is worth a thousand words. That’s why I recommend looking at this exquisite collection of the Reuters’ top photographs of 2025, selected from the 1.6 million photos released to clients this year. And what a year it’s been…GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: This updated high-def map of U.S. Data Center infrastructure created by the chief cartographer at the recently renamed National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is a thing of beauty. It really highlights the enormous scale of the activity taking place across the country as transmission lines and server farms get up at running to power the AI revolution: https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/gen/fy26/98020.jpg, opens new tabJAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: The U.S. – and the world – is experiencing an intense speculative AI boom. To get a sense of where it might lead, economics professors Simon Johnson and Piero Novelli look back and Charles Kindleberger’s “Manias, Panics and Crashes”. The book, published in 1978, raises three fundamental questions relevant to today., opens new tabWe’re listening to…MIKE DOLAN, ROI Editor-at-Large: It’s not often you get a podcast on ‘r*’! With the Fed meeting up next week, this Brookings podcast on the theoretical ‘neutral’ rate of interest shows how the shocks of recent years may see this rate creeping higher after years of decline., opens new tabJAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ fame doesn’t really do media beyond his often cryptic posts on X – and interviews are even rarer. But fast forward through about 6-7 minutes of ads and intro, and you get one here on the ‘Against the Rules’ podcast with author Michael Lewis., opens new tab

And we’re watching…

ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: We’ve just launched the Morning Bid daily podcast, opens new tab, which will be available in audio and video. Subscribe to hear and see ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan and other Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.
Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X., opens new tab
Opinions expressed are those of authors. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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Snoop Dogg, Lainey Wilson, Huntr/x and Andrea Bocelli Deliver Christmas-Themed Halftime Show for Netflix’s NFL Lions-Vikings Telecast

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Snoop Dogg, Lainey Wilson, Huntr/x and Andrea Bocelli Deliver Christmas-Themed Halftime Show for Netflix’s NFL Lions-Vikings Telecast

It was a holiday-tastic mix of Snoop Dogg‘s greatest hits and Christmas favorites that livened up Minneapolis’ U.S. Bank Stadium during the halftime break for Netflix‘s Christmas Day telecast of the NFL’s Detroit Lions game against the Minnesota Vikings.

Snoop Dogg, Lainey Wilson and Huntr/x of “Kpop Demon Hunters” fame brought their own brand of Christmas cheer to the event. Martha Stewart introduced the “Snoop’s Holiday Halftime Party” segment with a Snoop Dogg spin on “Twas the Night Before Christmas,” with lines such as, “Fans forgot about their beef, because gin and juice filled the air.”

Snoop entered the arena in a fire engine-red double breasted suit topped by a long red coat with fuzzy red trim. He walked through a clever medley of his signature hits, starting with “The One and Only,” that shifted into “My Favorite Things” and then into “Nuthin’ But a ‘G’ Thang.” He was backed by a small orchestra that assembled on the gridiron, along with energetic dancers dressed in suits that suggested candy canes. A high-energy marching band and drummers added to the wall of sound presented.

Snoop Dogg performs U.S. Bank Stadium on Dec. 25, 2025, in Minneapolis. (Julian Dakdouk/Netflix via AP Content Services)

Julian Dakdouk/Netflix via AP Content Services

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There was some chatter online about the weak audio quality on Snoop’s vocals for telecast viewers. The challenge of delivering strong sound in a live broadcast was probably compounded by the fact that Snoop moved all over the stage and field during his performance.

Snoop was joined after a few minutes by Huntr/x, the trio of singers behind Netflix’s smash hit “Kpop Demon Hunters” movies, for a pop take on “The 12 Days of Christmas.”

Country star Lainey Wilson then joined the scene in a white sleigh for a spirited rendition of “Santa Claus Is Coming to Town.” Beloved Italian tenor Andrea Bocelli came out with his son, Matteo, to close out the show with a powerful duet on “White Christmas.” The elder and younger Bocelli were, of course, joined at the end by Snoop, Wilson and Huntr/x in classic network TV special closing number form.

This marks the second year that Netflix has carried two Christmas Day NFL games with a high-profile musical performance in between. Last year the appearance by Beyoncé added superstar status to Netflix’s inaugural “Christmas GameDay” telecast. This year, Snoop Dogg and friends, which included rising singer Tonio Armani, provided a modern spin on a feel-good, sing-along musical Christmas event. The segment closed with a cuddly picture of Snoop surrounded by his many children and grandchildren, all wearing holiday pajamas.

Earlier Thursday, Netflix carried the first of its two games, in which the Dallas Cowboys beat the Washington Commanders 30-23, in Washington.

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(Pictured top: Lainey Wilson and Snoop Dogg)

Snoop Dogg performs the halftime show during the game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions at U.S. Bank Stadium on Dec. 25. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images)

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Trio of Palestinians arrested for allegedly torching Christmas tree at Catholic church in West Bank

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Trio of Palestinians arrested for allegedly torching Christmas tree at Catholic church in West Bank

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Three Palestinians were arrested on accusations of lighting a Christmas tree on fire and damaging part of a Nativity scene at a Catholic church in the Israeli-occupied West Bank city of Jenin, the Palestinian Authority Police announced.

The attack happened at around 3 a.m. Monday, according to the church.

Palestinian Authority Police said Wednesday the three were taken into custody after a review of surveillance footage targeting the Holy Redeemer Church of Jenin. Tools believed to have been used in the attack were seized from the suspects.

Police condemned the apparent attempt to incite sectarian and religious tensions in the West Bank.

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CHRISTMAS RETURNS TO HOLY LAND CITIES AS BETHLEHEM’S CHRISTIAN POPULATION DWINDLES, NAZARETH REMAINS STRONG

Palestinian parishioners check a recently installed Christmas tree after the previous one was destroyed at the Holy Redeemer Latin Church in the West Bank town of Jenin Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025. (AP)

The church shared photos on social media showing the skeleton of a synthetic Christmas tree that had been cleared of the green plastic branches, and red and gold ornaments were scattered across a courtyard.

The torched tree was quickly cleaned up by the church, which erected a new one a day after the attack in time for Christmas Mass.

The church held a special ceremony with local Muslim and Christian leaders and politicians in attendance. Rev. Amer Jubran, the local priest at the church, said the arson was an isolated incident and emphasized the city’s unity.

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“This occasion reaffirmed that attempts to harm religious symbols will never diminish the spirit of the city nor the faith of its people,” the Holy Redeemer Church said in a statement.

Palestinian Authority Police said the trio was taken into custody after a review of surveillance footage. (Getty Images)

The small Christian community in the West Bank is facing increasing threats of extremism from various sides, including both Israeli settlers and Palestinian extremists, prompting them to escape the region.

Christians make up between 1-2% of the West Bank’s roughly 3 million residents, and the vast majority of the community is Muslim. Across the entire Middle East, the Christian population has been declining as people have fled conflict.

In Israel, some church authorities and monitoring groups have documented a recent uptick in anti-Christian sentiment and harassment, including in Jerusalem’s Old City. Extremist Israeli settlers have also reportedly vandalized and torched areas around churches and Christian villages.

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POPE LEO XIV DELIVERS FIRST CHRISTMAS CALLING FOR END TO VIOLENCE IN MIDDLE EAST, RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR

Police condemned the apparent attempt to incite sectarian and religious tensions in the West Bank. (Getty Images)

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The Israel-Hamas war in Gaza kicked off a surge of violence in the West Bank, with the Israeli military’s offensive targeting terrorists killing hundreds of Palestinians and displacing tens of thousands. Terrorists have also attacked and killed Israelis in Israel and the West Bank.

The conflict has coincided with an increase in Israeli settler violence and Palestinian attacks on Israelis.

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The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Best of 2025: Top five defining moments in the European Parliament

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Best of 2025: Top five defining moments in the European Parliament

As the year draws to a close, Euronews explores the key moments that shaped the policy and politics at the European Parliament in 2025.

This parliamentary year was shaped by multiple attempts, albeit unsuccessfully, to topple the European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

Then there was an emerging — if informal — alliance of conservatives with the hard right that could pave the way for a new right in the lead-up to the general elections in France, Italy, and Spain in 2027.

It was also the year when the parliament adopted a much harder line on migration, doubled down on simplifying red tape and regulation to assist the ailing European industry, and moved further away from the landmark Green Deal, now under scrutiny.

1. Fresh corruption scandal looming over the Parliament

A major corruption investigation rattled the European Parliament in March.

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Belgian prosecutors investigated an alleged corruption involving MEPs and assistants of the European Parliament and the Chinese tech company Huawei.

According to the allegations, payments, excessive gifts such as food and travel expenses, and regular invitations to football matches were used to influence MEPs, which Belgian authorities regard as pointing to corruption.

All these incentives were allegedly intended to secure favourable political positions on issues of interest to the Chinese company.

Eight individuals were charged with offences including corruption, money laundering, and participation in a criminal organisation.

Prosecutors also asked to lift the immunity of four MEPs: Italians Salvatore De Meo and Fulvio Martusciello (EPP), Maltese MEP Daniel Attard (S&D), and Bulgarian lawmaker Nikola Minchev (Renew Europe).

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They have denied the allegations.

The Parliament’s Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs is still discussing the four cases, with the decision on whether to lift or maintain immunity set for the first months of 2026.

In the meantime, the European Parliament has barred Huawei lobbyists from its premises in Brussels, Strasbourg and Luxembourg.

2. Von der Leyen’s Commission survived no-confidence votes

Members of the European Parliament tried three times to topple the European Commission, tabling almost back-to-back no-confidence votes in an unprecedented sequence for the chamber.

To be approved, any motion of censure requires at least two-thirds of the votes cast in the Parliament, representing a majority of all its members. The threshold is high, and none of the three votes held got close to forcing the Commission to resign.

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But it was the gesture that mattered. This is a defiant parliament, even among her conservative ranks.

The first vote held in July was initiated by some members of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), challenging Ursula von der Leyen.

The 360 MEPs who voted against the motion of censure — and therefore defended the European Commission — were fewer than the 370 who had approved the Commission back in November 2024.

Several MEPs from S&D and Renew Europe groups, both part of the centrist majority, chose not to take part in the vote: it was a way of expressing their discontent with von der Leyen’s policies without supporting a motion coming from the far-right.

The following two votes held in October and tabled respectively by the Left and the far-right Patriots for Europe (PfE) groups, saw a more substantial majority defending the Commission, and von der Leyen’s position was strengthened as a result.

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As one source told Euronews, the Parliament showed its teeth, and von der Leyen managed to prove there is no alternative to her leadership at the top of the Commission.

3. Magyar and Salis win against Hungary’s judiciary

Peter Magyar, the leader of the Hungarian opposition party Tisza, Klára Dobrev, a Socialist Hungarian lawmaker, and Ilaria Salis, an Italian activist and left-wing MEP, were sought by Hungary’s judiciary over different claims, but remained protected by the EU’s parliamentary immunity even as Hungarian MEPs tried to export domestic politics from Budapest into the grand stage of Brussels.

Magyar faced three requests to have his parliamentary immunity removed: two for defamation and one for allegations claiming he threw a man’s phone into the Danube river after an argument at a Budapest nightclub with a man who was filming him.

He considered the accusations a “political issue”, given his role as leader of the opposition to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his former romantic relationship with Judit Varga, who served as justice minister under Orbán, which did not end on amicable terms.

MEP Dobrev was also accused of defamation, after she claimed that a local official was involved in a paedophilia scandal that led to the downfall of Hungary’s President Katalin Novák and Varga, the ex-partner of Magyar. She maintained her parliamentary immunity.

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Separately, Italian MEP Ilaria Salis, who was arrested in February 2023 in Budapest after a brawl in which she was accused of assaulting and beating two men described as far-right militants during the so-called Day of Honour, a neo-Nazi gathering in Europe.

The issue became a point of tension between Budapest and Rome, torn between Salis’ clashing political views with the Meloni government, and the duty to protect an Italian citizen abroad. Her parliamentary immunity was also maintained.

The Parliament rejected all the requests in a tense voting session on 7 October.

Salis’ case went down to the wire: in a secret ballot, 306 MEPs voted in favour and 305 against, revealing deep divisions within the Parliament.

Salis later referred to it as a victory against fascism in Europe.

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4. The EPP’s ‘dangerous liaison’ with the far right

This year was also marked by the emergence of an alternative to the traditional majority between the conservatives, socialists and liberals in the European Parliament, all of whom are often presented as pro-Europe and pro-rule of law.

On specific occasions, the EPP abandoned its traditional allies to advance legislation with the votes of the right-wing ECR and the far-right PfE and Europe of Sovereign Nations (ESN).

The unofficial alliance benefited the EPP in votes on migration and environmental issues.

One example was a legislative package titled Omnibus I, proposed by the Commission to support European businesses.

The package diluted the EU’s due diligence law, which required companies to assess their supply chains for potential environmental and labour violations.

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New rules on sustainability reporting and due diligence obligations, which were more relaxed than the original law, were initially agreed by the political groups of the centrist majority. However, some MEPs from S&D and Renew voted to reject them.

Therefore, on 22 October in Strasbourg, the lawmakers subverted the decision adopted by the Parliament’s Legal Affairs Committee on 13 October and the simplification package was rejected with 318 votes against, 309 in favour and 34 abstentions.

Three weeks later, the EPP managed to pass the bill with the votes of the ECR, PfE, and ESN, rather than negotiate a compromise version with its traditional allies.

The package significantly changed the original provisions of the due diligence law, which would apply now only to companies with more than 5,000 employees and a net annual turnover of over €1.5 billion (instead of 1,000 employees and a yearly turnover of €450 million as initially redacted).

The Parliament’s adopted version also scrapped fines of up to 5% for non-compliance, introducing a vaguer formula around “appropriate levels” of sanctions, to be decided by the member states.

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5. A harder line on illegal migration

December saw a rush in Parliament to approve key migration-related documents, a divisive issue.

In the final plenary session in Strasbourg, the Parliament approved a change to the concept of a “safe third country,” which will expand the set of circumstances under which asylum applications can be rejected, enabling EU countries to deport asylum seekers to third countries, even if they have a connection to it.

The other legislative bill adopted was a new EU list of “safe countries of origin” for the purposes of asylum, which now includes Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, India, Kosovo, Morocco and Tunisia, as well as all EU candidate countries except Ukraine. Nationality-based selection of asylum applicants from those countries seeking to apply for asylum in the EU would be assessed through fast-track procedures.

On migration, the Parliament’s and the Council’s positions are aligned, signalling a pivot into a harder line when it comes to illegal migration in Europe.

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