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Morning Bid: ‘Tis the season for macro forecasts

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Morning Bid: ‘Tis the season for macro forecasts

LONDON, December 5 (Reuters) – Everything Mike Dolan and the ROI team are excited to read, watch and listen to over the weekend.

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Hello Morning Bid readers!

We’ve entered the final month of the year, and that means one thing: 2026 market outlooks. While it’s tough to find many U.S. equity bears, forecasts are arriving with quite a few qualifiers – which is understandable given that so much is riding on an artificial intelligence boom that’s shrouded in uncertainty.
AI adoption might truly take off next year, but as ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan argues, U.S. GDP growth is likely still going to be constrained by a 150-year 2% trendline, especially if technological innovation runs up against supply chain or labor market bottlenecks.
Speaking of the U.S. labor market, the picture there is once again clear as mud. On Wednesday, U.S. private payrolls for November came in at negative 32,000 – well below consensus and the biggest drop in more than two and a half years. Yet Thursday brought news that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits had slid to the lowest level in a more than three years.
And despite all the talk of a K-shaped economy, a slice of consumer delinquency figures suggests the U.S. economic picture might not be so grim.
On top of that, fears about foreign investors souring on U.S. stocks may also be misplaced. Overseas private sector inflows into U.S. stocks are running at record-high levels, having re-accelerated in recent months. The big question now is whether this can be sustained next year.
Over in Asia, Japan’s 10-year yield jumped to its highest point since 2007 on Friday, shooting up over 25 bps in four weeks, even as the government of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has sought to soothe investor concerns about her $137 billion spending plan.
The battered yen continues to hover around 155 to the dollar, near the higher end of its multi-decade range. The currency’s seemingly excessive weakness may be a ticking time bomb, argues Eurizon SLJ CEO Stephen Jen.
In energy markets, the week started off with OPEC+ announcing that it would keep production levels unchanged through the first quarter. But uncertainty surrounding sanctioned volumes complicates the market outlook.
Staying with OPEC+, changes its making to its oil production quota system could spark a wave of upstream investments.
Meanwhile, in the gas market, Europe is preparing to phase out Russian imports by 2027. ROI energy transition columnist Gavin Maguire explains which countries will be most affected.
Over in metals, copper continues its bull run, but this boom does not mean global manufacturing is firing up commensurately heading into 2026.
Looking to next week, the main event is the Federal Reserve meeting. A 25 bps cut is all but guaranteed, but Fed-watchers will pay close attention to the number of dissents, as this may speak to the growing divisions in a body long known for consensus.
The real Fed story, however, remains Present Donald Trump’s selection of the next Chair. Mike Dolan argues that if White House adviser Kevin Hassett is selected – as Trump has hinted – he will effectively serve as a “shadow Fed Chair” for five months – with markets hanging on his every word.

As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team’s recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch to stay informed and ready for the week ahead.

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I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at anna.szymanski@thomsonreuters.com, opens new tab ., opens new tab
This weekend, we’re reading…CLYDE RUSSELL, ROI Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist: You don’t need to be a chess player to appreciate the story of Sarwagya Singh Kushwaha, the youngest player in chess history to earn an official FIDE rating before the age of four.RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: A picture is worth a thousand words. That’s why I recommend looking at this exquisite collection of the Reuters’ top photographs of 2025, selected from the 1.6 million photos released to clients this year. And what a year it’s been…GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: This updated high-def map of U.S. Data Center infrastructure created by the chief cartographer at the recently renamed National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is a thing of beauty. It really highlights the enormous scale of the activity taking place across the country as transmission lines and server farms get up at running to power the AI revolution: https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/gen/fy26/98020.jpg, opens new tabJAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: The U.S. – and the world – is experiencing an intense speculative AI boom. To get a sense of where it might lead, economics professors Simon Johnson and Piero Novelli look back and Charles Kindleberger’s “Manias, Panics and Crashes”. The book, published in 1978, raises three fundamental questions relevant to today., opens new tabWe’re listening to…MIKE DOLAN, ROI Editor-at-Large: It’s not often you get a podcast on ‘r*’! With the Fed meeting up next week, this Brookings podcast on the theoretical ‘neutral’ rate of interest shows how the shocks of recent years may see this rate creeping higher after years of decline., opens new tabJAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ fame doesn’t really do media beyond his often cryptic posts on X – and interviews are even rarer. But fast forward through about 6-7 minutes of ads and intro, and you get one here on the ‘Against the Rules’ podcast with author Michael Lewis., opens new tab

And we’re watching…

ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: We’ve just launched the Morning Bid daily podcast, opens new tab, which will be available in audio and video. Subscribe to hear and see ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan and other Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.
Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website, opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn, opens new tab and X., opens new tab
Opinions expressed are those of authors. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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Canada to provide $2.5 billion in economic aid for Ukraine, prime minister says

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Canada to provide .5 billion in economic aid for Ukraine, prime minister says

Dec 27 (Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Saturday announced an additional $2.5 billion of economic aid for Ukraine.

The assistance will help Ukraine unlock financing from the International Monetary Fund, Carney said during an appearance with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who also spoke briefly to reporters.

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Reporting by Jasper Ward in Washington; Editing by Sergio Non and Matthew Lewis

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Hamas builds new terror regime in Gaza, recruiting teens amid problematic election

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Hamas builds new terror regime in Gaza, recruiting teens amid problematic election

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

Hamas is rebuilding a new Gaza terror apparatus and using the ceasefire with Israel to boost its military, restore a problematic leadership structure and recruit a new generation of teenage fighters, according to a leading national security analyst.

Professor Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, told Fox News Digital that the pause in fighting has given Hamas breathing room to regroup.

“Everything that is happening will continue happening as long as Hamas continues to effectively control the western part of the Gaza Strip,” Michael said.

“Generally speaking, Hamas now has full freedom of movement,” he warned.

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TWO IDF SOLDIERS KILLED AMID ‘SEVERE’ CEASEFIRE VIOLATION, ‘IT’S NOT THE LAST,’ ANALYST SAYS

Hamas terrorists stand guard on the day of the handover of hostages held in Gaza since the deadly October 7, 2023, attack.  (Hatem Khaled/Reuters)

Since Israeli forces withdrew from parts of Gaza in October under a new ceasefire framework, Hamas has moved to fill the power vacuum.

At the time, police forces returned to the streets as Hamas fighters targeted and executed suspected opponents.

Multiple reports indicate Hamas is now rebuilding across significant portions of Gaza, including areas where the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) previously operated.

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A December report by the Jewish News Syndicate found that Hamas is “actively rebuilding its regime of terror” in nearly half of the territory it controls.

TREY YINGST: HAMAS MUST ACCEPT TRUMP PEACE PLAN TO END WAR ONCE AND FOR ALL

Banners with the photograph of Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas terrorist leader who was killed in an Israeli attack, are hung on the streets in Tehran, Iran on Oct. 19, 2024. The giant banner hung in Palestine Square read, “Sinwar’s Storm continues.”  (Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Hamas is also preparing to elect a new political leader following the deaths of Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the Oct. 7 massacre in Israel.

According to The Jerusalem Post, senior Hamas figures Khalil al-Hayya and Khaled Mashaal are the contenders, with Hayya seen as the favorite because of his popularity in Gaza and his role in the West Bank.

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Michael said the leadership race is unlikely to alter Hamas’s already dangerous course.

“Both leaders are problematic,” he said. “Each one, in his own way, is considered to be more militant and more radical in his Gazan orientation and his support for armed resistance.”

Even Mashaal, often described as more politically oriented, “is still in favor of the continuation of armed resistance,” Michael added.

TRUMP WARNS HAMAS WILL BE ‘HUNTED DOWN, AND KILLED’ UNLESS ISRAELI HOSTAGES RELEASED BY SUNDAY

Hamas politburo member Khalil al-Hayya attends a news conference in Damascus, Syria October 19, 2022.  (Yamam al Shaar/REUTERS/File Photo)

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“When it comes to Hamas, it doesn’t really matter who is going to be the next political leader of this terror organization.”

Michael said one of the most alarming developments is Hamas’s growing success in recruiting teenagers during the ceasefire.

“It has become very easy for Hamas to recruit teenagers now because they effectively control the western part of the Gaza Strip,” he said, noting Hamas has become “the most reliable employer in the Gaza Strip,” offering small incomes to boys as young as 16 or 17.

“It seems to be very natural for them to join Hamas, because some of them have also lost relatives, and therefore there’s a revenge incentive.”

“They also might prefer to be in the bullyish-types of neighborhoods, like in the ghettos in Chicago,” he said.

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Michael suggested that because Hamas has “full freedom of movement, they have also been rebuilding tunnels.”

“They also appointed new governors to the different districts in Gaza and are reconstituting their government and military stockpiles,” Michael added.

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US visa ban targets ex-Commissioner Breton over alleged censorship

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US visa ban targets ex-Commissioner Breton over alleged censorship

The US State Department on Tuesday imposed visa bans on a former European Union commissioner and four others, accusing them of forcing American social media platforms to censor users and their viewpoints.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the five people targeted with visa bans “have led organised efforts to coerce American platforms to censor, demonetise, and suppress American viewpoints they oppose”.

“These radical activists and weaponised NGOs have advanced censorship crackdowns by foreign states – in each case targeting American speakers and American companies,” Rubio said in a statement.

Rubio did not initially name those targeted, but US Under Secretary for Public Diplomacy Sarah Rogers identified them on X, accusing the individuals of “fomenting censorship of American speech”.

The most high-profile target was Thierry Breton, a French former business executive who served as European Commissioner for the Internal Market from 2019 to 2024.

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Rogers described Breton as the “mastermind” of the EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA), the EU digital sphere rulebook that imposes content moderation and other standards on major social media platforms operating in Europe.

The visa bans also targeted Anna-Lena von Hodenberg and Josephine Ballon of the German nonprofit HateAid, Clare Melford, co-founder of the UK-based Global Disinformation Index, and Imran Ahmed, the British chief executive of the US-based Center for Countering Digital Hate.

Breton responded to the visa ban on X by writing: “Is McCarthy’s witch hunt back?”

“As a reminder: 90% of the European Parliament — our democratically elected body — and all 27 member states unanimously voted for the DSA,” Breton added. “To our American friends: ‘Censorship isn’t where you think it is.’”

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said France “strongly condemns” the visa restrictions, adding that Europe “cannot let the rules governing their digital space be imposed by others upon them”.

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“The Digital Services Act (DSA) was democratically adopted in Europe … it has absolutely no extraterritorial reach and in no way affects the United States,” Barrot said.

The three nonprofits have also rejected Washington’s claims and criticised Tuesday’s visa ban decision.

The letter that started it all?

Rogers specifically referenced a letter Breton sent to X owner Elon Musk in August 2024, ahead of an interview Musk planned to conduct with then-US presidential candidate Donald Trump.

In the letter, Breton warned Musk that he must comply with the Digital Services Act, according to reports at the time.

Rogers accused Breton of having “ominously reminded Musk of X’s legal obligations and ongoing ‘formal proceedings’ for alleged noncompliance with ‘illegal content’ and ‘disinformation’ requirements under the DSA.”

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In February, US Vice President JD Vance used one of his first major speeches after taking office to criticise what he described as censorship efforts in Europe, delivered at the Munich Security Conference.

He claimed that leaders had “threatened and bullied social media companies to censor so-called misinformation,” citing the example of the COVID-19 lab leak theory.

The DSA stipulates that major platforms must explain content-moderation decisions, provide transparency for users and ensure researchers can carry out essential work, such as understanding how much children are exposed to dangerous content.

The EU digital rulebook has become a rallying point for US conservatives who see it as a weapon of censorship against right-wing voices thought in Europe and beyond, an accusation Brussels denies.

The European Commission dismissed US censorship allegations back in August, calling them “nonsense” and “completely unfounded”.

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Earlier this month, the European Commission found Musk’s X in breach of DSA rules on transparency in advertising and verification methods, sparking another uproar in the US.

Romane Armangau contributed additional reporting.

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