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In seeking re-election, von der Leyen has one real rival: herself

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In seeking re-election, von der Leyen has one real rival: herself

Ursula von der Leyen is often hailed as the most transformational president of the European Commission since Jacques Delors. But could her legacy backfire as she seeks re-election?

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The German politician is ready for another five years at the helm of the European Union’s most powerful institution, from which she has shaped the bloc’s policies in ways that would have been unimaginable when MEPs elected her in 2019 by a razor-thin margin.

Her tenure kicked off amid a continent-wide movement of protests and strikes that thrust climate change to the very top of the agenda. It was therefore fitting that one of her first headline-grabbing moments was her presentation of the European Green Deal as a “man on the moon” moment.

The Green Deal set out the binding ambition to make the bloc climate-neutral by 2050, an irreversible shift for a borderless single market that traced its origins to a coal and steel community.

Shortly after, her executive plunged into a succession of crises, some lasting to this day.

“I had been in office for less than 100 days when the WHO declared a global pandemic,” von der Leyen said during her re-election announcement on Monday, referring to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw the entire bloc come to a standstill.

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The pandemic was followed by a rise in irregular migration, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the disruption of energy supplies, record-breaking inflation and an across-the-board economic slowdown. But instead of succumbing to external circumstances, the president managed to capitalise on those crises to strengthen and deepen European integration.

Against the virus, von der Leyen spearheaded a history-making €750-billion recovery fund to jolt the bloc’s economy after crippling months of paralysis. Months later, she oversaw an unprecedented common procurement of vaccines to ensure all member states had access to the life-saving treatment on equal conditions.

When Vladimir Putin gave the go-ahead to invade Ukraine, von der Leyen proposed plans to wean the EU off Russian fossil fuels – a costly vice kept for decades as taboo – and drastically ramp up the deployment of renewables. As a result, the bloc’s dependency rate on Russian gas fell from 45% in 2021 to 15% in 2023. Meanwhile, imports of seaborne oil and coal collapsed to zero.

The president then turned the war into the long-missing catalyst that was needed to revive the project of enlargement and recommended the opening of accession talks with Ukraine, Moldova and Bosnia-Herzegovina, provided the completion of reforms.

When she saw China double down on its assertiveness and stand by Putin’s side, von der Leyen came up with the concept of “de-risking” and drafted the first-ever strategy on economic security, forcing open markets to reckon head-on with geopolitical swings.

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On migration, she fought to reform the bloc’s asylum policy as she tried an untested, and controversial, method to sign agreements with neighbouring countries, including Tunisia and Mauritania. And on digital, she laid out a brand-new rulebook to rein in unfair competition, unlawful content and the worst effects of artificial intelligence

All of this elevated von der Leyen’s profile, both domestically and internationally, to heights previously unknown to her predecessors. She earned glowing coverage in, among others, the New York Times, the Guardian, Time Magazine and Forbes, which named her the world’s most powerful woman for two years in a row.

Inside the Commission, however, her penchant for ambitious policies ruffled feathers among staff, who decried her tendency to micro-manage legislation and take decisions in close consultation with only a very selected, mostly German circle of advisers. Diplomats from member states have complained about what they see as von der Leyen’s insistence on dominating the narrative by floating grand ideas in public, which can have the effect of pre-empting the outcome of internal negotiations.

Von der Leyen’s icy relationship with Charles Michel, the president of the European Council, has been the subject of endless speculation since the infamous Sofagate scandal in Turkey. Last year, Michel openly chastised the Commission for the way it designed a phased-in ban on Russian oil and the memorandum of understanding with Tunisia.

The tension surfaced again after von der Leyen received blistering criticism for her response to the Israel-Hamas war and Michel attempted to position himself as a moderate force among the diverging views of member states. The debacle from her trip to Tel Aviv resonated for weeks and seriously threatened her standing in Brussels.

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Still, the Commission president managed to pull through and shake off her harshest critics. By the time she announced her campaign, no other name thrown in the ring had the gravitas to compete with her. The warm wishes sent by EU leaders bode well for her future.

“The old question of Henry Kissinger of who do you phone when you want to phone Europe? I think, at this point in time, it has an answer,” said Nathalie Tocci, director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI), praising how von der Leyen “very successfully” transformed the pandemic and the Ukraine war into policy opportunities.

“There’s definitely a story about political leadership,” she added. “The flipside to that style is that it has been a very centralised form of leadership which obviously created quite a bit of discontent within the institution itself.”

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With no political rival standing between her and the Commission, von der Leyen inevitably becomes her sole adversary. Her legacy, built at a frantic pace in times of extreme urgency, will simultaneously serve as an argument in favour and against her re-election.

It is no coincidence that, as the June elections neared, the political discourse moved to dissect one of her key accomplishments: the Green Deal. Ever since the battle over the Nature Restoration Law, conservative voices, including from von der Leyen’s own political family, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), have ramped up their condemnation of environmental policies which, they say, are constraining industrial production, creating excessive bureaucracy and endangering competitiveness.

The farmers’ protests that erupted in January across several European countries only reinforced the right-wing backlash and forced von der Leyen to change her tune, promising “more dialogue” to reconcile climate and agriculture. The scrutiny is set to last until, at least, the June ballot is over and might very well extend into a second presidential term where the economy, defence and high-tech take centre stage.

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Faustine Bas-Defossez, director for nature at the European Environmental Bureau (EEB), believes the Green Deal must return to its early days, when it was an “ambitious, transformative agenda” with “high-level commitments,” before being weakened by the “upcoming European elections and the instrumentalisation of the consequences of the war in Ukraine by some actors, in particular from the agribusiness.”

“At a time of fears, eco-anxiety and threats to democracy in several places of the world, we need political courage and hope further down the line,” Bas-Defossez told Euronews.

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“The Green Deal remains the only compass we have towards a liveable future. It should therefore remain and get strengthened in the next mandate while putting a new social contract at its core.”

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A look at some of the contenders to be Iran’s supreme leader after the killing of Khamenei

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A look at some of the contenders to be Iran’s supreme leader after the killing of Khamenei

Iran’s leaders are scrambling to replace Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who ruled the country for 37 years before he was killed in the surprise U.S. and Israeli bombardment.

It’s only the second time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution that a new supreme leader is being chosen. Potential candidates range from hard-liners committed to confrontation with the West to reformists who seek diplomatic engagement.

The supreme leader has the final say on all major decisions, including war, peace and the country’s disputed nuclear program.

In the meantime, a provisional governing council composed of President Masoud Pezeshkian, hard-line judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei and senior Shiite cleric Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi is guiding the country through its biggest crisis in decades. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Sunday that a new supreme leader would be chosen early this week.

The supreme leader is appointed by an 88-member panel called the Assembly of Experts, who by law are supposed to quickly name a successor. The panel consists of Shiite clerics who are popularly elected after their candidacies are approved by the Guardian Council, Iran’s constitutional watchdog.

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Khamenei had major influence over both clerical bodies, making it unlikely the next leader will mark a radical departure.

Here are the top contenders.

Mojtaba Khamenei

The son of Khamenei, a mid-level Shiite cleric, is widely considered a potential successor. He has strong ties to Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard but has never held office. His selection could prove awkward, as the Islamic Republic has long criticized hereditary rule and cast itself as a more just alternative.

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Ayatollah Ali Reza Arafi

Arafi is a member of the provisional government council. The senior Shiite cleric was handpicked by Khamenei to be a member of the Guardian Council in 2019, and three years later he was elected to the Assembly of Experts. He leads a network of seminaries.

Hassan Rouhani

Rouhani, a relative moderate, was president of Iran from 2013 to 2021 and reached the landmark nuclear agreement with the Obama administration that U.S. President Donald Trump scrapped during his first term. Rouhani served on the Assembly of Experts until 2024, when he said he was disqualified from running for reelection. Rouhani criticized it as an infringement on Iranians’ political participation.

Hassan Khomeini

Khomeini is the most prominent grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. He is also seen as a relative moderate, but has never held government office. He currently works at his grandfather’s mausoleum in Tehran.

Ayatollah Mohammed Mehdi Mirbagheri

Mirbagheri is a senior cleric popular with hard-liners who serves on the Assembly of Experts.

He was close to the late Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, a fellow hard-liner who wrote that Iran should not deprive itself of the right to produce “special weapons,” a veiled reference to nuclear arms.

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During the COVID-19 pandemic, Mirbagheri denounced the closure of schools as a “conspiracy.”

He is currently the head of the Islamic Cultural Center in Qom, the main center for Islamic teaching in Iran.

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US cleared to use British bases for limited strikes on Iranian missile capabilities

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US cleared to use British bases for limited strikes on Iranian missile capabilities

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The U.S. has been cleared to use British bases for limited strikes on Iran’s missile capabilities after Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed off on the plan, and while U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey stated on Sunday Britain had “stepped up alongside the Americans.”

“The only way to stop the threat is to destroy the missiles at source, in their storage depots or the launchers which are used to fire the missiles,” Starmer confirmed in a recorded statement to the nation.

“The U.S. has requested permission to use British bases for that specific and limited defensive purpose,” he said. “We have taken the decision to accept this request.”

The decision came amid escalation across the Middle East in the wake of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory missile and drone attacks, raising fears of a broader regional conflict.

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British Prime Minister Keir Starmer signed off on a plan to use British bases for limited strikes on Iranian missile capabilities. (Kin Cheung / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)

On Feb. 28, in the wake of Operation Epic Fury, Starmer confirmed British planes “are in the sky today” across the Middle East “as part of coordinated regional defensive operations to protect our people, our interests and our allies.”

Healey went on to disclose Sunday that two Iranian missiles were fired in the direction of Cyprus, where Britain maintains key sovereign base areas.

The Royal Air Force confirmed that Typhoon jets operating from Qatar as part of the joint U.K.-Qatar Typhoon Squadron successfully intercepted an Iranian drone heading toward Qatar.

About 300 British personnel are stationed at a naval facility in Bahrain, where Iranian missiles and drones struck nearby areas.

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“We’re taking down the drones that are menacing either our bases, our people or our allies,” Healey told “Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips” on Sky. “We’ve stepped up alongside the Americans. We’ve stepped up our defensive forces in the Middle East. We’re flying those sorties.”

ISRAEL’S LARGEST EVER MILITARY FLYOVER HAMMERS IRANIAN MILITARY TARGETS

British Defense Secretary John Healey stressed that the U.K. had “no part” in the American-Israeli strikes on Iran. (Peter Nicholls/Pool via Reuters)

Healey also made sure to stress that the U.K. had “no part” in the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and insisted all British actions were defensive. “All our actions are about defending U.K. interests and defending U.K. allies,” he said.

When asked if the U.K. would join the U.S. in offensive action, Healey said, “I’m not going to speculate,” according to Sky News.

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Downing Street also confirmed Feb. 28 that Starmer and President Donald Trump had spoken by phone about the “situation in the Middle East,” the BBC reported.

Fox News Digital has reached out to Downing Street for comment.

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Pakistan calls troops, orders 3-day curfew as 24 killed in pro-Iran rallies

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Pakistan calls troops, orders 3-day curfew as 24 killed in pro-Iran rallies

Army deployed and some areas in northern Gilgit-Baltistan region put under curfew after deadly violence over Khamenei’s killing.

Pakistan has called in the military and imposed a three-day curfew in some areas following deadly protests over the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a joint United States-Israeli attack on Saturday.

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At least 24 people were killed and dozens injured in clashes between protesters and security forces across the country on Sunday, prompting authorities to tighten security around the US embassy and consulates.

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The curfew was imposed before dawn Monday in the districts of Gilgit, Skurdu, and Shigar in the northern Gilgit-Baltistan region, where at least 12 protesters and one security officer were killed and dozens of others wounded during confrontations, according to an official statement.

Of those, seven were killed in Gilgit, a rescue official said, while six others died in Skardu, a doctor told AFP news agency on Monday.

Thousands of demonstrators on Sunday attacked the offices of the United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP), which monitors the ceasefire along the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, and the UN Development Programme in Skardu city.

Protesters also burned a police station and damaged a school and the offices of a local charity in Gilgit, according to officials.

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UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric on Monday said protesters became violent near the UNMOGIP Field Station, which was vandalised.

“The safety and security of UN personnel and premises throughout the region remain our top priority, and we continue to closely monitor the situation,” Dujarric said.

Shabir Mir, a Gilgit-Baltistan government spokesman, said the situation was under control and that the curfew would remain in place until Wednesday. Police chief Akbar Nasir Khan urged residents to stay indoors, citing “deteriorating law and order conditions”.

In the southern port city of Karachi, the country’s commercial hub, 10 people were killed and more than 60 injured during a protest outside the US consulate.

Two additional protesters were killed in the capital, Islamabad, while heading towards the US embassy.

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Pakistani authorities have beefed up security at US diplomatic missions across the country, including around the US consulate building in Peshawar, to avoid any further violence.

The US embassy and its consulates in Karachi and Lahore cancelled visa appointments and American Citizen Services on Monday, citing security concerns.

The federal government warned that the situation could further deteriorate amid large-scale demonstrations condemning Khamenei’s killing on Saturday.

Tehran has responded with a series of drone and missile attacks targeting Israel and US assets in several Gulf countries.

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