World
How Yemen’s Houthi rebels are carrying out attacks on Red Sea ships
How Houthi militants in Yemen are attacking ships in one of the world’s busiest maritime trade routes
Iranian-backed Houthi militants, who control swathes of Yemen, have used an array of sophisticated weapons – including ballistic missiles and “kamikaze” drones – in their attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea in support of Palestinian militant group Hamas in its war with Israel in the Gaza Strip.
The attacks began on Nov. 19 when Houthi commandos landed a helicopter on the Galaxy Leader cargo vessel as it was passing through the southern Red Sea. They redirected it toward Hodeidah port in Yemen and seized the crew, who are still being held.
Since then, 29 more ships have been attacked in the area, with 13 of those suffering direct strikes from missiles or drones. The attacks have caused major disruptions to global trade, some 12% of which passes through the Red Sea.
Reuters has cataloged the ships attacked so far and examined how Houthi militants are using a combination of weapons to target commercial ships. The analysis shows how Houthi drone and missile activity has escalated since the Gaza war began, and has continued despite Western military airstrikes on their bases in Yemen, which began on Jan. 11.
Graphic depicting all ships known to be targeted by Houthi attacks since November 19. Shows which ships were hit by missiles and drones and which had near misses.
Houthi attacks have targeted ships in the southern Red Sea and the neighboring Gulf of Aden, which are joined by the Bab al-Mandab strait, a chokepoint between the Horn of Africa and the Middle East.
In Arabic, Bab al-Mandab means “Gate of Tears”, a reference to the strait’s precarious navigation. The narrow waterway lies between Djibouti and Eritrea on the coast of east Africa and western Yemen, much of which is under Houthi control.
Bab al-Mandab is a strategic link between the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean: exports to the Western markets from the Gulf and Asia must pass through before entering the Suez Canal.
At only 18 miles wide at its narrowest point, shipping traffic is limited to two channels for inbound and outbound shipments, leading to occasional congestion.
Passing the “Gate of Tears”
Known locations of attacks on ships since Nov. 19
Map and satellite image of the southern Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait, showing shipping routes and highlighting locations of attacks.
The Houthis, who control the most populous regions of Yemen, say they will continue their attacks until Israel halts its “siege” of Gaza. The Israeli government has pledged to continue its offensive in Gaza until it has secured the release of hostages seized in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas and destroyed the Palestinian militant group.
A Reuters analysis of reported incidents shows how Houthi drone and missile strikes have escalated since the Gaza conflict erupted, and have continued since Western airstrikes began against land targets inside Yemen on Jan. 11. In the past week, the pace of those airstrikes has slowed, while interceptions of missiles and drones by U.S. and allied naval forces in the area has increased.
Fabian Hinz, open source analyst and research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a military think-tank based in London, said it was unclear how far Western airstrikes had depleted the Houthis’ capabilities. “I would say in general it’s almost impossible to degrade an arsenal like that 100%,” he said.
The Houthis have said the airstrikes have had no effect on their capabilities. A spokesman for the group did not respond to requests for comment for this story.
Interceptions of missiles or drones
Israel, the U.S. and allies, have been shooting down Houthi missiles and drones since the conflict broke out in Gaza. Many targets were unknown or heading towards Israel but as time progressed, many were suspected to be targeting naval or commercial ships. Incidents on the chart may have involved multiple missiles or drones.
Target: Ships Unknown
Chart showing allied interceptions of Houthi drones and missiles since October.
Houthi shipping attacks
Attacks began to break through naval overwatch with some ships being struck directly with missiles or drones and others targeted but missed.
Ship: Struck Missed
Chart showing Houthi attacks on ships since October with 13 suffering direct hits and the rest missing their target.
Days with allied air strikes
The U.S., UK and allies started to carry out strikes on Houthi land targets.
Chart showing the number of days with airstrikes increasing in January.
Many of the Houthi attacks have been on container vessels and dry bulk carriers. However, on Jan. 26, the Marlin Luanda oil tanker – operated on behalf of international commodity trader Trafigura – was hit by a Houthi anti-ship missile in the Gulf of Aden, causing a fire that lasted several hours.
While no casualties were reported, the incident was the most destructive of the crisis so far, shipping and insurance sources said.
“The recent strike on the Marlin Luanda highlights the ongoing risk to vessels and the likelihood that the current crisis will impact shipping and commodity markets for the foreseeable future,” data and analytics group Kpler said in a Jan 30 report.
The Houthi arsenal
In a show of strength in September, the Houthis paraded thousands of troops and trucks carrying weaponry in the capital Sanaa, including cruise and ballistic missiles as well as long-range armed drones. Armored vehicles and speed boats displayed signs that read: “Death to America, death to Israel!”
The Houthis, who emerged in the 1990s as an armed group in opposition to Saudi Arabia’s religious influence in Yemen, have long received funds, arms and training from Iran, according to regional and military experts.
Despite voicing support for the Houthi campaign, Iran has denied it provides the Yemeni group with weapons and intelligence. The Houthis have insisted they manufacture their own weapons and do not receive arms or take orders from Iran, even if they maintain a close relationship.
September’s military parade showcased Iranian-made weapons, including a surface-to-surface Iranian Toofan missile, which has a range of 850 to 1,200 miles (1,350-1,950 km), making it capable of reaching Israeli territory, according to a report from the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (ITIC), an Israel-based think-tank that researches Islamist groups and militias.
TOP: A view shows a military parade held by the Houthis to mark the anniversary of their takeover in Sanaa, Yemen September 21, 2023. Houthi Media Office/Handout via Reuters
BELOW: Still frames from a video showing Toofan and Quds Z-0 missiles displayed in a military parade in Sanaa on Sept. 21, 2023. REUTERSBELOW: Still frames from a video showing Quds Z-0 missiles displayed in a military parade in Sanaa on Sept. 21, 2023. REUTERS
The parade also featured new shore-to-sea missiles capable of hitting vessels in the Red Sea, among them Tankil missiles, which have an estimated range of about 300 miles (500 km), and Quds Z-0s, which are cruise missiles capable of hitting targets both on land and at sea, ITIC said.
Anti-ship missiles
An illustrated graphic shows some of the anti-ship missiles in the Houthi arsenal.
When the Houthis seized Sanaa in 2014, ousting the Saudi-backed government, they also inherited military equipment and staff with know-how from the previous government, notably short-range ballistic missiles as well as surface-to-surface and cruise missiles, some deployed on patrol craft, according to a specialist with Universal Defence and Security Solutions, a UK-based consultancy.
Their new Iranian-made weapons include Qasef-1 and Qasef-2K reconnaissance and attack drones, said the specialist, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue. While cheap and basic, these drones have a 50-60 mile range with a small warhead of around 30-40 kgs.
Other drones included the Sammad 1, 2 and 3, which are similar to the Qasef with a longer range of around 300 miles and smaller 18 kg warheads, he said.
Drones used by Houthis
An illustrated graphic shows some of the drones in the Houthi arsenal.
The defence specialist said that supplies of weapons systems and parts from Iran meant the Houthis should be able to sustain the near-daily rate of attacks in the Red Sea. In addition, the Houthis were able to produce some of their own munitions for basic rockets and drones, he said.
“It’s not particularly important that many of the fired weapon systems do not cause any significant damage: the disruptive impact on maritime trade, which relies on insurance, is quite easy to maintain, causing significant financial impact and operational complexity,” he said.
The Pentagon and the British Department of Defence did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
One-way attack drones
Western military and shipping companies have shared little information publicly on the types of drones used in recent Red Sea shipping attacks.
On Nov. 29, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) – which covers the Middle East, Central and South Asia – said that the destroyer USS Carney shot down an Iranian-produced KAS-04 drone – the U.S. designation for the Samad drone – launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.
A report commissioned by the Oil Companies International Marine Forum (OCIMF), an association of petroleum firms focused on promoting safer and cleaner shipping, identified the Shahed-136 as the “loitering munition” most commonly used against merchant ships operating in the Middle East. These types of drones can circle in an area before a final target is determined.
The Shahed was employed for the first time by the Houthis in Yemen’s war between September and December 2020, according to the report, published in August and produced by global risk analysts Sibylline.
The Shahed-136 – which has been extensively used by Russian forces in Ukraine – can be fired from truck-mounted containers at a slightly upward angle. A small rocket booster helps propel the drone into the air before being jettisoned. Its main piston engine then takes over to power the flight.
An illustration shows how the Shahed-136 is launched from a trailer using a small rocket for initial boost before its engine starts.
The drone will travel towards coordinates it has been assigned. Loitering munitions usually have a navigation system to calculate their speed and position, and sometimes possess sensors connected to commercial satellite networks.
Images released in November 2022 of a Shahed-136 used to attack the MV Pacific Zircon off the coast of Oman indicated a satellite receiver on board, which could enable real-time navigation, according to the OCIMF paper. This technology might also allow Houthi operators to manually alter target coordinates in-flight.
An illustration shows the Shahed-136 and other drones flying in the air.
Once the drone has passed any obstacles and cleared the coast it can take a lower flight path to try to avoid radar. The delta-wing design of the Shahed-136 gives it a low radar signature. Combined with its ability to travel at low-altitude, this makes detection by commercial radar difficult.
An illustration shows how drones can take a low-altitude flight profile towards targets.
As the noisy drone approaches target areas, the distinctive sound of its small piston engine can be heard, resembling the noise of a moped. They are also relatively slow.
An illustration shows rear views of the Shahed-136 and other drones with emphasis on the propeller and engine.
Taimur Khan, regional head of operations in the Gulf for Conflict Armament Research, an investigative organization that tracks weapons used in conflicts, said Houthi drones documented during the civil war were designed to hit static targets by using GPS coordinates. But the shipping attacks appeared more sophisticated.
“In order to reliably hit a moving target such as a cargo ship, even a relatively slow-moving one, there would need to be some kind of terminal guidance,” he said.
Once a target has been acquired, loitering munitions can adjust trajectory, and attack from the top-down, detonating upon impact.
An illustration shows a loitering munition attacking a container ship from above.
Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah – another member of Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ in the Middle East – has provided military training and assistance to the Houthis, military and regional experts say.
The Houthis have denied this. Hezbollah has not commented.
Eyal Pinko, a former senior official with Israel’s intelligence services until 2017 who now works at Bar Ilan University’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, said Hezbollah had in particular helped the Houthis to build their naval capabilities.
These include seven naval bases and 30 control posts along Yemen’s coast that have radar and electro-optical directors for better control of missile launches, said Pinko, who has studied the Houthis since 2004.
“It’s a massive coastal defense line for detection, and they’re also using AIS (ship tracking) systems, and also intelligence from Iran,” Pinko said. Automatic identification system, or AIS, is a transponder system that allows maritime authorities and companies to publicly track commercial shipping and identify vessels.
Among the unused weapons in the Houthis arsenal are Iranian-made Sadaf floating mines. While such munitions are relatively unsophisticated and easy to deploy, their impact on merchant shipping would be considerable if they were used in the Red Sea, said Pinko, who also consults on private-sector security.
Floating mines have been placed with great effect in the Black Sea during the war in Ukraine, sowing alarm amongst shipping companies and their insurers.
Pinpoint strikes
The United States, Britain, and other allied nations, have carried out strikes from the air and sea against Houthi military targets in Yemen in response to the attacks on shipping.
The first wave of strikes were conducted on Jan. 11: overnight attacks by the U.S. and Britain targeting almost 30 different locations in Yemen. Strikes continued throughout January.
The Pentagon says it has struck anti-ship missiles on the ground, as well as coastal radar and Houthi air surveillance capabilities and weapon storage sites.
Satellite images taken by Maxar Technologies the day after the Jan.11 strikes show the aftermath. In a compound on the Yemeni coast, bordering the southern Red Sea, craters and scorched earth can be seen. A similar image from Google Earth, taken by Airbus, shows structures in the same location in July last year.
One kilometer north along the coast, a similar compound was struck during the same wave of attacks on Jan.11. Images from Maxar Technologies show scattered debris and structures missing, when compared to a July 2 Airbus image.
Maxar also published images of locations on the outskirts of Sanaa airport showing what appears to be damage when compared to older images. One was described by Maxar as a radar facility, while the other location was unspecified.
Reuters was unable independently to determine the use of the sites or whether they were hit by Western missiles. However, both appear to have been targeted with accuracy.
CENTCOM has said U.S. strikes have hit a number of Houthi anti-ship missiles that were about to be launched.
“This is quite difficult from an intelligence and targeting perspective because you need to know where the missile is, where it’s moving, where they want to fire it from,” said Hinz, the IISS research fellow.
“That indicates that the Americans are having some success,” he added. “We still don’t know to what degree they’ve degraded the (Houthi) arsenal.”
Global Shipping Disruptions
Shipping companies have been re-routing some sailings via Africa’s southern Cape of Good Hope as the attacks continued. The disruption threatens to drive up delivery costs for goods, raising fears it could stoke global inflation.
Container shipping, which transports consumer goods, has been the segment most impacted by the attacks in the Red Sea due to fixed routes through the waterway.
In the period from the start of December last year to Jan. 30, 373 container ships are estimated to have re-routed around Africa, according to analysis from supply chain platform project44.
The number of container vessels sailing through the Suez Canal has fallen by about 65% since the attacks began, project44 data showed.
Because of the high risks, seafarers are signing agreements to receive double pay when entering the high-risk zones around Yemen, according to contract agreements viewed by Reuters and union officials.
“There is a fair degree of trepidation from the seafarers because quite a few ships are being hit,” said Stephen Cotton, General Secretary of the International Transport Workers’ Federation, the leading union for seafarers.
“The feedback from the captains is, certainly on the container trades, they’re much happier to go around the Cape.”
Vessel re-routing
An example of re-routing from Singapore to Rotterdam.
The Suez Canal is used by roughly one third of global container ship cargo. Redirecting ships around the southern tip of Africa is expected to cost up to $1 million in extra in fuel for every round trip between Asia and northern Europe.
Worries about potential disruption to Middle Eastern supply after the latest Red Sea attack drove oil prices higher in the first trading session of 2024.
Tallies of attacks, interceptions and air strikes are collated from MSCHOA, ACLED, UKMTO, CENTCOM, and news reports. Interception incidents may include multiple drones or missiles being shot down. Data is current as of Feb. 1.
The Maritime Security Centre – Horn of Africa (MSCHOA); International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS); Conflict Armament Research; World Bank; U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM); Janes; Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED); The Oil Companies International Marine Forum; United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO); Middle East Institute; United States Institute of Peace; U.S. Naval Institute; Maxar Technologies; LSEG; Shoei Kisen Kaisha.
World
Massive 11,000-carat ruby believed to be second-largest ever found in conflict-ridden country
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A massive ruby unearthed in Burma is being hailed as the second-largest ever discovered in the conflict-ridden country.
The ruby weighs about 11,000 carats — about 4.8 pounds — and was unearthed near Mogok in the Mandalay region, the center of Burma’s gem industry and an area affected by ongoing conflict, according to The Associated Press, citing state media.
The stone was found in mid-April, shortly after the country’s traditional New Year celebrations.
MAN STUMBLES ONTO RARE DIAMOND TREASURE DURING ARKANSAS PARK TRIP WITH FAMILY: ‘KNEW IT WAS DIFFERENT’
Burma’s newly discovered ruby is displayed at the president’s office in Naypyitaw on May 7, 2026. (Myanmar Military True News Information Team/AP)
Although it is roughly half the size of a 21,450-carat ruby discovered in 1996, experts say the new find could be more valuable because of its higher quality, the outlet reported.
It has a purplish-red color with slight yellow tones, moderate transparency and a highly reflective surface.
Burmese President Min Aung Hlaing and his cabinet have already inspected the stone in the country’s capital of Naypyidaw.
ONCE-IN-A-CENTURY TREASURES DATING BACK 4,500 YEARS UNEARTHED IN LEGENDARY CITY
Burmese officials inspect a newly discovered ruby at the president’s office in Naypyidaw on May 7, 2026. (Myanmar Military True News Information Team/AP)
Burma produces up to 90% of the world’s rubies, mostly from Mogok and nearby Mong Hsu.
The gem trade — both legal and illegal — is a major source of income in the country.
However, rights groups, including Global Witness, have long urged jewelers to avoid buying Burmese gemstones, saying the trade helps fund the country’s military governments, according to The Associated Press.
RARE 10-CARAT BLUE DIAMOND AMONG $100M WORTH OF GEMS GOING UP FOR AUCTION
This photo taken on May 16, 2019, shows miners working in a ruby mine in Mogok, north of Mandalay. (Ye Aung Thu/AFP via Getty Images)
Gem mining also finances ethnic armed groups fighting for autonomy, contributing to Burma’s long-running conflicts.
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The mining regions remain unstable.
Mogok was seized in July 2024 by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), an ethnic armed group. Control later returned to the military under a ceasefire deal brokered by China late last year.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
World
‘We need to make up our mind’: EU split over direct talks with Russia
The European Union is still struggling to decide if, how, and when it wants to talk directly with Russia to advance negotiations towards a lasting peace in Ukraine, as member states remain split on whether the benefits would outweigh the risks.
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The absence of political unity, an indispensable precondition for such a significant undertaking, was laid bare on Monday during a meeting of foreign affairs ministers in Brussels, where several representatives urged fresh sanctions rather than dialogue.
“(Vladimir) Putin is really not interested in real peace talks yet. So we need to put more pressure on Russia in order to change the calculus and make him interested,” Sweden’s Maria Malmer Stenergard said upon arrival.
“What will we discuss? What will be our demands? Can we agree on our demands on Russia?” said Lithuania’s Kęstutis Budrys. “What is our strategy and agenda, and what’s the goal? What’s the end state? It’s not dialogue as dialogue per se.”
Italy’s Antonio Tajani said the EU was “not at war” with Russia and it was “important” to be part of the ongoing negotiations, while Austria’s Beate Meinl-Reisinger noted it was time for Europeans to become active participants through their own team.
“We need to make up our mind,” said Finland’s Elina Valtonen.
The only point on which ministers agreed was that Europeans themselves should pick their envoy. The Kremlin’s suggestion to nominate Gerhard Schröder, the former German chancellor who has worked for Russian energy firms, was unequivocally dismissed.
At the end of the meeting, High Representative Kaja Kallas acknowledged that the topic was not yet mature and required further reflection among governments.
“The EU has always supported attempts to achieve a just and lasting peace,” Kallas said.
“For Europe to take a more active role, we must agree amongst ourselves what we want to talk to Russia about and what our red lines are.”
The High Representative, who previously said the EU should not “humiliate” itself by seeking direct talks with Russia, has been trying to bridge gaps among capitals with a draft document outlining the concessions Moscow should make.
The confidential document will be discussed later this month when foreign ministers meet again for an informal gathering in Cyprus. However, given the considerable divergences, a unified position is unlikely to emerge any time soon.
“We are not there entering the negotiations in any way,” Kallas cautioned. “Right now, we don’t see that Russia is really negotiating in good faith.”
If, how and when
The question of whether the EU should engage directly with Russia to end its war of aggression has been popping up in and out of the conversation since US President Donald Trump unilaterally launched a diplomatic process to end the war in Ukraine.
Earlier this year, French President Emmanuel Macron, who last spoke with Putin in July 2025, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni publicly called on the bloc to change policy, arguing the fate of European security could not be left in American hands.
The debate lost traction after Macron’s advisor, Emmanuel Bonne, travelled to the Kremlin for exploratory talks and was given the cold shoulder.
But it has once again risen to prominence as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, which has shifted Washington’s focus and slowed down the mediation in Ukraine.
Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who seems increasingly frustrated with the White House’s course of action, asked Europeans to take a more active role.
“We need to find a workable diplomatic format, and Europe must be at the table in any talks with Russia,” Zelenskyy said at a summit in Armenia. “It would be good to develop one common European voice for talks with Russia.”
A few days later, European Council President António Costa said there was “potential” for the bloc to negotiate one-on-one with the Kremlin.
“I’m talking with the 27 national leaders to see the best way to organise ourselves and to identify what we need effectively to discuss with Russia when it comes to the right moment to do this,” Costa said in Florence, Italy.
The European Commission also weighed in. “We can see the merit of having one single figure speaking on behalf of the 27,” a spokesperson said.
Both Costa and the Commission were quick to note that direct talks would only make sense once the Kremlin showed willingness to compromise and make concessions. Putin insists that Kyiv give up the entire Donbas region and that the West recognise the occupied territories aslegally Russian — both demands that Zelenskyy firmly rejects.
Brussels is keen to avoid creating the impression that it is attempting to replace Washington, which might give Trump a reason to walk away for good.
On Monday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said the EU should not pursue “alternative peace talks” but rather play a “complementary” role in the ongoing process.
Russia’s relentless bombardment of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure, including a kindergarten last week, is another factor that makes officials and diplomats think twice.
Instead, some capitals prefer to wait and weaken Russia’s hand at the negotiating table. The country has begun to show signs of economic strain after 20 rounds of sanctions and was forced to pare down its Victory Day parade over fears of Ukraine’s strikes.
At the same time, Kyiv’s standing has been reinforced by the approval of the EU’s €90 billion assistance loan and the signing of multiple defence deals with Gulf countries.
“Russia must be pushed back to Russia,” Estonia’s Margus Tsahkna said. “Putin is not ready to talk about a lasting and just peace at all.”
World
What Middle Powers Fear from the Trump-Xi Summit
Poland will soon host production lines for South Korean tanks. Australia is buying warships from Japan. Canada will send uranium to India, while India offers cruise missiles to Vietnam, and Brazil builds military transport planes for the United Arab Emirates.
All of these deals were sealed in the past few weeks. Each one represents an attempt by middle powers to protect themselves as the conflict in Iran throttles global energy supplies, and as a high-stakes summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping of China looms.
Global polls show the world has little trust in the United States and China. Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi have both used their enormous leverage over trade and security to coerce or punish. And in response, smaller nations are behaving as if they are stuck in “Godzilla” or “Dune” — moving quietly in small groups, trying not to provoke the wrath of petulant giants.
“It’s fifty shades of hedging,” said Richard Heydarian, a Filipino political scientist at Oxford University. Or, as Ja Ian Chong, a security analyst in Singapore put it, “No party wants to cross Beijing and now Washington, too.”
For countries watching from afar, dread and hope hover over the Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, which is scheduled for this week. In Asia, which has been hit hardest and fastest by oil shortages caused by the war and China’s tight control of oil-product exports, the mood is particularly grim. Interviews with officials, and statements from leaders traveling the globe to secure trade and defense deals, suggest that most middle powers feel overwhelmed by the deteriorating world order.
Many believe the summit carries more potential for harm than help. And Mr. Trump’s gut-driven approach to complex issues is the main source of anxiety.
For months, officials in Asia have worried that the president might be too eager to make a deal with Mr. Xi, ending weapons sales to Taiwan or agreeing to softened policy language that could make it easier for China to undermine the democratic island.
“That would be the biggest nightmare,” said one Taiwanese official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal government matters. He insisted that reduced support from the U.S. was unlikely.
But any concession on Taiwan could lead other American partners to fear abandonment. Beijing’s push for compliance on contested territory elsewhere would be bolstered, from the border with India to the South China Sea.
Vietnamese officials said that if President Trump makes a conciliatory gesture or flatters Xi, even without bigger compromises, China will gain leeway to press harder on smaller countries.
Another concern being discussed across the region: that Mr. Trump might alter long-term security plans in exchange for better economic terms with China.
Mr. Trump’s decision to redirect a carrier strike group from the Pacific and munitions from South Korea for the war in Iran may have created momentum for broader redeployments. When the Pentagon announced it would pull at least 5,000 troops from Germany after Mr. Trump expressed annoyance with the German chancellor, allies in Asia were again reminded how quickly collective deterrence can be weakened.
Mr. Trump has threatened in the past to make troop withdrawals from Japan, which hosts around 53,000 American military personnel — more than any other country — and South Korea, where another 24,000 Americans are stationed. If he could get something big from Mr. Xi for a drawdown, would he turn down the deal?
Analysts noted that plans opposed by China, such as AUKUS, a pact between Australia, England and the U.S. designed to counter Beijing’s influence by equipping Australia with nuclear-powered submarines and advanced technology, could also be suddenly canceled.
“The sense that U.S. allies have to look to one another because they can no longer look to America is very real,” said Hugh White, a former Australian intelligence official who teaches strategic studies at the Australia National University.
That sentiment is much stronger than “the cautious public language” of national leaders might suggest, he added.
European and Asian officials often talk privately in frank terms about giving up their faith in America, prompting a no-turning-back effort to diversify away from the United States. In casual discussions with reporters, they can sound a lot like Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada, who received a standing ovation in Davos this year for a speech that declared, “We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.”
But in public, they’re more circumspect. Some officials admit their countries are trying to buy time and evade Mr. Trump’s fits of pique, while continuing the performance of imperial fealty.
South Korean officials have simply expressed resignation over American military diversions, after making clear they felt betrayed in 2004, when President George W. Bush announced plans to move troops from Asia to the war in Iraq. Australia, Taiwan and Japan publicly and repeatedly stress the value of American leadership without caveats — even as U.S. tariffs and the war Mr. Trump started with Iran kneecap their economies.
Walking with Caution
No one wants to be seen stepping out of line.
Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, has been bolder than most in trying to foster stronger relationships with other countries. Yet even as she crisscrossed the region promoting military cooperation, officials in Tokyo worried about how Washington would view her efforts.
“The Japanese don’t want Takaichi’s security cooperation and tour, especially to Australia, to be seen as a version of Mark Carney,” said Michael J. Green, the author of several books on Japan, and chief executive of the United States Study Centre at the University of Sydney.
Others have apparently reached the same conclusion. Mr. Carney’s recent visits to India and Australia did not yield strong statements from their leaders echoing his criticism of great power rivalry or his warning that if middle powers are “not at the table, we’re on the menu.”
At the same time, many countries — including some that are benefiting from the thickening of middle-power bonds — have been careful not to anger the world’s other hegemon, China.
Nations managing their own disputes with Beijing, such as Indonesia, have done less to rally around Japan than some in Tokyo would have liked, since Ms. Takaichi became embroiled in a diplomatic crisis after telling her Parliament that if China attacked Taiwan, Japan could respond militarily.
Vietnamese officials even pressed Ms. Takaichi to avoid directly criticizing China in her speech at a university on May 2 in Hanoi, according to diplomats who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe sensitive discussions. It is not clear if adjustments were made. Chinese officials later condemned her diplomatic efforts as “war preparation.”
And yet, in a sign of how middle powers are still doing more while saying less, the two countries signed six cooperation agreements, including one on satellite data sharing and another to secure deliveries for Vietnam’s largest oil refinery, potentially easing shortages.
“The U.S. has become more unreliable, so it makes sense to try to develop alternatives,” said Robert O. Keohane, an international relations professor at Princeton University. Even if what’s been formed so far is insufficient, he added, “having a weak alternative is better than having no alternative at all.”
Reporting was contributed by Tung Ngo from Hanoi, Vietnam; Javier C. Hernández from Tokyo; Amy Chang Chien from Taipei, Taiwan; Jim Tankersley from Berlin; Ian Austen from Ottawa; and Matina Stevis-Gridneff from Toronto.
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