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Ceasefire deal: What do we know about Israel’s captives held in Gaza?

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Ceasefire deal: What do we know about Israel’s captives held in Gaza?

When Hamas-led Palestinian fighters attacked southern Israel on October 7, 2023, and took about 250 people captive, it set in motion an issue that instantly.

0became vitally important to much of Israeli society.

The captives immediately became a symbol for Israelis, used to justify Israel’s brutal war on Gaza – which has now killed more than 46,800 Palestinians. But the topic has also divided Israelis, with many, particularly those supportive of the opposition to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, insisting that the government has not done enough to secure a deal that would lead to their release.

Now that a ceasefire deal has been agreed upon, the nightmare of captivity could be about to end for those held in Gaza.

How many captives will be released from Gaza?

There are believed to be approximately 100 Israeli captives left in Gaza, all of whom are expected to be released if the deal between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas is completely implemented.

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But not all will be released at once. In the first six-week phase of the deal, 33 captives are expected to be released on a gradual basis in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. The Israeli captives to be released in this phase include some who are ill or wounded, as well as female soldiers and men over 50.

Egypt has said that those released in the first phase will be exchanged for 1,890 Palestinian prisoners. Israel has said that it will release 95 Palestinians, all women and children, on the first day of the ceasefire on Sunday.

The rest of the captives, all believed to be male soldiers, will be released in later phases of the ceasefire deal, in exchange for an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners.

What do we know about the identities of the captives being released?

No official list of the Israeli captives being released in the first phase has been published yet, and while the identities of the captives still in Gaza are known, it is unclear who is still alive.

In fact, on Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the ceasefire would not begin until Israel received the list of the captives who would be released.

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Hamas has said that a number of Israeli captives have been killed in Israeli attacks on the locations where they had been held, but videos have also been released with messages from some of the captives.

While all of the remaining captives are Israeli, some are dual-nationals, including from the United States, Argentina and Germany.

Five of the captives are believed to be female soldiers who were captured during raids on October 7.

And two of the captives who are expected to be released in the first phase are Israelis who were taken captive in Gaza before October 7, and who have spent years in the enclave.

What will the handover process be like?

While some captives were freed by Israeli forces in military operations that killed dozens of Palestinian civilians, more than 100 – the vast majority of those who have left Gaza – were released in a temporary ceasefire in November 2023.

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During that prisoner exchange, the captives released were transferred by Palestinian fighters to the Red Cross, and then handed over to Israeli forces.

Israel has prepared medical teams to receive the captives, and the head of the health team at the Hostages Families Forum, Hagai Levine, expects that many will have cardiovascular and respiratory issues after having spent so long underground in tunnels.

How important has their captivity been in Israel?

The topic of the captives has been a central one in Israel and among pro-Israel supporters since the war began.

The release of the captives has been one of the primary war goals of Israel, but it also arguably contradicts one of the other stated goals, the complete defeat of Hamas.

This is because Hamas has offered to release the captives since the war began as part of a deal that would end the war, a demand that the Israeli prime minister had consistently refused until recently.

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In fact, Israel’s far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has declared that he has been able to use his political power to stop any deal from taking place over the past year, in essence placing the goal of defeating Hamas and building illegal Israeli settlements in Gaza above the release of the captives in a prisoner exchange. Ben-Gvir is now expected to follow through on his promise to resign if the deal is implemented.

However, the return of the captives is the primary demand for many Israelis. Their pictures are displayed on posters across Israel, and the “bring them home now” demand is regularly heard at protests. A plaza in Tel Aviv has been renamed “Hostages Square”, and is a focal point for demonstrations.

Family members of captives have had frequent run-ins with members of Israel’s government, and a movement representing them has promised to continue to push for the release of the captives. “We will not allow them [far-right ministers] to sabotage the full implementation of the deal,” a speaker at an event supporting the ceasefire deal said on Saturday.

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‘If it expires, it expires,’ Trump tells NYT about US-Russia nuclear treaty

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‘If it expires, it expires,’ Trump tells NYT about US-Russia nuclear treaty
  • Trump appears little concerned with treaty expiration
  • Treaty expires on February 5
  • Putin has offered to keep limits if US does
  • China says it would not be ‘reasonable nor realistic’ to ask Beijing to join the treaty
WASHINGTON, Jan 8 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he would allow the last U.S.-Russia strategic arms control treaty to expire without accepting an offer from Moscow to voluntarily extend its caps on deployments of the world’s most powerful nuclear weapons, according to remarks released on Thursday.

“If it expires, it expires,” Trump said of the 2010 New START accord in an interview he gave to the New York Times on Wednesday. “We’ll just do a better agreement.”

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Arms control advocates fear the world’s two biggest nuclear powers will begin deploying strategic warheads beyond the pact’s limits after it expires on February 5, hastening an erosion of the global arms control regime.

“There are plenty of advocates in the Trump administration … for doing exactly that,” said Thomas Countryman, a former top State Department arms control official who chairs the board of the Arms Control Association advocacy group.

A White House spokesperson referred Reuters to Trump’s comments when asked if he will accept an offer, opens new tab made in September by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the sides to voluntarily maintain the limits on strategic nuclear weapons deployments after New START expires.
Trump said in July he would like to maintain the limits set out in the treaty after it expires.

The agreement limits the U.S. and Russia to deploying no more than 1,550 warheads on 700 delivery vehicles – missiles, bombers and submarines.

New START cannot be extended. As written, it allowed one extension and Putin and former U.S. President Joe Biden agreed to roll it over for five years in 2021.

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Trump told the New York Times that China, which has the world’s fastest-growing strategic nuclear force, should be included in a treaty that replaces New START.

Beijing, seen by the U.S. as its main global rival, has spurned that proposal since Trump promoted it in his first administration, asserting the Russian and U.S. nuclear forces dwarf its arsenal.

“You probably want to get a couple of other players involved also,” Trump said.

The Chinese Embassy in Washington said it would be “neither reasonable nor realistic to ask China to join the nuclear disarmament negotiations with the U.S. and Russia.”

“China always keeps its nuclear strength at the minimum level required by national security, and never engages in arms race with anyone,” spokesperson Liu Pengyu said when reached for comment.

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A Pentagon report last month said China is likely to have loaded more than 100 intercontinental ballistic missiles across its latest three silo fields and has no desire for arms control talks.

New START has been under serious strain since Moscow announced in February 2023 it was halting participation in procedures used to verify compliance with its terms, citing U.S. support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

The U.S. followed suit that June, suspending its participation in inspections and data exchanges, although both sides have continued observing the pact’s limits.

Reporting by Jonathan Landay and Jasper Ward in Washington; Editing by David Ljunggren, Rosalba O’Brien and Chris Reese

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Venezuela teeters as guerrilla groups, cartels exploit Maduro power vacuum

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Venezuela teeters as guerrilla groups, cartels exploit Maduro power vacuum

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Venezuela is teetering on the edge after the U.S. capture and arrest of former President Nicolás Maduro, as armed militias, guerrilla groups and criminal networks threaten a path toward stability, according to reports.

As interim President Delcy Rodríguez assumes control, backed by President Trump’s administration, analysts have warned that the country is completely saturated with heavily armed groups capable of derailing any progress toward stability.

“All of the armed groups have the power to sabotage any type of transition just by the conditions of instability that they can create,” Andrei Serbin Pont, a military analyst and head of the Buenos Aires-based think tank Cries, told The Financial Times.

“There are parastate armed groups across the entirety of Venezuela’s territory,” he said.

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Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who, according to the State Department, leads the Cartel de los Soles, beside members of the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang in an apartment building in Aurora, Colorado. (Jesus Vargas/Getty Images; Edward Romero)

Experts say Rodríguez must keep the regime’s two most powerful hardliners onside: Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino.

“The focus is now on Diosdado Cabello,” Venezuelan military strategist José García told Reuters, “because he is the most ideological, violent and unpredictable element of the Venezuelan regime.”

“Delcy has to walk a tightrope,” said Phil Gunson, a Crisis Group analyst in Caracas.

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“They are not in a position to deliver any kind of deal with Trump unless they can get the approval of the people with the guns, who are basically Padrino and Cabello.”

Since Maduro’s removal, government-aligned militias known as “colectivos” have been deployed across Caracas and other cities to enforce order and suppress dissent.

“The future is uncertain, the colectivos have weapons, the Colombian guerrilla is already here in Venezuela, so we don’t know what’s going to happen, time will tell,” Oswaldo, a 69-year-old shop owner, told The Telegraph.

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Demonstrators critical of the government clash with the security forces of the state. After the last conflict-laden days, interim president Guaido, with the support of his supporters, wants to continue exerting pressure on head of state Maduro. (Rafael Hernandez/picture alliance/Getty Images)

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As previously reported by Fox News Digital, armed motorcyclists and masked enforcers have erected checkpoints in the capital, searching civilians’ phones and vehicles for signs of opposition to the U.S. raid.

“That environment of instability plays into the hands of armed actors,” Serbin Pont added.

Outside the capital, guerrilla groups and organized crime syndicates are exploiting the power vacuum along Venezuela’s borders and in its resource-rich interior.

Guerrillas now operate along Venezuela’s 2,219-kilometer border with Colombia and control illegal mining near the Orinoco oil belt.

The National Liberation Army (ELN), a Colombian Marxist guerrilla group with thousands of fighters and designated a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, has operated in Venezuela as a paramilitary force.

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FROM SANCTIONS TO SEIZURE: WHAT MADURO’S CAPTURE MEANS FOR VENEZUELA’S ECONOMY

Armed colectivos deploy across Venezuelan cities while guerrilla groups control borders following former President Nicolás Maduro’s capture. (Juancho Torres/Anadolu via Getty Image)

Elizabeth Dickson, Crisis Group’s deputy director for Latin America, said the ELN “in Venezuela … has essentially operated as a paramilitary force, aligned with the interests of the Maduro government up until now.”

Carlos Arturo Velandia, a former ELN commander, also told the Financial Times that if Venezuela’s power bloc fractures, the group would side with the most radical wing of Chavismo.

Colectivos also function as armed enforcers of political loyalty.

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“We are the ones being called on to defend this revolutionary process radically, without hesitation — us colectivos are the fundamental tool to continue this fight,” said Luis Cortéz, commander of the Colectivo Catedral Combativa.

“We are always, and always will be, fighting and in the streets.”

Other armed actors include the Segunda Marquetalia, a splinter group of Colombia’s former FARC rebels. Both guerrilla groups work alongside local crime syndicates known as “sistemas,” which have ties to politicians.

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The Tren de Aragua cartel, designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S., has also expanded across Venezuela and into Colombia, Chile and the U.S.

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As reported by Fox News Digital, an unsealed indictment alleges Maduro “participates in, perpetuates, and protects a culture of corruption” involving drug trafficking with groups including Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel, the ELN, FARC factions and Tren de Aragua, with most of the problematic groups named.

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Trump says meeting Iran’s ‘Crown Prince’ Pahlavi would not be appropriate

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Trump says meeting Iran’s ‘Crown Prince’ Pahlavi would not be appropriate

US president signals he is not ready to back the Israel-aligned opposition figure to lead Iran in case of regime change.

United States President Donald Trump has ruled out meeting with Iran’s self-proclaimed Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, suggesting that Washington is not ready to back a successor to the Iranian government, should it collapse.

On Thursday, Trump called Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah who was toppled by the Islamic revolution of 1979, a “nice person”. But Trump added that, as president, it would not be appropriate to meet with him.

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“I think that we should let everybody go out there and see who emerges,” Trump told The Hugh Hewitt Show podcast. “I’m not sure necessarily that it would be an appropriate thing to do.”

The US-based Pahlavi, who has close ties to Israel, leads the monarchist faction of the fragmented Iranian opposition.

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Trump’s comments signal that the US has not backed Pahlavi’s offer to “lead [a] transition” in governance in Iran, should the current system collapse.

The Iranian government is grappling with protests across several parts of the country.

Iranian authorities cut off access to the internet on Thursday in an apparent move to suppress the protest movement as Pahlavi called for more demonstrations.

The US president had previously warned that he would intervene if the Iranian government targets protesters. He renewed that threat on Thursday.

“They’re doing very poorly. And I have let them know that if they start killing people – which they tend to do during their riots, they have lots of riots – if they do it, we’re going to hit them very hard,” Trump said.

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Iranian protests started last month in response to a deepening economic crisis as the value of the local currency, the rial, plunged amid suffocating US sanctions.

The economy-focused demonstrations started sporadically across the country, but they quickly morphed into broader antigovernment protests and appear to be gaining momentum, leading to the internet blackout.

Pahlavi expressed gratitude to Trump and claimed that “millions of Iranians” protested on Thursday night.

“I want to thank the leader of the free world, President Trump, for reiterating his promise to hold the regime to account,” he wrote in a social media post.

“It is time for others, including European leaders, to follow his lead, break their silence, and act more decisively in support of the people of Iran.”

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Last month, Trump also threatened to attack Iran again if it rebuilds its nuclear or missile programmes.

The US bombed Iran’s three main nuclear facilities in June as part of a war that Israel launched against the country without provocation.

On top of its economic and political crises, Iran has faced environmental hurdles, including severe water shortages, deepening its domestic unrest.

Iran has also been dealt major blows to its foreign policy as its network of allies has shrunk over the past two years.

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was toppled by armed opposition forces in December 2024; Hezbollah was weakened by Israeli attacks; and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has been abducted by the US.

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But Iran’s leaders have continued to dismiss US threats. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei doubled down on his defiant rhetoric after the US raid in Caracas on Saturday.

“We will not give in to the enemy,” Khamenei wrote in a social media post. “We will bring the enemy to its knees.”

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