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Brussels’ green light of Poland’s recovery plan reveals loopholes

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Brussels’ green light of Poland’s recovery plan reveals loopholes

Poland is ready to obtain the primary tranches of the EU’s restoration fund whereas nationwide judges stay below the results of the disciplinary chamber of the Supreme Courtroom, a controversial physique that’s largely seen as a software of presidency encroachment upon the judiciary and that the European Courtroom of Justice has deemed incompatible with EU legislation.

Poland had requested a complete of €35.4 billion – €23.9 billion in grants and €11.5 billion in low-cost loans – from the bloc’s collective fund, designed again in 2020 to climate the financial disaster triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Polish plan was blocked for greater than a 12 months over persisting issues that judicial independence was below risk by the encroachment of the manager and legislative powers.

However after months of forwards and backwards between Brussels and Warsaw, the European Fee introduced on Wednesday the official endorsement of the Polish programme.

Throughout inside deliberations, 5 EU Commissioners, together with Frans Timmermans and Margrethe Vestager, voted in opposition to or voiced reservations concerning the government’s approval, Euronews has discovered.

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In alternate for this contentious inexperienced gentle, Poland has agreed to hold out two key judicial reforms earlier than any cost of restoration funds is processed:

  • To reform the disciplinary regime for judges and exchange it with a brand new physique.
  • To evaluation the instances of the judges affected by the rulings of the disciplinary chamber.

Relating to the primary demand, the Polish authorities has already tabled a potential substitute: a “Chamber of Skilled Duty” that might be tasked with vetting magistrates, fairly than punishing them.

Brussels has stated the brand new physique should adjust to EU legislation requirements, however Iustitia, the biggest affiliation of judges in Poland, has warned the proposed chamber “won’t stop the Polish government to exert management over judges [and] thus additional undermining their independence.”

Nevertheless, it is within the second milestone the place a possible loophole seems: Brussels has requested Poland to present disciplined judges the correct to have their instances reviewed by an neutral and unbiased courtroom.

The current chamber has the ability to impose fines, wage cuts, suspensions and the lifting of immunity.

There are about 50 disciplinary proceedings open in the mean time, with some judges going through a number of instances, in accordance with the European Affiliation of Judges (EAJ). “For instance, decide Waldemar Žurek has 20 proceedings in opposition to him,” EAJ stated in a press release offered to Euronews.

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Till not too long ago, the Fee had insisted on the “conditio sine qua non” to reinstate unlawfully dismissed judges. Because it stands now, Poland solely has to show the authorized evaluation has begun, not that it has concluded or corrected the wrongdoing.

“The evaluation course of might be began on the request of an affected decide,” stated an EU official talking on situation of anonymity. “The primary listening to can happen in three months after the request and the entire course of might be accomplished in 12 months.”

“Some judges is likely to be re-instated, some others may not,” one other official stated.

The chamber was deemed unlawful by the European Courtroom of Justice, which stated its functioning could “trigger severe and irreversible injury to the EU authorized order”. The ECJ then ordered the short-term suspension of the physique and the reversal of many of the choices adopted to date.

The European Courtroom of Human Rights additionally ordered interim measures within the case of a number of Polish judges who, after making use of EU case-law, had been confronted with prison expenses of “abuse of energy.”

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‘We aren’t on the finish of the highway’

Since Poland is allowed to make two cost requests per 12 months, the settlement means Warsaw is more likely to obtain the primary two tranches of EU restoration funds – and maybe even the primary three – whereas judges stay below the results of the disciplined regime. 

The primary tranche is anticipated to be value barely over €4 billion, combining grants and low-interest loans, and can be disbursed earlier than the tip of the 12 months.

The following cost, scheduled for the primary quarter of 2023, can be related in measurement. A 3rd disbursement may happen within the second half of 2023.

The Fee has negotiated a 3rd milestone to make sure the judicial evaluation of affected judges has wrapped up in accordance with EU requirements, however the provision will not be triggered till the final quarter of 2023, giving Warsaw ample time to treatment the chamber’s rulings whereas money retains flowing in.

“A primary cost will solely be potential when the brand new legislation is in drive and ticks all of the containers below this contract,” European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen stated in a tip to Warsaw.

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“As well as, Poland should show by the tip of 2023 that each one unlawfully dismissed judges ought to by then have been reinstated. That is progress, however we aren’t on the finish of the highway on the rule of legislation in Poland.”

Standing subsequent to her, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki struck a defiant tone and vowed he would “actually not enable anarchy to take over our judicial system.”

“I’ve my very own opinion concerning the judiciary earlier than 2025 and the judges appointed by communist authorities,” he stated. “Madame President could be very effectively conscious of my opinion on this respect.”

‘The wrongdoings haven’t been amended’

As a part of the Polish plan, Brussels has included a non-reversal clause to ensure the federal government doesn’t overturn the agreed-upon reforms. If the settlement is breached, funds can be halted.

However this isn’t sufficient for Juan Fernando López Aguilar, a Spanish MEP who chairs the European Parliament’s committee on civic liberties and justice and has been a frequent critic of the Polish ruling social gathering

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“Poland shouldn’t be given entry to EU funds till Poland reveals willingness to conform absolutely with the rulings of the European Courtroom of Justice,” López Aguilar instructed Euronews.

The MEP believes Ursula von der Leyen has betrayed her personal phrases. The Fee president had prior to now unveiled three circumstances to unlock the Polish plan, together with the re-institution of dismissed judges.

“Judges had been dismissed as a result of they utilized EU legislation. That is unacceptable,” López Aguilar stated. “These wrongdoings haven’t been amended by the Polish authorities. There are not any adequate ensures.”

From 2022 to 2026, Poland is ready to obtain €35.4 billion in grants and loans to execute 49 reforms and 52 funding initiatives, 42% of which can be dedicated to the inexperienced transition.

On high of that, Poland is entitled to an additional €25 billion in loans.

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The deal to unlock the restoration fund doesn’t tackle the 2021 ruling by the Polish Constitutional Courtroom that instantly challenged the primacy of EU legislation and raised fears of a authorized “Polexit.”

EU officers insist the commitments made with Warsaw are sufficiently sturdy to guard the EU’s monetary pursuits and that disputes centred on the rule of legislation ought to be addressed “by means of infringement procedures, not the restoration fund.”

Brussels has launched a number of authorized instances in opposition to Poland lately in a bid to place a break on the disciplinary regime. These instances have reached the ECJ, with one leading to a €1-million-per-day tremendous on Warsaw for continued authorized disobedience.

“If Poland complies with the [recovery plan’s] milestones absolutely and faithfully, sooner fairly than later the Fee will deliberate on the infringement procedures,” to carry them to an in depth, an EU official stated.

“However till then, the instances are nonetheless there.”

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After the Polish inexperienced gentle, solely two member states stay with out an authorized restoration plan: Hungary, whose programme is on standby over rule of legislation issues, and the Netherlands, who’s but to submit its blueprint.

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Israel keeping its ‘eyes open’ for Iranian attacks during Trump transition period, ambassador says

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Israel keeping its ‘eyes open’ for Iranian attacks during Trump transition period, ambassador says

Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon tells Fox News Digital that his country is keeping its “eyes open” for any potential aggression from Iran during the Trump transition period, adding it would be a “mistake” for the Islamic Republic to carry out an attack. 

The comments come after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi vowed earlier this week that Iran would retaliate against Israel for the strategic airstrikes it carried out against Tehran on Oct. 26. Araghchi was quoted in Iranian media saying “we have not given up our right to react, and we will react in our time and in the way we see fit.” 

“I would advise him not to challenge us. We have already shown our capabilities. We have proved that they are vulnerable. We can actually target any location in Iran. They know that,” Danon told Fox News Digital. 

“So I would advise them not to make that mistake. If they think that now, because of the transition period, they can take advantage of it, they are wrong,” he added. “We are keeping our eyes open and we are ready for all scenarios.” 

ICC REJECTS ISRAELI APPEALS, ISSUES ARREST WARRANTS FOR BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, YOAV GALLANT 

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Israel’s U.N. Ambassador Danny Danon tells Fox News Digital that his country is “ready for all scenarios” coming from Iran during the Trump transition period. (Fox News)

Danon says he believes one of the most important challenges for the incoming Trump administration will be the way the U.S. deals with Iran. 

“Regarding the new administration, I think the most important challenge will be the way you challenge Iran, the aggression, the threat of the Iranian regime. I believe that the U.S. will have to go back to a leading position on this issue,” he told Fox News Digital. 

“We are fighting the same enemies, the enemies of the United States of America. When you look at the Iranians, the Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas, all those bad actors that are coming against Israel… that is the enemy of the United States. So I think every American should support us and understand what we are doing now,” Danon also said. 

IRAN HIDING MISSILE, DRONE PROGRAMS UNDER GUISE OF COMMERCIAL FRONT TO EVADE SANCTIONS 

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House Speaker Mike Johnson and Rep. Elise Stefanik

Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., is acknowledged by President-elect Donald Trump alongside Speaker of the House Mike Johnson during a meeting with House Republicans at the Hyatt Regency hotel in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 13, 2024. Stefanik has been chosen by President-elect Donald Trump as the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. (Allison Robbert/Pool via REUTERS)

Danon spoke as the U.S. vetoed a draft resolution against Israel at the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday. 

The resolution, which was overseen by Algeria, sought an “immediate, unconditional and permanent cease-fire” to be imposed on Israel. The resolution did not guarantee the release of the hostages still being held by Hamas within Gaza. 

Israeli military planes

Israeli Air Force planes departing for the strikes in Iran on Oct. 26. (IDF Spokesman’s Unit)

 

“It was a shameful resolution because… it didn’t have the linkage between the cease-fire and the call [for] the release of the hostages. And I want to thank the United States for taking a strong position and vetoing this resolution,” Danon said. “I think it sent a very clear message that the U.S. stands with its strongest ally with Israel. And, you know, it was shameful, too, to hear the voices of so many ambassadors speaking about a cease-fire but abandoning the 101 hostages. We will not forget them. We will never abandon them. We will continue to fight until we bring all of them back home.” 

Fox News’ Benjamin Weinthal contributed to this report. 

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Fact-check: What do we know about Russia’s nuclear arsenal?

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Fact-check: What do we know about Russia’s nuclear arsenal?

Moscow has lowered the bar for using nuclear weapons and fired a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead into Ukraine, heightening tensions with the West.

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Russia’s nuclear arsenal is under fresh scrutiny after an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of carrying an atomic warhead was fired into Ukrainian territory.

President Vladimir Putin says the unprecedented attack using the so-called “Oreshnik” missile is a direct response to Ukraine’s use of US and UK-made missiles to strike targets deep in Russian territory.

He has also warned that the military facilities of Western countries allowing Ukraine to use their weapons to strike Russia could become targets.

The escalation comes days after the Russian President approved small but significant changes to his country’s nuclear doctrine, which would allow a nuclear response to a conventional, non-nuclear attack on Russian territory.

While Western officials, including US defence secretary Lloyd Austin, have dismissed the notion that Moscow’s use of nuclear weapons is imminent, experts warn that recent developments could increase the possibility of nuclear weapons use.

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Here’s what we know about Russia’s inventory of atomic weapons.

How big is Russia’s nuclear arsenal?

Russia holds more nuclear warheads than any other nation at an estimated 5,580, which amounts to 47% of global stockpiles, according to data from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS).

But only an estimated 1,710 of those weapons are deployed, a fraction more than the 1,670 deployed by the US. 

Both nations have the necessary nuclear might to destroy each other several times over, and considerably more atomic warheads than the world’s seven other nuclear nations: China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan and the United Kingdom.

Of Moscow’s deployed weapons, an estimated 870 are on land-based ballistic missiles, 640 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and potentially 200 at heavy bomber bases.

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According to FAS, there are no signs Russia is significantly scaling up its nuclear arsenal, but the federation does warn of a potential surge in the future as the country replaces single-warhead missiles with those capable of carrying multiple warheads.

Russia is also steadily modernising its nuclear arsenal.

What could trigger a Russian nuclear response?

Moscow’s previous 2020 doctrine stated that its nuclear weapons could be used in response to an attack using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction “when the very existence of the state is put under threat.”

Now, the conditions under which a nuclear response could be launched have changed in three crucial ways:

  1. Russia will consider using nuclear weapons in the case of a strike on its territory using conventional weapons, such as cruise missiles, drones and tactical aircraft.
  2. It could launch a nuclear attack in response to an aggression by a non-nuclear state acting “with the participation or support of a nuclear state”, as is the case for Ukraine.
  3. Moscow will also apply the same conditions to an attack on Belarus’ territory, in agreement with President Lukashenko.

Is there a rising nuclear threat?

The size of the world’s nuclear stockpiles has rapidly decreased amid the post-Cold War détente. The Soviet Union had some 40,000 warheads, and the US around 30,000, when stockpiles peaked during the 1960s and 70s.

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But FAS warns that while the overall number is still in decline, operational warheads are on the rise once again. More countries are also upgrading their missiles to deploy multiple warheads.

“In nearly all of the nuclear-armed states there are either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces,” Hans M. Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), said in June this year.

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Is the West reacting?

When Putin approved the updated nuclear protocol last week, many Western leaders dismissed it as sabre rattling.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Germany and its partners would “not be intimidated” and accused Putin of “playing with our fear.”

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But since Russia used a hypersonic ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead in an attack on Dnipro, European leaders have raised the alarm.

“The last few dozen hours have shown that the threat is serious and real when it comes to global conflict,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Friday.

According to Dutch media reports, NATO’s secretary-general Mark Rutte is in Florida to urgently meet President-elect Donald Trump, potentially to discuss the recent escalation.

NATO and Ukraine will hold an extraordinary meeting in Brussels next Tuesday to discuss the situation and the possible allied reaction, according to Euronews sources.

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Rental home investors poised to benefit as mortgage rates, high home prices sideline buyers in 2025

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Rental home investors poised to benefit as mortgage rates, high home prices sideline buyers in 2025

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Rental homes will remain an attractive option next year to would-be homebuyers sidelined by high mortgage rates and rising home prices, analysts say.

American Homes 4 Rent and Invitation Homes are two big real estate investment trusts poised to benefit from the trend, say analysts at Mizuho Securities USA and Raymond James & Associates.

Their outlooks boil down to a simple thesis: Many Americans will continue to have a difficult time finding a single-family home that they can afford to buy, which will make renting a house an attractive alternative.

It starts with mortgage rates. While the average rate on a 30-year mortgage fell to a two-year low of 6.08% in late September, it’s been mostly rising since then, echoing moves in the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing home loans.

The yield, which has hovered around 4.4% this week, surged after the presidential election, reflecting expectations among investors that President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies may widen the federal deficit and crank up inflation.

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Analysts at Raymond James and Associates say they see mortgage rates remaining “higher for longer,” given the outcome of the election. Last week, they reiterated their “Outperform” ratings on American Homes 4 Rent and Invitation Homes, noting “we are increasingly confident in the longer-term outlook for single-family rental fundamentals and the industry’s growth prospects.”

They also believe the two companies will continue to benefit from “outsized demographic demand for suburban homes,” and the monthly payment gap between renting and owning a home, which they estimate can be as much as 30% less to rent.

Analysts at Mizuho also expect that homeownership affordability hurdles will maintain “a supportive backdrop” and stoke demand for rental houses, helping American Homes 4 Rent and Invitation Homes to maintain their tenant retention rates.

The companies are averaging higher new and renewal tenant lease rates when compared to several of the largest U.S. apartment owners, including AvalonBay, Equity Residential and Camden Property Trust, according to Mizuho. It has an “Outperform” rating on American Homes 4 Rent and a “Neutral” rating on Invitation Homes.

Shares in Invitation Homes are down 1.2% so far this year, while American Homes 4 Rent is up 4.4%. That’s well below the S&P 500’s 24% gain in the same period.

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While individual homeowners and mom-and-pop investors still account for the vast majority of single-family rental homes, homebuilders have stepped up construction of new houses planned for rental communities.

In the third quarter, builders broke ground on about 24,000 single-family homes slated to become rentals. That’s up from 17,000 a year earlier. In the second quarter, single-family rental starts climbed to 25,000, the highest quarterly total going back to at least 1990, according to an analysis of U.S. Census data by the National Association of Home Builders.

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