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Where things stand in the 2024 election

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Where things stand in the 2024 election


A view of the White House as the sun sets the day after the presidential election.

Ting Shen/AFP


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Ting Shen/AFP

A look at where things stand with the election results as of 7:20 p.m. ET on Wednesday:

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It was determined overnight that Donald Trump will again take the White House, according to calls by the Associated Press in key states, and he is also increasingly likely to do so with full control of the political levers in Washington.

Republicans have flipped enough seats to take control of the U.S. Senate. They will have at least 52 seats in the next Senate and are leading in two others at this hour.

In the House, in the early morning hours overnight, Democrats seemed to have a chance of taking the majority, but that has shifted. Republicans are currently leading in enough seats to retain control of the lower chamber, but there are many close races that have not yet been called and the AP stresses that control of the House will take days, if not longer, to correctly determine.

The presidency

Trump: 296 electoral votes
Harris: 226

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What’s left: Nevada and Arizona.

Trump leads in both Nevada and Arizona by 5 points. Winning them would get Trump to a final electoral vote tally of 313.

The Senate

Republicans: 52 seats
Democrats: 44 (includes Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats)

Republicans have picked up the Senate, flipping West Virginia, Ohio and Montana so far.

What’s left: Arizona, Maine, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

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Republicans lead in Nevada and Pennsylvania. Winning both would bring their total in the next Congress to 54 senators.

  • Nevada, though, is a margin of almost 4,000 votes out of more than 1.2 million, so that is unlikely to be called any time soon with 85% of the vote in. 
  • Pennsylvania is within 30,000 with 95% of the vote in.
  • Maine is likely to go for Angus King, the incumbent independent who caucuses with the Democrats. He is ahead by 18 points with 92% of the vote in.

Latest calls: Democrats got good news this afternoon when incumbents Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan both won their races, according to the AP.

What about ticket-splitters? Democratic Senate candidates outperformed Harris at the top of the ticket in each of the Senate races that Republicans were looking to flip. The lone exception was Maryland, where Harris won by 23 points, but Democrat Angela Alsobrooks defeated popular former Gov. Larry Hogan by 7.

But they didn’t do so by enough in Montana, West Virginia, Ohio and possibly Nevada and Pennsylvania. In the hotly contested Blue Wall states, the Democratic candidates were only able to outrun Harris by less than 2 points:

  • +13 in Montana
  • +11 in West Virginia
  • +7 in Ohio
  • +7 in Arizona
  • +4.8 in Nevada
  • +1.8 in Wisconsin
  • +1.1 in Michigan
  • +0.7 in Pennsylvania

The House (218 needed for majority)

Republicans: 204 (Republicans need 14 more)
Democrats: 187 (Democrats need 31 more)
Not yet called: 44

The AP notes that the House is not expected to be called this week. Here’s why:

Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to win the majority. As it stands now:

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  • Democrats have flipped 3 seats and are leading in 2 others of the 15 remaining Republican-held competitive seats.
  • Republicans have flipped 1 and are leading in 3 of the 16 remaining Democratic-held competitive seats.

If that all holds, Democrats would be +5, Republicans +4 for just a Democratic net pick up of +1. That would give Republicans a 3-seat majority.

But this will change. There is a lot of vote left to count, mostly in the West and particularly in California, where there remain eight competitive seats to be called.

What we know from the early exit polls so far

Exit polls will change as the night goes on because they are matched toward actual results at the end of the night. But the early exit polls, as reported by NBC and CNN so far, tell us a few things:

The most important issues for voters in the election mirror what has been reported in pre-election polls like the NPR/PBS News/Marist poll. For more than a third of voters, democracy was the top issue, followed by the economy (about 3 in 10 voters), abortion rights (1 in 7) and immigration (1 in 10). Foreign policy was in low single digits — less than 10% — as a top issue.

A majority of Harris voters said democracy was their top issue. Second for them was abortion rights.

For Trump voters, the economy was most important, followed by immigration (1 in 5) and democracy (1 in 10). Nothing else was in double-digits.

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Harris voters said it was most important to have a leader with good judgment and someone who cares about people. Trump voters prefer someone who has the ability to lead or can bring about needed change. Good judgment and someone who cares were in single digits for Trump voters.

Americans overall are in a bad mood. Three-quarters said they’re either dissatisfied or angry about the direction of the country. That’s not surprising, because in every month for the past 15 years, Americans have said the country is off on the wrong track.

Almost 6 in 10 said they disapprove of the job President Biden is doing. And that may be because of the economy. Two-thirds said the economy is either not so good or poor and more than 8 in 10 said inflation has caused them either moderate hardship (53%) or severe hardship (21%). Almost half of voters said their family’s financial situation is worse than four years ago.

But there was also considerable optimism from voters as 6 in 10 said America’s best days are ahead of it; just a third said they’re in the past.

Note: Exit polls are conducted by Edison Research and paid for by TV networks like CNN, NBC and others. NPR does not pay for either Edison’s exit polls or the Associated Press’ VoteCast, which are not exit polls but very large entrance polls, or pre-election polls taken up to when polls close. Fox News’ post-election analysis about the shape of the electorate and most important issues and the like will be based on AP’s VoteCast.

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Washington

What’s next after Trump win? Emboldened, he’ll take charge in a Washington he changed

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What’s next after Trump win? Emboldened, he’ll take charge in a Washington he changed


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Now what?

With a stronger-than-ever electoral showing, Donald Trump is poised to take charge in a Washington he has changed.

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He leads a united Republican Party, the so-called Never Trumpers in the GOP establishment vanquished. He faces disheartened Democrats who have only begun the recriminations over what went wrong. With bolstered control of the Senate and perhaps also the House, the GOP is positioned to push the aggressive agenda he outlined in a bruising campaign.

One more thing: Trump himself knows more about how things work and is less willing to heed those who urge caution than he was when he unexpectedly won his first term in the White House eight years ago.

Donald John Trump, 78, has triumphed over Democrat Kamala Harris in a historic political comeback − prevailing despite two impeachments, two assassination attempts, a problematic debate, a criminal conviction and memories of the storming of the Capitol by his supporters four years ago. Not since Grover Cleveland in 1892 has a president come back from defeat to win a second term.

“We’ve achieved the most incredible political thing,” he told exultant supporters gathered for election night in West Palm Beach, Florida. He promised to “fix everything.”

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This time, he not only carried the Electoral College but also the popular vote, the first Republican to do so in two decades. His victory was so decisive that there was no need to wait for days of counting ballots as in 2020.

Instead, most Americans woke up Wednesday morning to news that Trump had the White House in hand, and to speculation about what exactly he would do when he moves back in Jan. 20.

What will he do?

His supporters brag and his opponents fear that Trump will claim a mandate to do precisely what he said he would do.

That would include across-the-board tariffs on imported goods. Mass deportations of undocumented migrants. A rollback of federal regulations on energy and the environment. An extension of the massive tax cuts enacted in his first term. An “America First” foreign policy that could pressure Ukraine to make territorial concessions to end its defensive war with Russia.

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He also vowed to seek “retribution” against his political foes and to pardon those convicted for their part in the Jan. 6 insurrection. He has made it clear he would end the federal prosecutions of himself − indictments charging that he tried to overturn the 2020 election and mishandled some of the nation’s most sensitive secrets.

The voices now likely to have his ear include controversial vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr., whom he praised at his victory celebration, and entrepreneur Elon Musk, the world’s richest man. “A star is born: Elon,” Trump declared to cheers.

The voices who will have more trouble getting his attention are likely to include the shrinking ranks of Republican moderates in Congress. With a Republican majority of at least 52 in the Senate, Trump could win confirmations and pass policy even if centrist senators Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine bolt.

Can disheartened Democrats rally?

For Democrats, the coalition that elected Barack Obama and Joe Biden has been shattered.

“We are going to have to sit down as a Democratic Party and look hard” at why voters didn’t turn out for Harris and down-ballot Democrats, said Delaware Sen. Chris Coons, an ally of Biden and co-chair of Harris’ campaign. On CNN, he dodged a question about whether he and other Democrats had regrets about Biden’s initial decision to seek a second term.

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“Look, I think it’s hard to look back and talk to what could-of or might-of or should-have been,” he said − words that were not a denial.

Trump already had reshaped the Republican Party, making it more populist, more male and more working-class.

With Tuesday’s election, he also reshaped the Democratic Party. He eroded its core support among Latino and Black voters, especially men, and dismantled the “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that had once been a partisan bulwark.

In Edison Research exit polls, Trump carried a 54% majority of Hispanic men, a record for a Republican, and 37% of Hispanic women. Among Black voters, he won just 7% of Black women but 20% of Black men.

He defeated Vice President Harris among white voters 55%-43%.

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The size and sweep of Trump’s victory defied any easy or singular explanation, especially against an opponent who was credited with record fundraising and a generally sure-footed campaign.

Some critics said Harris should have picked Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro instead of Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, a choice that might have put the Keystone State in her corner. Others said she needed to do more to explain and distance herself from progressive positions she supported during her short-lived presidential bid in 2019. She faced hecklers, especially on college campuses, for the devastation among civilians in Gaza from Israeli attacks.

Most of all, though, voters said their top concern was the economy, expressing disapproval of the Biden administration’s record on inflation and saying they had suffered its effect on their own families.

On the other hand …

There’s another election in two years.

In victory and defeat, the late Democratic national chair Robert Strauss would caution that in politics, things are never as good as they seem or as bad as they seem − that the seeds of disaster or renewal are planted in the best and worst of times. Now, with their commanding position of power, Trump and his GOP troops are likely to be held accountable for good news and bad.

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Midterm elections almost always deliver rebukes to the party in power as voters express unhappiness with promises not kept. In the past five midterm elections, for instance, the president’s party has lost an average of 31 House seats.

Which would, of course, switch power there again.



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Washington state AG Bob Ferguson wins governor’s race

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Washington state AG Bob Ferguson wins governor’s race


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KITSAP, Wash. — Washington State Attorney General Bob Ferguson will become the state’s next governor after defeating former congressman Dave Reichert, according to a race call by The Associated Press.

In Tuesday night’s report, Ferguson — a Democrat — earned just more than 56% of the statewide vote, or 1.43 million votes to Republican challenger Reichert’s 1.08 million. Ferguson will be Washington state’s first new governor in more than a decade, replacing Gov. Jay Inslee who has served since 2013.

Ferguson was first elected as the state’s attorney general in 2012, and won reelection in 2016 and 2020. His gubernatorial campaign centered on issues such as the environment, combating the opioid epidemic, civil rights, and expanding access to affordable health care, among other issues.

He made national headlines in 2017 after he challenged the Trump administration’s travel ban on majority-Muslim countries.

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“I am honored that Washingtonians have chosen me to fight for them,” Ferguson said in a statement on social media Tuesday night.

“We won by building a massive grassroots coalition, including more than 110,000 individual contributions,” Ferguson added. “We relentlessly traveled across the state to build support and listen to the hopes and concerns of Washingtonians. Those conversations will guide me as your Governor.”

Ferguson ran against Reichert, a former seven-term congressman, Air Force Reserve veteran and longtime police officer. In the state’s crowded nonpartisan primary earlier this year, Ferguson received 44.9% of the vote and Reichert placed second with 27.5%. 

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Contributing: Rachel Barber, USA TODAY



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Washington Nationals Will Have To Open Up Checkbook To Land This Free Agent

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Washington Nationals Will Have To Open Up Checkbook To Land This Free Agent


The Washington Nationals are a team that many people are expecting to be aggressive in free agency this offseason.

Despite winning only 71 games during the 2024 season, this is a team that is on the rise. A talented young core is being built and the time to spend some money and upgrade around them is now.

There are a few holes that could use filling this winter, with the corner infield being arguably the most pressing. It will be interesting to see how they look to address those needs, as several free agents and trade targets could emerge.

If they look to sign someone, Alex Bregman of the Houston Astros is the no-brainer top option. With Matt Chapman signing an extension with the San Francisco Giants during the season and Eugenio Suarez’s option being picked up, it is slim pickings in free agency.

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That is partly why the contract projections for the two-time World Series champion are so high. As shared by Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, the talented third baseman is expected to sign a six-year, $187 million deal.

That $31.2 million AAV would place him No. 5 amongst players at his position. Right ahead of Chapman but behind Anthony Rendon, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado and Rafael Devers.

“Bregman seems to be a primary target of the Astros and Washington Nationals (a very widely rumored landing spot for him) — two teams that tend to be aggressive and not worry about models when chasing their targets. Will Bregman get more with a narrower market than shortstop Willy Adames will while having three or four times as many teams engaged? Bregman has posted three straight 4-to-5 WAR seasons with a wide base of skills, though he hasn’t topped 26 homers since 2019 and plays a corner position,” McDaniel wrote.

The Astros aren’t going to let him go without a fight, as his departure would create a massive void for the team to fill. That could mean having to pay him a little extra to convince him to leave Houston behind.

Despite the drop in power, even what was considered a somewhat underwhelming season for Bregman this past year would have placed him in the argument as being the most productive Nationals hitter.

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His 30 doubles, 26 home runs and 75 RBI would have all been first on the team. His slash line of .260/.315/.453 would have been near the top among qualified hitters as well.

There is a lot to like about Bregman’s fit in Washington. He would bring championship experience to a team lacking in that area, as free agent starting pitcher Patrick Corbin was the last player remaining from their 2019 World Series team.

That kind of clubhouse leadership is important to have. Not to mention, he addresses arguably the biggest need the team has coming into the offseason.



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