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How The Washington Post reports election race calls

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How The Washington Post reports election race calls


Within the 2022 midterm elections, voting ends when the polls shut on Election Day. However that doesn’t imply we are going to robotically know the winners of all 35 U.S. Senate seats up for grabs, nor the result of all 36 governors’ contests, 435 U.S. Home seats and a slew of state legislative races additionally at stake.

The method of calling races — projecting a winner as votes proceed to be counted — is hard.

Are you able to vote? This toolkit will assist put together you for the midterms

The Washington Submit doesn’t name races by itself. It depends closely on two nonpartisan organizations with lengthy observe data of inspecting uncooked vote totals and calling elections: the Related Press and Edison Analysis, the latter of which supplies vote depend information for a gaggle of TV information networks. Though The Submit additionally appears to its unbiased election mannequin to offer details about how the vote is trending as outcomes are being tallied, it doesn’t depend on the mannequin to make race calls. It’s essential to recollect the official winner of any electoral contest will not be decided till the state authorities certifies the vote — in lots of instances weeks after the election itself.

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Why is it so troublesome for winners to be formally declared on election night time? The reply is the USA doesn’t maintain a single election for Congress, statehouses and state legislatures — as a substitute, it extra precisely conducts hundreds of contests in scores of states and counties by native officers in disparate methods. This extremely decentralized system is among the causes consultants say election fraud is so uncommon — but it surely additionally makes it tougher to reliably predict the outcomes shortly after the polls shut.

This yr, as an illustration, as a result of there are such a lot of aggressive races for Home and Senate, we could not know which get together controls both chamber of Congress on election night time. That reply may take a while.

The Submit is looking for to be as clear as attainable about what goes on behind the scenes in our newsroom on election night time. Our high precedence is reporting correct info to our readers, and that may imply we publish race calls extra slowly to present our journalists extra time to think about whether or not we’ve sufficient information. For a handful of essentially the most aggressive races (extra on which of them beneath), we are going to spend extra time analyzing the info from AP and Edison in deciding once we’re able to publish them.

Beneath, we break down how we determine when a race name is able to be reported.

The place does The Submit get details about how People are voting?

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The Submit depends on two organizations for vote information: the AP and Edison Analysis. Our outcomes pages depend upon always up to date tallies from the AP, which has a number of methods of gathering info: reporters who go to and/or name counties or clerks’ places of work, sustaining good communication traces with them, and who test county web sites or different programmatic feeds. Edison runs its personal vote counting system, offering information to the Nationwide Election Pool (NEP) consortium of ABC, CBS, CNN and CBS in addition to different subscribers.

The AP and Edison additionally conduct massive surveys of early and Election Day voters measuring assist for candidates throughout a variety of demographic teams in addition to opinions on high election points. AP’s survey is known as AP VoteCast, and Edison conducts the exit ballot for the NEP. Such polls are often just one piece of knowledge informing race calls, and aggressive contests rely totally on evaluation of vote tallies.

The AP’s race-calling staff contains about 60 reporters, editors and analysts in a common election, in response to David Scott, the AP’s vice chairman and head of stories technique and operations.

Its commonplace for race calls is “certainty,” Scott stated, that means the AP will solely name races when it doesn’t see any risk the main candidate can lose. The AP seeks to make sure it is aware of the placement of all excellent votes in a state or county to verify there isn’t anyplace a trailing candidate would possibly outperform or a development will be reversed.

Typically, the AP calls a race proper after the polls have closed. That often occurs in much less aggressive races, in situations when the development traces match nicely with earlier elections and mirror the AP VoteCast ballot. At different instances, a name is available in shortly after polls shut, reminiscent of when the competition’s anticipated winner is main by an awesome margin in vote tallies or VoteCast polling. Slower race calls are anticipated in additional aggressive races.

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Edison Analysis’s resolution desk depends on three groups of 4 to six consultants every who analyze Home contests, turnout ranges and take into account after which make race calls, stated co-founder and govt vice chairman Joe Lenski. The group feeds its vote depend and exit ballot information into a number of pc fashions. As soon as a number one candidate has a 99.5 % likelihood of successful, Edison’s resolution desk will take into account making a name.

“Even when the computations point out we’re at that degree,” Lenski stated, Edison’s staff will likely be “scrubbing information” to make sure the remaining vote couldn’t change the result.

How do absentee or mail-in ballots have an effect on a race name?

Totally different states have various guidelines for when native officers can start processing absentee or mail-in ballots — opening and verifying the identities of voters — which sharply elevated in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. There are much more guidelines about when such ballots can start being tabulated.

Because of this in states like Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, which permit early processing of mail-in ballots, the primary launch of vote totals will most likely be from mail-in ballots arriving earlier than Election Day and early in-person votes. The following ballots to be counted are sometimes Election Day votes, adopted by absentee ballots that arrived on (or in some states just a few days after) Election Day.

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Different states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan don’t enable absentee ballots to be processed till Election Day. So the primary ballots that will likely be counted and reported in these states most likely will likely be Election Day votes, with the absentee votes being reported later.

The Submit thinks fastidiously in regards to the mixture of Election Day to absentee ballots utilized by the AP and Edison when reporting a race name. If The Submit determines that not sufficient Election Day ballots have been included in a projection, we would delay reporting a name.

How will The Submit report calls in essentially the most aggressive races?

For the massive majority of noncompetitive Home, Senate, gubernatorial and statewide contests within the common election, The Submit will depend on AP race calls. The Submit’s outcomes’ pages and its reside outcomes modules for these contests will include AP info and feeds.

We’re, nonetheless, utilizing a extra rigorous course of for essentially the most aggressive races: roughly 12 Senate contests, 60 Home races, six gubernatorial contests, three secretary of state races and two elections in Maryland and the District of Columbia, for comptroller and Council-at-Giant, respectively. We’re counting on the rankings from the Cook dinner Political Report and pre-election polls to categorize the competitiveness of particular person contests.

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For the 12 best Senate races, The Submit will await a name from both the AP or Edison. As soon as one group makes a name, we are going to evaluate info from each teams in regards to the race, in addition to seek the advice of our personal mannequin information and outcomes maps to see if we’re able to report the decision. We’re dedicating extra time to analyzing aggressive Senate races as a result of there are fewer of them, and due to every race’s significance in deciding management of the chamber.

For essentially the most aggressive Home races, The Submit has determined to attend for each the AP and Edison to name these contests earlier than reporting a winner. We are going to apply that very same commonplace — a name from each desks — for the gubernatorial and secretary of state races on which we’re preserving a detailed eye.

How will The Submit report management of the Home and Senate?

The Submit will report management of the Senate when Democrats have gained 50 seats (Vice President Harris can be the tiebreaking 51st vote), or Republicans have captured 51 seats, accounting for the 65 seats that aren’t up for election this yr. The Submit will report management of the Home when both get together has gained 218 seats.

As a result of we’re making use of a stricter commonplace to a handful of races, The Submit could be slower in reporting which get together controls Congress than both the AP or Edison. That’s as a result of we’re ready for each information organizations to venture a winner in essentially the most aggressive Home races, and taking further time to evaluate calls in Senate contests.

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How will The Submit use its election mannequin?

Our election mannequin, which you’ll see throughout our web site on Election Day, estimates the variety of excellent votes in any given race and which candidate or get together is most definitely to learn from them. It goals to offer a fuller image of the outcomes after all of the votes are counted as a substitute of a typically deceptive picture of outcomes earlier within the night time.

If the whole lot goes nicely on election night time, you’ll additionally see insights based mostly on our mannequin included in our reside protection and on The Submit’s reside present. These insights are based mostly on evaluating what the mannequin tells us about how People are more likely to vote with demographic info from the U.S. Census and data states preserve about their voters.

We do seek the advice of our mannequin when contemplating reporting a race name, although solely to verify that AP or Edison’s projections line up with what our mannequin exhibits. If our mannequin estimates a wholly totally different consequence in a given race, we would maintain off on reporting the decision and dig into the discrepancy.



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Legislative Staff in Washington State Approve Contract in First Collective Bargaining

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Legislative Staff in Washington State Approve Contract in First Collective Bargaining


It took Democratic staff in Washington’s Legislature a little longer but they have joined their Republican colleagues in approving two-year contracts, concluding the first-ever round of collective bargaining for legislative employees.

Legislative assistants, policy analysts and communications staff in the House Democratic Caucus and legislative assistants in the Senate Democratic Caucus unanimously ratified agreements in separate votes in late December. The decisions came nearly three months after workers overwhelmingly rejected proposed contracts with their employers, which are the chief clerk of the House and secretary of the Senate.

“We’re pretty excited. It’s not everything we wanted. But it’s a reasonable first contract,” Josie Ellison, a communications specialist and member of the House Democratic Caucus bargaining team, said Thursday night. “For now, everybody seems pretty enthusiastic about it.”


The Washington Public Employees Association represented both Democratic staff bargaining units.

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“This historic agreement marks a new chapter for our members, providing the protections and support they deserve,” Amanda Hacker, association president said in a statement.

Legislative assistants in the House and Senate Republican caucuses approved their respective two-year agreements in September.

Each contract contains pay hikes of 3 percent on July 1, 2025 and 2 percent a year later, the same amount offered to other state employee unions. State lawmakers and the next governor, Bob Ferguson, will now decide whether to fund them in the next two-year budget.

Under the collective bargaining law, state employee unions — including legislative staff units — needed to submit a ratified contract by Oct. 1 to be considered for funding. Because Democratic staff did not meet the deadline, they will need to make a separate case to Ferguson and lawmakers to fund their deals.

Jeremy Knapp, an executive legislative assistant with the Senate Democratic Caucus and member of the bargaining team, said Thursday that administration of the Senate and House are supportive.

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“It’s in the Legislature’s hands now,” he said.

A 2022 law cleared the way for partisan legislative staff to unionize and negotiate terms and conditions for the workplace.

Employees of the Democratic and Republican caucuses in each chamber had to be in separate units unless a majority of each caucus voted to be in the same unit. All four units negotiated collectively on economic issues, like wages and benefits, and separately on workplace-related issues.

“The collective bargaining agreements represent several months of hard work by the negotiating teams and we are pleased that we have been able to reach an agreement with both the Legislative Professionals Association and the [Washington Public Employees Association],” Chief Clerk of the House Bernard Dean wrote in an email.

The contracts with Democratic staff call for a third-party arbiter in the grievance process. That means if a dispute arises on a contract provision, the two sides will have access to arbitration through the American Arbitration Association, to resolve it. This had been a sticking point as employers resisted involvement of an outside party, employees said.

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“It gave us what we think is a very fair grievance process,” Knapp said.

Secretary of the Senate Sarah Bannister called the agreement “a significant milestone” that “brings a sense of relief and allows us to focus fully on the work ahead.”

She said the decision to add a panel with an arbitrator “was made collaboratively, reflecting a commitment from everyone to ensure fairness, transparency, and efficiency in resolving disputes.”

The contracts also outline new ways to resolve conflicts between elected officials and legislative staff. And there are provisions to create a “transition” pool for union members facing the loss of a job because the lawmaker they work for retires, loses re-election or leaves office for another reason.

Knapp said the Senate contract lays out how a person facing the loss of work could get a job as a session aide to avoid unemployment. There’s also language ensuring the employer provides workers, who are at-will employees, with two weeks notice before being let go or two weeks pay if fired.

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This story was first published in the Washington State Standard. Read the original here.





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Washington Street closure extended in Quincy

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Washington Street closure extended in Quincy


QUINCY (WGEM) – The road closure for Washington Street between 7th and 8th streets has been extended for fire hydrant repair.

Officials stated that the closure has been extended to Jan. 15.

Officials also warn motorists to use alternative routes and drive with caution.

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A brief history of presidential inaugural speeches, from George Washington to today

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A brief history of presidential inaugural speeches, from George Washington to today


The only constitutionally mandated event on Inauguration Day is for the president-elect to take the oath of office. But on the first Inauguration Day, in 1789, George Washington did something else.

He gave a speech.

Every president since has followed his example and delivered an inaugural address as part of the national celebration.

This button from George Washington’s first inauguration visually unified the states of the Union.
National Museum of American History

These addresses are more than just a series of individual speeches. Rhetoric scholars Karlyn Kohrs Campbell and Kathleen Hall Jamieson argue that each inaugural address is not simply marking one stage in the ritual of political transition. Each is also part of a genre that has characteristics which, at some level, are expected and understood by speakers and audiences. There have been 59 inaugural addresses, starting with Washington, and while they may have differed in style and even specific subjects, virtually all feature these characteristics, which range from calls to unify the country to setting forth political principles.

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The political history collections at the National Museum of American History, where I am a curator specializing in the history of presidential campaigns and campaign rhetoric, include several objects that illustrate these characteristics.

Exploring the genre of inaugural addresses through quotations and objects from the past can help listeners better understand the opening speech of a new administration, the first act in a job that began with the taking of the oath.

'We are all Republicans....all Federalists' reads a quote on an ivory pitcher with Thomas Jefferson's image on it.
This commemorative pitcher features a quote: ‘We are all Republicans….all Federalists,’ from Thomas Jefferson’s first inaugural address.
National Museum of American History

(Re)Unification of the audience

Inaugurations serve as the transition point between the competition of a campaign and the needs of an administration beginning to govern. For the audience to properly fulfill their role as witnesses to this investiture of power, they must be unified and reconstituted as “we the people.”

In the words of political scientist Lee Sigelman, these speeches are “literally brimming with verbal tokens of unity.”

There are references to our founders, our nation and the future we face. In 1957, Dwight Eisenhower spoke of the purposes “to which we, as a people, are pledged,” and Benjamin Harrison called his 1889 inaugural moment a “mutual covenant” between himself and the people. George W. Bush in 2001 united his listeners, saying, “Americans are generous and strong and decent, not because we believe in ourselves but because we hold beliefs beyond ourselves.”

Thomas Jefferson’s first inaugural in 1801 may have been the most explicit: “We have called by different names brethren of the same principle. We are all Republicans, we are all Federalists.”

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Reaffirmation of national values

New presidents must also establish their qualifications for the office by demonstrating they understand and will preserve the shared values that are key to what Bill Clinton in 1993 called “the very idea of America.”

A button with images of Abraham Lincoln and Barack Obama on it, with 'A Birth of New Freedom' printed above those images.
A button commemorating the 2009 inauguration of Barack Obama.
National Museum of American History

These traditional values are expressed in words such as freedom, liberty, democracy and courage. In 1981, Ronald Reagan reminded the audience, “Freedom and the dignity of the individual have been more available and assured here than in any other place on Earth. Jimmy Carter in 1977 summarized these values into “our belief in an undiminished, ever-expanding American dream.”

Setting forth political principles

A large ivory piece of silk with black printing on it.
A silk copy of William Henry Harrison’s 1841 inaugural address, the longest in history at more than 8,400 words.
National Museum of American History

Unlike many other presidential addresses, most notably the State of the Union, the inaugural does not advocate specific legislation but rather articulates more general philosophies that will guide a new administration. When policies are offered, they are less a call for action than a demonstration of a president’s commitment to the democratic system.

In 1845, James Polk promoted his “plain and frugal” economic plans because he said a national debt “is incompatible with the ends for which our republican Government was instituted.” Herbert Hoover said that the policies he listed in his 1929 address would be tested against the “ideals and aspirations of America.”

Even William Howard Taft, whose 1909 inaugural was among the most policy specific, framed his ideas with respect to the “proper” role of the federal government “in what it can and ought to accomplish for its people.”

Enacting the presidential role

A miniature ladder with a ribbon that features the likenesses of President William McKinley and his new vice president, Theodore Roosevelt.
This novelty item celebrating William McKinley’s second inauguration in 1901 highlighted the political principles he had promoted in his first inaugural address and term.
National Museum of American History

Candidates give speeches that are, for obvious reasons, partisan and self-promoting. But when the campaign ends and governing begins, presidents must demonstrate an understanding of their role within the broader system.

In his first inaugural in 1933, Franklin Roosevelt moved out of campaign mode and acknowledged the constraints on his “leadership of frankness and vigor.” He pledged to rely on his “constitutional duty” to work with Congress.

Rhetoric scholars Campbell and Jamieson add that these speeches must also enact the “public, symbolic role of president of all the people” by revealing traits such as humility and reliance on a higher power. A typical example is found in the conclusion of Warren Harding’s 1921 address: “I accept my part with single-mindedness of purpose and humility of spirit, and implore the favor and guidance of God in His Heaven. With these I am unafraid, and confidently face the future.”

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A booklet with images of an eagle, a three-masted schooner and two men, with 'OFFICIAL INAUGURAL PROGRAM' printed on the tope.
The official program for Franklin Roosevelt’s 1933 inauguration.
National Museum of American History

Fulfilling ceremonial expectations

Because of the celebration that surrounds them, inaugural addresses are expected to reflect stylized, ceremonial speaking. Such speeches strive to reach beyond the immediate situation to evoke timeless themes using memorable phrases.

In 1961, John Kennedy challenged Americans across the decades to “Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country.” The phrases “mystic chords of memory” and “better angels of our nature,” among the most memorable words in presidential rhetoric, have been applied to countless situations since Abraham Lincoln first uttered them in 1861.

Not all inaugural addresses achieve greatness. Some have been quite forgettable. But each of them has tried to fulfill these expectations, helping to sustain what Franklin Roosevelt in his second inaugural called “our covenant with ourselves.”



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