🚨: The International Court of Justice will soon issue a ruling on South Africa’s request for provisional measures in its genocide case against Israel, our colleagues Claire Parker and Emily Rauhala report: “Friday’s decision will not be a verdict on the question of genocide — that could take years. Rather, the court could issue what are called “provisional measures” ordering, say, a cease-fire, or for Israel to allow more aid into Gaza — or not. Whatever the outcome Friday, the ICJ case has added to international pressure on Israel to scale back or end its war against Hamas, which health officials in Gaza say has killed more than 26,000 people — most of them women and children.”

Schatz on the Israel-Hamas war and his two-state resolution

Eight questions for … Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii): Schatz plans to offer an amendment to an impending national security supplemental that would reiterate the U.S. position favoring a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians. Forty-nine Democrats have signed on to the measure. Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and John Fetterman (D-Pa.) and all Senate Republicans have not.

We spoke with Schatz about the measure’s purpose and if Democrats’ symbolic messages to Israel are making a difference. This interview has been edited and condensed for length and clarity.

The Early: Isn’t a two-state solution already U.S. policy?

Schatz: It reiterates that that’s United States policy, and five or 10 years ago, this wouldn’t have been necessary. But two things have changed. The first obviously is October 7, and all the death and destruction on both sides that is tearing the country asunder and causing people to lose hope. And the second is the prime minister’s recent statements, I think, demand a response.

Editor’s note: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu again rejected the prospect of a Palestinian state on Saturday, saying, “I will not compromise on full Israeli security control over all the territory west of the Jordan [River].”

The Early: Netanyahu’s comments over the weekend aren’t much different than what he has said for a long time. 

Schatz: No, but the timing and the context I think were unusually provocative. He didn’t have to say what he said when he said it. People are hanging on all of our every words as it relates to this conflict. I think everybody has to remain open minded at the tactical level, about how to get there, but absolutely determined that the only way this ends well is for two peoples to be able to live side by side with peace and security.

The Early: It seems, though, that the Israeli people actually don’t want to talk about a two-state solution right now either.

Schatz: Look, the country was traumatized. If I were an Israeli citizen, I can imagine that the only thing I’d be thinking about is making sure Hamas was not in a position to ever do this again, and getting those hostages home. And so the idea that an organized, murderous attack on more than 1,000 citizens could precipitate a diplomatic solution is really hard to swallow. So I understand that in terms of the sequence of events that it’s not time to talk about that. 

But the prime minister put this question on the table and I think it’s important for everybody to remember that the prime minister is an important person in this conversation, but he is not the final arbiter of what may or may not happen. This is going to be a multilateral process. And American objectives matter here.

The Early: This weekend, there’s going to be a conference in Israel devoted to building settlements in the West Bank. Can your resolution or the U.S. in general have any sort of impact on that action?

Schatz: I can’t predict how it will impact the conference this weekend. But I will say that the illegal settlements and settler violence sets the cause of Israel back and is both morally and strategically untenable. It simply has to stop. If you are an Israeli who wants peace and stability, you have to get these illegal settlements under control and allow Palestinians who are minding their own business to continue to mind their own business. There’s no strategic justification for it. There is no historical justification for it. This is just people taking land with either violence or the threat of violence.

The Early: Does President Biden need to do more to pressure Israel? 

Schatz: At the beginning, the sort of ‘hug Bibi’ strategy was the only one available to us. Because if had we tried to intervene and threaten or talk them out of it, it was a nation traumatized and they were not prepared to listen to anybody about how to protect their own citizens. 

But time has passed, and conditions on the ground for Palestinians are horrific, and international public opinion is going in the wrong direction as it relates to Israel and so I think it’s time to recalibrate. Israel is telling us that they’re going to change the nature of the offensive operations. But we haven’t seen that yet. And for me, the hug Bibi strategy only works if Bibi wants to be hugged.

The Early: There’s a growing sentiment among Democrats that is being expressed through resolutions like this one. But there seems to be no real widespread effort to change the $14 billion funding request on the table. Why?

Schatz: I don’t think we’re there yet. I’m not there. I think we ought to use our leverage as friends. I think we ought to communicate directly with our allies. But I’m not suggesting that we pull aid from Israel. And I think there are very few people in the Congress who take that position.

But there’s already been a sea change and a recognition that to be an ally and a friend of Israel is not to give them a blank check for whatever they want to do, because sometimes they take actions that are not in their own country’s best interests. It’s our job to talk our friends back into a strategy that will work for them.

The Early: Is that possible without conditioning or limiting money?

Schatz: I think so. But I think it takes two to tango. We recognize their sovereign rights to conduct foreign policy as they see fit, but we are not silent partners here that just provide the resources for whatever they may want to do. We do have a say here, and it is in no one’s interest to allow the continued suffering of Palestinians — and it is certainly in no one’s interest to foreclose the possibility, remote as it may be, of [a] more hopeful, more peaceful future. And that’s what the two-state solution is about. 

The Early: Isn’t the United States right now a silent partner if it sends $14 billion of aid to Israel?

Schatz: I don’t think it’s fair to say that [Secretary of State] Tony Blinken or the president or [national security adviser] Jake Sullivan or [Defense] Secretary [Lloyd] Austin haven’t expressed their views. They’ve been pretty aggressive publicly, and privately. I think it’s fair to say that that Israel is not always listening to our good advice. 

Trump knocks border talks again; pro-Ukraine conservatives hit back

Former president Donald Trump again urged Republicans to reject any border deal, writing on Truth Social last night that the legislation being finalized by a trio of bipartisan negotiators in the Senate “will be meaningless.” He wrote that the “ONLY HOPE” to secure the border is “to vote for TRUMP2024!”

This is the second time in just over a week Trump publicly slammed the border negotiations, continuing to undercut the talks even as he focuses his reelection campaign on the influx of migrants to the border. 

Trump’s influence over the border talks is growing now that he is the likely Republican presidential nominee, a sentiment Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) acknowledged earlier this week in a closed-door meeting. With Trump’s support, right-wing media had been trying to undercut a deal for the past couple of weeks. But now there are calls from some conservative corners to keep working toward a border deal and Ukraine aid.

• The Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote: “Giving up on a border security bill would be a self-inflicted GOP wound. President Biden would claim, with cause, that Republicans want border chaos as an election issue rather than solving the problem.” 
• Furthermore, “Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a close Trump ally and a negotiator of the deal, has argued in recent days that a border deal would not affect the presidential election — a sign that Senate Republicans are attempting to publicly convince the president not to kill the deal. Republicans have also argued that this border deal would empower Trump if he were elected to reduce migration,” our colleague Liz Goodwin writes with Leigh Ann. 

The next 72 hours will be crucial for the fate of a border deal and Ukraine aide. 

National security adviser Jake Sullivan will meet Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi today and on Saturday in Bangkok, according to a National Security Council spokeswoman. The meeting, first reported by the Financial Times, follow Biden’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in November in Woodside, Calif., during which the two leaders agreed to take steps to repair their countries’ relationship.

Biden stays close to Washington for many events

White House Bureau Chief Toluse Olorunnipa files this week’s notebook:

Biden has long talked about his desire to spend the second half of his first term traveling the country to tout his legislative accomplishments. He and his aides have often fallen back on a well-worn complaint about how the political battles and negative sentiment a president faces in Washington are not reflective of what’s happening in “the real world” outside the Beltway.

But often for Biden, getting “out of Washington” does not mean going very far at all.

On Tuesday, he held a joint campaign rally with Vice President Harris, First Lady Jill Biden and Second Gentlemen Doug Emhoff focused on abortion. The location: Manassas, Va., less than an hour’s drive from the White House.

The rally crowd featured several abortion rights activists and other supporters, including many familiar faces to Biden — including longtime D.C. political figures and organizers who made the trek out to Manassas for the event.

It’s only the most recent example of the president venturing just barely outside the Beltway as he balances his desire to travel with the demands — and massive footprint — of the presidency.

Biden has traveled to Maryland and Virginia dozens of times since taking office, far outpacing his travel to most other states. Biden’s trips have been notable for his use of nearby locales to promote his own policies.

In December, he traveled to Bethesda, Md., twice. Not counting his trips to Camp David and Joint Base Andrews, Biden traveled to Maryland at least 11 times in 2023. The state was tied with Pennsylvania for the president’s second-most traveled states (behind his home state of Delaware). Those trips included visits to Baltimore to tout infrastructure and Lanham, Md., to needle the GOP over debt.

Biden, who traveled to Virginia at least seven times in 2023, has done fundraisers, wreath-layings and troop visits in the state.

One benefit of the close-to-home approach: It often allows Biden to travel without having to power up Air Force One, and lets him get back to the Oval Office quickly for additional meetings. It can also make it easier to coordinate joint appearances, like Tuesday’s in Manassas, since top officials spend most of their time in Washington.

Campaign officials said the Virginia location was resonant because the state’s Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, had sought to prove last year that a 15-week abortion restriction was a commonsense position backed by a majority of voters. Youngkin’s party lost several seats in the November legislative agenda, and Democrats captured control of the House of Delegates.

Still, as the 2024 campaign heats up, political pressures may force Biden to venture further outside the Beltway. Many key swing states expected to be up for grabs in November are far beyond D.C.’s suburbs.

You can follow all of Tolu’s work here and follow him on Twitter here. Have you read his book about George Floyd? Order it here.

• Exclusive: China presses Iran to rein in Houthi attacks in Red Sea, sources say. By Parisa Hafezi and Andrew Hayley.
• Trump’s momentum has world leaders bracing for round two. By the Wall Street Journal’s Daniel Michaels.

ICYMI: Former U.S. Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn is running for Congress

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