Voters in Utah will head to the polls this week in primary races that will test former President Donald Trump’s influence in the state.

Trump’s election performance in Utah has been lackluster by typical Republican measures. In the 2016 presidential election, Trump received 45.5% of the vote in a race that included an independent conservative candidate. In 2020, Trump won 58% in Utah. That was an improvement but was still the worst showing in the state by a Republican presidential candidate in a two-way race since Barry Goldwater lost to Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

While Utah Republicans typically embrace the most conservative candidates, the voters sometimes don’t follow party leaders. Winning a Utah nominating convention only means the candidate will appear on the primary ballot — but it doesn’t mean they become the eventual nominee. Here’s what to know about the state’s marquee races and which Republican candidates have been endorsed by the former president.

Who will replace retiring Sen. Mitt Romney?

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT) has been the face of the party’s centrist wing. However, a major question is will Romney’s retirement from the Senate bring a new candidate into Congress in his image or will his vacancy result in a more conservative candidate like Utah’s other senator, Mike Lee (R-UT), a key Trump ally.

Four candidates are competing for the open seat. Rep. John Curtis (R-UT), who represents the 3rd Congressional District, is considered the favorite heading into the primary on Tuesday, according to recent polling averages. The Utah congressman is also receiving the most fundraising, pulling in just under $970,000 between April 8 and June 5, according to recent campaign finance disclosures. Curtis is the only candidate who has not endorsed Trump’s reelection bid directly, but he has pledged to support the party’s nominee. 

Curtis will face Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs, whom Trump endorsed shortly before the Utah GOP convention in April, which selected the mayor as its nominee to replace Romney. While the endorsement carried Staggs through convention with more than two-thirds of delegate votes, that support may not translate to success at the ballot box. Staggs has struggled to gain traction in the polls and to fundraise. Campaign finance disclosures showed Staggs raised $260,000 in the last quarter, significantly less than Curtis. 

At the end of an hourlong debate earlier this month, Staggs levied an accusation of insider trading against Curtis, which generated attention. Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson and businessman Jason Walton are also running in the primary. Wilson only raised $27,000 in the last quarter, while Walton raised $36,000. The winner of this race will face Democrat Caroline Gleich, a professional skier. 

Utah’s House races

Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT) is seeking a third term in the state’s 1st Congressional District and will face political newcomer Paul Miller. Miller, an electrician, won over half of the delegates at the GOP nominating convention in April. The winner of this race will face Democrat Bill Campbell in the November election.

There are interesting dynamics at play in the race for Utah’s 2nd Congressional District after Trump endorsed incumbent Rep. Celeste Maloy (R-UT) earlier this week, less than two months after Lee endorsed her opponent, Colby Jenkins. Maloy is running for her first real term after winning a primary for a special election to replace Rep. Chris Stewart (R-UT), her former boss.

“Congresswoman Celeste Maloy is a great advocate for the wonderful people of Utah’s 2nd Congressional District!” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social account. “Celeste is fighting to Secure the Border, Create Jobs, Restore American Energy Independence, Support our Military/Veterans, Defend Religious Liberty, and Protect our always under siege Second Amendment. Celeste Maloy has my Complete and Total Endorsement!”

Trump’s endorsement power will be put to the test now that he’s wading into the race after Lee, an outspoken Trump ally, already went all in for Jenkins, a businessman and a military veteran. Lee has toured the state with the former Green Beret and has helped him secure endorsements. 

The Utah senator has pointed to Maloy’s vote in favor of the 2024 government funding bill and her vote to renew Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act as the reason he endorsed her opponent. Jenkins beat Maloy 57% to 43% in the state GOP convention. However, Maloy still has a major fundraising advantage. The winner will face Democrat Nathaniel Woodward in November.

Trump has not made an endorsement in this race to replace Curtis, but there are five Republicans vying for the nomination to represent Utah’s 3rd Congressional District, which includes Park City and the winter resort cities of Provo and Moab. 

State Sen. Mike Kennedy faces state Auditor John Dougall, business owner Case Lawrence, Roosevelt Mayor J.R. Bird, and attorney Stewart Peay. 

Dougall has been the only candidate in this race willing to criticize the former president and even has a billboard that says, “MAINSTREAM NOT MAGA.” Peay, who has Romney’s endorsement, has attempted to sidestep questions about whether he supports the former president.

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Kennedy has raised the most money in the last quarter, raising under $90,000, with $208,000 cash on hand, according to campaign finance records. Peay raised the second most in the field with $82,000 and $108,000 on hand. Bird reported $27,000, with $148,000 in cash on hand, and Dougall raised $11,000 and has $35,000 in the bank. The winner will face Democrat Glenn J. Wright.

Rep. Burgess Owens (R-UT) is running unopposed in this district. Owens will face Democrat Katrina Fallick-Wang in November.