The Utah Jazz have just one game left on the calendar to decide their final record to close out the 2025-26 season, and with it, finally determine their official lottery odds headed into the offseason.

While the Jazz might be out of the postseason hunt or anything close to it, their matchup agains the LA Lakers holds some high stakes, strictly because of those upcoming lottery odds.

Utah will also need to keep an eye on the Sacramento Kings’ final game of the year against the Portland Trail Blazers, as their outing will also have implications for where the Jazz will stand when it comes to their final lottery standing.

With that in mind, here’s what to watch for in both the Jazz and Kings face off in game 82 of their respective seasons:

If Jazz Lose + Kings Win

The best-case scenario for the Jazz’s lottery odds would be a combination of their own loss to the Lakers, combined with a Kings win vs. the Blazers. That would then put the 22-win Jazz one game below Sacramento in the end-of-year league standings, and with it, the standalone 4th-best odds in next month’s lottery.

That not only gives the Jazz a 12.5% chance at the number-one pick in the lottery, but also guarantees that they’ll retain their top-eight protected pick currently with the OKC Thunder.

It’s safe to assume this is the ideal outcome in mind for those in the Utah front office, but will require a bit of outside help since the Jazz claimed a win against the Memphis Grizzlies to tie Sacramento’s record.

If Jazz Win + Kings Lose

This is what the Jazz don’t want to see. A combination of their own win along with a Kings loss means they drop to sole possession of the fifth-best lottery odds; thus dropping to a 10.5% chance of claiming the number-one pick, and helping OKC to a slim 0.6% chance of taking Utah’s pick.

The fifth-best odds aren’t all bad. You’re given a 44.3% chance that your selection either moves up or stays within that range, and if it remains within the top five, gives Utah a really strong opportunity at a talented player atop the board. But of course, fourth is still better.

Considering the Lakers have a real incentive to win against the Jazz for their own seeding purposes as Utah has quite the opposite, this feels like an unlikely outcome on the surface. Crazier things have happened in the NBA, though.

If Jazz and Kings Both Win/Lose

If the Jazz and Kings both fall to the same result on Sunday night, nothing changes from where the landscape stands now.

Each team will tie with the fourth-best odds in the lottery with either 22 or 23 wins, and will be forced to a tiebreaker in order to determine who gets the fourth and fifth spots in the drawing come lottery time.

That tiebreaker inevitably comes down to a literal coin flip, and therefore would leave the Jazz with essentially just a 0.3% chance that the Thunder will claim their top-eight protected pick. It’s not officially guaranteed that Utah would be the ones walking away with possession of that pick, but it’s pretty dang close.