A fall COVID surge could still happen in Utah

Utah’s COVID hospitalizations are declining this September — however that does not imply we have sidestepped a possible fall surge.

Driving the information: Fewer Utahns are hospitalized with COVID now than in late September of the previous two years, state knowledge present.

Why it issues: In earlier years, COVID hospitalizations had begun to rise sharply by this time, following an increase in new instances with the onset of fall and the beginning of faculty.

• If hospitalizations keep low, it may imply we aren’t in for a giant winter surge this 12 months.

Sure, however: Fall and winter COVID surges have not adopted the calendar precisely, which suggests a spike in instances and hospitalizations may nonetheless happen.

• Final winter’s greatest surge got here in January with the omicron variant, and delta started circulating in midsummer, driving up instances even earlier than college started in fall 2021.
• 2020’s fall surge started in mid-September, so a giant improve within the coming weeks would not be terribly far behind.

By the numbers: Final week Utah noticed about 18 COVID hospitalizations per day.

• That is far beneath the 31 every day hospitalizations throughout the identical week in 2020, and 59 in 2021.
• Hospitalizations have been dropping fairly steadily since mid-July.

What they’re saying: “We’re positively trending in the precise route … however we’re positively not by means of the thick of fall,” Dr. Angela Dunn, director of the Salt Lake County Well being Division stated in an announcement to Axios. “Final 12 months we had will increase by means of October and into early November.”

• Well being officers are urging Utahns to vaccinate and get the brand new bivalent booster and isolate if they’re sick.

Of notice: Public check websites have wound down and been changed by at-home checks, so statewide case counts usually are not correct.

• Which means a giant rise in hospitalizations may happen with little warning.