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Where Seattle Seahawks’ No. 1 seed odds stand after Week 16

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Where Seattle Seahawks’ No. 1 seed odds stand after Week 16


The NFC West is a crowded mess, with three of the NFL’s best teams vying for both the division crown and the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

And it just got messier.

The 49ers’ win over the Colts on Monday night improves their record to 11-4, tying them with the Rams and putting both teams one game behind the 12-3 Seahawks.

Are Seahawks now the NFC favorite? Sheil Kapadia’s take

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What does it mean for Seattle? I’ll be using The Athletic’s 2025 Playoff Simulator to navigate through the next two weeks…

First, the basics. What’s next for these three teams?

The 49ers have two at home. They host the 11-4 Chicago Bears (the league’s leader in takeaways and coming off back-to-back wins) for Sunday Night Football and then host the Seahawks. The date and time on that one is TBD, usually settled late Week 17, but it’s a favorite to be another primetime matchup.

The current NFL playoff picture

The Seahawks have two on the road. They head to Carolina to take on a hungry 8-7 Panthers team, also coming off a win, that can clinch the NFC South for the first time in a decade with a victory and a Bucs’ loss to the Dolphins. Then the Seahawks head to Santa Clara to face the 49ers.

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The Rams have the easiest slate, facing two teams already eliminated from the postseason. They head to play the 6-9 Falcons and then host the 3-12 Cardinals in the regular-season finale.

What are the Seahawks’ current odds of clinching the No. 1 seed?

The Seahawks entered Monday with 53% odds to clinch the No. 1 seed. There’s not a big hit from the 49ers’ win: Seattle’s odds dip to 48%, but are still the highest of the three (49ers at 27% and the Rams at 11% before games are played this upcoming Sunday).

The only thing eliminated by virtue of the 49ers’ win was the Seahawks’ ability to clinch the top seed this Sunday.

If all three NFC West teams win in Week 17, the Seahawks’ odds are right where they were: 53%. That’s how monumental Week 18’s game against the 49ers is.

Best-case scenario in Week 17: Easy. The Seahawks are the only team of the three to win this Sunday. Their odds would jump to 74%. They get the No. 1 seed one of two ways after that: beat the 49ers, or lose to the 49ers + a Lions win over the Bears.

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Worst-case scenario in Week 17: The Seahawks lose, while the Rams and 49ers win. Seattle’s odds would drop to 7%. But they’re not done; in this scenario, they could still get the top seed with a win over the 49ers + a Cardinals win over the Rams.

How would the Rams clinch? The Rams’ loss to the Seahawks last Thursday night took L.A. out of the driver’s seat. The Rams’ simplest path is to: win out + the Seahawks and 49ers lose one game each + the Lions beat the Bears. The Rams need the Seahawks to lose to make up for the one-game lead, and need the Bears to lose to win a tiebreaker (conference record).

What else should we know?

Oh, that’s right, the Bears.

There’s another team here still fighting for the top seed. Chicago’s Saturday night comeback win over the Packers wasn’t just a thriller; it also added some new playoff implications.

The Bears are currently the No. 2 seed. But they have a better conference record than both the Rams and the Seahawks, so keeping a game ahead is massive.

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Again, all Seattle has to do is win out. It doesn’t matter what any other team does if that happens. But things become tricky if Seattle drops a game.

In that case, if the Seahawks lose to the Panthers, root for the Lions and Cardinals. And always root against your NFC West foes.

More on the Seattle Seahawks

• What led to Seahawks’ uncharacteristic defensive issues vs Rams?
• NFL upholds 1-game suspension for Seahawks’ Derick Hall
• Walker’s big night an encouraging sign for Seattle Seahawks
• Seattle Seahawks Injury Updates: Status of trio of DBs
• Huard: The reason Darnold was able to lead Seahawks over Rams






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Seattle, WA

Seahawks elevate Cam Akers, Amari Kight from practice squad for Panthers game

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Seahawks elevate Cam Akers, Amari Kight from practice squad for Panthers game


If this sounds familiar, that is because both players were elevated to the active roster last week against the Los Angeles Rams as well. Akers is in line to play in his second game with Seattle after playing four snaps on special teams against his former team, the Rams. Akers’ elevation also gives the Seahawks a third running back behind Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet.

With Charles Cross out this week due to injury, Josh Jones will start at left tackle. However, that leaves Seattle needing more offensive tackle depth as well. That is where Kight, the undrafted rookie out of Central Florida, comes in. This is Kight’s third elevation this season, which means the Seahawks would need to sign Kight to the active 53-man roster for him to play again.



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Seattle weather: Pockets of lowland snow, wintry mix overnight

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Seattle weather: Pockets of lowland snow, wintry mix overnight


Snow continues to fall overnight in the passes. The convergence zone will remain active with higher totals along Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass. Snow accumulations may range between 6-12″. Road conditions are changing quickly, so be sure to monitor pass conditions before heading out. 

Snow in the mountains overnight.

Moderate to heavy snow with totals 6-12″.

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A push of colder air moves into western Washington Friday night. While some moisture is still left, there is a possibility of pockets of lowland snow and a wintry mix. As of Friday evening, we’ve gotten a few reports of 1-2 inches of snow accumulation from around Sultan eastward along the US 2 corridor, with higher amounts east of Gold Bar and closer to Index. The snow accumulations at the lower elevations in this stretch have been driven by the precipitation rates as the convergence zone moves through. Closer to the I-5 corridor, it was mostly just rain with some snow mixed in.

Convergence zone sets up into the night.

Rain and snow falling around the region with a chance of lowland snow in the foothills.

The Fraser outflow will ramp up tonight, pushing in cold air into western Whatcom County. A Cold Weather Advisory will go into effect from around 1 a.m. to noon on Saturday with wind chill readings between 12–20 degrees. Please be sure to protect your pets and people as this cold can be dangerous. 

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Cold night in Whatcom County.

Cold air spills into Whatcom County tonight with wind chills in the teens.

Friday night will be one of the colder nights we have seen so far this winter. Temperatures will be near freezing. Be sure to watch for some icy spots by Saturday morning on bridges and overpasses. 

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Forecast lows around Western Washington.

Chilly overnight and Saturday morning nearing freezing.  (FOX13 Seattle)

A drier weekend is ahead with chilly nights and foggy mornings. It will be a quieter end of the year with a few showers returning by New Year’s Day. 

The extended forecast for the Seattle Metro area.

Chilly mornings with fog. Drier to end the year.

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The Source: Information in this story came from FOX 13 Seattle Meteorologist Ilona McCauley and the National Weather Service.

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MLB insider floats an unexpected Mariners trade after Rob Refsnyder signing

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MLB insider floats an unexpected Mariners trade after Rob Refsnyder signing


Christmas came a little early for Seattle Mariners fans who had been waiting not-so-patiently for a new bat following the departure of Jorge Polanco. On Monday, the club struck a one-year, $6.25 million deal with veteran outfielder Rob Refsnyder.

He’s at least half the big bat the Mariners need to account for Polanco’s absence, but there is the awkward question of how, exactly, he’s going to get regular at-bats in 2026. As of now, he looks like a platoon DH with Dominic Canzone, with time in the corner outfield spots walled off by Randy Arozarena in left and a Victor Robles/Luke Raley platoon in right.

Jon Morosi floats an unexpected Mariners trade after Rob Refsnyder signing

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Then again, there is the possibility that another shoe will drop that would open up more playing time for the 34-year-old Refsnyder, who had a .924 OPS against lefties in four seasons with the Boston Red Sox. To this end, Jon Morosi of MLB Network floated an interesting possibility on Monday.

“The signing of Refsnyder, for me, is the type of move you would make if you were expecting to flip Robles for a left-handed bat somewhere,” Morosi said on Wyman and Bob of Seattle Sports. “That’s where my brain goes. Your outfield is a little bit right-handed and maybe we’re about to see a re-balancing of the lineup in some way.”

Trade Robles? Sure. Why not?

That would free up Refsnyder to be the right-handed component of platoons at DH and right field. It’s always good to have flexibility like that, especially given that right-on-left platoon hitters get limited opportunities by default. This year, 72.6 percent of all pitches were thrown by right-handers.

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The catch is that Robles only has so much trade value. His 77-game stint with the Mariners in 2024 is a big success in a greater sea of mediocrity, accounting for 3.1 of just 4.4 total rWAR dating back to 2020. He might not have much surplus value on top of even his $5.125 million salary for 2026.

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Still, it could be possible for the Mariners to throw Robles into a bigger trade as a money-saving tactic. It could be possible in a Ketel Marte trade, and it might even be realistic in a trade for Brendan Donovan. The St. Louis Cardinals would technically save money on Donovan’s $5.4 million projected salary, and they could perhaps be willing to do so it it also meant getting back Lazaro Montes or Jurrangelo Cijntje.

Granted, the Mariners would be selling low on Robles if they moved on from him like this. That could prove to be a case of judging him too harshly for not finding his hitting stroke (i.e., .611 OPS) after badly injuring his shoulder in April.

But with a World Series trip in their sights for 2026, the Mariners simply need to field the best team they can. If they can subtract Robles but still upgrade their offense via a better hitter and more at-bats for Refsnyder, they’ll need to do it.



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