The Baltimore Orioles (28-14) welcome the Seattle Mariners (24-21) to Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the 2nd game of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mariners vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Orioles lead 1-0

The Mariners lost to the Orioles to open the series 9-2 Friday, failing to cover as run-line underdogs. They closed +117 on the moneyline. Seattle has won 3 of its last 5 games yet is just 6-8 over its last 14. The Mariners have struggled offensively, scoring just 2 runs in 2 of their last 3 games.

The Orioles have won 2 straight and 5 of their last 7. However, they are just 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last 5 games (23-19 ATS on the season). Baltimore is the 7th-best home team in MLB with a 16-9 record.

Mariners at Orioles projected starters

RHP Luis Castillo vs. TBD

Castillo (4-5, 3.31 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 54 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 8 K in an 8-4 home win over the Oakland A’s Friday
• Career vs. Orioles: 1-0, 1.50 ERA (6 IP, 1 ER), 2 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 1 start
• 2024 road splits: 2-2, 2.92 ERA (24 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 2 HR, .189 opponent batting average (OBA) in 4 starts

While the Orioles have yet to announce a starter, 30-year-old Cole Irvin seems on deck and could’ve started Friday. It was noted he didn’t start due to injury, so he’s a likely option for Baltimore.

• Irvin 2024 home stats: 2-1, 3.22 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 1.12 WHIP in 4 starts

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Mariners at Orioles odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mariners -106 (bet $106 to win $100) | Orioles -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mariners -1.5 (+158) | Orioles +1.5 (-192)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mariners at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Marines 5, Orioles 3

Moneyline

BET MARINERS (-106).

Castillo struggled to start the season, but he has been on fire over the last month. He has pitched 32 2/3 innings and has 6 ER. During that span, in his starts, the Mariners have road wins over the Rockies and Rangers and home wins over the Braves and A’s. Seattle is 4-1 over his last 5 starts.

It has also scored at least 4 runs in 3 of its last 5, so it has sustained some success offensively. The Orioles blasted the Mariners in the first game and are 16-11 after a win. Seattle is 13-7 after a loss. Considering those trends and Seattle’s pitching edge, take MARINERS (-106).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There’s no value here. The Mariners are too risky as run-line favorites, while the Orioles are far too expensive as run-line underdogs. Ultimately, the moneyline has the only team-specific value here.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 7.5 (-110).

Both teams have had success on the Over as of late. The Mariners are 8-2 O/U in their last 10 games and have scored at least 6 runs in 4 of those.

The Orioles have tallied at least 7 in 3 of their last 9 and are 5-4 O/U in that span. Baltimore is 21-17-3 O/U on the season. The recent trends point to the Over, so back OVER 7.5 (-110).

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MINNEAPOLIS – Napheesa Collier had 29 points, nine rebounds, five assists and six steals, Kayla McBride added 19 points and the Minnesota Lynx beat the Seattle Storm 102-93 in double overtime on Friday night.

Minnesota led 78-67 with 3:22 left in regulation before Seattle scored the next 11 points.

McBride missed two free throws with 24.1 seconds left in regulation and she fouled Jewell Loyd on a 3-point attempt at the other end. Loyd made all three free throws to tie it at 78-all. Courtney Williams missed a baseline jumper for Minnesota and Loyd was off on a jumper at the other end to send it to overtime.

Collier made the first of two free throws to tie it at 88-all with 2.7 seconds left in the first overtime. But she missed the second free throw and Seattle was unable to get a shot off before the buzzer.

Collier and McBride each made a 3-pointer on back-to-back possessions to start the second overtime to put Minnesota ahead 94-88. Alanna Smith made Minnesota’s 13th 3-pointer with 1:25 left to seal it.

The teams combined for 52 turnovers, 38 steals, and 54 free-throw attempts.

Smith finished with 16 points and six blocks and Williams added 10 points for Minnesota (2-0), which was coming off an 83-70 win at Seattle on Tuesday.

Nneka Ogwumike had 24 points, 11 rebounds and five steals for Seattle (0-2). Skylar Diggins-Smith added 22 points and Loyd finished with 20 before fouling out with 59.2 seconds left in the first overtime.

Ogwumike scored the opening points of the first overtime to give Seattle its first lead since it was 4-2.

Loyd struggled again from the field, combining to go 7 for 40 in two games.

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The Seattle Mariners are in first place in the American League West, but it still feels like the team hasn’t reached its full potential.

Rost on Seattle Mariners: What we’ve learned a quarter through the season

Seattle’s pitching staff has been among the best in baseball. That was expected by many, especially those in the Pacific Northwest. The offense has had its highs, but it’s also had plenty of low moments throughout the year.

The Mariners start a 10-game road trip Friday where they’ll see two of the best teams in the American League. It starts with three games against the Baltimore Orioles followed by four at the New York Yankees. That means Seattle will need to put together complete performances to add to its run of winning eight of its nine past series.

For the Mariners to reach their full potential, some players need to step up. Mike Salk broke down who those Mariners are Friday during Ranked on Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk.

Ty France

Ty France quickly became a fan favorite after arriving from the San Diego Padres via trade during the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. France hit immediately with the Mariners, batting .302 in his brief 23-game stint in 2020 and posting a .291 average and .813 OPS while being named in All-Star in 2021. But the 29 year old has largely struggled since injuries slowed him down in 2022. After a disappointing 2023, France trained with Driveline Baseball to retool his swing in hopes of finding the same sort of improvement as teammate J.P. Crawford. It hasn’t been a scorching start to 2024 for France, but he’s starting to show signs of his offseason work paying dividends. He homered twice in this week’s three-game set against a strong Kansas City Royals pitching staff.

“You’re starting to see it at times, some breakout potential, but they banked on him at first base,” Salk said. “They really need him to be that or else that’s a spot that you just gotta find a replacement.”

Mitch Garver

The Mariners signed Mitch Garver to a two-year, $24 million contract this offseason, which made him the most expensive free agent bat president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has ever signed. That deal came after Garver was one of the heroes of the Texas Rangers’ championship run. The designated hitter got off to perhaps the slowest start of many slow starters, and his batting average dipped to as low as .138 on May 3. Garver seems to be finding his swing in May, though. He’s raised his batting average to .174 and his OPS nearly 100 points to .634 this month.

“He’s been well below what the expectation was, well below what he was last year in Texas where he was one of their playoff heroes,” Salk said. “They need Mitch Garver to provide some of that insurance for Julio, some of that protection in the lineup and just be a veteran bat. You know what I want to see from him? Just RBIs, just driving in runs. I don’t care how you get there. I don’t need to see the home runs, just drive in runs, be a run producer, and if he can do that in the middle of the lineup, that will go a long way.”

Jorge Polanco

Polanco was supposed to be the answer to Seattle’s revolving door of second baseman when they sent four players to Minnesota Twins to get him this offseason, but he’s been nowhere near what the Mariners have expected. Polanco is hitting just .192 with a .606 OPS, which are both well below his career averages of .266 and .772. Perhaps most alarming has been Polanco’s skyrocketing strikeout rate. He’s fanning at a 31.5% clip this season, which is nearly 13% above his career average. The increased strikeouts are becoming a real trend for Polanco, who set career highs in strikeout rate in each of the past two seasons.

“That’s who they spent assets on in the offseason, more in terms of the prospects that they gave up, but his salary essentially replaced what they had given up in in Eugenio Suarez,” Salk said. “They were hoping because he’s a little younger, etcetera, you’d get an upgrade. You haven’t had that yet. You need that upgrade from Polanco getting on base, being productive, being a pest, giving a great at bat and, quite frankly, not striking out as much as he has.”

J.P. Crawford

J.P. Crawford is a leader in the Seattle clubhouse and broke out as one of the top offensive shortstops in 2023, setting career highs with a .380 on-base percentage, 19 homers, 65 RBIs and an .818 OPS. Crawford’s 2024 hasn’t been the same story. He was hitting just .198 with four-extra base hits in 98 plate appearances before a right oblique strain sidelined him in late April. Crawford seemed to be destined to return to the team for Friday’s series opener with Baltimore, but he was hit on the hand by a pitch in his presumed final rehab appearance with the Triple-A Tacoma Rainiers. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported Crawford did not travel with the team to Baltimore.

“Come back and be J.P. Crawford here heading into the next part of the season, because you do eventually want him hitting first or second in this lineup,” Salk said. “You do want his late-game heroics. You do want his clutch gene. You want everything that JP can bring to this lineup to be back and helping to make everything go at the top.”

Julio Rodríguez

Last August was a prime example of just how scorching-hot center fielder Julio Rodríguez can be at the plate and how he alone can essentially carry the Mariners’ offense. Rodríguez put up an absurd .429/.474/.724 slash line last August, which helped Seattle surge right back into the playoff race. Rodríguez hasn’t had near the impact the Mariners had hoped earlier this season, especially when it comes to his power production. He’s last among all Mariners with at least 100 plate appearances with just two home runs and seven extra-base hits.

“It’s Julio, man. They just need Julio to be Julio, and it’s getting there,” Salk said. “The at bats are improving, the contact is getting better. (We’re) still waiting for the pop, still waiting for the big moments where he drives in big runs. He’s perfectly capable of doing it. He had the one this year, with his first walkoff. Get Julio hot, man, and just watch the rest of this team follow.”

Listen to the full Ranked segment at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Tune in to Brock and Salk weekdays from 6-10 a.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.

More on the Seattle Mariners

• First-place Mariners face powerful Orioles: Three things to know
• Mariners the ‘team to beat’ in AL West? Why that’s now the case
• Video: Bob’s Breakdown – What’s changed most since start of season?
• Is expected return of Mariners’ J.P. Crawford now in doubt?
• Drayer: Rojas helping Julio an example of Seattle Mariners’ offense evolving

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