Seattle, WA
Is cold weather a factor in Seattle Mariners’ recent slow starts?
Generally, the Seattle Mariners begin the MLB season off scorching, but it surely looks like as a rule they begin off chilly.
And at the least with regards to latest seasons, it seems the climate for Seattle’s early-season video games correlates to that cold and warm pattern.
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I figured I’d look into the climate of the early months of latest M’s seasons as a result of it’s been downright nice in Seattle the previous few days, with sunny skies and temperatures reaching the 70s, and the Mariners haven’t been capable of benefit from the heat right here. As a substitute, they’ve been on a street journey the place they’d collection in chilly Philadelphia and Oakland sandwiched round a three-game respite in Toronto’s climate-controlled Rogers Centre.
Issues obtained particularly bleak Tuesday after they have been hitless into the eighth inning towards the A’s in 54-degree climate that included spurts of rain, although the Mariners have been capable of pull out a 2-1 win over the majors’ worst staff.
When the Mariners have been in Seattle this yr, it’s usually been depressing climate. And after they return Friday to T-Cell Park to start a six-game homestand, they’ll deliver the chilly again with them, too. Forecasts have Seattle wet and underneath 60 levels over the weekend, then inching as much as a excessive of 64 levels for the homestand finale on Might 10 towards the Texas Rangers.
May this stretch of chilly climate have one thing to do with the M’s struggling on offense early within the season, one thing additionally they did final yr throughout an an identical 13-16 begin earlier than happening to finish their lengthy postseason drought?
Because it stands, the Mariners have performed 29 video games coming into Wednesday’s recreation in Oakland (forecast: excessive of 57 with rain), with 11 of them going down in temperatures underneath 50 levels, 19 complete underneath 55 levels, and simply six over 65 levels (together with the three underneath the roof in Toronto). By way of these 29 video games, the M’s are 13-16 and have largely struggled offensively.
I do know what your query is true now.
“So? Correlation doesn’t suggest causation, dude.”
That’s true. And I’m not gonna say you’ll want to imagine climate is why the Seattle Mariners have upset a month into what many (together with myself) have known as essentially the most anticipated season in staff historical past. There are plenty of elements for that we will level to. They take a look at least a bat quick, and in the event you have been pissed off by the offseason they put collectively, you’re in all probability going to assume that’s the most important cause. I’ve additionally already written (with perception from Seattle Sports activities’ Mike Salk) about how T-Cell Park’s league-worst park issue could also be hindering offseason efforts to signal hitters.
All these and extra are in all probability elements, and I feel if you wish to come up for an evidence for a second straight 13-16 begin by the Mariners, realizing how the climate they’ve performed in compares to the recent begins they’d within the two earlier common seasons is worth it in serving to you come to a conclusion.
So right here, have a look:
2019 Seattle Mariners (18-11 begin)
Common temperature: 62.2 levels
Longest stretch of sub-60 levels: Six video games
Variety of video games of at the least 60 levels: 15 video games
Runs per recreation by means of 29 video games: 6.3
Full-season runs per recreation: 4.7
Closing file: 68-94
2021 Mariners (16-13 begin)
Common temperature: 60.4 levels
Longest stretch of sub-60 levels: Three video games (twice)
Variety of video games of at the least 60 levels: 16 video games
Runs per recreation by means of 29 video games: 4.1
Full-season runs per recreation: 4.3
Closing file: 90-72
2022 Mariners (13-16 begin)
Common temperature: 58.3 levels
Longest stretch of sub-60 levels: 9 video games
Variety of video games of at the least 60 levels: 12 video games
Runs per recreation by means of 29 video games: 4.1
Full-season runs per recreation: 4.3
Closing file: 90-72
2023 Mariners (13-16 begin)
Common temperature: 54.4 levels
Longest stretch of sub-60 levels: 10 video games
Variety of video games of at the least 60 levels: 12 video games (additionally a 10-game stretch)
Runs per recreation by means of 29 video games: 4.2
So, is that this something? I feel so. Am I saying for this reason the offense has principally fallen flat early on the previous two seasons? No, it’s positively not the one cause, but it surely certain can’t assist.
Hitting within the chilly is tough – more durable than pitching is – and to play video games for such a chronic interval early on in 50-degree climate needs to be a grind. Add that to the truth that the Mariners at all times have the worst journey within the league due to how far-off they’re from each different MLB staff, and I feel you might perceive why the M’s has been worse off out of the gate lately when caught in colder climate.
It’s attention-grabbing to me that the offense for the 2019 Mariners staff that got here into the season with no expectations flourished early on in a a lot hotter first month of the season, particularly while you see how the back-to-back 90-win M’s groups in 2021 and 2022 each averaged 4.1 runs per recreation in colder climate.
What actually stands out to me, although, is that the present Mariners have performed not only a 12-game stretch in temperatures beneath 60 levels, but additionally a separate 10-game stretch. That sounds brutal, particularly if you start thinking about simply how mentally powerful slumps might be on hitters, particularly in a yr with large expectations for his or her staff.
I might by no means say the cause the Mariners have began sluggish the previous two years is as a result of they’ve been caught in chilly temperatures in April. However I might additionally by no means say it isn’t a cause in any respect.
The solutions to questions on baseball groups are not often black and white. There are often a lot of elements that go into them. And for me, the climate is simply one other issue to contemplate.
The complete breakdown
Temperatures for the primary 29 video games of every of the final 4 full Seattle Mariners seasons
• 2019: 72 (dome), 72 (dome), 61, 58, 64, 54, 66, 63, 44, 54, 63, 77, 74, 82, 53, 56, 53, 50, 54, 54, 62, 77, 64, 63, 68, 65, 68, 56, 56
Common: 62.2 levels
• 2021: 54, 53, 60, 51, 54, 47, 67, 47, 48, 61, 61, 63, 64, 69, 70, 63, 63, 59, 46, 58, 71, 50, 77, 73, 73, 73, 65, 57, 54
Common: 60.4 levels
• 2022: 45, 48, 53, 57, 63, 62, 48, 51, 44, 47, 52, 52, 49, 55, 57, 60, 72 (dome), 72 (dome), 72 (dome), 72 (dome), 72 (dome), 72 (dome), 73 (dome), 73 (dome), 72 (dome), 52, 50, 47, 47
Common: 58.3 levels
• 2023: 54, 45, 47, 44, 45, 50, 48, 41, 45, 52, 67, 76, 77, 56, 51, 48, 48, 46, 48, 52, 59, 54, 57, 54, 55, 68 (dome), 68 (dome), 68 (dome), 54
Common: 54.4 levels (11 beneath 50, 19 beneath 55, 6 over 65 – 3 in domes)
Extra on the Seattle Mariners
• Fann: Bryce Miller debut permits Mariners a short lived sigh of reduction
• Mariners designate Tommy La Stella for project
• Bob’s Mariners Breakdown: Making sense of powerful first month
• ESPN’s Passan: Mariners ‘in for an extended season’ if Julio stays at this tempo
• Drayer: How Bryce Miller matches into Seattle Mariners’ rotation plans