The Seattle Mariners’ offseason will not be completed in a nice, neat, run-it-back bow, with reports Saturday morning that Jorge Polanco and the Mets are in agreement on a two-year, $40 million contract.

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The number was stunning, with most industry insiders estimating Polanco would be looking at something closer to $12-15 million per year. Even ESPN’s Jeff Passan, one of the few to estimate Polanco would receive above $15 million per year, was likely to be surprised Saturday morning.

“He’s not getting $20 million a year,” Passan told Seattle Sports’ Brock and Salk on Tuesday. “I think at the end of the day, it’s probably going to be $14-17 million a year. If there are two teams duking it out at the end, maybe it goes up a million a year. It looks like it is going to be a three-year deal, but something along the lines of three (years) for $45-50 (million). I think that’s about right.”

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The estimated $17 million salary sounded outrageous to the show hosts, but a lot can change this time of year, namely the Mets losing Pete Alonso to the Orioles. In comparison, Polanco is not exactly a splash after the loss of Alonso, but his versatility and offense when healthy (an .821 OPS in 2025) were attractive to the Mets.

Polanco going elsewhere was certainly a possibility – perhaps established as a good possibility when he failed to sign quickly, unlike the Mariners’ No. 1 target of the offseason, Josh Naylor. They were well aware of this with president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto recently admitting the odds were technically against them with numerous teams involved. The Mariners valued Polanco but were outbid by a team that needed to make a move. So they must move on.

While the Mariners remained engaged in talks with free agents this week, it is the trade market where the most attractive candidates reside, with the Cardinals expected to trade Brendan Donovan and the Diamondbacks making Ketel Marte available.

Donovan and Marte would be great fits on the field and on the salary spreadsheet for Seattle, but they would come at the cost of prospect capital with the Cardinals, and to a lesser extent Diamondbacks, dealing from a position of leverage.

The Cardinals do not have to deal Donovan, who has two years remaining under club control, but his value presents new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom the opportunity to make a significant early organizational mark.

In the case of Marte, the leverage he brings the Diamondbacks is short-lived as he will become a 10-and-5 player in the first weeks of the season, meaning he will be able to veto any trades at that point.

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On the free agent market, despite reports that agent Scott Boras reached out to the Mariners about third baseman Alex Bregman having some interest in the team, the big-ticket players appear to remain off limits for the Mariners. They have maintained that the door would be open for Eugenio Suárez in the right circumstances. Assuming that would be a one-year deal, that signing seems unlikely to happen. The remaining free agent infielders appear to be more stopgap options of the take-a-chance variety with names like Willi Castro, Luis Rengifo or even Adam Frazier available.

The loss of Polanco and his production at the plate put Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander in the position where they are going to have to make a gamble. They have a track record of making trades that end up requiring lower-ranked prospects than expected. If that is not the norm this winter, then do they make that painful prospect trade, or trade a starter from the big league roster? Does ownership decide it can make a gamble in expanding the budget for a higher-priced free agent, or does it take the gamble of making smaller moves, essentially staying where they are, seeing how it plays out and attempting to make big moves at the trade deadline once again?

The Mariners and Mariners fans have just been hit with a large dose of uncertainty. In the uncertainty are opportunities, however, and the remainder of the offseason should not be quiet.

More Seattle Mariners offseason coverage

• Backup catcher target emerges for Seattle Mariners, per reports
• Salk: What we know and think about Seattle Mariners’ offseason needs
• Why Nolan Arenado could make sense as a Seattle Mariners trade target
• Seattle Mariners pick two, lose one in minor league phase of Rule 5 draft
• With a tweak, Jose Ferrer could be special in Seattle Mariners’ bullpen

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