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How do the Seattle Mariners beat Tarik Skubal for a 4th time?

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How do the Seattle Mariners beat Tarik Skubal for a 4th time?


Facing the best pitcher in the world over the past 24 months is not ideal when faced with a winner-take-all game. That’s the situation the Seattle Mariners are in, however, with Tarik Skubal on the hill Friday. This will be their fourth matchup against the Detroit Tigers’ ace, needing to find a way to go 4-0 in those games. Skubal’s playoff numbers are brilliant, in keeping with his regular season, but he’s been leaned on more than ever before this season, and unless Seattle ambushes him devastatingly out the gates, the southpaw from Seattle U will surpass his career-high for innings pitched on Friday. What will it take for the M’s to overcome Skubal a fourth time?

Win one came in early April, home in Seattle, with the second during Seattle’s obliteration of the Detroit Tigers just before the All-Star Break. The April game, Seattle’s top of the order looked fairly familiar, but the six through eight were all absent in October.

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Lefty-masher Dylan Moore did just that, starting at third and providing the thump. Both Victor Robles and Randy Arozarena scalded the ball, and Seattle’s patient approach led to eight punchouts but also three walks along with six hits. Skubal’s approach on the day was not surprising, with him attacking Seattle up in the zone with four-seamers, 43 of his 93 pitches being those heaters. He added 11 sinkers, but it’s notable that Skubal averaged 96.7-97.1 mph on those heaters in April. Of note, the weather that day was just 50 degrees, with the roof closed due to the cold and wet, conditions likely to be quite similar to Friday night’s 70% chance of rain and mid-50s forecast.

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If Skubal had showcased the same juice he’d had against Cleveland in the Wild Card round, it would’ve been a more daunting task. Skubal threw just six sliders and three curveballs on the day, roughly in keeping with his year-long usage (12% and 3%, respectively). His preeminent secondary was the 30 changeups he wove, which actually became Skubal’s foremost pitch overall by usage on the season at 31%. Both the four-seam and changeup were highly effective, getting whiffs nearly half the time hitters swung, but the M’s scalded the changeup when they did get ahold of it.

The pitch mix is pertinent, because when he took on Seattle again in July, the M’s lineup was largely familiar, but Skubal’s approach shifted.

Looking to outdo his initial outing, Skubal threw a significantly different medley, to even less success. Hurling 29 changeups in his 87 pitches, Skubal averaged essentially identical velocity on his heater and could not create as much swing and miss. His sinker was the ~main heater in this outing, 23 to 21 in terms of sinkers vs. four-seamers, and he added 13 sliders and just a single curveball.

Following a herculean effort in the Wild Card round that saw him throw a career-high 107 pitches, 43 of which were 98+ mph, 12 of which were 100+ mph, there may have been an element of fatigue for Skubal. Still, he was on normal rest Sunday against the M’s, and will be once more Friday, as will Luis Castillo, with George Kirby having an additional fifth day. On Sunday we saw a Skubal still above his season averages, sitting 98.1 mph on his fastballs but down from the 99.1 average he’d mustered against the Guardians.

In that Sunday outing, Skubal re-jiggered his pitch mix again, throwing his most even split of all four primary pitches (no curveballs) to date, with over half of his 97 offerings being heaters (37 four-seams, 22 sinkers). In particular, he attacked the lineup’s only two lefties – Josh Naylor and J.P. Crawford, with sinkers, using his four-seam just once against them. One of the great challenges Seattle faces is that, like Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller (as well as George Kirby in years past), Skubal lives in the strike zone. His stuff is so potent that he can get away with it, and thereby avoid walks. Indeed, Skubal’s lone free pass last night gives him now 21 of his 33 starts this year with one or fewer bases on balls allowed. Cleveland and Seattle are the only teams to have forced multiple free passes from the presumed repeat Cy Young.

It’s too much to hope for Skubal to be fatigued, as the mighty lefty will have adrenaline pumping in the early innings at minimum. What Seattle will be hoping to do, however, is continue an impressive trend of avoiding chasing against Skubal. Through their first three games, Seattle has swung at pitches out of the zone 35.1% (April), 23.8% (July), and 33% (October) of the time against Skubal. It’s a meaningful edge on a pitcher whose overall chase rate is 37.6%. Over the course of the game, that’s maybe only a handful of pitches, but the outcomes of playoff games hinge on those sorts of advantages. Seattle’s ability to attack Skubal in the zone, and let him dig a hole outside of it, relative to their opponents, is what may give them a chance to bury him for good this fall.

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It’s likely Skubal understood this, fading his changeup usage despite it being his best pitch (and one of the best in the sport) on Sunday in hopes of putting the M’s on the back foot. If I were calling pitches for him, I’d likely lean on the changeup more forcefully regardless on Friday night, as Seattle’s ability to make contact with the sinker and four-seam is not as dangerous on a chilly, wet, October night in T-Mobile Park. For Seattle, an effort to force Skubal into deeper counts is likely the best approach, aggressive early, with defensive, foul-ball swings and takes at the two-strike mark. Detroit’s beleaguered bullpen is fundamentally a weaker unit than Seattle’s – and certainly than Skubal himself – no matter what occurred on Wednesday. It all only matters so much, ultimately – baseball is a game easiest analyzed in the aggregate, with sample sizes of immense heft. On one night in October, anything is possible.



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Seattle, WA

Detectives Investigating Robbery, Shooting Over $20 Necklace – SPD Blotter

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Detectives Investigating Robbery, Shooting Over  Necklace – SPD Blotter


Seattle police detectives are investigating a robbery and shooting of a 23-year-old man over a $20 necklace in Pioneer Square this morning.

At about 12:40 a.m., patrol officers responded to a shooting in the 500 block of 2nd Avenue. There, they found a victim, bleeding, with a gunshot wound to his right thigh. Police and the Seattle Fire Department treated his injury. Medics took him to Harborview Medical Center (HMC) in stable condition.

Police determined that the victim just left a bar, getting into the passenger seat of his friend’s car, when the suspect, wearing a ski mask and armed with a firearm, approached him and demanded his necklace. They struggled over the item, and the suspect shot the victim in the leg. The shooter fled in a vehicle with the necklace before police arrived. The value of the “chain” is about $20.

Detectives in the Robbery Unit responded to the scene and HMC. Anyone with information is asked to call the SPD Violent Crimes Tip line at 206-233-5000. Anonymous tips are accepted.

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Incident Number: 2026-57536



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Fast Start for Kraken Win, Homestand | Seattle Kraken

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Fast Start for Kraken Win, Homestand | Seattle Kraken


That stretch begins with five more home games: A skilled and successful Carolina squad Monday, followed by St. Louis (for the second time in a week) Wednesday, Ottawa next Saturday, then Nashville (just behind Seattle in the West wild-card race) on March 10 and then finishing with Western Conference leader Colorado March 12.

Stars Shine and Star-Crossed Hat Trick

Vince Dunn opened the scoring in his 600th NHL game. Jordan Eberle topped the best Kraken-season goals mark with his 21st and 22nd goals of the year, with 23 games left to flirt with his first 30-plus goals on the year since his sophomore season in 2011-12. Joey Daccord registered 27 saves on the victorious night, including nine high-danger chances in the first 40 minutes alone.

To the fans’ disappointment, the slick-stickhandling Daccord missed a historic goalie goal by inches. But the sellout crowd was rewarded when Eberle cashed in on the Vancouver empty net. Eberle now has four two-goal games this season.

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In a bizarre twist, when Eberle scored that empty-netter, Kraken fans rightfully cheered and tossed headwear for what was presumed to be a hat-trick score. But after Eberle scored, the scoring change on the Kraken’s power play goal was announced when off-ice officials realized Eberle’s shot had just ever-so-slightly deflected off Matty Beniers’ skate. So no hat trick for the second time this season. Linemate Jared McCann and hat-tossing fans thought the Kraken’s all-time leading scorer had notched a hat trick earlier this season, only to have it reversed when an offside infraction by, wait for it, Beniers, erased the goal.

Eberle joked post-game that maybe fans deserved some hats. The Kraken captain also said when Daccord missed by inches on his goalie goal, he was on the bench saying, “he got it, he got it.” Post-game, Eberle said, “It’s just a matter of time before he gets one” because he greatly admires the goaltender’s puck-handling skills.

The Kraken came out fast Saturday night with two goals, a couple of near-misses, lots of scoring attempts and pucks on net during the first 20 minutes. One near-miss was a hard wrist shot from Jordan Eberle that clanged off the far post. But no matter, Eberle scored a pivotal goal in the second period, getting in front of a Vancouver shot and chasing his own ricochet to create a breakaway with his still-elite speed. The 35-year-old Seattle captain went to his lethal backhand to beat Canucks goalie Kevin Lankinen. Eberle’s tally re-upped the two-goal lead.

Good night for Kraken special teams as well. The penalty killer snuffed an early third period Canucks power play to keep the two-score cushion. Later third period, Matty Beniers scored on the power play, deflecting an Eberle shot, to push the score to 4-1. Chandler Stephenson earned his second point of the night with the primary assist. Same for Dunn, who notched the second assist. The Kraken needed just 10 seconds to score the man-advantage marker.

Captaining His Best Kraken Season…

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It is Eberle’s 21st goal of the season. The next one he scores will set a new high as a Kraken for the teammate everyone calls “Ebs.” That makes it three of five seasons that Eberle has scored 20 or more goals. Eberle almost scored again later second period when matching cross-checking penalties on SEA forward Kaapo Kakko and VAN defenseman Filip Hronek. The ensuing 4-on-4 play was dominated by the Kraken quartet of Eberle, Matty Beniers, Brandon Montour and Ryker Evans. Beniers stood with some moves and an improv that had future Hall of Fame play-by-play man John Forslund saying, “Beniers did everything but score.” It was heartening to see Seattle flexing its offensive chops with a 3-1 lead.

The Kraken scored twice in an opening 20 minutes played to order, returning to the hard forechecking game they exhibited on a heater 10-game streak before the Olympic break. The starting goalie did his part, stopping all nine of Vancouver’s shots in the first 20 minutes to bring confidence to the first-intermission home locker room.  

Jumping Out of the Starting Blocks

The Kraken faithful were mega-decibel loud during the announcement of the starting lineups, welcoming back Olympian bronze medalists Kaapo Kakko and Eeli Tolvanen, as well as Seattle teammates. This week’s two road losses forgotten, replaced by rousing cheers for starters and fourth-liners Freddy Gaudreau, centering Jacob Melanson and Ben Meyers (on the wing for the first since a road matchup in LA right before the winter holiday break).

Defenseman Cale Fleury and Ryker Evans rounded out the skaters in front of Joey Daccord. It’s not a stretch to think head coach Lane Lambert was sending a message with his fourth line and third pair getting the first shift after losing two games in the Midwest by a composite score of 9-2.

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Saturday morning, both defenseman Vince Dunn and Lambert both talked about what would be the ideal first 10 to 20 minutes in this Pacific Division showdown with rival Vancouver.

“We need to play simple and hard and direct,” said Dunn, who was playing in his 600th NHL game, 333 with Seattle. “I think we’re very connected when we can get our forecheck going. I think the way we play as a five-man unit is that we slow teams down and don’t get scrambled in our own end. We’re more patient in our own end and letting guys accept their positions and roles and areas that they need to defend in.

“Right away, we need to start shooting pucks … the past two games, the shot count hasn’t been where we wanted it to be in the first 10 minutes. So let’s get some looks and see what happens. Let’s see if we can get the other team scrambling.”



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Two local soccer scribes to discuss Seattle’s road to 2026

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Two local soccer scribes to discuss Seattle’s road to 2026


From miners, lumberjacks and seamen to the world arriving on our shores this summer, Folio Seattle will host a program Monday night, with two local soccer scribes detailing the region’s collective footy history in “Seattle’s Road to the 2026 World Cup.”

Matt Pentz, a former soccer reporter for The Seattle Times and The Athletic, is teaming with historian Frank MacDonald, executive director for Washington State Legends of Soccer and occasional Sounder at Heart contributor. The program goes from 6-8 PM at the Folio location in Pike Place Market. Donations of any amount are accepted. 

Pentz and MacDonald will dive into the state’s century-plus adoration of the game and highlight what’s changed in the last generation, since Seattle failed to land matches for the 1994 FIFA World Cup. 

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