The Seattle Seahawks (4-5) are on the road in Week 11 taking on the San Francisco 49ers (5-4). Kickoff from Levi’s Stadium is Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Seahawks vs. 49ers odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Seahawks, coming off their bye, have lost 2 straight games and 5 of their last 6 after a 3-0 start to the season. Their last game was a 26-20 overtime home loss to the LA Rams as 1-point underdogs.

The 49ers have won 2 in a row. They beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20 on the road last week on a last-second field goal by K Jake Moody. They failed to cover the 6.5-point spread as favorites.

The 49ers won the first meeting this year 36-24 in Seattle in Week 6.

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Seahawks at 49ers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated at 12:21 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Seahawks +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | 49ers -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
• Against the spread (ATS): Seahawks +6.5 (-110) | 49ers -6.5 (-110)
• Over/Under (O/U): 48 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Seahawks at 49ers key injuries

Seahawks

• TE Noah Fant (groin) out
• TE Brady Russell (foot) out
• C Connor Williams (personal – announced retirement) out

49ers

• OL Aaron Banks (thigh) questionable
• DE Nick Bosa (hip) questionable
• DT Kevin Givens (groin) out
• OL Jon Feliciano (knee) questionable
• DE Yetur Gross-Matos (knee) questionable
• CB Darrell Luter (pelvis) doubtful
• TE George Kittle (hamstring) questionable
• CB Charvarius Ward (personal) out
• OL Trent Williams (ankle) questionable
• P Mitch Wishnowsky (back) out

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Seahawks at 49ers picks and predictions

Prediction

49ers 27, Seahawks 23

Moneyline

Seattle has allowed 29.7 points per game in the 6 games after their 3-0 start while San Francisco has allowed between 20 and 28 points in each of their last 5 games.

The Niners have beaten the Seahawks in 6 straight games. San Fran can tie the idle Arizona Cardinals atop the NFC West with a win. They should pick up the win,, even though they are banged up, but -300 odds aren’t worth the action.

PASS.

Against the spread

The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Seattle, but their wins in the last 2 games have not been by more than 6 points.

Four of Seattle’s losses this season have been by more than 6 points, but with so many injuries for the Niners, this will stay close.

BET SEAHAWKS +6.5 (-110).

Over/Under

Their first meeting had 60 total points, but only 2 of the last 6 games for the Niners have surpassed 48. None of the last 3 games for the Seahawks have topped 48.

But with the Seahawks allowing nearly 30 points per game in the last 6 contests and San Francisco’s opponents averaging 24 over the last 5, expect some points.

BET OVER 48 (-110).

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After a much-needed bye week that included multiple personnel changes and abrupt losses, the Seattle Seahawks are beginning the most crucial stretch of the 2024 season in Week 11.

Their first test will be against the San Francisco 49ers — the second of two matchups this season with their division rivals. Seattle (4-5, 0-2 NFC West) will try to get their first in-division victory when they head to Levi’s Stadium to face the Niners (5-4, 1-2 NFC West).

The Seahawks need to get back on track with all their recent changes, which included waiving linebacker Tyrel Dodson — the team leader in defensive snaps — and losing starting center Connor Williams to retirement midseason. Mike Macdonald’s team is entering a crucial point in its evolution, and the team’s demeanor on Sunday will be telling.

Seattle and San Francisco kick off at 1:05 p.m. on Sunday. Here are five storylines to watch in Seattle’s Week 11 road game versus the Niners.

Even Macdonald appeared somewhat surprised while delivering the news on Friday that Williams decided to retire after the team’s bye week. Williams, who signed with the Seahawks late in training camp after coming off a serious knee injury, hung up his cleats for personal reasons, per Macdonald — not because of a lingering knee issue.

But now an already struggling Seahawks offensive line has two new starters heading into Week 11: second-year center Olu Oluwatimi and right tackle Abraham Lucas. Oluwatimi has just one career start (Week 7 of last season), while Lucas was the team’s full-time starter as a rookie in 2022. He played in just six games last season and worked back from offseason knee surgery for the first 10 weeks of the season.

The changes could benefit what was one of the worst offensive lines in the league halfway through this season. But that big of a shake-up could require a few weeks for the unit to find a groove. Their protection of Geno Smith and run-blocking effectiveness will greatly impact this game.

The offensive line changes are far from the only personnel differences for the Seahawks in this game. Ernest Jones IV will wear the green dot on defense for the first time, and rookie fourth-round pick Tyrice Knight will start at weakside linebacker next to Jones. Both have just two starts for Seattle this season despite the team being nine games into the season.

Both of the Seahawks’ free-agent linebacker additions are gone. Jerome Baker was traded for Jones, and Tyrel Dodson was waived after the bye. The latter is now beginning his tenure with the Miami Dolphins as a backup and special teams contributor. It was an $11 million failed experiment that didn’t even last one season.

The coaching staff and players have heaped praise on Knight and Jones. The expectation is the new tandem will be an improvement on what Seattle has had most of the season. That can only be proven by a good performance against the team’s most bitter rivals.

In Week 6 versus the Niners, the Seahawks posted a season-high 90.3 percent pressure rate getting after Purdy, but they failed to register a single sack. As a result, Purdy completed 18 of 28 passes for 255 yards and three touchdowns in Seattle’s 36-24 loss.

The Seahawks’ pass rush has been effective this season, but their pressure-to-sack ratio is by far the unit’s worst metric. Seattle entered their bye week 27th in the league in that area (12.07 percent) and tied for third in total pressures (174) — highlighting the margin between how frequently the team is affecting the quarterback but not creating negative plays.

San Francisco was put in just 12 third-down situations in as many drives in the first matchup between these teams. Taking Purdy to the ground has to be an emphasis to get the Niners behind the sticks.

The Niners piled up 228 rushing yards versus the Seahawks with their second- and third-string running backs in Week 6. Now, the return of All-Pro Christian McCaffrey makes San Francisco’s offense even more difficult to defend.

It’s hard to compare the first matchup to now with all the changes on Seattle’s defense. As defensive coordinator Aden Durde said on Thursday, “This is a different defense than the one we played with when we played them last time.” Still, that creates more variables that will be meshing for the first time. The run defense has to be improved.

San Francisco is fourth in the league in rush yards per game (149.7) and Seattle is seventh-worst in rush yards allowed (139.4). Limiting that attack would be a positive moving into the rest of the season for the Seahawks.

Seattle averaged 25.7 points per game with Metcalf on the field from Weeks 1–7 and then scored a combined 30 points in the two games he was sidelined. Those point totals don’t operate in a vacuum, but there’s no doubt the offense was limited without its top vertical threat.

Even with a bye and missing two of the Seahawks’ games, Metcalf is 17th in the NFL with 568 receiving yards — currently tied with fellow Seattle receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has played all nine games. Metcalf’s 16.2 yards per reception also ranks ninth among receivers with at least 20 catches this season.

The Seahawks have shown the offense is more limited when they don’t have Metcalf to stretch the field. Even though Smith-Njigba had a career game in Week 9, Metcalf has been that for Seattle for six seasons now, and he was on pace for a career-best season before his injury.

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Seahawks Injuries: Metcalf and Lucas to return, 2 starters out vs. 49ers

After the Seahawks’ most recent game Week 9 against the Los Angeles Rams, ESPN NFL analyst Ben Solak shared a stat that illustrated some of the struggles plaguing the team’s offense. According to Elias Stats and ESPN Stats & Info, the unit is facing an average distance to gain of 8.9 yards on third-down attempts, which would be the worst mark in the NFL since at least 1980.

Those long third-down situations have certainly showed up on the stat sheet. Seattle’s 35.2% third-down conversion rate ranks 24th in the NFL.

During Thursday’s edition of Seattle Sports’ Wyman and Bob, Seahawks radio network analysts and former NFL players Dave Wyman and Ray Roberts discussed what the team can do to help put itself in better situations on third downs.

“They do have a pretty efficient passing game,” Wyman said. “I mean, they throw the heck out football, but I’ve always kind of felt like people kind of clinch up on third down. … Maybe if you have a four-down mentality it would help or something, and then also it’s always about what you’re doing on first and second (down).”

The long third-down distances could be attributed to the lack of run plays being called on offense, especially on early downs. The Seahawks have run the ball more frequently in their past three games, but they still rank 30th in the league in percentage of runs plays called, per TeamRankings.com.

“When (former head coach) Pete (Carroll) was here, the complaint was (it’s) run, run, pass, but with the makeup of the team now, you start the game most of the time throwing the football,” Roberts said. “So imagine now it’s first-and-10 and there’s an incompletion. Now you’re at second-and-10, so you’re probably gonna pick up another maybe four or five yards on the tight end pass or something, hopefully, or you try to run, so you end up on these really long third downs.”

However, the run game hasn’t been very effective behind a struggling offensive line. The Seahawks are 22nd in the league 4.1 yards per carry and have averaged just 3.2 yardsover the past three games.

“When the running game is struggling … you got to lean on the tight ends a little more and some of the underneath throws,” Roberts said. “… If you can get that first-down completion to a tight end over the middle and you get those first four yards or five yards and (on) second down maybe you do it again or you run the ball for two or three yards, now (you’ve gained) eight yards, maybe seven yards.

“Now your at third-and-medium-to-short range where you have a playbook that’s wide open and you have a greater chance to convert to third down. That’s the kind of that’s how I looked at it when I heard (the stat).”

Listen the full conversation at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Tune in to Wyman and Bob weekdays from 2-6 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app.

More on Seattle Seahawks

• Elevated 49ers’ offense provides big test for Seahawks
• What are realistic expectations for Abe Lucas in potential return?
• NFL insider Daniel Jeremiah reacts to Seahawks cutting Tyrel Dodson
• The Seattle Seahawks’ next two games are what really matter
• Lefko: Seahawks at crossroads as a franchise, with Geno at the center

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