The San Francisco Giants have been patiently waiting for their star free agent signing, shortstop Willy Adames, to live up to the billing.

He agreed to a seven-year, $182 million deal with the club, the largest in franchise history, but has not provided the team with the kind of production they were hoping for.

Adames has been slightly below-average at the plate with a 96 OPS+ and 96 Rbat+. However, after an underwhelming April, he has begun to show some signs of life in May.

Despite having less than half the plate appearances this month than in March/April, he already has more home runs (3) in May than he did in the first month of the season (2) and has matched his doubles total with five.

A .276/.344/.517 slash line in May is certainly more in line with the kind of production the Giants were expecting from their biggest offseason addition.

On the right track, his overall numbers now sit at .230/.308/.371 with five home runs, 10 doubles and 22 RBI.

Luckily for San Francisco, veteran Wilmer Flores has helped pick up the slack in the early going, putting together a historic performance against the Athletics that has him tied for the MLB lead with 41 RBI.

What could have led to such a disappointing start for Adames?

As shared by Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required), his swing speed has dropped in 2025 compared to 2024.

A swing-speed increase last year is one of the reasons that Adames put together a career year with 32 home runs, 33 doubles and 112 RBI. He was routinely registering “fast swings” and doing damage.

This year, those swings have been few and far between.

His 1.7 mph drop, going from 73.6 mph to 71.9, is the ninth-largest drop in 2025. His teammate, left fielder Heliot Ramos, is also on the list, but he has not suffered the same power outage as Adames has.

The drop in swing speed is a concern and something to keep an eye on. In addition to his defensive prowess continuing to regress, this could be a contract San Francisco soon comes to regret handing out.

The San Francisco Giants have been one of the biggest surprises in baseball to this point in the 2025 MLB regular season.

Entering play on May 16, they have a 25-19 record, three games behind the San Diego Padres and four games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West.

Keeping within arm’s length of those two juggernauts will not be easy. Executives around the league believe that the disparity in the teams’ depth will be the difference, ultimately keeping the Giants from moving up in the standings.

San Francisco has been incredibly fortunate in the injury department, which has played a part in their success. Not having to move pieces around on the roster constantly has been a positive; the only injury they have had to deal with to this point is second baseman Tyler Fitzgerald.

Right now, even with their hot start, they are a 50/50 shot at advancing and have landed in the “Coin Flips, But Leaning ‘No Postseason’” tier of the playoff chance rankings that Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report put together.

Baseball-Reference views them in the best light with a 60.8% chance of making the postseason. Both FanGraphs and PECOTA are below 50% with 46.0% and 42.8%, respectively.

It would be great for their good run of health to continue, but what would really help improve their odds of making the postseason is their star free agent signings, shortstop Willy Adames and starting pitcher Justin Verlander, living up to their contracts.

Signed away from the Milwaukee Brewers, he agreed to a seven-year, $182 million deal, the largest contract in franchise history. 

The slugging shortstop had a brutal April but has been showing signs of turning things around recently, already hitting more home runs (3) in May than in March/April (2) in less than half the plate appearances.

Encouragingly, he is finding success at Oracle Park, a notoriously tough place for power hitters to succeed. He has a .269/.348/.449 slash line with three home runs, five doubles and 11 RBI in only 89 plate appearances.

On the road, Adames has a .189/.271/.305 slash line with two home runs, five doubles and 10 RBI in 107 plate appearances.

The 42-year-old future Hall of Fame pitcher agreed to a one-year, $15 million deal. He has a 4.31 ERA across 48 innings, looking the part of a backend innings-eater at this point in his career. Verlander is still seeking his first win with his new club.

Upping their production would greatly improve San Francisco’s chances of getting back into the playoffs.