Just over 100 days into his term, Mayor Daniel Lurie has done a few things right: schmoozing the Board of Supervisors, trying to clean up San Francisco’s streets and engaging in much-needed boosterism of a city with an unsavory reputation, said two veteran City Hall politicos speaking with Mission Local at an event on Thursday.

Eric Jaye, former Mayor Gavin Newsom’s chief strategist and now a political consultant, spoke on a panel with former city controller and PUC general manager Ed Harrington before a full house at Manny’s cafe. The event was moderated by Mission Local senior editor Joe Rivano Barros.

Both panelists said it was too soon to tell whether the Lurie administration would be a success, but that it is a sea change from the London Breed administration — at least in terms of vibes.

“I could make a long list of what he’s done wrong, a very long list,” Jaye said, of Lurie. “But I would give him honestly an A right now because the things he’s done right are so important.” 

Those right things include: making good on the nice-guy persona that was a big part of his campaign talking up SF instead of tearing it down, and delivering chocolates to at least one supervisor on her birthday. The change in vibes at City Hall matters for getting his agenda through, Jaye said. 

Lurie has also focused on cleaning up the streets. This is a huge undertaking that may not see quick success, but it’s one that is smart politically, said both Jaye and Harrington. “It’s a great goal to say we’re no longer going to tolerate open-air criminal activity in San Francisco,” Jaye said.

Said Harrington: “He seems to care. He’s out in the streets. I think that’s important.”

One of Lurie’s first high-profile moves upon taking office was to crack down on drug sales, drug use, and the sale of shoplifted goods in a few high-profile spots in the city, including Sixth Street in SoMa, and at the 16th Street BART plaza. He’s also conducted high-profile sweeps of areas like South Van Ness and Market, which led to mass arrests, but few charges.

In his victory speech, one of the few specifics Lurie offered was a promise that public safety would be his “No. 1 priority” and that he would focus specifically on drug dealing. “We’re gonna get tough,” he said, at the time. In an interview with Mission Local three months into his term, Lurie modified that statement: the city will not “arrest our way out of this problem” and needs to get people “into the help that they need.”

The mayor needs to tread a fine line, Jaye said. Mass arrests of people with substance use disorder are inhumane, he said. And to some extent, the mayor is playing Whac-A-Mole. Cracking down in one place will just shift the nefarious behavior elsewhere, in San Francisco, or across the wider Bay Area, Jaye said. But “the No. 1 job of the mayor is to keep the city safe,” Jaye said. “He should keep whacking.”

The true test of whether Lurie is going to be an effective mayor is the upcoming budget negotiation, both Jaye and Harrington said.

San Francisco faces an $818 million budget shortfall. Lurie will present the Board of Supervisors with his proposed budget on June 1. Supervisors can vote down his proposals up to a point, but will need to adopt a budget by July. 

Lurie has asked all department heads to present him with a 15 percent cut to their department’s budget. The district attorney’s office has already pushed back. Lurie “has to make hard decisions,” Harrington said. “And we’re all going to be unhappy about them.”

San Francisco’s overall budget is about $15 billion, but lots of that is already earmarked for guaranteed services, said Harrington. There are rules requiring a certain amount of funding for things like libraries, parks, fire stations, etc. 

In previous years, San Francisco had other sources of revenue, like pandemic-era funding, to help cover the gaps, he said. But, those funds are gone or have been spent down by prior administrations. Some remaining city reserves cannot be legally released if revenue is rising — and it is, albeit slightly, even as expenditures are outpacing revenue. 

The “easy ways” of fixing a budget deficit, Harrington said, have run out.

Of the money that is available for cuts, about two-thirds of it is employee salaries, Harrington said. Salary freezes, cuts or layoffs will mostly need to be negotiated with unions, he added. 

But Lurie ran for office as a political outsider — unions backed his opponents in the race. He hasn’t done much since to curry union leaders’ favor, Harrington said.

“The biggest mistake he’s made is that he’s been very weak with organized labor,” Jaye added. “To make change in San Francisco, you have to make labor your ally. Otherwise they are going to wait you out, slow walk you, make problems for you.”

The budget battle, Harrington said, is one he would not want to deal with personally. Lurie has to say, “Look, the money’s not there,” Harrington said. “I don’t know that he has the wherewithal to do that, or the guts to do that, but I think that he doesn’t have much of a choice, because this is a big, big number.”

And how long does Lurie have before voters get restless? By the end of 2025, both said. If issues around neighborhood safety or the affordability of housing are not headed in the right direction, patience will wear thin. 

“I don’t think anyone expected him to solve homelessness in 100 days,” Harrington said. “I think by the end of this year, though, if people don’t see more housing, if they don’t see a difference on the streets, they will be very upset.”