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Three Up, Three Down: San Diego Padres

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Three Up, Three Down: San Diego Padres


I tried doing these series previews early in the season before they ended up being too time-consuming and real life got in the way. Anyone who has read my in-depth pieces or listened to my podcast with John Ke knows brevity is not my strong suit. This time around, I borrowed a format from our mutual friend, Bleed Cubbie Blue site manager Al Yellon, to hopefully limit myself while still providing the relevant analysis. Let’s get into it.

Three Up

Old Friends, New Places

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Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

The Padres have a few former Twins, including fan-favorite and two-time batting champ Luis Arraez. I don’t want to rail against a three-time All-Star too much, but this is just your yearly reminder that batting average isn’t important in 2024. Arraez is second in the NL in BA among qualified hitters but has only accumulated 0.5 fWAR, ranking 65th among qualified NL batters and 128th overall in the NL.

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What has Arraez’s value so low? The rest of his profile has regressed to the point the Twins feared when they traded him away two years ago. Defensively, he is limited to DH already at 27-years-old. In his limited time on the field, he ranks last in Outs Above Average and the bottom 10th percentile of arm strength. On the offensive side, there’s no power with a bottom-five .073 ISO and only 19 of his 110 hits going for extra bases. He has a 10th-percentile average exit velocity, 2nd-percentile barrel rate, and 3rd-percentile hard-hit rate. Weirdly, his chase rate is also way up compared to when he was with the Twins, ranking in the 12th percentile there. He doesn’t whiff when he chases leading to countless weak outs early in counts, which is worse than a whiff. Oh also, his 3.4% walk rate is the second worst in baseball, giving him the same OBP as Willi Castro who is hitting .258. Overall, Arraez has a league-average 103 wRC+ while making over $10 million and another hefty raise due in arbitration this summer. It’s not what you want.

The Padres also have 2023 curse-breaking legend Donovan Solano on their bench. Solano has actually out-produced Arraez this season by both fWAR (1.0 vs 0.5) and wRC+ (122 vs 103) despite playing in half the games. The Twins will also see Bomba Squad starter Martín Pérez in the series. Perez has been okay since departing the Twins Cities but has seen made meaningful improvements since arriving in San Diego, nearly doubling his strikeout rate while cutting his walk rate in half. That’s a recipe for success.

New Rotation Pieces

San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies

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Speaking of rotation additions, the Padres also acquired Dylan Cease and Michael King in offseason trades. Cease has taken a meaningful step forward from where he was in 2022 when he finished second in Cy Young voting, striking out more even batters while limiting his walks and hits to career lows. He also threw a no-hitter two weeks ago, something he nearly did against the Twins in 2022 before Arraez broke it up with two outs in the ninth. Minnesota will avoid him in this series, luckily.

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They will have to face Michael King, the crown jewel of the Juan Soto trade. King converted to starting toward the end of 2023 and dazzled in the new role. He was a power sinker/sweeper guy as a reliever but has added a changeup that might be his best pitch. Finally, a quick shout-out to Michael Waldron, a knuckleballer who has quietly been decent this season, which is always fun.

Unexpected Stars

San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies

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The Padres’ surprising success, despite trading away Soto and stars Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Fernando Tatis missing time due to injury, has been thanks to their emerging stars. Veteran Jurickson Profar and rookie Jackson Merrill lead the team in fWAR, despite neither having a clear path to the Opening Day roster a few months ago. Profar has broken out at 31 years old with a 147 wRC+, trailing only MVP contenders Shohei Ohtani, Ketel Marte, and Marcel Ozuna. Merill, meanwhile, never played a game above AA before breaking camp as the team’s centerfielder, a position he had never played prior to Spring Training. The 21-year-old has thrived on instincts while putting up All-Star offense, trailing only Aaron Judge, Byron Buxton, and Jarren Duran in wRC+ among centerfielders.

They’ve also gotten surprising contributions from veterans David Peralta, Kyle Higashioka, and Solano. Each has a wRC+ at least 15% above league average, exactly what this Padres team needed around their stars.

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Three Down

Tatis’ Latest Injury

Los Angeles Dodgers v San Diego Padres

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Fernando Tatis has had an rollercoaster career but has settled in as a rock-solid contributor since moving to right field last season. Tatis isn’t showing the gaudy offensive numbers he did early on, but is still well above average in that department while putting up some of the best defensive metrics in baseball. He’s been out since mid-June with a stress reaction in his right femur, something that could easily turn into a multi-year injury if not given enough time to heal. The Padres have to be careful, and the aforementioned Peralta is filling in admirably in the meantime, but any World Series hopes San Diego carries feature Tatis front and center.

Kim in Question

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San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies

Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

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Ha-Seong Kim has quietly emerged as one of the more valuable players around the league. The Korean product is one of the best defensive shortstops in the game and has improved to be a league-average hitter, a marked step up from his early career. Kim jammed his throwing shoulder diving back to first base yesterday and may end up on the IL. He will almost assuredly miss this series, which is a major hit for San Diego. Though the team is essentially built out of former shortstops, they don’t have a clear replacement on the roster.

The logical candidate would be Xander Bogaerts, a career shortstop before 2024, but he slid over to second because his defense had fallen off a cliff. He also is coming off an extended IL stint with a shoulder injury of his own, and the Padres likely don’t want to risk losing another key cog. Other options include infielder Jake Cronenworth who has played all over the infield but has settled in primarily at first and second base and hasn’t played short in any extended role since 2021. Utility man Tyler Wade is also on the roster, but he is a zero offensively. Regardless of the choice, expect to see a lot more Donovan Solano in the lineup as he will backfill whoever moves over.

Hot, Hot, Hot

San Diego Padres v Colorado Rockies

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This is more of a “down” for the Twins because there’s not much negative to say about this team right now! The Twins are tied for the most wins in baseball since August 1 with 11. The team they’re tied with? The San Diego Padres, who have gone 11-4 since then and 20-6 since the All-Star break. It’s all clicking at the right time for the Dads. Depending on your current feelings on the Guardians and Orioles, this might be the best team the Twins face the rest of the way.

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Another day, another failure of brevity. Listen, I had an Arraez rant locked and loaded and we don’t see the Padres often, so I had a lot to say. Cut me some slack.



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San Diego teen organizes Eid goodie bags for children after Mosque tragedy

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San Diego teen organizes Eid goodie bags for children after Mosque tragedy


SAN DIEGO (FOX 5/KUSI) — As the Muslim community prepares to celebrate Eid al-Adha next month, a San Diego teenager is working to bring comfort and joy to children impacted by the recent tragedy at the Islamic Center of San Diego.

Seventeen-year-old Sarah Abdin spent the past week fundraising, shopping and assembling nearly 100 Eid goodie bags for students at the mosque’s elementary school.

While many teenagers are focused on final exams, Abdin said she spent some nights working until 2 a.m. to make sure every bag was ready in time for the school’s upcoming graduation celebration.

The project was inspired by the recent shooting at the Islamic Center of San Diego, where children were present during the incident. Abdin, who attended the mosque as a child, said hearing about what students experienced motivated her to take action.

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Each bag contains a variety of treats, activities and gifts intended to help children celebrate Eid, one of the most important holidays in Islam.

Abdin said community members quickly rallied behind the effort, helping raise funds and support the project. After days of shopping and preparation, she and her sister spent several hours assembling the bags ahead of delivery.

The goodie bags are expected to be distributed during the elementary school’s graduation festivities in early June.

Abdin said she hopes the gesture serves as a reminder that the children are surrounded by a community that cares about them and stands beside them during difficult times.

The fundraising effort received widespread support, helping cover the cost of the goodie bags and allowing organizers to expand their reach to more students.

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Letters: A selective immigration policy ultimately fails us all

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Letters: A selective immigration policy ultimately fails us all


How interesting that Donald Trump is deporting Brown people who pay taxes and contribute to our economy (though they will never reap any benefits from those taxes) and instead is using our tax money to import and set up South Africans (none of whom are anything but White) who have never contributed to our economy. Could skin color perhaps have something to do with this policy?

— Nita Herpolsheimer, San Diego



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Did California’s assault weapons ban save lives in San Diego mosque attack?

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Did California’s assault weapons ban save lives in San Diego mosque attack?


California’s assault weapons ban may have helped limit the ability of two attackers to take lives at the Islamic Center of San Diego last week, according to a prominent gun control organization.

But the executive director of a San Diego gun rights group said the fact the attack even happened is proof the ban failed.

What the two don’t dispute is that the video from the attackers’ livestream shows one of them using a rifle that appears to comply with California’s strict gun laws. While authorities have not confirmed what models of firearms were used in the attack, representatives of the two organizations identified it as a semi-automatic Ruger Mini-14 rifle.

The alleged suspect’s Ruger Mini-14 rifle is seen in this screenshot from a livestream obtained by KPBS of the attack on the Islamic Center of San Diego on May 18, 2026.

KPBS is not publishing the video, which authorities have not released, the names of the two teenage suspects or their writings, where they wrote they were motivated to conduct the attack by a number of sex and race-related grievances. They wore emblems associated with white supremacists and neo-Nazis and lashed out in their writings against women, Jewish people, Muslims and LGBTQ+ people.

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They wrote they were inspired by the 2019 attack on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, that killed 51 Muslims. In their writings, the suspects said they wanted to replicate the Christchurch attack in San Diego.

The attack in Christchurch prompted New Zealand to change its gun laws.

Semiautomatic rifles sold in California have to meet certain criteria that other states don’t require.

The barrels must be at least 30 inches long and may not have collapsible or folding stocks. They cannot have a pistol grip behind the trigger, nor one attached at the forward part of the rifle.

And they cannot have a magazine that holds more than 10 rounds.

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“From everything I saw from the video, (the rifle) looked like it met those criteria and looked like a very stock firearm that you could purchase at many dealers here in California,” said Steve Lindley, a policy advisor for the Brady Campaign.

Lindley spent almost 30 years in law enforcement, according to his biography. He worked for the National City Police Department and spent eight years leading the Bureau of Firearms at the California Department of Justice.

Lindley said features such as pistol grips make rifles more lethal.

“Over time it makes it easier for the shooter to have the firearm to their shoulder and in their hands,” he said. “Less fatigue, and it lines up a little bit better with your eyesight. The capacity of the magazines and other features on the firearm make it more accurate and easier to use in close quarters.”

The video shows the body cam operator firing the Mini-14 until it appears to jam. He struggles to clear the chamber and appears to remove and reinsert the magazine. He works the bolt, apparently unable to chamber a new round.

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As the video continues, he continues to struggle with the bolt of the rifle before giving up, drawing a handgun and stepping outside.

The attackers never made it beyond the lobby, where about 100 schoolchildren and staff were inside the center. Authorities say they were delayed by the three men killed in the attack: Mansour Kaziha, 78, Nadir Awad, 57, and armed security guard Amin Abdullah.

From left to right, Mansour Kaziha, Amin Abdullah and Nadir Awad.

The Islamic Center of San Diego

Undated photos of (left to right) Mansour Kaziha, Amin Abdullah and Nadir Awad.

“Looking at the reality of this, a good guy with a gun stopped a bad guy with a gun from killing a lot of kids. Full stop,” said Michael Schwartz, the executive director of the San Diego County Gun Owners PAC.

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“The assault weapons ban that California has implemented clearly failed — it didn’t stop these two people,” he said.

Schwartz described the features banned by California as “cosmetic” and that the semi-automatic rifles function the same regardless of their stock, grips or magazine size.

“The idea that … the (high-capacity) magazine ban stopped them from getting a high-capacity magazine … there just isn’t any evidence or proof,” he said.

While high-capacity magazines can’t be bought or sold in California, Schwartz said anyone can travel to the next state over and buy as many as they want.

Although the Mini-14 used in the attack is capable of accepting 30 or 40-round magazines, said Lindley, the shooters appeared to only have a California-compliant 10-round magazine.

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“If you have ten round magazines, you have ten rounds to shoot before you need to change magazines,” he said. “If you have a 30- or 40-round magazine, you can shoot 30 or 40 rounds before you need to reload.”

That’s important, Lindley said, because when shooters stop to reload, it gives victims time to either escape or attempt to subdue the attacker.

Schwartz said that didn’t affect the Islamic center attack.

“If he had a bigger magazine or he had a pistol grip or whatever, it wouldn’t have changed the outcome of this at all,” he said.

Lindley played a part in crafting more than 100 gun bills, according to the Brady Campaign. He said with so many guns in the United States, authorities can’t stop shootings — all they can do is try to limit the damage.

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“We can prevent a lot of victimology by lowering the capacity of the magazines,” he said.



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