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Prospect Report: San Diego Padres 2024 Imminent Big Leaguers

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Prospect Report: San Diego Padres 2024 Imminent Big Leaguers


Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Below is an evaluation of the prospects in the San Diego Padres farm system who readers should consider “imminent big leaguers,” players who might reasonably be expected to play in the majors at some point this year. This includes all prospects on the 40-man roster as well as those who have already established themselves in the upper levels of the minors but aren’t yet rostered. I tend to be more inclusive with pitchers and players at premium defensive positions since their timelines are usually the ones accelerated by injuries and scarcity. Any Top 100 prospects, regardless of their ETA, are also included on this list. Reports, tool grades, and scouting information for all of the prospects below can also be found on The Board.

This is not a top-to-bottom evaluation of the Padres farm system. I like to include what’s happening in minor league and extended spring training in my reports as much as possible, since scouting high concentrations of players in Arizona and Florida allows me to incorporate real-time, first-person information into the org lists. However, this approach has led to some situations where outdated analysis (or no analysis at all) was all that existed for players who had already debuted in the majors. Skimming the imminent big leaguers off the top of a farm system will allow this time-sensitive information to make its way onto the site more quickly, better preparing readers for the upcoming season, helping fantasy players as they draft, and building site literature on relevant prospects to facilitate transaction analysis in the event that trades or injuries foist these players into major league roles. There will still be a full Padres prospect list that includes Robby Snelling and Braden Nett and all of the other prospects in the system who appear to be at least another season away. As such, today’s list includes no ordinal rankings. Readers are instead encouraged to focus on the players’ Future Value (FV) grades.

Let’s revisit what FV means before I offer some specific thoughts on this org. Future Value (FV) is a subjective valuation metric derived from the traditional 20-80 scouting scale (where 50 is average and each integer of 10 away from 50 represents one standard deviation) that uses WAR production to set the scale. For instance, an average regular (meaning the 15th-best guy at a given position, give or take) generally produces about 2 WAR annually, so a 50 FV prospect projects as an everyday player who will generate about that much WAR during each of his pre-free agency big league seasons.

Why not just use projected WAR as the valuation metric then? For one, it creates a false sense of precision. This isn’t a model. While a lot of data goes into my decision-making process, a lot of subjectivity does too, in the form of my own visual evaluations, as well as other information related to the players’ careers and baseball backgrounds. A player can have a strong evaluation (emphasis on the “e”) but might be a great distance from the big leagues, or perhaps is injury prone, or a superlative athlete. Context like that might cause me to augment the player’s valuation (no “e”). Using something more subjective like Future Value allows me to dial up and down how I’m interpreting that context.

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There are also many valuable part-time players who can only generate so much WAR due to their lack of playing time. As such, FV grades below 50 tend to describe a role more than they do a particular WAR output; you can glean the projected roles from the players’ reports. In short, anyone who is a 40+ FV player or above projects as an integral big league role player or better.

Now some Padres thoughts. Take a peek at the RosterResource Depth Chart to see just how many free agents A.J. Preller and co. are tasked with replacing while also cutting payroll in the wake of Peter Seidler’s death. Trading Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to New York helped replenish their pitching staff, though the Friars could still use one proven big league starter, and I think they could stand to upgrade the bottom of their 40-man, too. For instance, 25-year-old lefty Jay Groome is still rookie eligible, but I have him graded below the 35+ FV threshold. He walked 16.7% of opposing hitters last year while his fastball sat just 90-92, and Groome is also out of options. It feels like he’s on the roster bubble. The Soto trade also left them without great in-house options in left and center field. Manny Machado had offseason elbow surgery that might prevent him from playing defense early in the 2024 season, leaving them thin at third base as well.

In addition to the older position player prospects on this list, the Padres have brought in Mason McCoy, Cal Mitchell, Óscar Mercado, and Bryce Johnson on minor league deals at these positions. They at least have a myriad of options in hand right now, many of whom are players one can envision the Padres winning with, though perhaps not winning because of. It would make a ton a sense for Jackson Merrill to play third base or left field during the spring, as his bat feels like the best chance for the Padres to catch a special sort of lightning in a bottle.

The number of potential trade partners that might have 3B/OF/P options to spare will probably be limited to teams mired in true rebuilds. Teams that hope or expect to compete for a playoff spot in 2024 will probably want big leaguers in return, and dealing with them could mean robbing Peter to pay Paul. Teams like the Nationals, Rockies, or White Sox, who are more likely to be happy getting younger prospects back, would seem like better fits.

Padres Imminent Big Leaguers and Top 100 Prospects

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Machado's walk-off lifts Padres to 10-inning comeback victory over Cards

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Machado's walk-off lifts Padres to 10-inning comeback victory over Cards


SAN DIEGO — The Padres earned a split against the Cardinals in dramatic fashion on Sunday afternoon. Nick Castellanos hit a game-tying two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth, and Manny Machado’s sacrifice fly won it in the 10th.
Here’s some instant reaction from the Padres’ wild 3-2 victory



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Padres come back, walk off with win over Cardinals to split series

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Padres come back, walk off with win over Cardinals to split series


It seemed like the same tired story.

Instead, it was the same thriller.

The Padres pushed their offensive lethargy as long as possible without paying for it Sunday, tying the game with two outs in the ninth inning on Nick Castellanos’ two-run homer and then celebrating after Manny Machado’s sacrifice fly in the 10th inning gave them a 3-2 victory over the Cardinals.

“Getting it done,” Machado said.

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That’s it. That is all they are doing.

And at what is essentially the quarter mark of the season, the Padres are 24-16 and tied with the Dodgers atop the National League West.

The shocking component of their having the major leagues’ fifth-best record is that the Padres rank in the bottom three among MLB’s 30 teams in batting average and OPS.

They split with the Cardinals despite having 14 hits, their fewest in a four-game series in franchise history. Their 61 hits over their past 10 games are the fewest in a stretch that long since 2019, and they are 5-5 in those games.

“It sucks; we need to hit; Machado said. “I mean, you know, look, it’s obvious. We’re not hitting. It’s obvious, but we’re getting things done, man.”

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Nick Castellanos #21 of the San Diego Padres watches his two-run home run in the ninth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Petco Park on May 10, 2026 in San Diego, CA. (K.C. Alfred / The San Diego Union-Tribune)

Sunday was the Padres’ 12th victory this season in which the decisive run was scored in the seventh inning or later. That is exactly half their victories.

It was their fourth walk-off victory, their second in extra innings. It was the seventh time that a run scored in their final offensive half-inning decided a victory.

So it is no small thing to proffer that Sunday was possibly their most dramatic triumph. Because it was possibly their most unlikely one.

Not only were they a strike away from defeat, but they began the ninth inning having gotten two hits all day.

The Cardinals took a 2-0 lead in the fourth inning on their first two hits off Walker Buehler — a single by Alec Burleson and a home run by Jordan Walker with two outs. Buehler pitched six innings, allowing just one more hit before Ron Marinaccio worked two scoreless innings.

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But the Padres were unable to make anything of their seven at-bats with runners in scoring position over the first eight innings. They had walked five times but had just Jackson Merrill’s third-inning single and Xander Bogaerts’ fourth-inning double to that point.

“Really good teams find ways to win games when they’re not doing their best,” Gavin Sheets said. “… We’re not clicking on all cylinders by any means. And I don’t think any of us would say that he’s on a roll right now, but we’re getting hits in a timely fashion and it’s someone different every night.”

Almost.

The Padres have game-winning RBIs from 10 different players. They have go-ahead RBIs from 13 of the 14 position players who have been on their roster this season. Sunday was Castellanos’s third game-tying RBI.

His home run, on the ninth pitch of his at-bat against Cardinals closer Riley O’Brien, was something of a clinic by a veteran hitter who is in his first season as a role player.

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Castellenos, who entered the game as a pinch-hitter in the seventh inning and remained in right field, came to the plate with Bogaerts at first base with two outs.

Bogaerts’ single leading off the inning had been followed by two strikeouts, and Castellanos fell behind 0-2 before working the count full and then sending a 99 mph sinker on the inner edge of the plate almost to the ribbon scoreboard fronting the second level of seats beyond left field.

“The first pitch started, and I was probably looking to do what I did,” he said. “And then I ended up getting 0-2 and chasing. After that, just took a deep breath and tried to shorten up as much as possible and just compete. Just find a way on base. And then found myself in a full account and was able to get the job done.”

It was the first home run allowed by O’Brien this season.

Nick Castellanos #21 of the San Diego Padres is dunked by Gavin Sheets #30 after a 3-2 win against the St. Louis Cardinals at Petco Park on May 10, 2026 in San Diego, CA. (K.C. Alfred / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
Nick Castellanos #21 of the San Diego Padres is dunked by Gavin Sheets #30 after a 3-2 win against the St. Louis Cardinals at Petco Park on May 10, 2026 in San Diego, CA. (K.C. Alfred / The San Diego Union-Tribune)

With closer Mason Miller not available after throwing 29 pitches over 1⅓ innings on Saturday, Jeremiah Estrada got the first two outs of the 10th. With runners on first and second, Adrian Morejón entered the game and got an inning-ending pop out on his first pitch.

Gordon Graceffo was on the mound for the Cardinals, and Ramón Laureano was the Padres’ automatic runner in the 10th. The Cardinals intentionally walked Merrill at the start before Fernando Tatis Jr. whittled a 1-2 count into a walk to load the bases.

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The game was over one pitch later, when Machado sent a fastball to right-center field and Laureano slid across the plate well in front of right fielder Jordan Walker’s throw.

It was a somewhat subdued but still enthusiastic celebration along the first-base line, as teammates bounced around Machado.

“It’s hard to win a game like that,” Padres manager Craig Stammen said. “Their pitchers pitched great, and they’re bringing in one of the best closers in the game. And we just stuck with it. It just speaks to how those guys believe in themselves and how they believe in what we’ve got going on as a team.”



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It’s ‘trust, but verify’ for new AI spine surgery system

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It’s ‘trust, but verify’ for new AI spine surgery system


On a recent morning, Dr. Joseph Osorio arrived in the operating room ready to sink six surgical screws into his patient’s spine, and he did not seem remotely nervous that their placement and size had been recommended by artificial intelligence software.

Osorio was the first neurosurgeon on the West Coast to begin using Medtronic’s new “Stealth AXiS” surgical robotic system, conducting a spinal fusion procedure to treat degenerative scoliosis at Jacobs Medical Center in La Jolla by anchoring two small custom-shaped metal rods across three vertebrae in his patient’s lower spine.

The process started with a CT scan, identifying the segment of spine that needed reinforcement. A program analyzed the resulting three-dimensional image, using an AI model trained on information from previous successful surgeries, not just where screws should go, but also the best path for their insertion.

An X-ray is taken of a patient’s spine before a spinal fusion surgery at Jacobs Medical Center at UC San Diego Health in La Jolla on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. (Kristian Carreon / The San Diego Union-Tribune)

Board-certified with thousands of such surgeries in his past, having completed a fellowship at Columbia University after a surgical residency at UC San Francisco, Osorio is well-qualified to make these calls with zero help from technology. So, why bother using an algorithm to plan these crucial, but routine details?

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The utility, he said, is similar to what many are now experiencing when they use AI writing tools. The software can quickly get a person to the neighborhood of what they intend to say.

“You might say, ‘write me a paragraph on this,’ and it’s going to cut down your time, but you might still need to change some words, add a comma, tweak a sentence … that’s essentially what the AI is doing here,” Osorio said.

In this particular case, the AI system’s recommendations for screw length and diameter seemed on point, allowing the army of surgical technicians assisting with the procedure to pull the proper supplies ahead of time. The suggested locations, though, did require minor adjustment.

“It was slight, very slight, I’d say probably, like one or two millimeter adjustments,” Osorio said.

And the AI auto planning feature, he added, is even more useful in situations where a patient’s health insurance company will not pay for a pre-surgical CT scan, meaning that the guiding image must be taken after the patient is already sedated in an operating room on the day of their surgery.

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An X-ray is taken of a patient's spine before a spinal fusion surgery at Jacobs Medical Center at UC San Diego Health in La Jolla on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. (Kristian Carreon / The San Diego Union-Tribune)Dr. Joseph Osorio, a neurosurgeon, uses the Medtronic Stealth Axis Autopilot during a spinal fusion surgery at Jacobs Medical Center at UC San Diego Health in La Jolla on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The machine uses artificial intelligence to help navigate a patient's spine.(Kristian Carreon / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
An X-ray is taken of a patient’s spine before a spinal fusion surgery at Jacobs Medical Center at UC San Diego Health in La Jolla on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. (Kristian Carreon / The San Diego Union-Tribune)

Once a digital surgical plan is created and approved by a qualified surgeon, a surgical robot can use a system of cameras and electromagnetic sensors, registered against each patient’s anatomy with an initial X-ray, to move its arm to each screw location, placing a drilling guide at the exact angle needed to put each anchor in the correct spot. Here, too, AI is at work comparing previously recorded X-rays with real-time sensor data to compensate for any patient movements that may occur.

It is an evolution of Medtronic’s previous “Mazor” robotic spike system, which had already achieved levels of anatomy navigation using sensors and cameras that have reduced the need for X-ray images during surgery. And other medical device companies have launched similar systems, building in AI functions as the entire industry begins to see such augmentation as table stakes to play in a market that has always been as competitive as a high-stakes table in a Las Vegas casino.

Patients may wonder whether this push toward AI guidance is a good thing. After all, this is a technology that has made headlines for its ability to “hallucinate” convincing, but incorrect details.

ECRI, an independent non-profit organization that works to improve patient safety and cost effectiveness in health care, has been watching these systems develop.

In an email, Scott Lucas, ECRI’s vice president of devices, therapeutics and technology, said that the organization does not comment on any individual case or procedure, but has found that AI-enabled systems do have their merits.

“We can say that AI seems to be particularly helpful when it is used to support imaging, planning, navigation and precision in technically demanding procedures such as spine surgery,” Lucas said. “These tools may help surgeons in multiple ways, including tailoring procedures to a patient’s anatomy and improving consistency in implant placement and alignment.”

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An AI-enabled display depicts the position of surgical screws being inserted into a patient's vertebra during a spinal fusion surgery at Jacobs Medical Center at UC San Diego Health in La Jolla on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. (Kristian Carreon / The San Diego Union-Tribune)
An AI-enabled display depicts the position of surgical screws being inserted into a patient’s vertebra during a spinal fusion surgery at Jacobs Medical Center at UC San Diego Health in La Jolla on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. (Kristian Carreon / The San Diego Union-Tribune)

That said, the executive makes it clear that there is no argument for blind loyalty. In these early days, he argues, AI assistance should be less involved with surgeries, and there must be a clear path that allows surgeons to verify the work that their algorithmic assistants perform.

“Used well, AI may strengthen surgical safety; used without appropriate governance, human oversight, training and monitoring, it could introduce new risks, including overreliance, workflow disruption, planning errors or automation bias,” Lucas said.

Such bias, he added, occurs when a surgeon “fails to recognize when the technology is wrong.”

Osorio said that he believes the checks and balances built into the new system he is now using weekly do give him solid checkpoints to make sure that the machine is not hallucinating. While screw placement calculations will automatically calculate for straightforward placements, those with particularly complicated circumstances, such as anatomy that significantly deviates from the norm, will not proceed.

“If things aren’t lining up perfectly in the image, or they’re getting some feedback, it will just refuse to place a screw in that corridor,” Osorio said. “So, it’s only making recommendations in locations that meet the highest standards, and it still requires the surgeon to validate every level.”

AI is now also involved in the calculations used to move the robotic arm to the correct locations for screw insertions and also to make real-time corrections for any patient movement, Medtronic confirmed by email.

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Here too, Osorio said, there are ways to verify that the robot’s calculations are pointing at the correct vertebrae, even though this type of minimally invasive surgery does not expose the target bone before screw insertion.

Surgeons use a bony projection at the back of each vertebra called the spinous process to check the robot’s accuracy, laying a special navigation ring over the landmark to verify that what is showing on the computer’s calculated location screen matches the robot’s arm position.

“A very common statement is ‘trust, but verify’,” Osorio said.

While robotic spine surgery is the latest to begin the process of AI integration, other systems have already made similar moves in knee and hip replacements, urologic procedures, and in some aspects of general surgery.

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