San Diego, CA
Earthquakes Rock SoCal: Could 'Something Bigger' Be Coming?
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA — Several magnitude 4.0 or greater earthquakes have rattled Southern California in the past week — and there’s a chance more could be on the way.
There is a small chance, about 5 percent, that an earthquake will be followed by a larger quake, with the likelihood decreasing over time, according to Gabrielle Tepp, a staff seismologist at California Institute of Technology’s Seismological Laboratory.
“When something like this happens, there is a slightly elevated chance that something bigger could be coming,” Tepp told Patch.
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Southern California has experienced what Tepp called “clusters” of earthquake activity not only this week, but since the start of the year.
“We have been having a lot of magnitude 4s lately since the start of 2024 in Southern California. That’s just a result of the randomness of earthquakes,” Tepp said. “If earthquakes followed a specific pattern, we’d be able to predict them, but we can’t.”
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Earthquakes aren’t entirely random, however.
“They have to happen at fault and when stress builds up, but when exactly they happen is somewhat random,” she explained.
“Because of that, sometimes you’ll go quiet with very few earthquakes,” she added. “Other times you’ll get clusters, like this, with a bunch of them that are unrelated. Other times there will be a more steady rate to them. We just happen to be in one of the clusters, right now, with a lot of activity.”
Since the start of the year, there have been five “significant earthquakes” in California, according to the United States Geological Survey. All of them have happened in Southern California and two of them struck this past week.
The quakes also struck near different faults.
“It’s not confined to just one specific area,” Tepp said.
According to the USGS, earthquakes are considered “significant events” due to a combination of magnitude, the number of “Did You Feel It” responses, and the PAGER (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response) alert level.
A 4.1-magnitude quake hit New Year’s Day near Rancho Palos Verdes in Los Angeles County. Four days later, a 4.2-magnitude quake was recorded near Lytle Creek in the San Gabriel Mountains in San Bernardino County. On Jan. 24, a 4.2-magnitude quake struck near San Bernardino.
This past week, a magnitude 4.6 earthquake hit at 1:47 p.m. Friday, Feb. 9, near Malibu, which was followed by a series of smaller quakes in the area. The quake struck near the Malibu Coast fault and Santa Monica Bay fault, which is an area that is known to be seismically active.
Since record-keeping began in 1932, there have been six magnitude 4 or greater earthquakes within about 6 miles of the quake, according to the Southern California Seismic Network. The largest was a magnitude 5.3 on Feb. 21, 1973.
Three days after the Malibu quake, an earthquake swarm rattled east of San Diego in the El Centro and Imperial areas of Southern California.
“For a normal mainshock tectonic sequence, you have one big earthquake and a bunch of aftershocks that are usually smaller magnitudes,” Tepp said. “When you get a bunch of earthquakes that are all very similar magnitudes, we consider that a swarm because there’s not really a clear mainshock.”
Of the earthquakes, the first and largest was a 4.8-magnitude quake recorded at 12:36 a.m. near El Centro, according to the USGS. A 4.6-magnitude quake struck six minutes later.
The earthquake swarm continued through the morning and into Tuesday. As of 12:35 p.m. Tuesday, the Southern California Seismic Network had recorded 232 “events” in the swarm, with the smallest being a 0.8-magnitude quake.
“The Imperial Valley is known for earthquake swarms,” Tepp said. “These happen pretty regularly in that region, so it’s the type of activity that we’d expect for that region. It’s a swarm-prone area.”
Although the region is known for earthquake activity, swarms are typically linked to the San Andreas fault, which ends near Bombay Beach in the Salton Sea. This swarm is believed to be linked to the Weinert-El Centro fault, a branch of the San Jacinto fault system, which is one of the most active fault zones in Southern California.
“I don’t recall a swarm of aftershocks like this ever occurring on the Weinert,” Tom Rockwell, a San Diego State University geologist, told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “Is it a foreshock to something bigger? No one knows.”
The earthquake swarm was one of the strongest to hit Southern California in years.
Four of the earthquakes between 12:36 and 12:59 a.m. activated the USGS ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System, which detects significant quakes early enough so that alerts can be delivered to residents and automated systems potentially seconds before shaking arrives.
The MyShake early-warning app sent more than 79,000 alerts for the 4.8-magnitude quake and more than 87,000 alerts for the 4.6-magnitude quake, according to Robert-Michael de Groot, a coordinator at ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System for the USGS Earthquake Science Center.
De Groot explained that MyShake and other partner apps send alerts when the estimated magnitude is 4.5 or greater to phones in the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) III or greater zone. The Wireless Emergency Alert sends alerts to WEA-capable devices when the estimated magnitude is 5.0 or greater to phones in the MMI IV or greater zone.
According to the intensity scale, MMI III is “weak” shaking that is felt by people indoors, especially on upper floors of buildings. MMI IV is “light” shaking and felt indoors by many and outdoors by few people.
“We use about one second of data from the earthquake to make a decision about how big it’s going to be,” de Groot told Patch. “With earthquake early warning, it’s got to be fast.”
Following the swarm, another 4.1-magnitude earthquake struck late Tuesday night in Imperial County. The quake was recorded at 11:53 p.m. about 6.2 miles north of Westmorland, which is part of the El Centro Metropolitan Area, according to the USGS.
The quake was considered a “separate event” from the swarm.
“It was far enough away and on a different set of faults,” Tepp explained. “I would consider it something different, but it’s a complicated tectonic area.”
The quake struck near the Westmorland fault. There have been 109 magnitude 4 or greater earthquakes within about 6 miles of the quake since the start of record-keeping, according to the Southern California Seismic Network. The largest was a magnitude 6.2 on Nov. 24, 1987.
De Groot said that earthquake watchers are studying the recent quake activity.
“Whenever these things happen, we watch them very carefully,” de Groot said. “We want to make sure that we watch the trends and compare it to other activity in the past to see if this might lead to something. We’re always thinking about what could happen next.”
Experts agree that it’s not a matter of if the “Big One” is coming but when.
Tepp said there are several faults in Southern California that are “capable of producing damaging earthquakes.
“There’s going to be another damaging earthquake at some point,” she said. “The best thing you can do is be prepared.”
Most of California has at least a 75% chance of a damaging earthquake in the next century, according to a newly released USGS map. A large portion of the state has over a 95% chance of a damaging earthquake.
The latest USGS National Seismic Hazard Model released in January shows where damaging earthquakes are most likely to occur based on seismic studies, historical geologic data, and the latest data-collection technologies. The model updated a previous version released in 2018.

This year marked the 30th anniversary of the destructive 1994 Northridge earthquake that killed at least 57 people, injured thousands and caused billions of dollars in damage in Southern California.
There’s a 60% chance that a magnitude 6.7 quake will hit the Los Angeles area again within 30 years, according to the USGS. There’s a 46% chance of a magnitude 7.0 quake and a 31% probability of a magnitude 7.5.
“We know that it’s going to happen, it’s just hard to put our finger on exactly when,” de Groot said. “Our best attempt though is that they happen about every 30 years — meaning a Northridge-sized earthquake in the Los Angeles area.”
The Northridge quake happened on a previously undiscovered fault. Experts are even more concerned about the San Andreas fault. The fault, which runs more than 800 miles long, has been responsible for some of the state’s largest quakes.
Seismologists have warned the public for years that Southern California is “overdue” for an 8.0-magnitude earthquake courtesy of the state’s longest fault. To put that into perspective, a quake that size is 60 times more powerful and six times longer than the Northridge earthquake.
“When someone says we are overdue, what they are usually saying is that the time since the last major earthquake is greater than that historic recurrence time,” Tepp explained. “It’s an average. So sometimes it will be less and sometimes it will be more.
“We’re past that average now,” she noted. “We’re within the window that we are kind of waiting and expecting something to happen.”
She and de Groot both encouraged residents to be prepared for earthquakes. Create an emergency kit and plan, and also download the MyShake early-warning app, which helped alert residents near the most recent quake swarm.
The creation of the earthquake early warning system has been one of the biggest advancements in the three decades since the Northridge quake.
“We live in earthquake country. Earthquakes are going to continue to happen,” he said. “Now there’s a system in place that detects the earthquake as soon as it reaches the surface, moves that information quickly to where it needs to go, and then gets alerts out to people who need them.”
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San Diego, CA
Machado's walk-off lifts Padres to 10-inning comeback victory over Cards
Here’s some instant reaction from the Padres’ wild 3-2 victory
San Diego, CA
Padres come back, walk off with win over Cardinals to split series
It seemed like the same tired story.
Instead, it was the same thriller.
The Padres pushed their offensive lethargy as long as possible without paying for it Sunday, tying the game with two outs in the ninth inning on Nick Castellanos’ two-run homer and then celebrating after Manny Machado’s sacrifice fly in the 10th inning gave them a 3-2 victory over the Cardinals.
“Getting it done,” Machado said.
That’s it. That is all they are doing.
And at what is essentially the quarter mark of the season, the Padres are 24-16 and tied with the Dodgers atop the National League West.
The shocking component of their having the major leagues’ fifth-best record is that the Padres rank in the bottom three among MLB’s 30 teams in batting average and OPS.
They split with the Cardinals despite having 14 hits, their fewest in a four-game series in franchise history. Their 61 hits over their past 10 games are the fewest in a stretch that long since 2019, and they are 5-5 in those games.
“It sucks; we need to hit; Machado said. “I mean, you know, look, it’s obvious. We’re not hitting. It’s obvious, but we’re getting things done, man.”
Sunday was the Padres’ 12th victory this season in which the decisive run was scored in the seventh inning or later. That is exactly half their victories.
It was their fourth walk-off victory, their second in extra innings. It was the seventh time that a run scored in their final offensive half-inning decided a victory.
So it is no small thing to proffer that Sunday was possibly their most dramatic triumph. Because it was possibly their most unlikely one.
Not only were they a strike away from defeat, but they began the ninth inning having gotten two hits all day.
The Cardinals took a 2-0 lead in the fourth inning on their first two hits off Walker Buehler — a single by Alec Burleson and a home run by Jordan Walker with two outs. Buehler pitched six innings, allowing just one more hit before Ron Marinaccio worked two scoreless innings.
But the Padres were unable to make anything of their seven at-bats with runners in scoring position over the first eight innings. They had walked five times but had just Jackson Merrill’s third-inning single and Xander Bogaerts’ fourth-inning double to that point.
“Really good teams find ways to win games when they’re not doing their best,” Gavin Sheets said. “… We’re not clicking on all cylinders by any means. And I don’t think any of us would say that he’s on a roll right now, but we’re getting hits in a timely fashion and it’s someone different every night.”
Almost.
The Padres have game-winning RBIs from 10 different players. They have go-ahead RBIs from 13 of the 14 position players who have been on their roster this season. Sunday was Castellanos’s third game-tying RBI.
His home run, on the ninth pitch of his at-bat against Cardinals closer Riley O’Brien, was something of a clinic by a veteran hitter who is in his first season as a role player.
Castellenos, who entered the game as a pinch-hitter in the seventh inning and remained in right field, came to the plate with Bogaerts at first base with two outs.
Bogaerts’ single leading off the inning had been followed by two strikeouts, and Castellanos fell behind 0-2 before working the count full and then sending a 99 mph sinker on the inner edge of the plate almost to the ribbon scoreboard fronting the second level of seats beyond left field.
“The first pitch started, and I was probably looking to do what I did,” he said. “And then I ended up getting 0-2 and chasing. After that, just took a deep breath and tried to shorten up as much as possible and just compete. Just find a way on base. And then found myself in a full account and was able to get the job done.”
It was the first home run allowed by O’Brien this season.
With closer Mason Miller not available after throwing 29 pitches over 1⅓ innings on Saturday, Jeremiah Estrada got the first two outs of the 10th. With runners on first and second, Adrian Morejón entered the game and got an inning-ending pop out on his first pitch.
Gordon Graceffo was on the mound for the Cardinals, and Ramón Laureano was the Padres’ automatic runner in the 10th. The Cardinals intentionally walked Merrill at the start before Fernando Tatis Jr. whittled a 1-2 count into a walk to load the bases.
The game was over one pitch later, when Machado sent a fastball to right-center field and Laureano slid across the plate well in front of right fielder Jordan Walker’s throw.
It was a somewhat subdued but still enthusiastic celebration along the first-base line, as teammates bounced around Machado.
“It’s hard to win a game like that,” Padres manager Craig Stammen said. “Their pitchers pitched great, and they’re bringing in one of the best closers in the game. And we just stuck with it. It just speaks to how those guys believe in themselves and how they believe in what we’ve got going on as a team.”
San Diego, CA
It’s ‘trust, but verify’ for new AI spine surgery system
On a recent morning, Dr. Joseph Osorio arrived in the operating room ready to sink six surgical screws into his patient’s spine, and he did not seem remotely nervous that their placement and size had been recommended by artificial intelligence software.
Osorio was the first neurosurgeon on the West Coast to begin using Medtronic’s new “Stealth AXiS” surgical robotic system, conducting a spinal fusion procedure to treat degenerative scoliosis at Jacobs Medical Center in La Jolla by anchoring two small custom-shaped metal rods across three vertebrae in his patient’s lower spine.
The process started with a CT scan, identifying the segment of spine that needed reinforcement. A program analyzed the resulting three-dimensional image, using an AI model trained on information from previous successful surgeries, not just where screws should go, but also the best path for their insertion.
Board-certified with thousands of such surgeries in his past, having completed a fellowship at Columbia University after a surgical residency at UC San Francisco, Osorio is well-qualified to make these calls with zero help from technology. So, why bother using an algorithm to plan these crucial, but routine details?
The utility, he said, is similar to what many are now experiencing when they use AI writing tools. The software can quickly get a person to the neighborhood of what they intend to say.
“You might say, ‘write me a paragraph on this,’ and it’s going to cut down your time, but you might still need to change some words, add a comma, tweak a sentence … that’s essentially what the AI is doing here,” Osorio said.
In this particular case, the AI system’s recommendations for screw length and diameter seemed on point, allowing the army of surgical technicians assisting with the procedure to pull the proper supplies ahead of time. The suggested locations, though, did require minor adjustment.
“It was slight, very slight, I’d say probably, like one or two millimeter adjustments,” Osorio said.
And the AI auto planning feature, he added, is even more useful in situations where a patient’s health insurance company will not pay for a pre-surgical CT scan, meaning that the guiding image must be taken after the patient is already sedated in an operating room on the day of their surgery.

Once a digital surgical plan is created and approved by a qualified surgeon, a surgical robot can use a system of cameras and electromagnetic sensors, registered against each patient’s anatomy with an initial X-ray, to move its arm to each screw location, placing a drilling guide at the exact angle needed to put each anchor in the correct spot. Here, too, AI is at work comparing previously recorded X-rays with real-time sensor data to compensate for any patient movements that may occur.
It is an evolution of Medtronic’s previous “Mazor” robotic spike system, which had already achieved levels of anatomy navigation using sensors and cameras that have reduced the need for X-ray images during surgery. And other medical device companies have launched similar systems, building in AI functions as the entire industry begins to see such augmentation as table stakes to play in a market that has always been as competitive as a high-stakes table in a Las Vegas casino.
Patients may wonder whether this push toward AI guidance is a good thing. After all, this is a technology that has made headlines for its ability to “hallucinate” convincing, but incorrect details.
ECRI, an independent non-profit organization that works to improve patient safety and cost effectiveness in health care, has been watching these systems develop.
In an email, Scott Lucas, ECRI’s vice president of devices, therapeutics and technology, said that the organization does not comment on any individual case or procedure, but has found that AI-enabled systems do have their merits.
“We can say that AI seems to be particularly helpful when it is used to support imaging, planning, navigation and precision in technically demanding procedures such as spine surgery,” Lucas said. “These tools may help surgeons in multiple ways, including tailoring procedures to a patient’s anatomy and improving consistency in implant placement and alignment.”

That said, the executive makes it clear that there is no argument for blind loyalty. In these early days, he argues, AI assistance should be less involved with surgeries, and there must be a clear path that allows surgeons to verify the work that their algorithmic assistants perform.
“Used well, AI may strengthen surgical safety; used without appropriate governance, human oversight, training and monitoring, it could introduce new risks, including overreliance, workflow disruption, planning errors or automation bias,” Lucas said.
Such bias, he added, occurs when a surgeon “fails to recognize when the technology is wrong.”
Osorio said that he believes the checks and balances built into the new system he is now using weekly do give him solid checkpoints to make sure that the machine is not hallucinating. While screw placement calculations will automatically calculate for straightforward placements, those with particularly complicated circumstances, such as anatomy that significantly deviates from the norm, will not proceed.
“If things aren’t lining up perfectly in the image, or they’re getting some feedback, it will just refuse to place a screw in that corridor,” Osorio said. “So, it’s only making recommendations in locations that meet the highest standards, and it still requires the surgeon to validate every level.”
AI is now also involved in the calculations used to move the robotic arm to the correct locations for screw insertions and also to make real-time corrections for any patient movement, Medtronic confirmed by email.
Here too, Osorio said, there are ways to verify that the robot’s calculations are pointing at the correct vertebrae, even though this type of minimally invasive surgery does not expose the target bone before screw insertion.
Surgeons use a bony projection at the back of each vertebra called the spinous process to check the robot’s accuracy, laying a special navigation ring over the landmark to verify that what is showing on the computer’s calculated location screen matches the robot’s arm position.
“A very common statement is ‘trust, but verify’,” Osorio said.
While robotic spine surgery is the latest to begin the process of AI integration, other systems have already made similar moves in knee and hip replacements, urologic procedures, and in some aspects of general surgery.
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