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Political handicapper shifts Montana Senate to ‘leans Republican’ as Tester falls behind

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Political handicapper shifts Montana Senate to ‘leans Republican’ as Tester falls behind

A top political handicapper has changed its prediction for the November Senate election in Montana to show an advantage for Republicans as Democratic Sen. Jon Tester has begun to slip in polling. 

The battle between Tester and Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, was shifted from a “toss up” to “leans Republican” by Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics on Friday, with less than nine weeks until the election. 

The rating change followed the Thursday release of a new AARP poll showing Sheehy with a six-point 51%-45% advantage over Tester in a two-way race. In an expanded field, Sheehy still defeated Tester 49%-41%. 

SENATE GOP BRACING FOR LAST-MINUTE LEADER BIDS — POTENTIALLY BY KEY TRUMP ALLY

Sheehy is now favored to win the Montana Senate race against incumbent Tester.  (Reuters)

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“Beyond the polling, history and recent trends are just not on Tester’s side, as we have mentioned previously,” wrote managing editor Kyle Kondik. “He is one of a relatively small number of partisan outliers in either chamber of Congress, holding a Senate seat that the other party won by 16 points in the most recent presidential election.”

“Perhaps ticket-splitting returns in force this year — if it did, Tester could still survive. But the longer-term trend is clearly toward less ticket-splitting,” he said. 

SENATE GOP CAMPAIGN CHAIR ‘CONCERNED’ OVER FUNDRAISING DISPARITY BUT PREDICTS WHO WILL WIN MAJORITY

Tester is seeking re-election for the third time.  (Samuel Corum)

Campaigns for Tester and Sheehy did not immediately provide comment to Fox News Digital. 

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Montanans first elected Tester to the Senate in 2006, and he’s won re-election twice, despite the state traditionally voting Republican. 

The Democratic senator’s re-election bid in 2018 did not coincide with a presidential election, freeing him from concerns that the Democrat presidential nominee would influence his race. But now, Vice President Kamala Harris will be at the top of the Democratic ticket, while former President Trump, who won Montana twice in 2016 and 2020, will lead the Republican ticket in the state. 

LINDSEY GRAHAM PUTS AMAZON ‘ON NOTICE’ OVER ALEXA’S POTENTIAL ELECTION INTERFERENCE

Tester was involved in recruiting Harris to run for senate. (Reuters)

Tester has held off endorsing Harris and did not attend the Democratic National Convention last month. Despite appearing to distance himself from Harris and his party, the strategy’s effectiveness is unclear, particularly as reports have indicated that Tester, who was leading the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) at the time, was personally responsible for recruiting Harris for the Senate in 2015. 

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DEMS LOSE GROUND TO GOP CONTENDERS IN PIVOTAL SENATE RACES AS VOTERS LOCK IN: POLL

Sheehy is beating Tester in the latest poll. (Reuter/Mike Segar)

In addition, the Montana Democrat offered a ringing endorsement of fellow senator Harris when she was chosen as President Biden’s running mate in 2020. He wrote on X, “My friend @KamalaHarris is a proven fighter and an excellent pick for Vice President. As VP, I’m confident she will continue to fight for working families across this country. Looking forward to supporting her and @JoeBiden in November.” 

More recently, Tester claimed, “I’m not going to endorse for the presidential – and I will tell you why.” 

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“Two reasons: No. 1, I’m focused on my race. And No. 2, folks have wanted to nationalize this race, and this isn’t about national politics. This is about Montana,” he said, justifying his decision not to offer his seal of approval to Harris. 

Fox News Digital’s Aubrie Spady contributed to this report. 

Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.



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West

Oregon Dems block effort to alert ICE before illegal immigrant murderers are released

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Oregon Dems block effort to alert ICE before illegal immigrant murderers are released

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Oregon Senate Democrats unanimously voted to kill an effort to require that federal authorities be notified when an illegal immigrant convicted of a violent felony is about to be released from prison, leading the chamber’s top Republican to say the majority is choosing ideology over common sense.

In Oregon’s legislature, the minority caucus is permitted to file an alternative “minority report” to a majority party-led bill, which would then replace the majority’s legislation before it heads to the governor as a “last-ditch” effort to amend or stop a proposal, according to a source familiar with Salem’s processes.

This particular minority report would have directed state officials to notify federal authorities when an illegal immigrant convicted of a violent felony, such as murder, was about to be released. That would give ICE an opportunity to transfer the person to its custody without the kind of expansive resource deployment seen in some uncooperative blue cities.

The Oregon State Senate voted down the minority report for Senate Bill 1594, 18-12, along party lines, with one lawmaker excused, as Republicans warned of the tally’s public safety consequences.

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ICE agents deploy measures in Portland, Ore., in February 2026. (Sean Bascom/Getty Images)

The original and active SB 1594 would require Oregon’s Justice Department to consult with the state Office of Immigration and Refugee Advancement on updated “model policies” at immigration facilities.

State Sen. Mark Meek, D-Oregon City, who is considered a moderate, defended his vote on the floor in Salem by saying that ICE should instead “sit outside” state prisons because recapturing subjects would be like “fishing in a pond; in a barrel.”

“If the federal government wants to be serious about taking care of that business, then that’s the place you should be,” Meek said. 

Critics of that view said it would run counter to the left’s tendency to protest broad ICE operations in certain localities.

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DEM GOVERNOR’S ‘DANGEROUS’ ANTI-ICE LAW IGNITES BACKLASH AFTER ALLEGED BOX CUTTER ATTACK BY ILLEGAL ALIEN

Oregon’s corrections department previously tracked the immigration status of those convicted of felonies but has not run a check since 2022, after a 2021 bill restricted the tracking of whether an inmate has an ICE detainer, according to a source familiar with the matter.

“The vote runs contrary to the clear will of Oregonians and Americans across party lines, who overwhelmingly support the removal of illegal immigrants convicted of violent or serious crimes across multiple reputable polls,” the minority caucus said in a statement on the minority report’s failure.

State Senate Minority Leader Bruce Starr, R-Dundee, called the bill “as common sense as common sense gets.”

“Do we want violent felons who have no legal right to be present in Oregon to remain here, or should there at least be an opportunity for federal authorities to take custody?”

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“The effect of voting ‘no’ today is to affirm that a person who is here illegally and commits a felony in Oregon should remain here as the felon is released from prison,” added state Sen. Mike McLane, R-Powell Butte.

Fox News Digital reached out to Oregon Senate President Robert Wagner, D-Lake Oswego, and Senate Majority Leader Kayse Jama, D-East Portland, for comment.

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Anti-ICE law set to take effect in Maine as governor faces increased criticism for allowing it amid Senate run

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Yes, an $8 Burger Exists in Downtown San Francisco

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Yes, an  Burger Exists in Downtown San Francisco


Sometimes life requires an easy hang, without the need for reservations and dressing up, and preferably with food that’s easy to rally folks behind. The newish Hamburguesa Bar is just such a place, opening in December 2025 and serving a tight food menu of smash and tavern burgers (made with beef ground in-house), along with hand-cut duck fat fries, poutine, and Caesar salad. The best part? Nothing here costs more than $20. Seriously, this spot has so much going for it, including solid cocktails and boozy shakes. It’s become a homing beacon for post-work hangs, judging by a recent weekday crowd.

Hamburguesa Bar’s drinks are the epitome of unfussy: Cocktail standards, four beers on tap, two choices of wine (red or white), boozy and non-boozy shakes, plus 21 beers by the can or bottle. Standards on the cocktail menu are just that, a list of drinks you’ve heard before — such as an Old Fashioned, daiquiri, gin or vodka martini, or Harvey Wallbanger — with no special tinctures or fat-washed liquors to speak of (that we know of, at least). I’m typically split on whether boozy shakes are ever worth it, but the Fruity Pebbles option ($14) makes a convincing case, mixed with a just-right amount of vodka and some cereal bits. (I’ll leave the more adventurous Cinnamon Toast shake made with Fireball to others with more positive experiences with that liquor.)

Downtown and SoMa has a reputation for restaurants closing early, but Hamburguesa Bar keeps later hours, closing at midnight from Monday through Saturday (closed Sundays). It’s also open for lunch at noon during those days, with the exception of Saturdays when it opens at 5 p.m.



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Denver, CO

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