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Pacific Northwest could decide which party controls the House

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Pacific Northwest could decide which party controls the House

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Washington and Oregon voters find themselves in an unusual position in the deeply blue states: they could play a pivotal role in determining Republican control of the House, placing these traditionally predictable states under the spotlight.  

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As usual, voter turnout will be the deciding factor. But it’s low Democratic enthusiasm, partially driven by the unpopularity of Vice President Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket, and backlash against Democratic support of Israel could potentially swing two seats to Republicans and help the party hold onto a third in these competitive districts. 

Another upset in OR-5? 

Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer’s reelection campaign in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District is one of the most closely watched races this cycle, thanks to the district’s unique political landscape.  

FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: HARRIS LOSES HER LEAD AND A NEW ELECTORATE EMERGES

In 2022, Chavez-DeRemer won the seat by just two points over her far-left challenger, flipping it from blue to red, thanks to her appeal to rural voters in places like Marion and Linn counties, even as she lost in more liberal areas like Clackamas and Multnomah counties. The district remains a toss-up, with more than 40% of voters identifying as independents or unaffiliated. 

Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer is in a close congressional race with Democrat Janelle Bynum, a state representative. FILE: Chavez-DeRemer, a Republican from Oregon, speaks during a news conference in Washington, DC, on Wednesday, Jan. 25, 2023. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

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Chavez-DeRemer has focused on local issues like crime, inflation and homelessness, positioning herself as a pragmatic, bipartisan voice. But the challenge this time is steeper. Democrat Janelle Bynum, a state representative, has significant name recognition and support from key Democratic leaders who see this seat as critical for their path to regaining control of the House.  

Plus, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has spent big on attack ads to brand Chavez-DeRemer as a partisan, MAGA extremist. They’re even funding activists from San Francisco to doorbell for Bynum. 

Bynum has historically performed well among independents when running for the state legislature. Chavez-DeRemer’s strong fundraising advantage might allow her to out-communicate Bynum, but she’s navigating a district that is trending more purple, and perhaps even blue, as the national political climate continues to polarize voters.  

But the district is shifting demographically. As younger, more liberal voters move into Clackamas County, it is becoming harder for Republicans to maintain their foothold in a district that includes part of far-left Portland.  

Is the second time a charm for Joe Kent? 

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Republican Joe Kent is again challenging Democrat incumbent Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, a rematch that is shaping up to be one of the most competitive House races of 2024. The district, which includes Vancouver, Battle Ground, and Kelso, has a history of supporting Republicans, but Gluesenkamp Perez flipped the seat in 2022, defeating Kent by less than 1% of the vote.  

Kent, a former Green Beret, Gold Star husband and Trump-endorsed candidate, was hindered by Republican infighting during that race after defeating moderate incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler in the primary, and, at the time, former President Donald Trump was a drag on Republicans statewide. 

This time around, Kent has refined his campaign strategy, focusing less on controversial issues like election integrity and abortion, and more on economic concerns, the fentanyl crisis, immigration, and local infrastructure needs like replacing the aging I-5 bridge. He has also learned from previous mistakes, emphasizing early voting and outreach to a broader voter base. 

Rep.-elect Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., reacts after drawing her number in the House new member room lottery in the Cannon House Office Building on Friday, December 2, 2022. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Gluesenkamp Perez, for her part, is running as a moderate, presenting herself as willing to buck her party for the good of the district. She has taken high-profile votes against President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan and supported more bipartisan issues like infrastructure and agricultural policies that benefit rural communities.  

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But Kent argues that the incumbent is far more aligned with the Biden administration than her voting record suggests. He points to her support for transgender females to share locker rooms and sports leagues with biological girls and to her vote against impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.  

In turn, Glusenkamp Perez claims Kent is an extremist who will support a nationwide abortion ban (a position Kent says he doesn’t hold). Both candidates are locked in a dead heat according to recent polls, with voters split nearly evenly. 

Is an upset coming in WA-08? 

There’s always a surprise House result or two: Former New York Republican Rep. George Santos in 2022, Florida Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in 2020, and New York Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in 2018. Could the next sleeper race be in Washington? 

On paper, Democrat Rep. Kim Schrier is a safe bet for reelection in Washington’s 8th Congressional District, but beneath the surface, the race against Republican Carmen Goers may be heating up.  

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Schrier, a pediatrician, is running for her fourth term in a district that spans parts of King, Pierce and Snohomish counties and extends into more rural areas like Ellensburg and Wenatchee. The very large district’s political makeup has become more diverse, with urban and suburban voters balancing out the more conservative rural areas.  

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Goers, a commercial banker, positioned herself as a fresh face for the district. Her campaign is focusing on crime and inflation, two issues she says hit everyone in the district hard. She also criticized Schrier’s voting record, painting her as a Seattle-style progressive who supports a natural gas energy ban and opposes efforts to check citizenship status of voters.  

Janelle Bynum is a Democrat running for Congress in Oregon against Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer. (Janelle Bynum for Congress)

In return, Schrier has all but ignored Goers and hasn’t run a very active re-election campaign, raising millions less than she did in 2022. 

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Schrier is acting like she has this in the bag. But working against her are four voter-backed initiatives, backlash against Democrat support for Israel and apathy around Harris. 

Washington voters put four issues on the November ballot, all repealing major Democratic legislative wins. They would end the capital gains tax, Climate Commitment Act (which added roughly $0.50 per gallon of gas), a government-run long-term care insurance mandate, and the first steps to banning natural gas in the state. These are expected to drive up voter participation. 

Bynum has historically performed well among independents when running for the state legislature. Chavez-DeRemer’s strong fundraising advantage might allow her to out-communicate Bynum, but she’s navigating a district that is trending more purple, and perhaps even blue, as the national political climate continues to polarize voters.  

Schrier, a supporter of Israel, also faced a primary challenge by Imraan Siddiqi, president of the Washington Chapter of the Council on Islamic-American Relations (CAIR). Though he picked up just a little over 3% of the vote, Scrier barely made it to 50%. The district has both a large Muslim population and politically active younger voters, thanks to Central Washington University. Both groups may snub Schrier (or Harris) because of anger over support for Israel. 

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In the primary, Goers outperformed in five of the district’s six counties and came close to 40% in King County, that magic number Republicans generally need to overcome the Democrats voter advantage. It won’t be easy by any stretch, but apathy towards Harris, and more enthusiasm in the rural areas for Trump, could give Goers the boost she needs to flip the district against an opponent who is barely running a re-election campaign.

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Montana

The Record is Clear: The Wilderness Society, Greater Yellowstone Coalition, and Montana Wilderness Association have Consistently Undermined the Roadless Rule

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The Record is Clear: The Wilderness Society, Greater Yellowstone Coalition, and Montana Wilderness Association have Consistently Undermined the Roadless Rule


Beartooth Range, Montana. Photo: Jeffrey St. Clair.

The Wilderness Society, the Greater Yellowstone Coalition, and the Montana Wilderness Association, now rebranded “Wild Montana,” all claim they support the Roadless Rule and have been asking people for donations to oppose efforts to repeal it. But a review of the record shows that these “conservation” groups have supported opening 1,585,000 acres or Roadless and Wilderness Study Areas to logging and road building since the roadless rule went into effect in 2001.

Tracy Stone-Manning, now the President of The Wilderness Society, has been widely quoted as supporting the Roadless Rule. But while working as a top environmental advisor for former Montana Senator Jon Tester, she strongly supported his 2009 Forest Jobs and Recreation Act. The Montana Wilderness Association, now doing business as Wild Montana, was also one of the main cheerleaders for Tester’s bill

Although the bill never passed, it would have opened one million acres of roadless lands in the Beaverhead-Deerlodge National Forest in southwest Montana and mandated logging 10,000 acres per year for 10 years in the Beaverhead and Kootenai National Forests. The Kootenai contains the smallest, most threatened grizzly population in the world in the Cabinet-Yaak. Since most grizzly bears are killed within 1/3 of a mile of a road, more logging means more logging roads would be bulldozed into grizzly habitat, resulting in more dead grizzly bears. The measure was so extreme even the Forest Service opposed it.

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The groups also strongly supported former Montana Senator Max Baucus’ Rocky Mountain Front Heritage Act, passed as a rider on the 2014 defense spending bill. The measure opened 208,000 acres of roadless lands to logging and road-building and guaranteed grazing in perpetuity with no environmental analysis or public review. The pitiful 67,000 acres of wilderness tack-ons also required the sacrifice of four Wilderness Study Areas in Eastern Montana, opening 29,000 acres to oil and gas exploration and development.

Then came Tester’s 2017 Blackfoot Clearwater Stewardship Act that carved up 50,000 acres of an Inventoried Roadless Areas contiguous to the Scapegoat and Bob Marshall Wilderness Areas. The measure also allowed loggers to decide where to build roads and designated 5,000 acres as a play area for snowmobiles and mountain bikes.

The bill didn’t even make it out of committee, but now these same groups have renamed it “A River Runs Through It Act” — although there is no sponsor and no “act.” In addition to the roadless lands Tester’s bill would have destroyed, it turns over management of 70,000 acres in grizzly, lynx and wolverine habitat in the Ogden Mountain Roadless Area northwest of Lincoln Montana to the timber industry. It also converts 130,000 acres of Inventoried Roadless Areas into play areas for motorized recreation and mountain bikers.

The clearcutting, bulldozing new logging roads, and motorized recreation in roadless areas will send tons of sediment into the Blackfoot River which has been designated critical habitat for bull trout, a threatened species. It should be called “A Clearcut Runs Through It Act.”

Finally, all three groups support the Greater Yellowstone Conservation And Recreation proposal. There is no sponsor and no bill, but the proposal opens much of the Lee Metcalf Wilderness Study Area and other Inventoried Roadless Areas to motorized recreation, logging and road building. While adding only 102,000 acres as wilderness — less than half of the 250,000 acres that qualify for wilderness designation — it also significantly reduces the 155,000 acre Hyalite-Porcupine-Buffalo Horn Wilderness Study Area by 53,000 acres.

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Don’t fall for the con. The record is clear: these groups have supported reducing, not protecting Inventoried Roadless Areas in the past and are doing so now.

Please consider helping us get the only bill before Congress that would designate all 23 million acres of roadless in the Northern Rockies designated as wilderness, the Northern Rockies Ecosystem Protection Act.  Please also consider donating to Counterpunch to help them continue exposing hypocrites.



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Nevada

Nevada Youth Sports estimates $250K in damage after Fourth of July firework fire

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Nevada Youth Sports estimates 0K in damage after Fourth of July firework fire


Nevada Youth Sports is working to keep thousands of young athletes on the field after a fire believed to have been sparked by illegal fireworks caused nearly a quarter of a million dollars in damage to its facility.

The fire broke out late on the night of July 4. Jane Ramos, chief administrative officer for Nevada Youth Sports, said she received a call from the organization’s landlord telling her there had been a fire at the building.

“We got a call from our landlord saying I needed to come out here right away because there had been a fire,” Ramos said. “We didn’t really understand the scope of what had happened until we could hardly open the door because of the fumes, the smoke, and the smell.”

According to Ramos, firefighters responded shortly before midnight after flames were reported on the roof of the building. In the days since, the organization says it has learned the fire is believed to have started when embers from illegal fireworks landed on the roof.

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“It’s something that was preventable if it truly was illegal fireworks,” Ramos said.

Early damage assessments estimate nearly $250,000 in structural, electrical and water damage. Ramos said the organization is still working to understand the full financial impact.

“We’re trying to assess where we are financially in all of this,” she said. “It’s really a question mark.”

The damage has forced Nevada Youth Sports to temporarily close its facility, affecting the thousands of athletes and families who rely on the organization for leagues, clinics and training programs.

Nevada Youth Sports serves more than 14,000 athletes and families across the Las Vegas Valley each year. Ramos said the organization’s immediate priority is finding alternate locations so programs can continue with as little disruption as possible.

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“We’re definitely allocating our resources toward those efforts,” Ramos said. “Whatever the cost is to continue programming outside of this building, that’s where we’re focusing our efforts right now.”

While investigators continue looking into the cause of the fire, Ramos said the organization hopes whoever is responsible will be held accountable. She said neighboring businesses have provided surveillance video that could help determine exactly what happened.

“I’m hopeful that we can point some accountability somewhere,” Ramos said. “Our commercial neighbors have been very kind to offer their camera footage, so we’re still collecting all of that information before we pursue anything further.”

Despite the damage, Ramos said the organization’s commitment to local families remains unchanged.

“We’ll continue to be steadfast and patient,” she said. “Our mission is being a partner to our athletes and families. We’re here for a bigger purpose than just this building, and we’ll see it through.”

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Nevada Youth Sports expects to have a better understanding of the repair timeline by the end of the week. In the meantime, leaders say they’re grateful for the community support they’ve already received as they work to restore operations.



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New Mexico

Storm chances continue all week for parts of New Mexico

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Storm chances continue all week for parts of New Mexico


Grant’s Monday Night Forecast

Monsoon storms will return to parts of New Mexico every day this week, while hotter temperatures move in later in the week.

Thunderstorms developed across the mountains of New Mexico Monday afternoon. These storms slowly drifted south into the evening. Almost all of these showers and storms have ended now tonight. Another round of afternoon thunderstorms is expected Tuesday, developing first over the mountains before spreading into nearby valleys and lower elevations again. However, some storms around the Four Corners will be on the drier side, increasing the threat for lightning caused wildfires with little rainfall.

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The monsoon high that has been bringing thunderstorms early this week will shift well west of New Mexico on Wednesday. This will bring hotter and slightly drier weather across the state. Even so, afternoon thunderstorms will still develop, especially over the mountains and across northeast New Mexico. Drier air will limit storm coverage Thursday and Friday across central, northern, and western New Mexico, while southern and eastern parts of the state continue to see the best chance for afternoon storms. Hotter weather will also return later this week, with triple-digit heat expanding to more locations, including the Albuquerque metro area Thursday and Friday.

The heat will continue into the weekend as the monsoon high strengthens and shifts back toward Utah and Colorado. That pattern will also bring higher monsoon moisture into New Mexico, bringing increasing chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms statewide Saturday and Sunday.



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