Pac-12 bowl projections: Oregon to the CFP, Utah to the Alamo, Arizona jumps to Las Vegas and USC fades

Helpful reminders on the postseason selection process before we plunge into the latest Pac-12 bowl forecast:

— The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will host the College Football Playoff semifinals, leaving the Pac-12 champion to participate in the Fiesta, Peach or Cotton bowls unless it qualifies for the CFP.

— The Pac-12 is contractually tied to seven games this season: the New Year’s Six, Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun, LA and Independence bowls. If there are more eligible teams than available spots, the conference will attempt to secure invitations to other bowls with vacancies.

In Week 10, Arizona became the seventh by winning its sixth.

The Wildcats thumped UCLA on Saturday for their sixth victory, giving the Pac-12 seven bowl-eligible teams — enough to meet its contractual obligations.

Following the 27-10 win, fans stormed the field to celebrate Arizona’s first postseason berth in six years.

It was the longest bowl drought in the conference — so long, in fact, that the game the Wildcats participated in at the end of the 2017 season no longer exists.

Here’s a look at each team’s most recent bowl appearance, by year:

2022
Oregon (Holiday Bowl)
Oregon State (Las Vegas Bowl)
UCLA (Sun Bowl)
USC (Cotton Bowl)
Utah (Rose Bowl)
Washington (Alamo Bowl)
Washington State (LA Bowl)

2021
Arizona State (Las Vegas Bowl)

2020
Colorado (Alamo Bowl)

2019
Cal (Redbox Bowl)

2018
Stanford (Sun Bowl)

2017
Arizona (Foster Farms Bowl)

With the Wildcats securing a spot this season, Stanford now owns the longest bowl drought.

However, a caveat is required: In 2020, the Cardinal posted a winning record (4-2) but declined a bowl berth because of COVID.

The longest stretch of consecutive losing seasons now belongs to Cal, which last won at least six games in 2019. That streak will continue unless the Bears sweep their three remaining games.

To our latest postseason projections …

College Football Playoff/Sugar Bowl

Team: Oregon (8-1)
Home games (two): USC, Oregon State
Road games (one): Arizona State
Comment: Oregon’s place atop the Hotline’s weekly power ratings has left many perplexed, but the calculation is really quite simple: In our opinion, and having watched 90 percent of the snaps for both teams this season, the Ducks are better than UW and will beat the Huskies on a neutral field in the Pac-12 championship game. And this year, a one-loss Pac-12 champ is absolutely getting into the CFP.

New Year’s Six/Fiesta Bowl

Team: Washington (9-0)
Home games remaining (two): Utah, Washington State
Road games remaining (one): Oregon State
Comment: Our projection for the top spot isn’t a criticism of Washington’s broader trajectory. The Huskies are at least one year ahead of schedule with their rebuild under Kalen DeBoer and started from a much lesser place in 2022 than did the Ducks.

Alamo Bowl

Team: Utah (7-2)
Home games (one): Colorado
Road games (two): Washington, Arizona
Comment: With USC taking on a third loss, and headed for more, it increasingly appears that the Arizona-Utah winner will be the Alamo Bowl participant. Our current lean in the head-to-head matchup is Utah but, admittedly, it’s entering coin toss territory.

Las Vegas Bowl

Team: Arizona (6-3)
Home games (one): Utah
Road games (two): Colorado, Arizona State
Comment: Facts: 1) The Arizona basketball team plays Florida Atlantic in Las Vegas on Dec. 23 at 12 p.m.; 2) The Las Vegas Bowl is Dec. 23 at 4:30 p.m. 3) Obviously!

Holiday Bowl

Team: USC (7-3)
Home games (one): UCLA
Road games (one): Oregon
Comment: The Hotline disagreed strongly with the notion that Caleb Williams would shut it down following USC’s loss to Utah (so he could stay healthy for the NFL Draft), and we still believe Williams will play out the regular season. But any bowl would want to know his status before making a decision on the Trojans.

Sun Bowl

Team: Oregon State (7-2)
Home games (two): Stanford, Washington
Road games (one): Oregon
Comment: The Beavers have everything in front of them, including a major bowl berth. But if things go slightly sideways and they slide to El Paso, they would be arguably the best Pac-12 team to ever participate in the Sun Bowl.

LA Bowl

Team: UCLA (6-3)
Home games (two): Arizona State, Cal
Road games (one): USC
Comment: There cannot be many instances in college football history of a team’s bowl game being closer to campus than its home games.

Non-qualifier

Team: Colorado (4-5)
Home games (one): Arizona
Road games (two): Washington State, Utah
Comment: Colorado’s downturn looks worse than it actually is because the early-season hype got so far ahead of reality. Anyone with a working knowledge of CU’s personnel on the lines of scrimmage knew the Buffs would struggle to secure six wins given the level of competition.

Non-qualifier

Team: Cal (3-6)
Home games (one): Washington State
Road games (two): Stanford, UCLA
Comment: The Bears very well could handle the Cougars and Cardinal and head to Pasadena — for their final scheduled game against UCLA — needing a victory to become bowl-eligible. Maybe the UC regents would insist the Bruins roll over as part of the Berkeley tax.

Non-qualifier

Team: Stanford (3-6)
Home games (two): Cal, Notre Dame
Road games (one): Oregon State
Comment: If we’re judging Pac-12 head coaches based on what they have done this season with the personnel available, Troy Taylor is clearly in the top half.

Non-qualifier

Team: Washington State (4-5)
Home games (one): Colorado
Road games (two): Cal, Washington
Comment: We stood by WSU for weeks as the situation deteriorated. Not anymore. The Hotline is hopping off the train and predicting the Cougars are home for the holidays following an all-time collapse.

Ineligible

Team: Arizona State (2-7)
Home games (two): Oregon, Arizona
Road games (one): UCLA
Comment: Each season turns on a handful of plays. For the Sun Devils, that handful is the difference between 2-7 and 5-4. They lost to both Colorado and Cal by three points and to UW by a touchdown.

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