After the Bears stumbled by means of the softer a part of the schedule, it turned so much tougher to remain optimistic for the rest of the season: high groups within the Pac-12 which all current tough stylistic matchups for Cal (Oregon, USC, UCLA), even when Cal was firing on all cylinders (image a well-maintained Toyota Tercel). As a substitute of presenting a workforce’s strengths and weaknesses, I now really feel like I’m simply documenting the other ways the opponents will beat Cal. Sigh.

Up first: Oregon. Dan Lanning might have been the defensive coordinator for certainly one of school soccer’s all-time nice defenses (2021 Georgia), nevertheless it’s the Oregon offense that’s turning heads. They presently lead the Pac-12 in each yards per recreation and factors per recreation, they usually’re fifth within the FBS in speeding offense (and three of the 4 groups above them are service academies that run the triple possibility). They lead the FBS in fewest sacks allowed, with only one sack of their 7 video games. And that is the sack:

That’s to say, that is in all probability probably the greatest offensive traces in school soccer. They cross defend extraordinarily effectively, giving their quarterback loads of time to throw in order that he can stay calm within the pocket. Additionally they open big lanes for his or her working backs, therefore one of many high speeding offenses within the FBS.

Cal has a battered line of defense going through off in opposition to probably the greatest offensive traces in school soccer. And pretty much as good because the Cal secondary has been below Wilcox, they sometimes have their worst video games in opposition to dual-threat quarterbacks, as the specter of the run sometimes opens up massive gaps within the protection down the sector. Final week I discussed how Washington had an excellent offense however Cal’s protection matched up effectively in opposition to them, and was in all probability their finest shot at an upset. Effectively, Cal’s protection does by no means match up effectively with Oregon, and I actually battle to think about any doable approach this recreation would possibly go effectively for Cal.

So on that miserable be aware, let’s take a more in-depth have a look at the offensive models.

As chances are you’ll or might not know, I take spotlight clips as I watch the video games. Because of this I don’t actually have something I’m searching for specifically, I’m simply making an attempt to seize any second I believe could be vital, nevertheless it’s so much simpler to find out what “vital” is in hindsight. That’s to say, if I had any foresight, I might have been taking offensive linemen highlights, as a result of this is without doubt one of the finest offensive traces in school soccer. It’s often not one explicit play that stands out, however how the unit performs as an mixture: they not often miss assignments, they often win matchups, they usually constantly get to their secondary blocking assignments on runs to open up big lanes for his or her working backs to run by means of.

The obvious show of their dominance, although, is their efficiency briefly yardage conditions. If it’s third and quick or 4th and quick, you already know Oregon goes to run the ball, and also you’re not going to have the ability to cease them. The offensive line constantly will get an enormous push on the line to transform briefly yardage conditions:

How good are they? Oregon is third within the FBS in 4th down conversion proportion with 12/13 conversions (92.3%). That features changing 2/3 4th downs in opposition to #1 Georgia. The one groups increased? AP rank #1 Georgia (6/6), and AP rank #2 Ohio State (9/9). Solely the 2 finest groups within the nation can do it higher than Oregon.

In case you’re a fan of offensive line play, regulate the appropriate sort out, Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu. Like the remainder of the offensive line, he’s an amazing cross blocker, however I discover that the place he goes on run performs is a fairly good indication of the place the working again will observe.

Oregon is led by Auburn switch and former 5-star quarterback, Bo Nix. Nix is a really polarizing quarterback, as a result of his play Auburn was about as inconsistent because it will get:

As a former 5-star recruit, it ought to come as no shock that Nix has all of the instruments to succeed: an enormous arm, the power to run the ball effectively, a ton of athleticism, and so forth. The most important knock in opposition to him at Auburn was his tendency to play “hero ball”: with a subpar offensive line and fixed teaching turnover, Nix took it upon himself to attempt to make issues occur. As you possibly can see from the graph above, that may be fairly hit and miss. As a real freshman in 2019, Nix led Auburn to a victory over a Justin Herbert-led Oregon workforce, though I bear in mind lots of those self same points: forcing throws for interceptions. Strain would get to him, he’d scramble out of the pocket, and throw throughout his physique on the run for an inaccurate and infrequently harmful cross.

After all, Oregon occurred to be the proper touchdown spot for him. Behind a stellar offensive line, he’s not often pressured, which supplies him loads of time to survey the sector and make an excellent choice. The few instances he’s pressured, he does an excellent job of escaping the pocket and utilizing his legs to choose up yards, and now stays calm sufficient below strain to make an excellent choice with the throw when he has a cross rusher bearing down on him (and he solely must do it just a few instances per recreation, as an alternative of all recreation like he did at Auburn).

The very first thing that stands out about him is his accuracy. When he has time, he’s proven some wonderful placement on throws to hit his receivers in stride:

Nix loses a little bit of his mechanics when throwing on the transfer, however he likes to roll out of the pocket to make throws:

Nix has additionally proven NFL arm power on his throws down the sector, not letting his passes float within the air for so long as a few of the different quarterbacks within the convention.

Nix could be very clearly a dual-threat quarterback, and possesses vital pace as a runner:

Consequently, Nix should at all times be accounted for within the read-option recreation:

His capacity as a dual-threat quarterback imply that protection should take him critically each working and throwing the ball, permitting him to search out his approach to the endzone even when there are defenders in place to cease him:

Nix has 8 of Oregon’s 20 speeding touchdowns to this point this season, twice as many as every other Oregon participant. Because of this Nix is often calling his personal quantity within the pink zone. (For the document, essentially the most speeding TDs by a quarterback within the FBS is 9).

Because of his expertise at Auburn, Nix has the power to improvise, and his working capacity often places defenses in a bind. Within the following play, he dodges probably the greatest cross rushers within the convention, and the specter of him working the ball opens up his checkdown on the play:

Watch as the whole protection flows with Nix, earlier than he makes use of his appreciable arm power to throw it again throughout the sector to an open receiver:

As a result of Oregon runs the ball so effectively (and I imply the working backs too), defenses will commit defenders to cease the run, which regularly leaves their corners in man protection. Right here, the specter of the run (on the play motion) sucks the protection in, earlier than Nix launches it deep to his deep menace receiver:

That’s to say, the Oregon offense places defenses in an actual bind, and that in all probability explains why Oregon is averaging 42.4 factors per recreation.

Though Bo Nix is wanting a lot better than he did in his Auburn days, he’s nonetheless not proof against “hero ball.” For instance, right here he underthrows his receiver in double-coverage:

And once more, even with a receiver broad open on a crossing route proper in entrance of him, he takes an pointless threat making a really ill-advised throw swinging for the fences regardless of already being up by 4 touchdowns shortly after halftime:

Nix has 17 passing touchdowns to simply 3 interceptions, however he has undoubtedly thrown a variety of “interception-worthy” throws.

Oregon often doesn’t punt the ball till the 4th quarter, however simply in case Cal will get a cease early, it’s price noting the next Bo Nix expertise. that we in all probability gained’t see in any respect:

At this level in his profession, QB Bo Nix is a recognized amount. He’s received an enormous arm, he can throw on the run, he has wonderful accuracy on his short- to intermediate-range throws, he can run the ball, he can use the specter of the run to improvise performs, and he may even punt the ball. He can run the ball to arrange the cross, and he can cross the ball to arrange the run. Most of his errors are fixable with good teaching, which is why I count on an NFL workforce to take a flyer on him within the early rounds of the NFL Draft.

Nix could be flustered into making errors if a powerful line of defense can constantly generate strain on him, however I don’t see how Cal goes to try this until they in some way get up on Saturday with Georgia’s protection.

An elite offensive line could make any working again look good, and Oregon—no less than below Mario Cristobal—has had such a line (see: CJ Verdell in 2019, the #2 rusher within the convention that yr however has by no means performed a snap within the NFL, whereas the remainder of the highest 5 are nonetheless lively within the NFL, and #6-7 are nonetheless in school).

That stated, Oregon nonetheless has a secure of gifted working backs. Though they misplaced a wonderful working again, Travis Dye, to USC within the switch portal, they managed to land one other: Mar’Keise “Bucky” Irving. I used to be a fan of Bucky Irving ever since I noticed him tear by means of Colorado in 2021. Irving really jogs my memory loads of Travis Dye: a little bit undersized, however nonetheless a robust runner with the requisite elusiveness:

Irving does an excellent job of conserving a low middle of gravity to maintain his legs churning ahead, however he may activate a dime:

The Geese additionally landed one other working again from the switch portal, Western Kentucky’s Noah Whittington. That is in all probability exhibiting my very own bias, however Whittington is doing a lot better than I anticipated previous to the season once I heard that Oregon had a working again from WKU. Like Irving, Whittington runs with an influence that belies his measurement (5’8”, 194 lbs):

And right here Whittington simply steamrolls the a lot greater linebacker:

Though he often leans in the direction of the facility run, he nonetheless has pace and a few good cutback capacity:

In brief yardage conditions, Oregon turns to the true freshman RB Jordan James. The next play is without doubt one of the few instances the working again didn’t get an excellent block on the line, however James willed his approach to the primary down anyway:

Most likely because of their success on the offensive line, Oregon prefers smaller, shiftier backs to interrupt off huge runs when the blocks are there. Oregon evidently doesn’t have as a lot use for the large energy working again that may create his personal yards briefly yardage conditions.

As I discussed earlier, I don’t plan on taking clips forward of time, I simply take spotlight clips at any time when I see them. And but, there was one receiver specifically that I discovered myself taking highlights of, time and again: Troy Franklin.

Franklin is tall, lean, and quick. He constantly beats opposing defensive backs together with his pace and route and route working:

Right here Franklin works himself open in a brief period of time:

He’s proven actually robust arms, and his physique management provides him an enormous catch radius:

Franklin will usually use his pace to get separation deep, and he does an amazing job of constructing catches away from his physique and showcases his robust arms to make the catch even when a defensive again will get a hand in to attempt to break up the cross:

Even with a defensive again hanging onto him for cross interference, he nonetheless manages to make the catch in shut quarters:

Even on the uncommon events Franklin is well-covered, he nonetheless manages to search out methods to tug the ball in. Right here he makes a one-handed catch to tug the ball in over the nook:

Regardless that Franklin is a bit lean, he’s accomplished an excellent job of breaking tackles and forcing defenders into dangerous angles to choose up yards after the catch:

Not surprisingly, Franklin has develop into Nix’s high goal, and leads the Geese in catches and receiving yards.

The Geese have one other robust receiver who has been a bit overshadowed by the emergence of Troy Franklin, and that’s UCLA switch WR Chase Cota. Cota was a 3-year starter for the Bruins, and he’s introduced that have to Oregon. Like Franklin, Cota is an effective route runner with robust arms. Though Cota doesn’t have tremendous fast acceleration, his finest attribute might be his liner top-end pace:

On the opposite finish, WR Kris Hutson is just not the large, tall receiving goal that Franklin and Cota are, however Hutson has additionally proven good pace and catch radius:

Whereas Franklin, Cota, and Hutson have the majority of the workforce’s receiving yardage, it’s the tight finish Terrance Ferguson who is often focused briefly yardage conditions (i.e. quick catch-and-run sort performs):

Ferguson can be a dependable receiver with versatility within the passing recreation:

In backup roles, the 6’5” sophomore broad receiver Dont’e Thornton poses some tough matchup issues:

Lastly, there’s the speedster Seven McGee, who has been transformed from working again to fit receiver this yr. He’s had a quiet season to this point, however he’s a harmful participant with the ball in house.

It’s clear that after squandering Justin Herbert’s expertise with some questionable pass-catchers than Oregon has made a concerted effort to improve the receiver corps.

As I discussed earlier, Oregon poses a horrible matchup for the Cal protection. Cal will probably have to commit additional defenders to sluggish the Oregon run recreation (and to spy QB Bo Nix), which is for certain to end in tougher matchups for Cal’s defensive backs. Cal was content material to maintain Washington in entrance of them final week and let UW have the quick display passes and beneath throws, however this may probably end in bother in opposition to Oregon, who does an excellent job of organising blocks downfield for large runs. It’s additionally tough to think about Cal’s protection producing strain on Bo Nix usually sufficient to goad him into the kinds of errors he made at Auburn behind a nasty offensive line. Cal’s finest probability might be to sluggish the Oregon offense as finest they will (reduce possessions?) and for the Cal offense to maintain tempo with them, and I’m rather less than optimistic that Cal’s offense can sustain for any size of time.

Go Bears.

You’ll find my full clips right here.