Oregon Ducks vs. Purdue Boilermakers prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends, and stats

Oregon has ironed out the early season kinks they exhibited against Idaho and Boise State by rattling off four resume-enhancing victories over @Oregon State, @UCLA, Michigan State and, of course, their unforgettable 32-31 win over Ohio State last weekend. With Oregon ranking 97th nationally in pass plays of 20+ yards, QB Dillon Gabriel hit Texas A&M transfer Evan Stewart for a 69-yarder along with four more passes of 30+ yards to stretch OSU’s secondary. The win vaulted Oregon to the #3 overall ranking and in the driver’s seat of a very competitive Big Ten Championship chase.

Winless against FBS competition (0-5), Purdue posted a 0% win expectancy against their first three Power Four opponents (Notre Dame/Nebraska/Wisconsin) while getting outscored 146-23 in those contests. With starting QB Hudson Card unavailable due to injury last week against Illinois, freshman QB Ryan Browne breathed some life into the offense by completing 69% of his passes for 297 yards and a 3-to-0 ratio to go with 118 rushing yards. Despite rolling up 49 points with a 77% win expectancy the Boilermakers let victory once again elude their grasp, losing 50-49 to the Illini. Purdue’s offense needed the help, as they rank 120th in yards per drive and 133rd in offensive plays per game with 54.

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Game Details and How to watch Oregon @ Purdue live

• Date: Friday, October 18, 2024
• Time: 8:00 PM EST
• Site: Ross-Ade Stadium
• City: West Lafayette, IN
• TV/Streaming: FOX

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Game odds for Oregon @ Purdue

The latest odds as of Wednesday:

• Moneyline: Oregon (-10000), Purdue (+1650)
• Spread: Oregon -27.5
• Over/Under: 60.5 points
  *Odds courtesy of BetMGM

This game opened at an aggressive Oregon -29.5 before crossing the key number -28 all the way down to -27.5. The moneyline opened -4,500, and while most of the market is still in the -4,000 to -5,000 range, Draft Kings is hanging -3,600 out there. The game total has steamed up from 58.5 to a current market high of 60.5.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bet

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks we could see a lot of points this Friday Night:
“Oregon will be able to move the ball at will against this porous Purdue defense. With the Boilermakers transitioning to a new OC and redshirt freshman QB, they’re going to be motivated to still execute and score points even if they’re getting blown out. I’m backing the Over 60.5 points.”

Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.

From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: Heisman Insights

Line movement (open, current)
· Ashton Jeanty +5000, +150
· Travis Hunter +3500, +800
· Cam Ward +20000, +900
· Jalen Milroe +800, +1000
· Quinn Ewers +800, +2200

Highest Ticket%
· Travis Hunter 16.5%
· Nico Iamaleava 9.6%
· Jalen Milroe 8.4%

Highest Handle%
· Travis Hunter 31.9%
· Ashton Jeanty 11.1%
· Cam Ward 7.8%

Biggest Liability
· Travis Hunter
· Ashton Jeanty
· Nico Iamaleava

Quarterback matchup for Oregon @ Purdue

• Oregon: Oklahoma’s loss has been Oregon’s gain, as QB Dillon Gabriel has picked up right where 2024 R1 NFL draft choice Bo Nix left off, leading the nation in completion rate with the Ducks ranking 10th in total QBR. Gabriel’s 88th percentile PFF passing grade ranks 6th in FBS and he threw for 341 yards in Oregon’s 32-31 victory over Ohio State last weekend. The sixth-year signal caller has accounted for 3+ rushing/passing touchdowns in each of his five starts against FBS opponents and has scored/thrown 168 touchdowns over his illustrious career.

• Purdue: Opening day starting QB Hudson Card failed to ignite the offense against their first four FBS opponents and sustained a concussion two weeks ago that thrust redshirt freshman QB Ryan Browne into the starting role against Illinois. Browne provided a much needed spark leading the Boilermakers to 536 total yards and 49 points, both of which are team season-highs by significant margins. His dual-threat capabilities produced 297 passing yards with another 117 coming on the ground against Illinois’ 43rd ranked defense. He has since been named the teams QB1 going forward with Card’s status for the game looking doubtful and unlikely to be a factor even if healthy at this rate.

Betting Trends & Recent Stats

• Oregon was without star DE Jordan Burch, who leads the Ducks with 15 pressures and 5.0 sacks, against OSU last game. Matayo Uiagalelei ranks second with 4.5 sacks and 4 more sacks created.
• The Ducks are 2-4 ATS with a -6.0 PPG cover margin, despite winning their games by an average scoring margin of 15.2 points. They’re also an even 3-3 on the total.
• Despite ranking 129th in defensive EPA with major deficiencies against both the run and the pass, Purdue’s defensive line ranks 23rd with an 8.1% sack rate and 18th with a 27.5% sacks-per-pressure rate.
• Purdue fired OC Graham Harrell two weeks ago and replaced him with new OC Jason Simmons who was on staff as an analyst for 9 months and has been coaching in college for just two years after making the leap from high school.

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Expert picks & predictions for Oregon Ducks @ Purdue Boilermakers

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Oregon @ Purdue:

• Moneyline: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Oregon Ducks ATS.
• Game Total: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 60.5.

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

• Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
• Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
• Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
• Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
• Eric Froton (@CFFroton)