Oregon
Oregon Ducks vs. Purdue Boilermakers prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, betting trends, and stats
Oregon has ironed out the early season kinks they exhibited against Idaho and Boise State by rattling off four resume-enhancing victories over @Oregon State, @UCLA, Michigan State and, of course, their unforgettable 32-31 win over Ohio State last weekend. With Oregon ranking 97th nationally in pass plays of 20+ yards, QB Dillon Gabriel hit Texas A&M transfer Evan Stewart for a 69-yarder along with four more passes of 30+ yards to stretch OSU’s secondary. The win vaulted Oregon to the #3 overall ranking and in the driver’s seat of a very competitive Big Ten Championship chase.
Winless against FBS competition (0-5), Purdue posted a 0% win expectancy against their first three Power Four opponents (Notre Dame/Nebraska/Wisconsin) while getting outscored 146-23 in those contests. With starting QB Hudson Card unavailable due to injury last week against Illinois, freshman QB Ryan Browne breathed some life into the offense by completing 69% of his passes for 297 yards and a 3-to-0 ratio to go with 118 rushing yards. Despite rolling up 49 points with a 77% win expectancy the Boilermakers let victory once again elude their grasp, losing 50-49 to the Illini. Purdue’s offense needed the help, as they rank 120th in yards per drive and 133rd in offensive plays per game with 54.
NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from BetMGM, player news and updates, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to watch Oregon @ Purdue live
- Date: Friday, October 18, 2024
- Time: 8:00 PM EST
- Site: Ross-Ade Stadium
- City: West Lafayette, IN
- TV/Streaming: FOX
Want to check out the other games on the College Football schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!
Game odds for Oregon @ Purdue
The latest odds as of Wednesday:
- Moneyline: Oregon (-10000), Purdue (+1650)
- Spread: Oregon -27.5
- Over/Under: 60.5 points
*Odds courtesy of BetMGM
This game opened at an aggressive Oregon -29.5 before crossing the key number -28 all the way down to -27.5. The moneyline opened -4,500, and while most of the market is still in the -4,000 to -5,000 range, Draft Kings is hanging -3,600 out there. The game total has steamed up from 58.5 to a current market high of 60.5.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks we could see a lot of points this Friday Night:
“Oregon will be able to move the ball at will against this porous Purdue defense. With the Boilermakers transitioning to a new OC and redshirt freshman QB, they’re going to be motivated to still execute and score points even if they’re getting blown out. I’m backing the Over 60.5 points.”
Listen to the Bet the Edge podcast as hosts Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick provide listeners with sharp actionable insight, market analysis and statistical data to help bettors gain more information before placing their wagers.
From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: Heisman Insights
Line movement (open, current)
· Ashton Jeanty +5000, +150
· Travis Hunter +3500, +800
· Cam Ward +20000, +900
· Jalen Milroe +800, +1000
· Quinn Ewers +800, +2200
Highest Ticket%
· Travis Hunter 16.5%
· Nico Iamaleava 9.6%
· Jalen Milroe 8.4%
Highest Handle%
· Travis Hunter 31.9%
· Ashton Jeanty 11.1%
· Cam Ward 7.8%
Biggest Liability
· Travis Hunter
· Ashton Jeanty
· Nico Iamaleava
Quarterback matchup for Oregon @ Purdue
- Oregon: Oklahoma’s loss has been Oregon’s gain, as QB Dillon Gabriel has picked up right where 2024 R1 NFL draft choice Bo Nix left off, leading the nation in completion rate with the Ducks ranking 10th in total QBR. Gabriel’s 88th percentile PFF passing grade ranks 6th in FBS and he threw for 341 yards in Oregon’s 32-31 victory over Ohio State last weekend. The sixth-year signal caller has accounted for 3+ rushing/passing touchdowns in each of his five starts against FBS opponents and has scored/thrown 168 touchdowns over his illustrious career.
- Purdue: Opening day starting QB Hudson Card failed to ignite the offense against their first four FBS opponents and sustained a concussion two weeks ago that thrust redshirt freshman QB Ryan Browne into the starting role against Illinois. Browne provided a much needed spark leading the Boilermakers to 536 total yards and 49 points, both of which are team season-highs by significant margins. His dual-threat capabilities produced 297 passing yards with another 117 coming on the ground against Illinois’ 43rd ranked defense. He has since been named the teams QB1 going forward with Card’s status for the game looking doubtful and unlikely to be a factor even if healthy at this rate.
Betting Trends & Recent Stats
- Oregon was without star DE Jordan Burch, who leads the Ducks with 15 pressures and 5.0 sacks, against OSU last game. Matayo Uiagalelei ranks second with 4.5 sacks and 4 more sacks created.
- The Ducks are 2-4 ATS with a -6.0 PPG cover margin, despite winning their games by an average scoring margin of 15.2 points. They’re also an even 3-3 on the total.
- Despite ranking 129th in defensive EPA with major deficiencies against both the run and the pass, Purdue’s defensive line ranks 23rd with an 8.1% sack rate and 18th with a 27.5% sacks-per-pressure rate.
- Purdue fired OC Graham Harrell two weeks ago and replaced him with new OC Jason Simmons who was on staff as an analyst for 9 months and has been coaching in college for just two years after making the leap from high school.
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Expert picks & predictions for Oregon Ducks @ Purdue Boilermakers
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Oregon @ Purdue:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports is recommending a play on the Oregon Ducks ATS.
- Game Total: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 60.5.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
- Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
The Jets, with their 16th pick of Thursday’s first round of the NFL Draft, might have been tempted to move up to grab one of the set of hands that appealed to them in this draft class. But the Green & White remained patient and stayed put at 16 and were rewarded by being able to select Kenyon Sadiq, the draft’s top tight end out of Oregon.
“It’s unreal, man. Need to be the Jets. It’s special,” said Sadiq of being selected 16th overall and by the Green & White. “My sister currently lives in New York, so I’m happy to get down there. But great interactions with all the staff, in meetings and everything. So I’m beyond excited, super grateful.
“David Bailey said it already,” Sadiq added about Bailey, the Texas Tech edge taken second overall. “This organization is trending in the right direction. And I’m just a piece that can help and I’m ready to help. Whatever the team needs me to do, I’m going to do it.”
Sadiq, known by some as “Sadiq the Freak,” put his athleticism and receiving skills on full display last season with an Oregon single-season tight ends record of 51 catches for 560 yards and 8 receiving touchdowns, which led all FBS tight ends. He was named a second-team All-American and the Big Ten TE of the Year and was a finalist for the John Mackey Award, which goes to the nation’s top tight.
After the season’s end, Sadiq went to the NFL Combine in February and demonstrated some of that freakishness in dominating his position. He turned in a 4.39-second 40, best among TEs not only this year but for the past 14 Combines. He also notched a 43.5-inch vertical leap, an 11-1 broad jump and 26 reps in the bench press, all second at his position.
“I’ve got all the attributes,” he told the Jets media Thursday. “I mean, the Combine showed that.”
Sadiq joins a tight ends room that is now brimming with talent. Mason Taylor, last year’s second-rounder (42nd overall) out of LSU and Jeremy Ruckert, their 2022 third-rounder (101st) are already there and the group will be helpful not only to new/old veteran starting QB Geno Smith but also the Breece Hall-lead running game.
What exactly will Sadiq add to the room, the offense and the ’26 Green & White?
“I think it’s versatility, speed and toughness, bro, seriously,” he said. “I think I can help in the running and passing game on top of that. I’m sure I’m on special teams as well. That’s what I did at Oregon, and that’s what I’ll continue to do. I can create separation, but I can also go hit someone. Obviously, the NFL is different. I’m going to have to clean some things up. But, man, I’m going to go hit somebody. I’m not going to be scared.”
Sadiq is only the fourth Oregon player to be drafted by the Jets and the first in 20 years, since QB Kellen Clemens came to the Green & White in 2006 in Round 2. Other Ducks to become Jets through the draft were DB Reggie Grant in Round 9 of the 1978 draft and TE Blake Spence in the fifth round in 1998.
And the choice may well extend the Green & White’s track record of taking good to very good TEs in Round 1. Johnny Mitchell got the ball rolling in 1992 and was followed by Kyle Brady in 1996, Anthony Becht in 2000 and Dustin Keller in 2008.
The good times keep on rolling for the Oregon Ducks in the recruiting world. Dan Lanning and the Ducks scored a massive commitment from five-star quarterback Will Mencl out of Chandler, Arizona.
Oregon had been rumored to be leading the race for Mencl’s services for months, but the No. 1 quarterback in the country, per Rivals, cleared the air and committed to the Ducks on Wednesday evening. Mencl chose the Ducks over Auburn and Penn State, both of which battled hard for him down the stretch.
However, Mencl has been connected to Oregon for a long time. While he was offered last fall before breaking out in his junior season, Mencl has been a fan of the program long before he popped up on the Ducks’ recruiting radar. In a post shared by Rivals recruiting expert Steve Wiltfong, Mencl was announced as a quarterback for the Ducks when he was a kid at the 2019 NFL Draft fan experience in 2019.
Now, Mencl is ready to don the green and yellow for real and make his childhood dreams come true. The Ducks have made a point to get Mencl on campus as often as possible and as recently as last week. The continued connection between both sides is ultimately what made the decision easy for the nation’s top passer. Mencl said he told Lanning and the Oregon staff about his decision on Sunday.
“The biggest thing was the relationship with the staff,” Mencl said after committing. “I feel like that continued to grow over time, especially when I first got there last spring. Being able to sit down with Coach Koa, really being an underlooked guy at that time, and kind of blowing up my junior season. And then, the path to the NFL. You can’t deny what they do with quarterbacks and the type of scheme they run. I felt like that was the best fit for me and my family to get to the next level.”
Koa Ka’ai, Oregon’s new quarterback coach, made waves earlier in the offseason after his recruiting test about ice cream flavors went viral, but that doesn’t appear to have scared Mencl off. In fact, the two have a close connection that Oregon hopes will translate to success on the field in the near future.
“My relationship with Coach Koa, I feel like that is super, super strong,” Mencl told Rivals. “I’ve had a lot of discussions with Coach Lanning about the culture there and how they’re going to continue to sustain greatness throughout the program.”
Mencl exploded onto the national recruiting scene with a massive junior season for Chandler. He completed more than 70% of his passes for 3,815 yards and 33 touchdowns against five interceptions in his junior season, leading Chandler to a state title berth. He also rushed for 741 yards and an additional 17 touchdowns.
The Ducks expect to have some competition for Mencl to compete with when he joins the team for the 2027 season, with Dylan Raiola and Akili Smith Jr. already on the roster and competing for a role as the backup. Oregon has gone to the transfer portal as well in recent seasons, finding success with Bo Nix, Dillon Gabriel, and now Dante Moore.
Oregon has recruited well at quarterback in the past, establishing an NFL pedigree that attracted Mencl. Maybe he will be the one to buck the trend and give the Ducks a true, homegrown product under center.
Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions.
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