Oregon companies are trying to make sense of rapidly changing tariff policies that could raise the cost of doing business and strain the state’s relationship with key international trading partners.

President Donald Trump has continued to signal support for widespread tariffs on imported goods. Over the weekend, he announced tariffs on countries he said are fueling fentanyl deaths in the U.S.: Mexico, China and Canada. But almost as quickly as the tariffs were announced, some of them were shelved.

Mexico and Canada both reached a deal to pause impending tariffs until at least early March. On Tuesday morning, a 10% import tax on all items from China is expected to go into effect.

“Businesses do not like uncertainty,” Carl Riccadonna, Oregon’s Chief Economist, told OPB. “They do not like to be playing a game where the rules of the game are in flux, and they have to make these adjustments to supply chains and investment patterns, et cetera.”

Riccadonna said the financial markets can indicate how companies and investors feel about future profitability and earnings. U.S. stocks and global markets both took a dive Monday as trade tensions simmered.

In Oregon, industries like agriculture, construction technology and computer chip manufacturing rely on international trade. In 2023, the state exported more than $25 billion worth of goods to the global market and imported nearly $20 billion, according to the trade group Oregon Business & Industry.

“The escalation of a tariff or trade war — particularly with major trading partners like China — could negatively impact Oregon’s key exports, such as timber, wheat, wine, and hazelnuts,” Riccadonna and the economists at Oregon’s Office of Economic Analysis wrote in their most recent quarterly outlook. “These products rely heavily on international demand, and tariffs or restrictions could reduce export volumes, drive down prices, and harm associated industries like transportation and warehousing.”

President Trump has said tariffs will increase domestic manufacturing, lower prices, and spur economic development in the country. But economists say widespread tariffs will likely do the opposite while spurring retaliation from other countries.

“While it’s too soon to predict accurately the effects of any tariffs, generally speaking, we are most concerned about the impact on job opportunities for Oregonians, costs to consumers, and the effects of economic shifts on state and local tax revenue,” Angela Wilhelms, CEO of Oregon Business & Industry, said in an email. “We appreciate the desire to take action to fight the scourge of fentanyl and other substances, which have wreaked havoc on communities across Oregon, but we are concerned about any steps that could further erode Oregon’s competitiveness or deepen its manufacturing recession.”

State numbers show the manufacturing sector in Oregon lost 2,500 jobs over the last year. Manufacturers in Oregon and across the country rely on parts from overseas.

Oregon Business & Industry represents more than 1,600 companies of different sizes in a number of sectors. OBI director Wilhelms said the organization “will continue to talk to businesses across the state in a variety of industries” regarding what she called “a rapidly evolving situation.”

One of Oregon’s biggest trading hubs is the Port of Portland’s Terminal 6, where large shipping containers full of goods from overseas are unloaded. Empty containers are then filled with Oregon products and shipped back out to the global market.

Longtime longshoreman Leal Sundet said people working at the terminal took the changing news about tariffs in stride.

“I don’t think they see it’s going to have any detrimental impact on the amount of work that we’re going to have,” Sundet, who is also the secretary for the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 8, told OPB.

Still, Sundet said the union supports trade free of restrictions.

“It’s in our interest that we have open trade,” Sundet said. “We’ve always been free traders, the position of the ILWU has been free trade. We make a living off of free trade.”