New Mexico
St. John’s vs. New Mexico prediction: College basketball odds, picks
St. John’s is 3-0 on the year with three 20-plus point wins.
Of course, the Johnnies haven’t played anybody, overwhelming Fordham, Quinnipiac and Wagner.
New Mexico will be Rick Pitino and Co.’s toughest test yet.
The Lobos have already posted a KenPom top-25 win after beating UCLA last Friday in Las Vegas.
Donovan Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph are a formidable inside-out duo.
These are two similar squads, and I think the Lobos have a fighting chance of keeping it close for 40 minutes.
New Mexico vs. St. John’s odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | +8.5 (-108) | +290 | Over 161.5 (-114) |
| St. John’s | -8.5 (-112) | -375 | Under 161.5 (-106) |
New Mexico vs. St. John’s prediction
(12 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)
Both squads run up-tempo, transition-reliant offenses centered around their backcourts. The Lobos and Johnnies will put the ball in their guards’ hands and let them run the open court for 40 minutes.
Both squads have talented frontcourt pieces but limited frontcourt depth. They are also limited in the shooting and spacing departments, often creating in the mid-range.
These are two above-average transition defenses, so while I expect plenty of transition attempts, both might find trouble scoring efficiently.
But there are a few matchup wrinkles that favor the Lobos.
In theory, Coach Pitino’s matchup zone defense should neutralize ball-screen actions.
But in practice, the Johnnies’ ball-screen coverage has been more than sketchy. They ranked 332nd nationally in pick-and-roll PPP allowed last season (.88) and allowed opponents to run the set at a well-above-average rate.
That doesn’t bode well for this matchup, given the Lobos run almost exclusively ball-screen sets with Dent, Junior Joseph and Mustapha Amzil in the half-court.
Additionally, I’m impressed with New Mexico’s rim pressure in the early season. The Lobos are averaging 28 at-the-rim field-goal attempts per game (98th percentile). That will undoubtedly result in higher-efficiency shots than St. John’s mid-range-reliant attack.
The Johnnies ranked 325th nationally in Rim-and-3 rate last season, and their most significant offseason addition is former Seton Hall guard Kadary Richmond, a talented two-way player who spends too much time pedaling in the middle of the floor.
I’m also uncertain how the Red Storm’s offense will look without Joel Soriano.
Sunday will be their first true test without their former star center.
He grabbed a million offensive rebounds last year, masking a shooting-deficient roster by creating consistent second-chance offense.
This year’s roster doesn’t have an adequate replacement, especially if they keep playing the 6-foot-7 RJ Luis at the four.
That gets to a more overarching point about roster continuity.
Teams with more returning production tend to outperform teams with less in the early season — fully formed teams perform better than the transfer-laden ones in November and December.
Betting on College Basketball?
New Mexico ranks 66th nationally in minutes continuity (49%), while St. John’s ranks 263rd (22%).
The Johnnies are relying on four transfers for significant possession minutes.
New Mexico vs. St. John’s pick
The Lobos and Johnnies play very similar schemes, making me think the two will play a closely-contested game.
But I’m willing to back New Mexico’s returning players and ball-screen offense against St. John’s transfers and sketchy ball-screen coverage defense.
Best Bet: New Mexico +8.5 (-108, FanDuel)
SALT LAKE CITY — A missionary for The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints from Utah has passed away in his sleep unexpectedly Saturday in New Mexico, according to a news release from The Church.
Elder Caleb Gene Martin, 21, died from a medical cause that has not been determined, Church spokesman Sam Penrod said in a statement.
According to The Church, Martin had been serving in the New Mexico Farmington Mission since May 2024. He was from Salem, Utah.
Elder Caleb Gene Martin, 21, died in his sleep on Jan. 3 from a medical cause that has yet to be determined. He was serving in the New Mexico Farmington Mission. (The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints)
“We extend our heartfelt condolences to his family, friends and fellow missionaries. We pray they will find comfort and strength through their faith in the gospel of Jesus Christ and feel the Savior’s love as they honor Elder Martin’s life and devoted missionary service,” the statement said.
According to the release, an autopsy is planned.
This is a developing story and may be updated.
Southeastern New Mexico will see some snow while other places will generally see cooler, more winter-like temperatures. See the latest conditions at KOB.com/Weather.
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. — Some notable cities in New Mexico could see multiple inches of snow, along with possible wind and cooler temperatures Sunday into Monday.
There is going to be snow across the southeast. A winter storm advisory is in effect all throughout areas like Ruidoso and out toward the Texas state line. A winter storm warning for Carlsbad and even a blizzard warning for the Guadalupe Mountains. These advisories and warnings indicate it’s going to continue until Monday at 6 p.m.
How much snow might there be? Ruidoso could see a few inches, along with other higher-elevation areas. Carlsbad might even see as much as two inches and Roswell has a very good chance of snow.
Wind gusts ranged from 23 mph for Hobbs and Clovis, 25 in Santa Rosa and similar readings in other places. Temperatures could hit sub-freezing temperatures in places like Ruidoso, Roswell, Carlsbad and Hobbs. Meanwhile, Gallup and Grants could get into the single-digits. Plus, places like Albuquerque and Santa Fe will be in the 20s but the big “winner” is Alamosa, Colorado, with 2 degrees.
Chief Meteorologist Eddie Garcia shares all the details in his full forecast in the video above.
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