New Mexico
St. John’s vs. New Mexico prediction: College basketball odds, picks
St. John’s is 3-0 on the year with three 20-plus point wins.
Of course, the Johnnies haven’t played anybody, overwhelming Fordham, Quinnipiac and Wagner.
New Mexico will be Rick Pitino and Co.’s toughest test yet.
The Lobos have already posted a KenPom top-25 win after beating UCLA last Friday in Las Vegas.
Donovan Dent and Nelly Junior Joseph are a formidable inside-out duo.
These are two similar squads, and I think the Lobos have a fighting chance of keeping it close for 40 minutes.
New Mexico vs. St. John’s odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | +8.5 (-108) | +290 | Over 161.5 (-114) |
| St. John’s | -8.5 (-112) | -375 | Under 161.5 (-106) |
New Mexico vs. St. John’s prediction
(12 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1)
Both squads run up-tempo, transition-reliant offenses centered around their backcourts. The Lobos and Johnnies will put the ball in their guards’ hands and let them run the open court for 40 minutes.
Both squads have talented frontcourt pieces but limited frontcourt depth. They are also limited in the shooting and spacing departments, often creating in the mid-range.
These are two above-average transition defenses, so while I expect plenty of transition attempts, both might find trouble scoring efficiently.
But there are a few matchup wrinkles that favor the Lobos.
In theory, Coach Pitino’s matchup zone defense should neutralize ball-screen actions.
But in practice, the Johnnies’ ball-screen coverage has been more than sketchy. They ranked 332nd nationally in pick-and-roll PPP allowed last season (.88) and allowed opponents to run the set at a well-above-average rate.
That doesn’t bode well for this matchup, given the Lobos run almost exclusively ball-screen sets with Dent, Junior Joseph and Mustapha Amzil in the half-court.
Additionally, I’m impressed with New Mexico’s rim pressure in the early season. The Lobos are averaging 28 at-the-rim field-goal attempts per game (98th percentile). That will undoubtedly result in higher-efficiency shots than St. John’s mid-range-reliant attack.
The Johnnies ranked 325th nationally in Rim-and-3 rate last season, and their most significant offseason addition is former Seton Hall guard Kadary Richmond, a talented two-way player who spends too much time pedaling in the middle of the floor.
I’m also uncertain how the Red Storm’s offense will look without Joel Soriano.
Sunday will be their first true test without their former star center.
He grabbed a million offensive rebounds last year, masking a shooting-deficient roster by creating consistent second-chance offense.
This year’s roster doesn’t have an adequate replacement, especially if they keep playing the 6-foot-7 RJ Luis at the four.
That gets to a more overarching point about roster continuity.
Teams with more returning production tend to outperform teams with less in the early season — fully formed teams perform better than the transfer-laden ones in November and December.
Betting on College Basketball?
New Mexico ranks 66th nationally in minutes continuity (49%), while St. John’s ranks 263rd (22%).
The Johnnies are relying on four transfers for significant possession minutes.
New Mexico vs. St. John’s pick
The Lobos and Johnnies play very similar schemes, making me think the two will play a closely-contested game.
But I’m willing to back New Mexico’s returning players and ball-screen offense against St. John’s transfers and sketchy ball-screen coverage defense.
Best Bet: New Mexico +8.5 (-108, FanDuel)
The Chaparral High School football program in Southern New Mexico is making a name for itself these days.
And for the first time, the state of New Mexico is taking notice of the Lobos program. Chaparral High School is located less than 30 miles from Northeast El Paso.
The Lobos are 8-3 overall and seeded No. 3 in the Class 4A playoffs. The eight wins are the most in school history and the No. 3 seed in the playoffs is the highest seed the Lobos have ever had in the playoffs.
The Lobos defeated No. 6 seed Moriarty, 42-41, in the state quarterfinals on Nov. 14 when Lobos quarterback Israel Nieto scored with a rushing touchdown and it was followed by a successful extra point to advance the Lobos. Twelve teams made the state playoffs.
There are multiple classifications in New Mexico, ranging from Class 2A to Class 6A, as well as six-man and eight-man football divisions.
Chaparral football history
The Lobos played their first varsity game in 2007 and went 1-9 that season. The Lobos have had seven seasons with no wins,
The Lobos had winning seasons in 2015 and 2017, both times going 6-4.
Chaparral breaks through in 2024
Chaparral made the postseason in 2024 and defeated Portales in the first round on the road, securing the program’s first-ever playoff win.
Fast forward to 2025
The Lobos have won 8 of their last 10 games after losing their season opener to Gadsden. They went 4-2 in District 2-4A, which placed them second behind Albuquerque St. Pius.
The Lobos defeated strong teams from Albuquerque (Academy and Manzano), the state’s largest city, and another team from Los Lunas (Valencia HS), which is near Albuquerque.
Chaparral players to watch
- Israel Nieto, QB. He has 1,786 yards passing, 634 yards rushing, 19 touchdown passes and 15 rushing touchdown runs.
- Raul Lopez, RB. Lopez has rushed for 1,092 yards and has 470 yards rushing.
- Aaron Eliserio, WR. He has caught eight touchdown passes.
Chaparral’s coaching staff
Joseph Frias, who played quarterback at El Paso’s Franklin High School and graduated in 2003, is the second-year head coach.
His staff includes defensive coordinator Stephen White, offensive coordinator Esai Ontiveros and defensive backs and wide receiver coach David Butler.
What’s next for Chaparral
The Lobos will play No. 2 St. Pius at 1 p.m. Saturday, Nov. 22, at Nusenda Community Stadium in Albuquerque in the state semifinals. The winner will play either No. 1 Bloomfield or No. 4 Taos in the state finals.
What Chaparral head coach Joseph Frias said
“The kids have worked hard and bought into what we want to do,” Frias said. “Making the playoffs last year and winning a playoff game meant so much to the program. It gave us momentum.”
What Chaparral player Israel Nieto said
“We’ve had great support from the community, we’ve played with confidence and determination,” Nieto said.
Felix F. Chavez can be reached at fchavez@elpasotimes.com; @Fchavezeptimes on X
Joshua Wheeler was raised in Alamogordo, New Mexico and his work has been described as “lyrical and funny” as well as “poetic and highly entertaining.” One of the two books he will read excerpts from next month is about southern New Mexico.
As part of the Nelson-Boswell Reading Series, La Sociedad para Las Artes will host a public reading by Wheeler, a Louisiana State University professor, from his publications “Acid West: Essays” and “High Heaven: A Novel.”
The reading begins at 7:30 p.m. Friday, Dec. 5 in New Mexico State University’s CMI Theater in Milton Hall, Room 171. A free reception will follow, where copies of Wheeler’s books will be available for purchase.
Wheeler is now based in New Orleans where he teaches creative writing at LSU. His debut novel “High Heaven” explores the evolution of faith and technology through the U.S.’s space age. His collection of essays “Acid West” follows the history of innovation and identity as seen from southern New Mexico – from cowboys and UFOs to nuclear testing and spaceports.
The Nelson-Boswell Reading Series invites visiting writers to NMSU to share their work with the community. La Sociedad para Las Artes is seeking to establish a permanent endowed fund through the NMSU Foundation whose earnings will support creative writing programs, including visiting writers and reading series as well as creative writing workshops for children in Las Cruces Public Schools.
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CUTLINE: Louisiana State University assistant professor of creative writing Joshua Wheeler will read from “Acid West: Essays” and “High Heaven: A Novel” at 7:30 p.m. Friday, Dec. 5 in New Mexico State University’s CMI Theater in Milton Hall, Room 171 as part of NMSU’s Nelson-Boswell Reading Series hosted by La Sociedad para Las Artes. (Courtesy photo)
New Mexico
Rain starts moving into New Mexico tonight, with more rain and mountain snow through Thursday
Grant’s Tuesday Evening Forecast
A storm system will start bringing rain and thunderstorms into New Mexico tonight. More rain and mountain snow will expand across the state through Thursday.
It’s been another mild day across New Mexico Tuesday with high temperatures hovering near and above average again today. High clouds have been filtering some of the sunshine though as upper level moisture increases ahead of our next storm system. We will already start to see some rain develop in southwest and western New Mexico this evening. These rain and very high elevation snow showers will lift northward into more of New Mexico by Wednesday morning, bringing an isolated chance for precipitation to areas along and south of I-40, with a spotty precipitation chance in northern New Mexico. Scattered showers and storms will redevelop across the western half of New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures will see little change Wednesday.
Lift associated with the storm system will increase across New Mexico Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. This will cause a big increase in rain and mountain snow form southwest New Mexico to the northern mountains. On and off showers, storms, and mountain snow will continue through the morning and early afternoon, bringing all of New Mexico a chance for rain. Some of the heaviest rain will fall in southern New Mexico, along with the Rio Grande Valley and into the northern mountains. Precipitation will wrap up from south to north through Thursday evening with some lingering rain and mountain snow in northern New Mexico into early Friday morning. Forecast rainfall amounts have been trending higher across the state, along with snow totals. At least a couple inches of snow is likely above 8,000′, with up 6″ above 9,000′. High temperatures will be much cooler Thursday.
Cooler air sticks around Friday with a slight warming trend this weekend. Another storm is possible by Sunday, which could bring back rain and mountain snow chances.
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