Welcome to the early voting blog!

This biennial tradition to track Nevada ballot patterns begins today as voters flock to the polls — well, perhaps not flock in very large numbers because it is a primary in a midterm with not a lot to excite regular folks. (If you have any questions or corrections, criticisms or kudos, feel free to email me at [email protected]. I’m here for you.)

I will try to update this blog at least once daily, and perhaps more as events warrant. A cautionary note: This is not like a general election where I can tell with some accuracy what the partisan turnout patterns mean, sometimes even being able to declare races over before Election Day because so many Nevadans cast votes early, either in person or by mail. That will not be the case in a primary, where the most significant data point I will be watching is total turnout. The lower it is, the more likely strange stuff will happen and the base-worthy contenders will have a better chance.

For context, statewide primary turnout in 2024 was 19 percent while in 2022 it was 26 percent. Turnout also is dependent on whether there are high-profile races at the top of the ballot, and there really aren’t any, especially because there is no Senate race this cycle in Nevada.

In the governor’s race, the Democratic primary between Attorney General Aaron Ford and she-who-will-not-be-named-by-Ford (Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill, for the record) has not attracted much attention at all because Ford has not spent any money and Hill doesn’t have much. Gov. Joe Lombardo and his allies have done their best to boost Ford’s name ID with all the noise about the AG’s global peregrinations.

It is hard to believe that the feisty and expensive Democratic AG primary will drive up turnout statewide that much from what it has traditionally been, although some local races may have a slight impact. One thing to watch is turnout in Washoe County, which could be higher than usual because of the 2nd Congressional District primary and the Reno’s mayoral race. If it is really high, could that give Hill a chance for an upset? Probably not, but worth keeping an eye on it.

With the assistance of my new best friend, whose name is Claude, I have assembled historical turnout patterns and some projections for this year. You can see from this chart just how low Clark’s turnout is compared to other counties, with Washoe a little higher and the rurals significantly above both urban counties (“M” is midterm, “Pres” is presidential year).

I have used these past totals to help project what 2026 will show, and my best guess (subject to change as votes are cast) is that between 150,000 and 180,000 ballots will be cast on each partisan side. (I am not that interested in nonpartisan turnout except to see just how low it is, despite the explosion in indie registration.) I think the Republican turnout will be slightly higher than Dems. But if not, I wouldn’t extrapolate too much to the general election, which is a completely different animal. (That won’t stop partisans from boasting about their sides’ turnout and victory margins, but it’s best to either ignore or mock those releases.)

Some other facts to remember:

— Sixty-three percent of the Republican voters are in Clark while 78 percent of Democratic voters are in the South.

— Mail turnout was 65 percent of the primary total in 2024, up from 57 percent in 2022. You can use this secretary of state link to track mail turnout, which shows 27,000 ballots already have been returned, or about 1 percent of active voters.

— The first and last days of early voting are usually the highest. We will know something from today’s turnout what the trend is likely to be.

That’s all for now. What interests you? What am I missing? Just ping me at [email protected].