Rapid population growth is reshaping Idaho’s politics and creating new tensions across the state, Idaho Secretary of State Phil McGrane said Wednesday to the Boise business community. 

“If there’s anything to reflect on, it’s just how much Idaho is changing, the rate of growth that we are seeing, and the rate of growth we’re going to continue to see,” McGrane said at an event hosted by the Boise Metro Chamber. 

According to data by the U.S. Census Bureau, Idaho had the second-highest population growth in 2025, which was the largest nationwide in the past five years. With a 10.4% increase comes people from all walks of life.  

McGrane pointed to Boise’s evolving skyline and with that comes new business. Idaho business filings have increased from 425,000 in 2020 to roughly 650,000 in 2025 — a 50% increase.  

But it isn’t just the economy driving these newcomers. Natural disasters and people exhausted from their home state’s politics are also a force. 

Look no further than California: the largest group of migrants to Idaho. McGrane noted that northern Idaho farmers picture them as “blue-haired hippies from the Bay Area.” In fact, it’s the exact opposite.

Seventy-seven percent of Californians moving to the Gem State are registered Republicans. 

“When you see the fires in LA, what I see is people moving to Idaho,” McGrane said. “Your home burned down, you’re probably not going to build it where you’ve just burned down, you’re going to find someplace else to move.”

It isn’t just California refugees contributing to the significant increase in Idaho’s Republican makeup. Migrants from all across the country are sharing similar sentiments, highlighting the 58% to 62% increase of registered Republicans since McGrane first took office in 2023.

Migration patterns are creating more of a divide within the Republican Party of Idaho, he said. Multi-generational Idahoans are concerned with agriculture and water rights, while newer residents are fixated on social and policy debates. 

Voter turnout has been an issue nationwide, spilling into the Gem State. According to data from Idaho.gov, about 73% of its voting-age population is registered to vote. That means over a quarter of Idahoans who are eligible to vote aren’t registered.

To emphasize the importance of voter participation, McGrane pointed to a phrase often expressed by Gov. Brad Little: “If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.” 

Just 12% of Idaho’s voting-age population participated in the primary election to select a party nominee for governor. That figure underscores how primaries carry lots of weight in Idaho.

“The overwhelming majority of decisions were just made on the May 19 election,” McGrane said.

Consequences of low voter turnout are often visible in tight-knit elections, he added. In 2020, there was a race for the Ada County Highway District commission, featuring Rebecca Arnold vs. Alexis Pickering. 

The contest ultimately came down to two votes out of roughly 40,000 ballots cast. Around 10,000 voters skipped the race entirely, which illustrates how a small number of ballots can determine elections.

McGrane said those dynamics will continue shaping the fast-growing state’s political sphere.

“One of the biggest decisions that we have as a state is just who gets engaged, who participates and who votes in our elections,” McGrane said.

The Idaho State Police say that Robert Giesick, 40, from Billings is the man missing in a crash on State Highway 55 near Cascade, about 80 miles north of Boise.

A pick-up truck driven by Giesick ended up in the Payette River after a head-on crash with another pick-up truck.
Watch Idaho crash story here:

Idaho state troopers identify Billings man missing in traffic accident

“I was able to find some people that saw a male, an adult man, swimming for the shore from the truck,” said Idaho State Trooper Richard Knapp, who attempted to rescue Giesick. “Unfortunately he didn’t make it. He got swept downriver. Witnesses lost sight of him, and that was the last time anybody saw him.”

Knapp says search crews looked extensively for the 40-year-old, but after 24 hours, it became a recovery effort for the Idaho Mountain Search and Rescue Unit.

After that on Monday came the monumental task of removing the pickup truck from the raging water.

“It was an intensive a recovery, honestly, our operators were tested, their knowledge was tested,” said Mark Boisvert, Code Red Towing owner. “They said it was a very extreme recovery for them, more than usual.”

Idaho business owners have less than a month to decide how to comply with a new state law criminally banning trans people from using restrooms that align with their gender identity.

The law is set to take effect July 1, which would make it a misdemeanor for the first offense and a felony for subsequent offenses within five years.

It’s currently being challenged in federal court by the ACLU of Idaho.

On Tuesday, a panel sponsored by Idaho Employment Lawyers encouraged companies to prepare now as if the law will remain in effect as litigation continues.

Cody Earl, a lawyer for St. Luke’s Health System who spoke on the panel in his personal capacity, said there are several paths businesses can take.

Converting all bathrooms into single-use, gender-neutral facilities is one option, though it could be costly for larger businesses. Earl said companies could take other steps to make the transition more affordable.

“Even if it is a gender-specific restroom, [adding signage] that indicates where the closest gender-neutral restroom is so you could at least show that you’re giving employees an option or a choice,” he said.

Simply adding locks and only allowing one person at a time to a multi-stall bathroom is another choice, though panelists said that could be problematic for businesses with large amounts of customers, like restaurants and bars.

Idaho Employment Lawyers owner Pam Howland said companies also need to consider how this will affect their staff.

“This could definitely create some culture issues,” said Howland. “Do you have the policies you need to ensure your expectations as an employer of respect and civility are being followed? Possibly code of conduct provisions related to that? How about privacy?”

Those policies could include limiting or outright banning recording at the workplace.

Another legal wrinkle to complying with the law, the panel said, is that precedent in both the U.S. Supreme Court and 9th Circuit Court of Appeals prohibit discrimination based on someone’s gender identity.

Gender dysphoria, a mental health designation that causes severe distress to someone when their sex doesn’t align with their gender identity, has been considered a protected condition under the Americans with Disabilities Act in certain cases.

Republican state lawmakers argued earlier this year that Idaho needs to take this first-in-the-nation step to protect women and girls when they use the restroom in private businesses.

A 2025 study out of UCLA hasn’t found any increased risk to safety by allowing transgender people to use restrooms aligning with their gender identity.

A federal court in Boise will hear arguments over whether to approve or reject a preliminary injunction on June 5.

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