Hawaii’s 2024 House elections will see if voters stick with centrist wing of Democrat party

Hawaii’s 2024 House elections will see if voters in the state stick to the centrist wing of the Democrat party.

The Aloha State holds a unique place in United States politics — despite the Democrats’ monopoly on power — as the state’s Democrats are uncharacteristically moderate. The upcoming 2024 elections will decide whether this trend holds true, or whether progressives will pull off an upset.

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As the Cook Political Report reports, Republicans have not won a federal election since 2010, when two Democrats split the party’s vote. Democrat control of the state has largely remained unchanged in the past half-century. Cook Political Report has both Hawaiian House seats as “solid Democrat.”

According to Republican strategist Adolfo Franco, the main reason for the big-tent nature of the Hawaiian Democratic Party is the de facto destruction of the state’s Republican Party. With little chance of electoral success, many Hawaiian Republicans registered as Democrats, shifting the party in a more centrist direction.

“Progressives have been itching to increase their clout, but their challenge is that the Hawaii Democratic party has been ‘a big tent party’ which is economically liberal, union-friendly, and rather socially moderate,” Franco explained. “The almost demise of the GOP in Hawaii has been largely a result of many Hawaiian Republicans registering as Democrats, and indeed many state-level officeholders changing parties and running successfully as Democrats.”

Still, Franco said it is “very difficult to conceive how Republicans can win House seats in Hawaii in 2024.”

“The progressive wing of the Democratic Party plays an important role in Hawaii, but the diversity of Hawaii’s Democratic Party makes it far more difficult for progressives to decisively dominate the party as compared to California and other states in the continental United States,” the strategist said, explaining that voters in Hawaii are usually more removed from issues that matter in D.C.

In line with Franco’s characterization, two moderate Democrats appear set to be reelected to their House seats in 2024. Rep. Ed Case (D-HI), who has held his seat since 2018, ranks as one of the most centrist Democrats in Congress. He was a member of the “Unbreakable Nine,” a group of moderate Democrats who threatened to derail the Biden administration’s $3.5 trillion “Build Back Better” bill in 2021.

Case appears secure in his position as he handily won the 2022 midterm primary 83%-17%. So far, no notable challengers have emerged to attempt to unseat him in 2024.

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Rep. Jill Tokuda (D-HI) is seeking reelection in 2024 as well, after handily winning against a progressive star in 2022. Tokuda unseated former Rep. Patrick Branco, an outspoken progressive, who represented the state for one term, from 2020-2022.

Tokuda handily won in 2022, 58%-25%, and Cook Political Report predicted that 2024 will be “an island breeze for Tokuda” as well.