Colorado
Colorado weather: First lower elevation freeze and odds we see snow later this week?
There’s no way around it. If you’re a fan of the cooler season, this October has not been kind to you so far!
We briefly discussed a possible pattern change around the 18th in one of our posts earlier this month — and like clockwork, looking upstream is at least going to try to pay potential dividends.
Breaking down the large scale pattern: for now, we stay under the influence of high pressure, keeping things dry and warm for most of this week. By Friday and Saturday, we will start to see changes to our weather.
A strong push from the pacific jet stream will crash onshore of the northwest US, bringing cold air to most of the western states. Models are a bit back and forth on how much (if at all) that energy is able to spin up a low pressure system in the Rockies. If you’ve been weather model watching, you’ll know the global models (GFS, GEM, and EURO) have been printing out everything from heavy rain, heavy snow, our coldest air so far this season, to at times not much of anything at all, and everything in between that.
We’re still quite a ways out but we’re attempting to get a clearer image of what might play out later this week.
The most important aspect will be the placement of the potential trough.
The three images above are possible outcomes of this trough Friday into Saturday. The GFS (American), GEM (Canadian) and EURO (European) all show a big “bowling ball” type trough that spins itself out between Arizona, California and Nevada… never quite getting the worst of the system into our backyards in Colorado.
The data above is just one sample from each of those models.
We’ve talked about ensemble modeling before, which takes an average of a data set from these models. The latest from the Euro’s ensemble members shows the center of troughing further north towards the four corners. That indicates that there still is some background data skewing the average further north.
Regardless… the data are going to see big shifts this week as the models try to pin down an end product.
Now, let’s say the ensemble has a good idea on the track of this storm… what is it printing out in terms of snow/cold potential? Well, for a first potential snow, it’s not too shabby. At this range, this seems like a storm that would slow down mountain travel for sure… and potentially lead to a coating of snow for the front range. Some rough estimates on timing would put this storm in our area some time between Friday evening and through the day Saturday.
The GEFS is particularly bullish:
The Euro is less so, and perhaps a bit more in line with its deterministic as of today – showing about a 30 to 40% chance of 1″ of snow in Denver this weekend, which isn’t epic, but would count for the first snow event of the season if we could pull it off!
We shall see! Friday is Denver’s average first snowfall, so if we can pull it off it’d be right on time!
As for those low temperatures this weekend, depending on strength/placement of the low, frost/freeze potential will need to be monitored. Above is the “most likely* scenario as of now for coldest temperatures by Saturday morning. Plenty of 10s and 20s in the mountains, with 20s and 30s along the front range by Saturday morning.
So, quite a bit to figure out still, but at least the weather is trying to be interesting… We’ll continue to update throughout the week as this storm approaches the region! Subscribe to the e-mail list to get the next article as soon as it comes out!
Colorado
Weather corner: Hidden Colorado headwaters, the unknown mountains of Grand County
208 “ranked peaks” are located within Grand County. These are defined as peaks that rise more than 300 feet above its closest connecting ridge or saddle. Many of these high points reside in one of the two largest microclimates in Grand County: the northern and southern mountains.
These mountainous microclimates typically experience more precipitation than surrounding valleys due to mountains creating extra lift for clouds — fueling the development of showers both in the winter and summer months.
They can also experience months of temperatures below freezing from early November through early April according to data from the PRISM Group. These higher elevations, especially below timberline, often hold snow for months after the last major snowstorm. As such, these vast regions are responsible for keeping the Colorado River’s streamflow healthy year round.
This year, many stream flows have already peaked after a March heatwave fueled rapid runoff.
The northern mountains
Including prominent peaks such as Parkview Mountain — the highest peak in the Rabbit Ears Range — Elk Mountain, Little Gravel and Gravel Mountain, the northern mountains have many important tributaries into the Colorado River.
According to data from the United States Department of Agriculture’s Office of Sustainability and Climate, the Antelope, Troublesome, Corral, Willow, Stillwater and Supply Creeks supply healthy amounts of water year-round into the Colorado from the wide expanses of public land that encompass the area enclosed by U.S. Highway 40 to the south and west, and U.S. Highway 34 to the east.
Taking Colorado Highway 125 brings you along one of these major tributaries, Willow Creek, and sends you into Jackson County once you hop Willow Creek Pass.
Willow Creek and Muddy Creek above Antelope Creek are both flowing stronger than usual due to early melting of snowpack. They typically see peak streamflow in late April through early May, but is already slowing down after much of the snowpack feeding this stream has already melted.
As of April 6, the Upper Colorado basin is only at 26% of median during the same period we typically reach our usual peak in snowpack, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service.
Muddy Creek above Antelope Creek were flowing above average, peaking for the season at over 200 cubic feet per second on March 27. Since then, flows have been falling back to 50 cubic feet per second, without ample snowpack to keep feeding the stream.

The southern mountains
With more peaks above timberline than you can name along the southern county border, Byers Peak marks the most prominent peak on the county’s interior and shines in the middle of Fraser’s webcam.
With major tributaries sourced from this region including Williams Fork, Little Muddy, Tenmile, Crooked, Saint Louis and Vazquez Creeks, the slightly higher peaks that line the southern mountains are responsible for a significant portion of headwater flows.
This region can be explored by taking County Road 3 towards Ute Pass and branching off onto the numerous curvy, rougher roads that can be used for various recreation opportunities.

Similar stories of earlier-than-average peak flows can be found scattered through the more numerous sensor suites that measure stream discharge along these southern tributaries.
Williams Fork has likely already peaked for the season when streamflow usually only starts rising in early April. Saint Louis Creek has also been seeing high early streamflow above last year’s mark since mid-late March. While Vazquez Creek is usually still muddled by ice and slow flows around five cubic feet per second, flows have been marked above 10 cubic feet per second since March 20.
Both of these microclimates’ month-early peaks in streamflow have met calls for immediate action with Kremmling instating level three watering restrictions and the declaration of stage three drought by the Grand County Drought Preparedness Committee.
Similar downturns in water supply forecasts from the United States Department of Agriculture for the Colorado River have lifted red flags for water scarcity and extreme drought, not just in Grand County but along the Colorado River as a whole.
The Weather Corner is your go-to column for valuable information about Grand County’s weather.
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Colorado
Deion Sanders says he’s in good health during Colorado’s spring game
A year after being diagnosed with bladder cancer, Deion Sanders insists he’s in good health.
Sanders was very hands-on during Colorado’s spring scrimmage on Saturday, being seen all over the gridiron at Folsom Field.
“Everybody inside these doors can tell you, it’s different when I’m here,” Sanders told reporters, according to the Associated Press. “I’m going to take my breaks, like every other coach, but I love to be here.”
Sanders, who recently departed from the team while dealing with blood clots, repeatedly told reporters “I’m good, I’m good,” when asked about his health.
The main task on Sanders’ mind for the Buffaloes is to have a rebound season this fall, after posting a disappointing 3-9 record in 2025.
“We’re going to make it better,” Sanders said. “We already have with the staff as well as the players that are inside the locker room. I love it. I love that everyday grind of it.
“Things definitely are, I’m not going to say 100%, but things are tremendously better on the field as well with the staff.”
Sanders revamped his coaching staff going into next season, adding offensive coordinator Brennan Marion and Chris Marve to lead the defense.

“We’ve got some good things going on,” Sanders said. “You can see the fruit thereof.”
Going forward this spring, Sanders said he was open to scrimmaging another team, but admitted teams do not value offseason games as much anymore.
“No one’s valuing spring anymore,” he said. “You’ve got several major colleges not even having spring games. The only thing that will bring that back is we compete against another school. I’ve been saying that for the last several years.
“Glad I didn’t say what I was thinking. But I can’t be the first one to say it. That’s what’s needed. … People get tired of the same old, same old, at a certain point. You want more.”
Colorado
Colorado GOP kicks off state assembly in Pueblo
This story was produced as part of the Colorado Capitol News Alliance. It first appeared at cpr.org.
Hundreds of Republican Party faithful are gathering in Pueblo starting today to help pick the party’s primary candidates.
There are two routes to the primary ballot. One is by submitting signatures, which a number of Republican candidates have done, including state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer, who’s running for governor, as well as incumbent GOP congressional Reps. Jeff Crank, Gabe Evans and Jeff Hurd.
The second is by making a pitch to the delegates assembled in an auditorium at Colorado State University and winning the support of at least 30% of them. GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert is going through this route for her place on the ballot.
Republicans gather on Friday to pick congressional candidates, and at least one nomination from the floor is expected. Former state Rep. Ron Hanks, will try to make a last-minute play for the primary ballot in the 3rd Congressional District, hoping to set up a rematch against Hurd, who defeated him in the primary two years ago. Hurd was originally facing a challenge from Republican Hope Scheppelman, but she dropped out of the primary last month, in a surprise move originally announced by President Donald Trump.
On Saturday, GOP delegates will select primary candidates for statewide races. This year all major state-wide offices are open and there is a race for U.S. Senate.
More than a dozen Republicans have filed paperwork to run for governor, including state Rep. Scott Bottoms, combat veteran Joshua Griffin, Teller County Sheriff Jason Mikesell, Air Force veteran Maria Orms and financial coach Jason Clark. Republican Victor Marx, founder of the All Things Possible ministry, submitted petitions and is also expected at the Assembly, where he’ll need to get 10% of the vote to make it onto the ballot.
There are four candidates running for Secretary of State: JJ McKinzie, Ross Taraborelli, James Wiley and Cory Parella.
Two Republicans are running to be eventual nominee for Attorney General: Shawn Bennett and Conner Pennington.
Only Fremont County Commissioner Kevin Grantham has filed to run for State Treasurer.
The other statewide race delegates will get to weigh in on is the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. Among the candidates looking for at least 30% of delegate support are Janak Joshi, George Markert, Dathan Jones, Mark Baisley, and Sean Pond.
This gathering will also mark the end of Brita Horn’s rocky tenure as party chair. After facing a no-confidence vote in early-March, she said she would step down after the state assembly.
Republicans held their last state assembly in Pueblo. It was also the site of this year’s Democratic state assembly, two weeks earlier.
The Colorado primary will be held on June 30.
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