California
Will lower mortgage rates save California’s housing market?
Will lower mortgage rates convince California house hunters to stop balking at unaffordable homes on the market?
What’s next for interest rates is a heated, national debate.
The Federal Reserve is taking a cautious approach to further cuts in the rates it controls, fearing ongoing trade wars could reignite problematic inflation. Fed critics, most notably President Donald Trump, think rates are too high and the Fed should be aggressively cutting.
Political theater aside, what might lower rates mean for California’s housing market? And remember, Fed cuts don’t always lower what mortgage borrowers pay.
Let me remind you, and not for the first time, that a historical perspective suggests that cheaper money is not a perfect cure. You see, bargain financing has a bad habit of arriving when the economy is in disarray.
To see what’s up – or down – with the market, my trusty spreadsheet looked at statewide homebuying data from the California Association of Realtors, the average 30-year mortgage rate from Freddie Mac, and government job statistics.
These economic indicators were divided into three groups dating back to 1990 to gives us a view into how homebuying performed in 12-month periods – when rates fell the most vs. when financing costs increased significantly.
During these 36 years, rates averaged a drop to 5.5% from 6.5% in their gaudiest declines. Within the largest significant rate increases, mortgages averaged a jump to 6.2% from 5.2%.
Rate changes
When rates drop, house hunters get busy.
The number of single-family homes sold averaged a 5% one-year gain during the biggest rate cuts since 1990. However, sales decreased by an average of 6% when rates rose sharply.
But there’s a catch: Sales declined in 34% of these 12-month periods when rates tumbled.
And look out for cooler appreciation.
The statewide median home price rose an average of 4% in the years when rates tumbled since 1990, but it increased at a 7% annual pace when rates jumped.
Plus, prices dipped 20% of the time when rates fell sharply.
Cheaper money can also alter the number of options house hunters have to choose from.
Inventory, as measured by days on market, fell by an average of 11% when rates tumbled in 36 years, but rose 12% with rate jumps. Elevated buying may have gobbled up supply.
And buyers’ timing can change.
Days on market sped up by four days on average with declining rates since 1990, but selling times increased by four days when rates jumped.
Affordability matters. Estimated house payments fell 5% on average with declining rates but increased by 18% when rates rose.
Tricky juggle
Do not forget real estate’s three keys: “Jobs. Jobs. Jobs.”
When mortgage rates took their deepest dives during the past 36 years, the number of California workers fell by 0.4% on average, as California unemployment rose to 8.2% from 6.8%.
Buying a California home requires a solid paycheck.
Consider how employers statewide hired when rates soared since 1990. Jobs grew at a rate of 2.4% annually, as unemployment dropped to 5.8% from 6.5%. Those extra paychecks create potential house buyers.
So it’s a tricky juggle between real estate’s thirst for cheaper money and its need for a healthy job market.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
California
California governor race heats up with uncertainty and potential surprises
BAKERSFIELD, Calif. (KBAK/KBFX) As the race for California’s next governor intensifies, uncertainty looms with the primary election just six months away.
A recent Emerson College poll shows Republican Chad Bianco leading by a narrow margin of one point, while 31% of voters remain undecided.
“The field remains wide open,” said Tal Eslick, owner of Vista Consulting. “There’s a half dozen credible Democrats in the race. There’s really a couple – two – namely Republicans.”
Eslick noted that Bianco’s lead is more reflective of the crowded Democratic field than a shift toward Republicans statewide.
California governor race heats up with uncertainty and potential surprises (Photo: AdobeStock)
He suggested a “black horse candidate” could still emerge, possibly from Hollywood or outside politics.
With rising energy and gas prices, affordability is expected to be a key issue for voters.
California governor race heats up with uncertainty and potential surprises (AP Photo/Juliana Yamada, File)
“I think that you could also see voters vote with their pockets,” Eslick said, highlighting the potential for a non-traditional candidate to gain traction.
California
California threatens Tesla with 30-day suspension of sales license for deceptive self-driving claims
SAN FRANCISCO — California regulators are threatening to suspend Tesla’s license to sell its electric cars in the state early next year unless the automaker tones down its marketing tactics for its self-driving features after a judge concluded the Elon Musk-led company has been misleading consumers about the technology’s capabilities.
The potential 30-day blackout of Tesla’s California sales is the primary punishment being recommended to the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles in a decision released late Tuesday. The ruling by Administrative Law Judge Juliet Cox determined that Tesla had for years engaged in deceptive marketing practices by using the terms “Autopilot” and “Full Self-Driving” to promote the autonomous technology available in many of its cars.
After presiding over five days of hearings held in Oakland, California in July, Cox also recommended suspending Tesla’s license to manufacture cars at its plant in Fremont, California. But California regulators aren’t going to impose that part of the judge’s proposed penalty.
Tesla will have a 90-day window to make changes that more clearly convey the limits of its self-driving technology to avoid having its California sales license suspended. After California regulators filed its action against Tesla in 2023, the Austin, Texas, company already made one significant change by putting in wording that made it clear its Full Self-Driving package still required supervision by a human driver while it’s deployed.
“Tesla can take simple steps to pause this decision and permanently resolve this issue — steps autonomous vehicle companies and other automakers have been able to achieve,” said Steve Gordon, the director of the California Department of Motor Vehicles.
Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment Wednesday.
The automaker has already been plagued by a global downturn in demand that began during a backlash to Musk’s high-profile role overseeing cuts in the U.S. government budget overseeing the Department of Government that President Donald Trump created in his administration. Increased competition and an older lineup of vehicles also weighed on Tesla sales, although the company did revamp its Model Y, the world’s bestselling vehicle, and unveil less-expensive versions of the Model Y and Model X.
Although Musk left Washington after a falling out with Trump, the fallout has continued to weigh on Tesla’s auto sales, which had decreased by 9% from 2024 through the first nine months of this year.
Despite the slump and the threatened sales suspension in California, Tesla’s stock price touched an all-time high $495.28 during Wednesday’s early trading before backtracking later to fall below $470. Despite that reversal, Tesla’s shares are still worth slightly more than they were before Musk’s ill-fated stint in the Trump administration — a “somewhat successful” assignment he recently said he wouldn’t take on again.
The performance of Tesla’s stock against the backdrop of eroding auto sales reflects the increasing emphasis that investors are placing on Musk’s efforts to develop artificial intelligence technology to implant into humanoid robots and a fleet of self-driving Teslas that will operate as robotaxis across the U.S.
Musk has been promising Tesla’s self-driving technology would fulfill his robotaxi vision for years without delivering on the promise, but the company finally began testing the concept in Austin earlier this year, albeit with a human supervisor in the car to take over if something went awry. Just a few days ago, Musk disclosed Tesla had started tests of its robotaxis without a safety monitor in the vehicle.
California regulators are far from the first critic to accuse Tesla of exaggerating the capabilities of its self-driving technology in a potentially dangerous manner. The company has steadfastly insisted that information contained in its vehicle’s owner’s manual on its website have made it clear that its self-driving technology still requires human supervision, even while releasing a 2020 video depicting one of its cars purportedly driving on its own. The video, cited as evidence against Tesla in the decision recommending a suspension of the company’s California sales license, remained on its website for nearly four years.
Tesla has been targeted in a variety of lawsuits alleging its mischaracterizations about self-driving technology have lulled humans into a false of security that have resulted in lethal accidents. The company has settled or prevailed in several cases, but earlier this year a Miami jury held Tesla partly responsible for a lethal crash in Florida that occurred while Autopilot was deployed and ordered the automaker to pay more than $240 million in damages.
California
California warns Tesla faces 30-day sale ban for misleading use of
The California DMV on Tuesday said Tesla Motors faces a possible 30-day sale ban over its misleading use of the term “autopilot” in its marketing of electric vehicles.
On Nov. 20, an administrative judge ruled that Tesla Motors’ use of “autopilot ” and “full self-driving capability” was a misleading description of its “advanced driving assistant features,” and that it violated state law, the DMV said.
In their decision, the judge proposed suspending Tesla’s manufacturing and dealer license for 30 days. However, the DMV is giving Tesla 60 days to address its use of the term “autopilot” before temporarily suspending its dealer license.
“Tesla can take simple steps to pause this decision and permanently resolve this issue — steps autonomous vehicle companies and other automakers have been able to achieve in California’s nation-leading and supportive innovation marketplace,” DMV Director Steve Gordon said.
Tesla had already stopped its use of “full self-driving capability” and switched to “full self-driving (supervised)” after the DMV filed accusations against it in November 2023.
The DMV said its decision to file those accusations stretches back to Tesla’s 2021 marketing of its advanced driver assistance system. Besides the two terms, the DMV said it also took issue with the phrase, “The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long-distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat.”
“Vehicles equipped with those ADAS features could not at the time of those advertisements, and cannot now, operate as autonomous vehicles,” the DMV said.
As for the manufacturing license suspension, the DMV issued a permanent stay on that proposal.
-
Iowa4 days agoAddy Brown motivated to step up in Audi Crooks’ absence vs. UNI
-
Washington1 week agoLIVE UPDATES: Mudslide, road closures across Western Washington
-
Iowa5 days agoHow much snow did Iowa get? See Iowa’s latest snowfall totals
-
Maine2 days agoElementary-aged student killed in school bus crash in southern Maine
-
Maryland4 days agoFrigid temperatures to start the week in Maryland
-
South Dakota4 days agoNature: Snow in South Dakota
-
Technology1 week agoThe Game Awards are losing their luster
-
Nebraska1 week agoNebraska lands commitment from DL Jayden Travers adding to early Top 5 recruiting class