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Two Republicans lead race to be next California governor—New poll

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Two Republicans lead race to be next California governor—New poll


Two Republican candidates are leading the latest poll in California’s gubernatorial race amid concerns that Democrats could be locked out of the general election in the solidly blue state.

Newsweek reached out to the California Democratic and Republican parties for comment via email.

Why It Matters

California is a solidly Democratic state that rarely elects Republicans to statewide office. However, Democrats are facing a potential challenge in next year’s gubernatorial race. The Golden State uses a unique “jungle primary” system where all candidates, regardless of their party, appear on the same ballot and the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election. This means there is a possible, even if unlikely, scenario where two Republicans could advance to the general election and lock Democrats out of the race.

A string of recent polls suggests that could be a possibility in the race next year to replace retiring Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, who cannot run for a third term due to term limits.

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What To Know

California’s gubernatorial race has drawn the interest of several well-known Democrats in the state including Representative Eric Swalwell, former Representative Katie Porter, former Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Xavier Becerra, businessman Tom Steyer, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former Controller Betty Yee.

By contrast, two well-known Republicans—Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and commentator Steve Hilton—are in the race.

The math problem for Democrats would be if the high number of Democrats split the vote in a way that allows Bianco and Hilton to narrowly advance to the general election. Early polls show that as a possibility, though there is still time for Democratic voters to coalesce around specific candidates before June’s primary.

On Thursday, pollster Civic Lens Research released a survey showing Bianco and Hilton advancing to the general election. Hilton led with just under 18 percent of the vote, while Bianco followed with about 14 percent.

Swalwell placed third with about 12 percent support, while Porter and Steyer followed with 9 and 7 percent support, respectively. Still, many voters are still unsure of who they are going to support—and could be decisive in the race. Thirty-one percent said they were undecided in the poll.

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The poll surveyed 400 likely California primary voters via a web questionnaire sent by text message between December 14 and 16.

Other polls have also showed a Democratic lockout as a possibility. An Emerson College poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters from December 1-2, showed Bianco leading with 13 percent, while Hilton and Swalwell were tied at 12 percent. An FM3 poll showed Hilton lead with 18 percent, followed by Bianco and Swalwell at 17 percent. It surveyed 821 likely voters from November 30 to December 7 and had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Zev Yaroslavsky, a former member of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors and director of the Los Angeles Initiative at the University of California, Los Angeles, told Newsweek polls are “largely reflecting name identification and party identification.”

“Voters are not focused on the June primary yet,” he said. “With only two Republicans in the mix along with half a dozen or more well-known Democrats, it is not surprising that most of the candidates are bunched up.”

Democratic and undecided voters are likely to “consolidate behind one or two prominent candidates” by the spring, Yaroslavsky said, noting that other candidates will either drop out or “just be relegated to electoral irrelevancy.”

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“The top Democrat will assuredly receive far more than 13% in June. Republicans have a ceiling of what they can hope to get in California, and when Democratic and independent voters coalesce around on or two candidates, at least one of the leading Democratic candidates will come in first or second and advance to the general election. At that point, it’s the Democrats’ to lose,” he said.

What People Are Saying

Corrin Rankin, chairwoman of the California Republican Party, told Newsweek in November: “Poll after poll shows Californians are tired of the decades of failure and corruption by Democrats, and they are turning to Republicans for real solutions and leadership on issues like affordability, public safety, and homelessness.”

Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party, told Newsweek in November: “We look forward to electing another Democrat as California’s next Governor in 2026.”

What Happens Next?

The primary is set for June 2, 2026, so candidates will spend the first half of next year making their case to voters to convince them they are the best option to lead the nation’s most populous state.



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Can’t win in primary election? Drop out, California Democrats say

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Can’t win in primary election? Drop out, California Democrats say


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California Democrats running for governor, your party has a message for you. Think carefully about your candidacy and campaign ahead of the swiftly approaching filing deadline.

California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks urged candidates looking to assume the state’s highest office to “honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign” as March 6, the final day to declare candidacy, nears. Hicks said that concerns about the crowded field of Democrat candidates “persist” in an open letter on Tuesday, March 3.

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It comes as five leading candidates, several of which are Democrats — Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell, and Tom Steyer — are in a “virtual tie” per a recent poll, the Desert Sun reported, which is part of the USA TODAY Network.

Two Republican candidates pushing out California democrats in the gubernatorial bid may be “implausible,” but “it is not impossible,” Hicks said of the reasoning behind his latest message. Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, both Republicans, lead in RealClear Polling’s average of various polls.

The party chair spotlighted the need for California Democrats’ leadership, particularly over Proposition 50, the voter-approved measure that will temporarily implement new congressional district maps, paving the way for Democrats to secure more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

“If in the unlikely event a Democrat failed to proceed to the general election for governor, there could be the potential for depressed Democratic turnout in California in November,” Hicks said. “The result would present a real risk to winning the congressional seats required and imperil Democrats’ chances to retake the House, cut Donald Trump’s term in half, and spare our nation from the pain many have endured since January 2025.”

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During a press conference on March 2, Gov. Gavin Newsom said that when he is out in communities, people aren’t talking about the governor’s race. It’s an observation he called “interesting,” considering voting in the primary election starts in May.

“It’s been hard, I think, to focus on that race,” Newsom said, pointing to the attention on President Donald Trump, redistricting, and other matters.

What exactly is California Democratic Party asking of candidates?

In his open letter, Hicks gave directions to candidates.

First, assess your candidacy and campaign. If you don’t have a viable path to the general election, don’t file to get your name on the ballot for the primary election in June. Also, be prepared to suspend your campaign and endorse another candidate by April 15 if you decide to file but can’t show “meaningful progress towards winning the primary election.”

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When is the next California election? Primary election in 2026

California voters will trim the field of candidates for governor on June 2. Only the two candidates who receive the most votes, regardless of party preference, will move on to the November election.  

Paris Barraza is a reporter covering Los Angeles and Southern California for the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at pbarraza@usatodayco.com.



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Supreme Court blocks California law limiting schools from telling parents about trans students

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Supreme Court blocks California law limiting schools from telling parents about trans students


The U.S. Supreme Court has temporarily blocked a California law that limited when schools could require staff to disclose a student’s gender identity, clearing the way for schools to tell parents if their children identify as transgender without getting the students’ approval.

Rear view of multiracial students with hands raised in classroom at high school

The decision came after religious parents and educators, represented by the Thomas More Society, challenged California school policies aimed at preventing staff from disclosing a student’s gender identity.

Erwin Chemerinsky, dean and professor of law at the University of California Berkeley School of Law, said the ruling favors parents’ ability to be informed. “The Supreme Court today rules in favor of the claim of parents to be able to know the gender identity and gender pronoun of the children,” Chemerinsky said.

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FILE:{ }transgender flag against blue sky background { }(Photo: AdobeStock)

FILE:{ }transgender flag against blue sky background { }(Photo: AdobeStock)

The decision temporarily blocks a state law that bans automatic parental notification requirements if students change their pronouns or gender expression at school. The Thomas More Society called the decision a major victory for parents, saying the court found California’s policy likely violates constitutional rights.

Chemerinsky said the Supreme Court’s action is an emergency ruling. “This law is now put on hold. So what this means is that schools can require that teachers and other staff inform parents of the gender identity or gender pronouns of children,” he said.

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Kathie Moehlig, founder and executive director of Trans Family Support Services, said she is concerned about how the ruling could affect students who do not have supportive families.

“I am really concerned about our kids that do come from these non affirming homes, that they know that they’re going to get in trouble, that they’re going to possibly have violence brought against them possibly kicked out of their homes,” Moehlig said.

Moehlig said parents should eventually know, but that the conversation should happen when a student feels safe. “Our students are going to be less inclined to confide in any adults that might be able to help to get them access to mental healthcare, to a support system. They may still tell their peers but they’re certainly not going to tell any other adult,” she said.

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Equality California, a LGBTQ+ civil rights organization, shared a statement:

Equality California, the nation’s largest statewide LGBTQ+ civil rights organization, released the following statement from Executive Director Tony Hoang in response to today’s U.S. Supreme Court shadow docket ruling in Mirabelli v. Bonta regarding California’s student privacy protections for transgender youth. Today’s decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene in this case is deeply disturbing. By stepping in on an emergency basis, the Court has effectively upended California’s student privacy protections without hearing full arguments and before the judicial process has run its course. While not surprising, this move reflects a dangerous willingness to short-circuit the established judicial process to dismantle protections for transgender youth. While this case continues to be litigated, the ruling revives Judge Benitez’s prior decision, which broadly targets numerous California laws protecting transgender and gender-nonconforming students — threatening critical safeguards that prevent forced outing and allow educators to respect a student’s affirmed name and pronouns at school. These protections exist for one reason: to keep students safe and ensure schools remain places where young people can learn and thrive without fear. To be clear: today’s decision does not impact California’s SAFETY Act, which prohibits school districts from adopting policies that forcibly out transgender students. The SAFETY Act remains in full effect, and we will continue defending it. Transgender youth deserve dignity, safety, and the freedom to learn without fear. We will never stop fighting for transgender youth and their families. Equality California will continue working with parents, educators, and advocates to ensure schools remain safe, welcoming, and focused on the success and well-being of every student.

The case now returns to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, which will decide whether the California law is constitutional.



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Rep. Kevin Kiley announces run in California’s redrawn 6th Congressional District

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Rep. Kevin Kiley announces run in California’s redrawn 6th Congressional District



Congressman Kevin Kiley has announced his plan to run in California’s newly redrawn 6th district.

In a statement on Monday, Rep. Kiley revealed he had considered running in the 5th District – which could have set up a possible showdown between two current Republican officeholders.

“It’s true that I was fully prepared to run in the new 5th, having tested the waters and with polls showing a favorable outlook in a “safe” district. But doing what’s easy and what’s right are often not the same,” Kiley stated.

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Kiley currently represents California’s 3rd district, which originally comprised counties making up much of the back spine of the state.

As of the Prop. 50 redistricting push, the 3rd district was redrawn for the 2026 midterm election to lean toward the Democratic Party – with those eastern spine of California counties lopped off and more of Sacramento County, including Rancho Cordova, added.

California’s new 6th district is now comprised of Rocklin, Roseville, Citrus Heights, much of North and East Sacramento, and the city of West Sacramento. Democratic Rep. Ami Bera currently represents the district, but will be running for the new 3rd district in 2026.

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Other declared candidates for the 6th district include Democrats Lauren Babb Thomlinson, Thien Ho, Richard Pan, Kindra Pring, Tyler Vandenberg, and Republicans Christine Bish, Craig DeLuz, and Raymond Riehle. 

Kiley was first elected to the House in 2022 and was reelected in 2024. 





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