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Democrats favored in California’s competitive races, new poll finds

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Democrats favored in California’s competitive races, new poll finds


Plus, how California adults and likely voters are feeling about the direction of the country leading up to the November election.

SAN DIEGO (FOX 5/KUSI) — A majority of California voters, including those in competitive districts currently held by a Republican, said they plan to vote for Democratic candidates in a number of federal races this November, according to a new Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) poll.

Five months out from the general election, the poll sought to offer a snapshot of how voters are feeling about candidates, a handful of propositions set to be on the ballot, and the direction the Golden State and country is heading towards.

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According to PPIC, over 1,600 Californians were surveyed between May 23 to June 2 for the poll.

How respondents felt about candidates

Democratic candidates for congressional seats maintained a healthy lead in the poll, notably in 10 U.S. House of Representatives districts considered to be competitive this year and in the race to succeed the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

When asked how they would vote if the election for the U.S. House was held today, 62% of likely voters in California indicated they would cast their ballot for a Democrat while 36% said they would support a Republican, according to the poll.

In the state’s most competitive districts, which include several currently held by Republicans, 59% of overall likely voters favored the Democratic candidate and 39% leaned towards the Republican. About 2% of likely voters said they were undecided.

These in-play seats include the 3rd, 9th, 13th, 22nd, 27th, 40th, 41st, 45th, 47th and 49th U.S. House districts in California, according to the Cook Political Report.

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“Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates in local House district races by a 26-point margin and by a 20-point margin across the competitive districts,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC Statewide Survey director and Miller Chair in Public Policy.

A similar margin exists for top-ticket races, according to the poll. Joe Biden leads Donald Trump as Californians’ presidential pick by a 24-point margin. However, 13% of voters said they would be opting for a third-party candidate.

In the race for U.S. Senate, Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff leads former baseball player and Republican Steve Garvey by 25 points (62% to 37%) — an advantage that remains “virtually unchanged” from the April poll, according to PPIC researchers.

Bond, tax-related ballot measures both draw disapproval

Likely voters in this latest PPIC poll seemed inclined to shoot down a couple key statewide ballot measures tied to bonds and taxes.

According to the poll, about 64% of likely voters in the state generally expressed skepticism about whether now is a good time to issue bonds for state programs and infrastructure projects. However, no specific bond proposals have made it onto the ballot yet.

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Meanwhile, majorities of likely voters said they would vote “no” on competing proposals to reform how local taxes and bonds can be passed.

About 63% of likely voters told pollsters they would oppose a citizens initiative to raise the threshold for voters to approve local tax increases to a two-thirds majority, as well as require statewide tax increases to get a two-thirds vote in each legislative chamber and get approval from a simple majority of voters.

As for a clashing proposal to replace the two-thirds vote requirement to a 55% majority approval for local tax and bond measures on public infrastructure and affordable housing, the poll said a simple majority (53%) are planning to vote “no.”

However, a majority of voters seemed inclined to approve another quasi-tax-related ballot measure that would require constitutional amendments to pass by a supermajority if they are seeking to increase the number of votes needed to approve a measure to the same threshold.

According to the poll, 58% of likely voters said they would support the proposal to make a supermajority, or two-thirds vote, required for a constitutional amendment proposing a two-thirds vote change for local and state measures.

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How voters feel about the state of California and U.S.

The poll found that a majority of adults and likely voters — 62% and 59%, respectively — said they believed things in California are generally going in the wrong direction, with Republicans and Independent respondents more likely to agree.

Meanwhile, an overwhelming majority of both groups expressed pessimism about the country at large, with 75% of adults and 74% of likely voters saying they think it’s headed in the wrong direction. The statement also garnered substantial majorities across political affiliation, the poll found.

Respondents also exhibited a negative outlook on the economy, with a solid majority of both groups saying they believed the state (68% all adults, 64% of likely voters) and country (68% all adults, 64% of likely voters) will endure “bad economic times” in the next year.

One of the major focal points of the economic health of the state touched on by the poll is California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s May revision to the state’s budget. After being read a brief description of what it entailed, the poll found varied views on it, but overall respondents appeared to have been supportive.

Overall, a simple majority of both adults and likely voters said they favored the governor’s approach to close a $45 billion-dollar deficit, although registered Democrats were significantly more likely to say they approved than Republicans.

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Responses are also more mixed when it comes to specific provisions of the May revision, the poll found. For instance, 51% of adults and 49% of likely voters said use of $4.2 billion from the state’s reserves to help address the budget shortfall was a “bad idea.”

“Majorities favor the governor’s revised state budget plan, while specific proposals for spending cuts and the use of rainy day funds receive more mixed reviews,” Baldassare said.



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California

Pursuit suspect in Southern California hits speeds of 135 miles per hour

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Pursuit suspect in Southern California hits speeds of 135 miles per hour


A reckless driving suspect who led officers with the California Highway Patrol on a dangerous high-speed chase was taken into custody Monday night.  

The suspect was leading authorities in chase in northbound lanes of the 605 Freeway before taking the westbound 210 Freeway.  

At times, the driver was splitting lanes in traffic at speeds of 130 miles per hour, getting away from ground units, though CHP was tracking the suspect from the air as well.  

  • Police searching for pursuit suspects in Los Angeles

The driver eventually exited the freeway and pulled into a parking lot in Pasadena where he was taken into custody.  

No injuries were reported.  

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Sky5 was over the chase, which can be watched in the video player above.  



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The Future of Higher Education Enrollment in California

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The Future of Higher Education Enrollment in California


CCC’s uncertain future

As part of its projection of future transfers from the community colleges to CSU, the Enrollment Demand, Capacity Assessment, and Cost Analysis for Campus Sites study provides a pre-pandemic perspective on the future of community college enrollment (HOK et al. 2020a, HOK et al. 2020b). The study projects that community college enrollment among students taking 12 or more units per semester—a key indicator of the likelihood of transfer—would drop slightly from 2017 to 2035, with growth in the Central Valley and Inland Empire and declines in the Bay Area and Los Angeles. Alternatively, in its five-year capital outlay plan released in February 2024, the California Community College Chancellor’s Office projected 1.7 percent enrollment growth, an increase of over 24,000 students, from 2024–25 to 2028–29 (CCCCO 2024). While these differing projections reflect uncertainty about community college enrollment, increases over the past year suggest that growth may be possible. What does seem certain is CCC’s need for additional funding for capital facilities to accommodate any enrollment growth.

UC, CSU, and CCC Face Capital Facilities Funding Challenges

Historically, UC and CSU received capital facilities funding via voter-approved General Obligation (GO) bonds or lease-revenue bonds. However, no GO bonds have been approved since 2006. Funding streams have shifted since the systems were granted expanded debt-financing authority; funding now comprises a complex blend of debt instruments and revenue sources, including state bonds and loans, investment income, private investment, student fees, and philanthropy. It must be noted that CSU campuses have significantly less access to these sources than UC.

Local CCC districts—which have long made most of their own capital finance decisions and have the authority to tax and borrow—have been able to cover their capital needs. Still, all three systems have consistently stressed the need for capital facilities funding to support future enrollment growth. This need has not been sufficiently addressed in recent budget and compact targets, and state funding will likely be more difficult to secure given an uncertain budget future (UC 2023b, CSU 2023b, CCCCO 2024).

There is no state plan to address identified capital renewal needs, and the systems are facing growing maintenance backlogs (LAO 2023). Furthermore, the systems have all identified unmet funding needs for the construction of new facilities to accommodate growing student populations. SB 28, a bill that would have placed a $15.5 billion GO bond to fund K–16 facility construction on the March 2024 ballot was ultimately shelved. Future support for expanding student housing, in particular, remains uncertain. While the governor’s proposed budget for 2024–25 includes funding for the Higher Education Student Housing Grant (HESHG) program, which supports additional housing projects and helps maintain affordability among existing units, it also suspends significant investment in the California Student Housing Revolving Loan Fund Program, which provides zero-interest loans for below-market-rate student housing projects.

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In short, the state’s higher education systems are likely to continue to face significant shortfalls in much-needed capital facilities funding. Long-term development plans from the UC, CSU, and CCC suggest enrollment growth is a priority, but accommodating this growth requires sufficient capacity, which in turn requires funding.

UC and CSU Have Developed Growth Strategies in the Context of Capacity Constraints

As we have seen, UC and CSU have struggled to meet the short-term goals laid out in their multi-year compacts, and they may face longer-term headwinds due to changes in the state’s demographics. And even if demand rises due to increases in A–G completion, the systems may face persistent supply and capacity constraints. Promisingly, UC and CSU have strategized several ways and implemented various initiatives to promote enrollment growth, addressing demand-side challenges by expanding opportunities for students to access their institutions, and addressing supply-side challenges by using current capacity more efficiently.

Both UC and CSU have prioritized expanding intersegmental collaboration. In its 2022 Budget Compact Report, CSU cited multiple efforts to boost enrollment, including a new partnership with the Los Angeles Unified School District, as well as planned collaboration with CCCs to expand dual enrollment opportunities (CSU 2022). UC’s 2030 Capacity Plan explicitly highlights the system’s goal of increasing enrollment at campuses in the San Joaquin Valley and Inland Empire through various intersegmental and outreach efforts, including collaboration with the community college and K–16 systems to streamline freshmen and transfer pathways.

Both systems have explored ways to increase transfers from community colleges, piloting dual admissions programs that guarantee admission for community college students who were not initially admitted as freshmen applicants, and expanding pathways through their respective Associate Degree for Transfer (ADT) program, Transfer Admission Guarantee (TAG), University of California Transfer Pathways (UCTP), and Pathways+.

Removing barriers to access is also a priority. Many programs and campuses at UC and CSU are impacted, meaning they receive more eligible applicants than can be accommodated. This, in turn, results in stricter admissions criteria that makes it more difficult for otherwise-eligible students to be admitted. Some CSU campuses have recently discontinued impaction, removing stricter admissions criteria for many of their programs in an attempt to address low yield rates among redirected admits and increase enrollment among qualified applicants.

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At the same time, UC and CSU have embraced non-traditional growth strategies to increase enrollment in the context of current capacity constraints. Reducing the time it takes students to earn degrees not only helps campuses achieve their multi-year compact goals to increase graduation rates but also allows more new students to enroll. To reduce the time to degree, CSU and UC are providing more effective and tailored academic supports, offering expanded advising, improving their curricula, and scaling policies and practices that worked well during the pandemic.

The systems have also explored increasing online, summer, and off-campus offerings—including study abroad programs, off-campus internships, and partnerships with other institutions. Together, these efforts allow campuses to take in more students without having to expand their physical capacity.



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First California Wildfire a 'Taste of What's to Come'

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First California Wildfire a 'Taste of What's to Come'


California’s first major wildfire of the season is here, and the newly named Post Fire is not expected to enter the record books in terms of scale or damage. But the nature of the fire in Los Angeles County and the fact that it’s only mid-June nonetheless has scientists and firefighters worried about what’s in store for this summer, reports the New York Times.

  • Status: The fire in a mountainous region north of Los Angeles grew to 23 square miles, or roughly 15,000 acres, on Sunday and forced the evacuation of about 1,200 campers, per the AP and the Los Angeles Times. It was only 2% contained as of Sunday evening. No injuries have been reported.





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