6 California politics stories to watch in 2023

There will probably be no scarcity, nevertheless, of scorching political tales in 2023, from jockeying for place within the presidential race to a doubtlessly open U.S. Senate seat to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s battles with the oil trade.

Listed here are some tales to observe:

Senate jockeying begins: Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s time period is up in 2024 and at 89 years outdated, she is unlikely to hunt one other six-year time period. Feinstein stated she would doubtless make an announcement on her determination by spring. If she faucets out, the looming void will set off a nationally watched, massively costly marketing campaign for a seat Feinstein has held since her election in 1992.

Two of the doubtless aspirants are well-liked California Democrats with nationwide followings: Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine (Orange County) and Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Burbank (Los Angeles County). Schiff, a cable information staple who’s acquainted for his star turns within the impeachments of President Donald Trump, stated that he would run for the seat if Feinstein retires. He could be formidable with $20 million within the financial institution, in accordance with marketing campaign filings.

Porter, whose congressional committee grillings of company CEOs are often viral video sensations, raised an analogous quantity as Schiff this yr. However after her congressional district boundaries modified in the course of the redistricting course of, she was compelled to spend down her storehouse in a surprisingly shut re-election marketing campaign towards Republican Scott Baugh. As of the top of November, she had $7.7 million money available. And it could possibly be lower than that after the ultimate filings are disclosed.

With the candidates holding related positions on many points, look ahead to the function that gender could play on this potential match-up. Two girls represented California within the Senate from 1993-2021, when Newsom appointed Alex Padilla to exchange Kamala Harris. If Schiff wins, that will imply that two males could be representing California.

Newsom’s battle on oil: For months, Newsom has been castigating oil firms for the file earnings they’ve been making whereas Californians have been paying much more for fuel ($4.50 a gallon on common statewide) in contrast with the remainder of America ($3.24 a gallon).

“Large oil is ripping you off,” Newsom wrote in an internet petition pitch this month. “Their greed has no limits. They’re making obscene quantities of cash holding fuel costs excessive.”

His answer: Newsom desires the Legislature to create a windfall earnings “penalty” on the petroleum firms. It will set a cap on oil earnings and effective firms that exceed it.

Key phrase: “penalty.” Not “tax.” A tax would require two-thirds help from the Legislature. That’s not taking place even with a Democratic supermajority. Too a lot of them concern the fundraising energy of the fossil gasoline trade to rail towards them.

Thus far, Newsom’s thought is little greater than a theatrical flourish. Key specifics of his plan are but to be decided — just like the precise quantity of revenue that the coverage will cap and the way a lot firms that exceed it could possibly be fined.

Plus, the jury is out on whether or not a windfall penalty would do a lot good — and even hurt. Jon Coupal, president of the tax-busting Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Affiliation, wrote to supporters that value controls within the Nineteen Seventies “led to shortages and rationing, a better dependence on international oil and, satirically, increased costs.” Greater fuel costs would damage lower-income individuals

No matter whether or not this proposal ultimately lowers fuel costs, Newsom’s battle on oil makes for performative political theater. It permits him to seem as populist guardian, railing on “grasping” oil firms “ripping you off.” That matches with the function he desires to imagine on the nationwide stage, as somebody who fights for “Democratic values” as an alternative of meekly avoiding battle.

Presidential race begins early: President Biden is predicted to announce early in 2023 whether or not he’ll search re-election. If he does, don’t anticipate any big-name Democrats to problem him — together with Newsom. Biden is more likely to run once more — a minimum of in accordance with what First Woman Jill Biden reportedly instructed French President Emmanuel Macron at a state dinner this month.

If Biden doesn’t run, the floodgates will swing vast open. Vice President Kamala Harris could be given little deference — not stunning on condition that 49% of voters disapprove of her whereas 40% approve, in accordance with fivethirtyeight.com.

To win over Democrats, Harris, the previous San Francisco district legal professional and California legal professional normal, must erase reminiscences of her disastrous 2020 presidential marketing campaign. After a spectacular launch in January 2019 in downtown Oakland earlier than 20,000 individuals, Harris’ marketing campaign tanked. She was polling fourth in California — the place she had been elected to statewide workplace 3 times — earlier than she dropped out of the race earlier than the Iowa caucuses.

Newsom won’t problem Biden. But when Biden doesn’t run, Newsom could be a part of the sector if he sees that Harris is flailing. A presidential run could be a free shot for him. If he loses, he may return to his day job as governor since his time period doesn’t finish till 2026.

On the Republican facet, just one main candidate has introduced: Trump. However his November announcement has been met with a large refrain of “meh.”

Few high-profile office-holders have endorsed him and most Republicans are dropping euphemisms like, “We needs to be wanting towards the longer term,” to clarify their reluctance to help the previous president. Trump has been operating a virtually invisible marketing campaign. The place are the rallies and hour-long speeches?

The primary few months of the yr will probably be key to observe, as a rival should begin their marketing campaign by then to have the ability to increase sufficient cash to maintain tempo with Trump.

The draw back: No person desires to leap out first — and take in 100% of the assaults from Trump and his MAGA acolytes. Will or not it’s Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis? Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo? Former UN Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley? Pompeo and Haley served in Trump’s administration and the previous president was a giant booster of DeSantis — till the Florida governor was seen as a menace.

Funds winter is right here: Will probably be a really completely different yr in Sacramento. The unbiased Legislative Analyst’s Workplace is forecasting that the state will face a $25 billion funds deficit due to declining revenues. A yr in the past, California loved a $97 billion funds surplus.

High funds committee leaders and Newsom are assured that the wet day fund and different reserves will assist cushion the blow. However that will not be sufficient, relying on whether or not a recession hits or how excessive inflation soars.

One doable answer that gained’t be well-liked: Delay the implementation of some one-time tasks. The 2021-22 funds dedicated $39 billion to one-time tasks and this yr’s funds has $36 billion to related plans. One which may be delayed is a $500 million funding to wash up homeless encampments.

“That’s an excellent instance of the kind of pause we had in thoughts,” Legislative Analyst Gabriel Petek instructed the Related Press.

The information isn’t higher on a neighborhood stage. San Francisco is dealing with a projected $728 million deficit and Oakland is staring down a $200 million shortfall.

Time for outcomes on homelessness and housing: California has spent $15 billion on homelessness over the previous two years.

But six in 10 Californians say they’ve seen extra homeless individuals of their group, in accordance with an October survey by the Public Coverage Institute of California. Many imagine it’s time to begin seeing outcomes for the 161,000 individuals dwelling on the road in California.

Among the many individuals saying that: Newsom.

“We have to see accountability, housing accountability,” Newsom stated in San Francisco after his solely debate look in October. “Extra will not be higher, higher is healthier. We have to see outcomes. Taxpayers deserve it. They demand it.”

Key to observe this yr will probably be Newsom’s newly permitted Care Courts program, which goals to get severely mentally sick individuals off the streets and into remedy. It permits households, group members, probation officers and others to refer individuals with psychotic issues resembling schizophrenia into remedy.

Initially, Care Courts will probably be piloted in San Francisco and 6 different California counties this yr earlier than rolling out statewide in 2024. However some native authorities officers have stated this system is doomed as a result of the state doesn’t have sufficient reasonably priced housing for counties to put individuals in.

Will Pelosi stick round? Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been taking what seems to be to be a laudatory victory lap after saying in November that she would step down as chief of Home Democrats. A portray of her was unveiled within the Capitol in December, days after a fawning new documentary created by her daughter debuted on HBO. She even has a brand new title: speaker emerita.

She doesn’t have any committee assignments. So will she stick round for her full two-year time period?

“These sorts of questions are such a waste of my time,” Pelosi stated this month at a information convention in response to a query from The Chronicle.

If she bolts early, there will probably be a titanic battle for the seat she has held since 1987. Among the many doubtless contenders: State Sen. Scott Wiener, D-San Francisco, former San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim and Christine Pelosi, the speaker’s daughter who has by no means held elective workplace.

That will the largest — and solely — main race of 2023.

Joe Garofoli is The San Francisco Chronicle’s senior political author. E mail: jgarofoli@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @joegarofoli