PHOENIX (AZFamily) — President Donald Trump signed an executive order seeking to reduce and space out the federally recommended childhood vaccine schedule. But local health experts say parents should not expect to see any changes, at least not anytime soon.

What the order calls for

The order recommends 11 vaccines for all children, down from the current 18. It also calls for spacing out the MMR vaccine across three separate doctor visits and includes hepatitis B, which is currently given to newborns at birth.

“We’re changing it to visits over a period of a year, year and a half, so they get 20% of what they would have gotten in one big shot,” Trump said.

The president said the move comes in response to a recent rise in autism.

Local experts call the claims baseless

That reasoning drew a direct rebuttal from local health expert Will Humble, who said the science does not support the link between vaccines and autism.

“There is no correlation between vaccines and autism. It’s among the most studied things globally, not just in the US,” Humble said.

Why the order may not change much

Vaccine recommendations in the United States are made by a committee of experts who advise the CDC and are then adopted by the agency’s director. Critically, only states, not the federal government, can require vaccinations for children to enter school or day care.

Humble said that distinction matters when it comes to insurance coverage as well.

“Congress has hardwired those recommendations into what’s required to be covered by health insurance. So, like, the executive order, it’s aspirational what they want to do, but it will not change reimbursement,” Humble said.

Families could face higher costs if order takes effect

If the order is ultimately implemented, Humble warned that vaccination rates could fall as families are forced to pay out of pocket for additional doctor visits.

“The vaccination rates would plummet because parents would have to pay cash for some of these vaccines. Some of them are really cheap, like MMR. Some of them are like meningococcals, a couple hundred bucks. So you’re going to see vaccine rates really plummet,” Humble said.

A court order already stands in the way

The path forward for the administration is not straightforward. In March, a judge blocked a prior federal attempt to cut the number of vaccinations, and this executive order cannot override that injunction.

To proceed, the administration must either successfully appeal that ruling to a higher court or issue a new executive order with a different legal basis, which would likely face its own legal challenges.

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A former leader of a Northern Arizona University fraternity pleaded guilty Monday to hazing and causing a pledge’s death by making him drink excessively at an off-campus rush event.

Carter Eslick, 20, entered the plea to a felony hazing charge involving the death of Colin Daniel Martinez, 18, in Coconino County Superior Court in Flagstaff.

Under an agreement with prosecutors, Eslick would serve no more than four years of probation. A judge will determine the length and could also impose up to a year in jail at a Sept. 30 sentencing hearing.

Martinez, who was pledging to the now-defunct Delta Tau Delta fraternity chapter at NAU, was found unresponsive Jan. 31. An autopsy found his blood-alcohol level was 0.425%, which is considered life-threatening.

Coconino County Attorney Ammon Barker said the plea doesn’t diminish the “profound harm caused or the sorrow of Colin’s death.”

The Associated Press left an email and voicemail for Eslick’s attorney, Burges McCowan, requesting comment on Monday. The AP also left a phone message with the attorney for Martinez’s family.

Eslick was serving as the fraternity’s pledge master at the time, responsible for welcoming new members. He’s no longer a student at NAU. Martinez was among four men pledging to Delta Tau Delta who shared two bottles of vodka to ensure they vomited, according to court documents. Witnesses reported adjusting Martinez’s sleeping position and checking his pulse and breathing to look for signs of alcohol poisoning throughout the night, the documents said.

The university suspended the Delta Tau Delta fraternity after Martinez’s death, and the national organization closed the NAU chapter.