Arizona

Arizona could have more seats in Congress after 2030 census

Published

2 years ago

January 2, 2024

Arizona could have more seats in Congress after 2030 census

By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services

PHOENIX — If the current population trends continue, Arizona will have a bit more influence in Washington after the 2030 census.
And California and New York will have less than they do now. A lot less.
That’s the analysis of Election Data Services which studies figures from the U.S. Census Bureau and figures out how that will affect how many seats in the U.S. House each state will get. And based on its projections, the company figures Arizona’s population, now about 7.4 million will reach close to 8 million.
More to the point, if the trends hold, that means the state will get an additional seat after the decennial count, bringing the total to 10.
But the predictions are based on more than just pure population growth.
That’s because congressional representation is a zero-sum game: There are only 435 seats to go around.
So that that are losing population — or even whose growth is not keeping up, are going to have to shed a representative.
Or more.
Kimball Brace, president of EDS, estimates that California actually lose will four seats in the House. But the mostly Democratic state will still have 48 representatives, more than any other.
New York, another largely Democratic stronghold, will lose three. That would still leave it with 23 representatives.
At the other extreme, at the current growth rate, heavily Republican Texas will have four more members in the House, bringing its total to 42. And Florida, also a state dominated by the GOP, stands to gain three to bring its representation up to 31.
And there’s another factor at play in dividing up those House seats.
Every state, no matter how small, is entitled to a representative. So that takes seven states which have only one seat in the House out of the mix, seats that, under other circumstances, could be reapportioned to faster growing states.
Brace said whether the trends to GOP-dominated states lead to a political shift in Congress is not a simple question.
“In the overall trend, it’s better on the Republican side,” he told Capitol Media Services.
But Brace said there’s another factor at play: the process that takes place in each state every 10 years redrawing the lines for the congressional districts.
In many states that process is purely political, with the decisions left to state lawmakers. And they tend to craft districts that are favorable to the majority party.
Still, there are constraints, including federal laws that make it illegal to act in ways that dilute minority voting strength.
That generally means ensuring that certain groups — Blacks in some states and Hispanics in others — have the same chance of electing someone of their choice as they did before.
Then there are states like Arizona.
While Republicans outnumber Democrats — and, for the moment, have control of the House and Senate — there actually are more political independents than those in either party.
And there’s something else.
In 2000, Arizona voters wrested control of the decennial redistricting process away from lawmakers — the people who had drawn lines favorable to the GOP majority — and instead created the Independent Redistricting Commission, a panel of two Republicans, two Democrats and a political independent who is chosen by the other four.
That law requires the panel to consider various factors, like respecting communities of interest, using county boundaries when possible, and having districts of roughly equal population. The commission also is required to create as many politically competitive districts as possible, those where a candidate from either party has a chance of winning.
And then there are those same federal laws that preclude enacting maps that dilute minority voting strength.
But all those guardrails have not eliminated complaints that politics still plays a role.
The first process resulted in litigation that lasted nearly a decade as Democrats and Hispanics charged that the panel had short-changed them.
Democrats did better after the 2010 census when Republicans charged that the Colleen Mathis, the independent who chaired the new panel, was siding with Democrats.
That played out over the decade, with the 2020 election — the last run under the old maps — resulting in a congressional delegation of five Democrats and four Republicans.
The situation was reversed with a new commission chosen after the 2020 census, with Democrats this time complaining that Erika Newberg, who chaired the panel, sided with Republicans. Whatever the truth of those complaints, the state now has six Republicans in the U.S. House and three Democrats.
All that will have to play out again after the 2030 census — when the state should have 10 House seats — with a new redistricting commission.
As it turns out, Brace said, Arizona should have gotten that 10th congressional seat after the 2020 census.
The official numbers — the ones released by the Census Bureau in 2021 after being delayed due to COVID and the ones used to divide up House seats — showed Arizona 79,509 residents away from that goal.
He noted, however, the agency just this past month released revised numbers for what they believe was the population in 2020. And that figure, Brace said, showed Arizona had not just enough for 10 congressional districts but another 111,058 to spare.
Blame COVID, he said.
“That delayed everything from the Census Bureau standpoint which pushed things back and caused them to no do some of the activities they had done before to verify and cross-check and that sort of stuff,” Brace explained.
He also said the Census Bureau has recognized “they’ve got to do something different and better.
“But 2020 was not the year to do that,” Brace continued. In fact, he said, some of the progress the agency had made in prior years about undercounts and overcounts “got reversed in 2020, not only because of COVID but because they didn’t get the time to experiment with and implement some changes because of the delayed timetable.
Finally, Brace cautioned that any prognostication of state populations in 2030 at this point come with a very big caveat: It depends on factors that can’t be anticipated.
Consider, he said, the projections for the first half of the 2000s decade which had indicated that Louisiana would gain a set in the 2010 Census.
“However, hurricane Katrina hit the state in 2005 and caused much of New Orleans’ population to move elsewhere,” Brace said. “By the time the 2010 Census was taken, the resulting reapportionment showed the state actually losing a congressional district instead of gaining a seat.”
What also can matter, he said, are changes in the economy, especially when people are unable to sell the houses they have and move elsewhere.
-30-
On X and Twitter: @azcapmedia
States expected to gain districts in 2030:

Arizona +1 (from 9 to 10)
Florida + 3 (from 28 to 31)
Georgia +1 (from 14 to 15)
Idaho +1 (from 2 to 3)
North Carolina +1 (from 14 to 15)
Tennessee +1 (from 9 to 10)
Texas +4 (from 38 to 42)
Utah +1 (from 4 to 5)

States expected to lose districts in 2030:

California -4 (from 52 to 48)
Illinois -2 (from17 to 15)
Minnesota -1 (from 8 to 7)
New York -3 (from26 to 23)
Oregon – 1 (from 6 to 5)
Pennsylvania -1 (from 17 to 16)
Rhode Island -1 (from 2 to 1)

— Source: Election Data Services

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Arizona

Arizona’s Burries Shares Secret to Latest Scoring Outburst

Published

9 hours ago

January 10, 2026

Press Room

Arizona’s Burries Shares Secret to Latest Scoring Outburst

The Arizona Wildcats dominated once again to push their record to 15-0 on the season, cruising to an easy 101-76 victory over Kansas State in their Big 12 home opener.

The Wildcats scored 100 points in a game for the third time this season, led by freshman guard Brayden Burries’ 28 points, and Motiejus Krivas’ 25 points. Burries is now up to 15.1 points per game on the season, which leads the #1-ranked Wildcats.

Dec 20, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Brayden Burries (5) against the San Diego State Aztecs during the Hall of Fame Series at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Secret to points production

Burries has been on a tear scoring the ball of late. After scoring in double-digits in just one of his first five games this season, Burries has scored in double-figures in each of his last 10 games, including five 20-point performances. His 28 points against Kansas State tied his highest point total of the season so far. After the game, Burries was asked about his recent flurry of scoring.

“I don’t think anything changed,” Burries said. “I think just getting used to the speed out there, the first few games, and I didn’t play guard as much like on the ball, and guarding point guards, so it’s all new to me. But, more games, more experience, I feel like I’m getting better with more experience honestly.”

“Honestly just going out there, and just hooping,” he added. “Trusting my teammates, and trusting the coaches and their gameplan, and they’re just helping me out.”

Jan 7, 2026; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Brayden Burries (5) high fives fans during the first half of the game against the Kansas State Wildcats at McKale Memorial Center. Mandatory Credit: Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images | Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

Tommy Lloyd on Burries

Head coach Tommy Lloyd also spoke about his leading scorer’s recent performances, and how Burries is one of the more coachable players on the roster.

“Brayden’s a great player,” Lloyd said. “We’re fortunate to have him in our program. I mean, he’s a winner, he’s always won. He does just about everything in his life the right way, it’s a joy to coach him everyday, and it’s really fun to help him on his journey.”

“You can be pretty direct with him”, Lloyd added. “I told him, he’s a guy that I don’t want to coach by being confrontational with him, I think he’s too good of a kid and he’s really motivated. He doesn’t need that when I’m very direct with him. He’s got enough experience now, I think he’s really learning.”

Burries and the rest of the Wildcats will look to continue what has been a special season up to this point. The Wildcats have all the makings of a true National Championship contender, and their first two performances in Big 12 play show just that.

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Arizona

New study reveals how victimized Arizona women end up behind bars

Published

22 hours ago

January 9, 2026

Press Room

New study reveals how victimized Arizona women end up behind bars

PHOENIX (AZFamily) — It’s a first of its kind study to better understand an often overlooked group of people: women behind bars.

“No other jail system in the country is doing this,” said Dominique Roe-Sepowitz, director of Arizona State University’s Office of Sex Trafficking Intervention Research. “Many of them have offenses that are related to other people’s interference. So whether they were forced to commit that crime with someone else, they were under someone else’s control.”

Roe-Sepowitz spearheaded the effort that explores the pipeline between victimization and incarceration for Arizona women. What she uncovered was even worse than she expected.

“The scope of trauma, the sheer amount of violent experiences was a surprise to me,” she said.

Maricopa County Sheriff’s Office Deputy Chief Brandon Smith teamed up with Roe-Sepowitz for this project.

Since 2018, they’ve worked together to identify and support sex trafficking victims inside county jails.

“A lot of them could be they were more of a victim than a suspect in a crime,” said Smith.

In May 2025, the pair decided to dig deeper with a survey to learn more about the life history of all female inmates.

“We didn’t want to re-traumatize them. We were very careful about asking appropriate questions in the right way,” said Smith.

More than 400 women in the Estrella Jail completed the questionnaire which represents 49% of the female population.

The results show most are mothers, locked up for drug offenses.

77% reported a mental health diagnosis, more than 78% have been homeless, just over 50% have been sex trafficked, and 80% said they were victims of domestic violence.

With that knowledge, there is hope that jail programs can help break the cycle.

“We’re able to tailor programming to that in order to hopefully keep them out of jail, become more productive members of society, be with their children,” said Smith.

About 14% of participants were there for their first arrest.

New trauma-informed programs and training will soon be implemented.

“We’re looking at what can we do for that 14% that are here for the first time to hopefully make sure it’s their last time,” said Smith.

“How to build hope for the future, how to stabilize their life, how to continue the relationships they have in healthier ways,” said Roe-Sepowitz.

More research is on the way. ASU just wrapped up a similar survey in the Perryville prison and plans to conduct it again at Estrella Jail this year to collect additional data.

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Arizona

This prominent attorney collects art to celebrate his Mexican heritage

Published

1 day ago

January 9, 2026

Press Room

This prominent attorney collects art to celebrate his Mexican heritage

Prominent Arizona attorney Jose Cardenas possesses a large private collection of Mexican and Mexican American art.
Cardenas, who rose from humble immigrant roots, amassed the collection with his late wife, Virginia, as an embrace of their shared Mexican heritage.
He frequently opens his home to visitors for tours and events, sharing stories about the artwork and his life.

Prominent Arizona attorney Jose Cardenas loves to show off his vast collection of Mexican and Mexican American art.

But he once made a fool of himself arguing with the legendary Mexican journalist Elena Poniatowska over a piece of artwork on display in his spacious 4,000-square-foot Chandler home.

Cardenas was giving Poniatowska a tour of his art collection during a reception he hosted for the writer. She was in town giving a lecture at Arizona State University.

“This is a self-portrait of Siqueiros,” Cardenas remembers telling Poniatwoska, referring to David Alfaro Siqueiros, one of Mexico’s three most famous muralists.

Poniatowska took a look at the sketch and shook her head, “No it’s not.”

The two got into a back and forth, with Cardenas continuing to insist the man depicted in the painting was Siqueiros.

“That’s what they told me when I bought it at the gallery in San Francisco,” Cardenas remembers telling the Mexican author.

Finally Cardenas backed down, thinking, “She’s getting up in years. I’m not going to embarrass her and argue with her.”

A few days later, Cardenas was flipping through TV channels. He came across a PBS documentary about the 1970 Chicano riots in East Los Angeles. The documentary highlighted a portrait Siqueiros had painted in homage to Ruben Salazar, the Los Angeles Times journalist killed by a tear gas canister fired by a Los Angeles County sheriff’s deputy during the protests.

Poniatowska was right. The figure in the painting was not Siqueiros, the Mexican muralist. It was indeed Ruben Salazar, the Los Angeles Times journalist, as painted by Siqueiros.

Cardenas tells this story when he gives tours of his art collection to visitors. They break out in laughter.

“You were mansplaining” one visitor told him. “No, I was being an idiot,” Cardenas said, “because why would you argue with her, of all people. She knew (Siqueiros). She wrote about him. She interviewed him. Not the person to say, ‘No, you are wrong.’”

Cardenas built prestigious career from humble roots

The personal art tours Cardenas hosts weekly at his home are peppered with similar stories that showcase his self-deprecating humor and highlight his enormous pride in his humble upbringing and Mexican heritage.

Cardenas comes from modest working-class Mexican immigrant roots. But he rose to become one of the most prominent and successful attorneys in Arizona. He has used his considerable wealth to amass what artists say is the largest collection of Mexican and Mexican-American artwork in the state, which he shares often with visitors during various events at his home, from personal tours to his annual post-Christmas bash.

Born in 1952, Cardenas is the son of an immigrant dad from the Mexican state of Sinaloa, and a Mexican-American mom. Cardenas grew up in Vegas Heights, a working-class Hispanic neighborhood west of Las Vegas that was still segregated. His father, Fortunato Cárdenas Sánchez, had a sixth-grade education. He worked as a foreman for construction company that laid pipelines. He was killed in a work accident when Cardenas was 15.

His mother, Gloria Frances Gómez Vigil, was born in a small town in northern Nevada to Mexican immigrant parents who eventually moved to Las Vegas. She only attended school through eighth grade.

After his father died, Cardenas, the second-oldest of four children, wanted to quit school and work to help his family with finances. But Cardenas was a good student, and his mother insisted he stay in school and encouraged him to attend college.

Cardenas became the first person in his family to graduate from high school and then college. He earned a bachelor’s degree in political science from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas and then a law degree from Stanford.

After law school, Cardenas clerked for a federal judge in San Francisco and then moved to Arizona in 1978 to work for the powerhouse law firm Lewis and Roca. Cardenas mostly handled commercial litigation but also did pro bono work on death penalty cases. In 1999, he was named managing partner, becoming one of the few Hispanic managing partners of a major law firm in the nation.

In 2009, Cardenas left Lewis and Roca to serve as chief legal adviser and senior vice president at Arizona State University, a position he held until 2022.

For nearly 20 years, Cardenas also hosted Horizonte, a public affairs show focusing on Arizona issues through a Hispanic perspective on Arizona PBS (KAET-TV Channel 8). He stepped down in 2023. Now semi-retired, the 73-year-old Cardenas continues to serve as special senior university adviser at ASU.

Cardenas and his Mexican-born wife, Virginia, were childhood sweethearts. When Virginia turned 15, Cardenas was one of the escorts in her quinceañera coming-of-age celebration. The two then began dating in ninth grade. They married when Cardenas was 19 and Virginia was 20 by one month. She worked as a counselor at Chandler High School. She died in July 2012 of kidney cancer.

Cardenas and Virginia bought their first artwork when he was still a financially struggling law student at Stanford. The two prints Cardenas purchased from a fellow student are now among the thousands of pieces of artwork that adorn his home.

Couple made frequent trips to purchase art

Cardenas said he and Virginia were introduced to the world of Mexican and Mexican American art when they moved to Arizona and met artists Zarco and Carmen Guerrero at a party. They are the founders of Xicanindio, the original name of Xico, a nonprofit organization that promotes Latino and Indigenous art and culture.

The couple became deeply involved in the organization. Virginia became the program director for several years and Cardenas served on the board of directors, including a stint as president.

Over the years, Cardenas and Virginia traveled frequently to Mexico City, Sante Fe and San Francisco to purchase paintings, crosses, ceramics, prints and pottery that cover practically every inch of Cardenas’ ranch home in Chandler.

Cardenas said he considers the collection an embrace of the Mexican heritage he and Virginia shared.

“It’s pride,” Cardenas said during an interview at his home.

“Virginia was born in Mexico. She came here when she was eight,” Cardenas said. “And I never considered myself Mexican American because when I was growing up, those terms weren’t used. So we were Mexicans.”

After Virginia died in 2012, Cardenas commissioned East L.A.-born artist George Yepes to paint a portrait of her. Yepes is best known as the artist who painted the cover of the 1988 Grammy Award-winning album by Los Lobos, “La Pistola y El Corazón.”

At first, Yepes turned down the commission after Cardenas showed her photo of Virginia, who was known for her dazzling smile.

“I can’t do it,” Cardenas recalled Yepes saying. “She’s always smiling. I don’t do smiles.”

A few weeks later, Yepes emailed Cardenas. “I think I can do it.”

The 7-foot-tall portrait Yepes painted of Virginia now hangs in Cardenas’ living room, where it dominates one of the walls. Cardenas considers it his most treasured piece, along with a portrait by a different artist of his three grown sons when they were young.

“The funny thing about this is she was pretty short, she was barely five foot tall. This painting is seven feet. And she’s sitting down. So talk about bigger-than-life-size,” Cardenas told a group of visitors during one of his tours.

Home is an art gallery, with frequent visitors

Cardenas frequently opens his home to visitors, serving as docent as he escorts visitors from room to room, telling stories along the way about various pieces of artwork.

In addition to the personal tours, Cardenas hosts an annual open house to showcase the ofrendas he creates in honor of Dia de los Muertos. At his Day of the Dead open house in November 2025, during the Trump administration’s ongoing mass deportation effort, one of the ofrendas focused on immigration. The ofrenda included photos of Cardenas’ relatives from Mexico, along with numerous quotes by Pope Francis that Cardenas printed out and framed.

“Migrants and refugees are not pawns on the chessboard of humanity,” read one quote.

“It is necessary to respond to the globalization of migration with the globalization of charity and cooperation, in such a way as to make the conditions for migrants more humane,” read another.

Cardenas also hosts an annual Los Tres Reyes Magos party every January in honor of Three Kings Day, a Christian holiday that is popular in Mexico and Latino America and marks the biblical visit of the three kings to the baby Jesus. This year’s party, attended by some of the most influential people in Arizona, will be Jan. 10.

One of the most powerful pieces on display in his home is a painting Cardenas commissioned as a tribute to the victims of the 2022 mass school shooting in Uvalde, Texas. The shooting killed 19 students and two teachers, and injured 21 others. The artwork, which Cardenas displays in his dining room, also was painted by Yepes, the artist who painted the portrait of Virginia.

The painting depicts a woman draped in an American flag, her arms and hands outstretched in the shape of a crucifix, with swords piercing her exposed heart, while doves flutter around her head, wrapped in a crown of thorns.

‘Everything they have in the collection was for them’

One of the most striking pieces is a massive Talavera ceramic jar created by artist and restauranteur Gennaro Garcia, a native of San Luis Rio Colorado, Sonora, who now lives in Phoenix. Garcia created the piece in Puebla, Mexico, where he studied the hand-painted Mexican ceramic artform that blends Spanish and Indigenous influences.

Cardenas had the piece shipped to his home, where he had to remove the table from his kitchen to make room for the artwork, which towers over six feet in height.

Garcia said he strived for years to have his artwork included in the Cardenas’ collection.

“As an artist, you want you want to be in in collection that you admire,” Garcia said. “His collection was already so good, and I wanted to have my name associated with those other artists” and with Virginia and Jose Cardenas as collectors.

Garcia describes the collection as a love story between the couple.

“Everything they have in the collection was for them,” Garcia said. “I always remember them standing in front of the art, talking about it, and then deciding to buy it” as a couple.

Garcia said he was not aware of a larger personal collection of Mexican and Mexican American artwork in Arizona.

“It’s the biggest one. Easy,” Garcia said.

Cristina Cardenas, a Mexican-born artist based in Tucson, agreed.

“In Arizona, to tell you the truth, I haven’t met anybody else with a bigger or more rich collection” especially of Mexican-American and Arizona artists, said Cardenas, who is not related to Jose.

She has sold numerous paintings to Cardenas. The collector also has commissioned her to paint several murals at his home, including a mural of a smiling Virginia that adorns an outdoor wall in the home’s sizable patio, and a mural of Mexican artist Frida Kahlo that greets visitors to his home.

The artist said Cardenas and Virginia have supported many artists through their collecting. They have played a role in opening the door for Latino artists to sell their work to other collectors, Cardenas said, noting that she once sold a print to former Arizona governor and U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano through an introduction by Cardenas.

“It’s a commitment to represent our people, our communities, and to represent Mexico and the really highest rich cultural history that it has,” the artist said.

She noted that visitors will notice that Cardenas and Virginia have had a strong interest in collecting female figurative art. They were influential in shifting Xico artists away from depictions of low-riders and other traditional Chicano symbols toward prints and paintings that celebrate female figurative art.

Cardenas the artist, and others, often wonder what will happen to the massive collection after Cardenas is gone.

“It has to be preserved and it has to stay together. That’s my recommendation,” Cardenas the artist said.

Collection is a priceless legacy

Jose Cardenas said he isn’t sure what will become of his collection. He knows that some of the pieces will be passed down to his children and family, including the portrait of Virginia. The rest may go the Hispanic Research Center at Arizona State University, he said.

In the meantime, his collection continues to expand. He recently mounted two new pieces by renowned contemporary American artist Ayana Jackson, who reconstructs the portraiture of the 19th and early 20th centuries to, according to her bio, “assess the impact of the colonial gaze on the history of photography.”

The two pieces Cardenas acquired depict the artist suspended in midair in a battle stance while in character as Adelita, the Mexican female revolutionary soldier.

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