Arizona

Arizona could have more seats in Congress after 2030 census

Published

2 years ago

January 2, 2024

Arizona could have more seats in Congress after 2030 census

By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services

PHOENIX — If the current population trends continue, Arizona will have a bit more influence in Washington after the 2030 census.
And California and New York will have less than they do now. A lot less.
That’s the analysis of Election Data Services which studies figures from the U.S. Census Bureau and figures out how that will affect how many seats in the U.S. House each state will get. And based on its projections, the company figures Arizona’s population, now about 7.4 million will reach close to 8 million.
More to the point, if the trends hold, that means the state will get an additional seat after the decennial count, bringing the total to 10.
But the predictions are based on more than just pure population growth.
That’s because congressional representation is a zero-sum game: There are only 435 seats to go around.
So that that are losing population — or even whose growth is not keeping up, are going to have to shed a representative.
Or more.
Kimball Brace, president of EDS, estimates that California actually lose will four seats in the House. But the mostly Democratic state will still have 48 representatives, more than any other.
New York, another largely Democratic stronghold, will lose three. That would still leave it with 23 representatives.
At the other extreme, at the current growth rate, heavily Republican Texas will have four more members in the House, bringing its total to 42. And Florida, also a state dominated by the GOP, stands to gain three to bring its representation up to 31.
And there’s another factor at play in dividing up those House seats.
Every state, no matter how small, is entitled to a representative. So that takes seven states which have only one seat in the House out of the mix, seats that, under other circumstances, could be reapportioned to faster growing states.
Brace said whether the trends to GOP-dominated states lead to a political shift in Congress is not a simple question.
“In the overall trend, it’s better on the Republican side,” he told Capitol Media Services.
But Brace said there’s another factor at play: the process that takes place in each state every 10 years redrawing the lines for the congressional districts.
In many states that process is purely political, with the decisions left to state lawmakers. And they tend to craft districts that are favorable to the majority party.
Still, there are constraints, including federal laws that make it illegal to act in ways that dilute minority voting strength.
That generally means ensuring that certain groups — Blacks in some states and Hispanics in others — have the same chance of electing someone of their choice as they did before.
Then there are states like Arizona.
While Republicans outnumber Democrats — and, for the moment, have control of the House and Senate — there actually are more political independents than those in either party.
And there’s something else.
In 2000, Arizona voters wrested control of the decennial redistricting process away from lawmakers — the people who had drawn lines favorable to the GOP majority — and instead created the Independent Redistricting Commission, a panel of two Republicans, two Democrats and a political independent who is chosen by the other four.
That law requires the panel to consider various factors, like respecting communities of interest, using county boundaries when possible, and having districts of roughly equal population. The commission also is required to create as many politically competitive districts as possible, those where a candidate from either party has a chance of winning.
And then there are those same federal laws that preclude enacting maps that dilute minority voting strength.
But all those guardrails have not eliminated complaints that politics still plays a role.
The first process resulted in litigation that lasted nearly a decade as Democrats and Hispanics charged that the panel had short-changed them.
Democrats did better after the 2010 census when Republicans charged that the Colleen Mathis, the independent who chaired the new panel, was siding with Democrats.
That played out over the decade, with the 2020 election — the last run under the old maps — resulting in a congressional delegation of five Democrats and four Republicans.
The situation was reversed with a new commission chosen after the 2020 census, with Democrats this time complaining that Erika Newberg, who chaired the panel, sided with Republicans. Whatever the truth of those complaints, the state now has six Republicans in the U.S. House and three Democrats.
All that will have to play out again after the 2030 census — when the state should have 10 House seats — with a new redistricting commission.
As it turns out, Brace said, Arizona should have gotten that 10th congressional seat after the 2020 census.
The official numbers — the ones released by the Census Bureau in 2021 after being delayed due to COVID and the ones used to divide up House seats — showed Arizona 79,509 residents away from that goal.
He noted, however, the agency just this past month released revised numbers for what they believe was the population in 2020. And that figure, Brace said, showed Arizona had not just enough for 10 congressional districts but another 111,058 to spare.
Blame COVID, he said.
“That delayed everything from the Census Bureau standpoint which pushed things back and caused them to no do some of the activities they had done before to verify and cross-check and that sort of stuff,” Brace explained.
He also said the Census Bureau has recognized “they’ve got to do something different and better.
“But 2020 was not the year to do that,” Brace continued. In fact, he said, some of the progress the agency had made in prior years about undercounts and overcounts “got reversed in 2020, not only because of COVID but because they didn’t get the time to experiment with and implement some changes because of the delayed timetable.
Finally, Brace cautioned that any prognostication of state populations in 2030 at this point come with a very big caveat: It depends on factors that can’t be anticipated.
Consider, he said, the projections for the first half of the 2000s decade which had indicated that Louisiana would gain a set in the 2010 Census.
“However, hurricane Katrina hit the state in 2005 and caused much of New Orleans’ population to move elsewhere,” Brace said. “By the time the 2010 Census was taken, the resulting reapportionment showed the state actually losing a congressional district instead of gaining a seat.”
What also can matter, he said, are changes in the economy, especially when people are unable to sell the houses they have and move elsewhere.
-30-
On X and Twitter: @azcapmedia
States expected to gain districts in 2030:

Arizona +1 (from 9 to 10)
Florida + 3 (from 28 to 31)
Georgia +1 (from 14 to 15)
Idaho +1 (from 2 to 3)
North Carolina +1 (from 14 to 15)
Tennessee +1 (from 9 to 10)
Texas +4 (from 38 to 42)
Utah +1 (from 4 to 5)

States expected to lose districts in 2030:

California -4 (from 52 to 48)
Illinois -2 (from17 to 15)
Minnesota -1 (from 8 to 7)
New York -3 (from26 to 23)
Oregon – 1 (from 6 to 5)
Pennsylvania -1 (from 17 to 16)
Rhode Island -1 (from 2 to 1)

— Source: Election Data Services

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Arizona

Arizona NAACP responds to ‘Simon Says’ case, calls for police accountability

Published

7 hours ago

March 2, 2026

Press Room

Arizona NAACP responds to ‘Simon Says’ case, calls for police accountability

PHOENIX — The Arizona NAACP is responding to the violent arrest of Israel Devoe, a Phoenix man who was acquitted of all charges stemming from a 2024 traffic stop in which officers punched, kneed, and elbowed him.

Sarah Tyree, president of the Arizona NAACP State Conference, said the case is part of a broader and familiar pattern.

“What happened here reflects a pattern our communities know all too well. Time and again, we see policing tactics that are dangerous and deeply harmful to civilians, yet are later justified as ‘within policy’ through carefully crafted reports and the broad protections afforded under Graham v. Connor,” Tyree wrote in an emailed statement following an ABC15 investigation.

RELATED: Phoenix man to file lawsuit after dangerous game of ‘Simon Says’ with police

Phoenix police officials found all four officers involved in Devoe’s arrest to have acted within policy, records show.

After a two-day trial, jurors unanimously found Devoe not guilty on all four of the felony charges against him — including aggravated assault on officers and resisting arrest.

In her statement, Tyree said true accountability is not possible without changing state law.

“Accountability remains out of reach in Arizona because the Peace Officers’ Bill of Rights continues to insulate misconduct from meaningful oversight, too often shifting blame onto the very communities most impacted by these encounters,” she wrote. “We also encourage Arizona voters to engage their state legislators and advocate for the repeal or amendment of the Peace Officers’ Bill of Rights to ensure systems of public safety are truly accountable to the public they serve.”

Devoe’s case again highlights problems with policing in Phoenix, which has been under scrutiny following a Department of Justice investigation that found the city had a pattern and practice of using excessive force, discrimination, and weak oversight.

ABC15 is committed to finding the answers you need and holding those accountable.

Submit your news tip to Investigators@abc15.com

The push for federal oversight ended in 2025 after the Trump administration ended such efforts across the country.

Devoe’s civil attorney, Jesse Showalter, also represents Tyron McAlpin, a deaf Black man with cerebral palsy who was violently arrested by Phoenix officers in July 2024. Showalter has said both cases reflect what he described as an accepted norm of extreme violence within the Phoenix Police Department.

A Phoenix police spokesperson said the department declines to comment because Devoe is set to file a lawsuit against the city.

This digital article was produced with the assistance of AI and converted to this platform based on the broadcast story written and reported by ABC15 Chief Investigator Dave Biscobing (Dave@abc15.com). Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.

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Arizona

Arizona Lottery Pick 3, Fantasy 5 results for March 1, 2026

Published

19 hours ago

March 2, 2026

Press Room

Arizona Lottery Pick 3, Fantasy 5 results for March 1, 2026

The Arizona Lottery offers multiple draw games for those aiming to win big.

Here’s a look at Sunday, March 1, 2026 results for each game:

Winning Pick 3 numbers

6-4-2

Check Pick 3 payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Fantasy 5 numbers

01-07-11-18-28

Check Fantasy 5 payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Triple Twist numbers

12-17-23-31-37-42

Check Triple Twist payouts and previous drawings here.

Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news and results

What time is the Powerball drawing?

Powerball drawings are at 7:59 p.m. Arizona time on Mondays, Wednesdays and Saturdays.

How much is a Powerball lottery ticket today?

In Arizona, Powerball tickets cost $2 per game, according to the Arizona Lottery.

How to play the Powerball

To play, select five numbers from 1 to 69 for the white balls, then select one number from 1 to 26 for the red Powerball.

You can choose your lucky numbers on a play slip or let the lottery terminal randomly pick your numbers.

To win, match one of the 9 Ways to Win:

5 white balls + 1 red Powerball = Grand prize.
5 white balls = $1 million.
4 white balls + 1 red Powerball = $50,000.
4 white balls = $100.
3 white balls + 1 red Powerball = $100.
3 white balls = $7.
2 white balls + 1 red Powerball = $7.
1 white ball + 1 red Powerball = $4.
1 red Powerball = $4.

There’s a chance to have your winnings increased two, three, four, five and 10 times through the Power Play for an additional $1 per play. Players can multiply non-jackpot wins up to 10 times when the jackpot is $150 million or less.

Are you a winner? Here’s how to claim your lottery prize

All Arizona Lottery retailers will redeem prizes up to $100 and may redeem winnings up to $599. For prizes over $599, winners can submit winning tickets through the mail or in person at Arizona Lottery offices. By mail, send a winner claim form, winning lottery ticket and a copy of a government-issued ID to P.O. Box 2913, Phoenix, AZ 85062.

To submit in person, sign the back of your ticket, fill out a winner claim form and deliver the form, along with the ticket and government-issued ID to any of these locations:

Phoenix Arizona Lottery Office: 4740 E. University Drive, Phoenix, AZ 85034, 480-921-4400. Hours: 7:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. Monday through Friday, closed holidays. This office can cash prizes of any amount.

Tucson Arizona Lottery Office: 2955 E. Grant Road, Tucson, AZ 85716, 520-628-5107. Hours: 7:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. Monday through Friday, closed holidays. This office can cash prizes of any amount.

Phoenix Sky Harbor Lottery Office: Terminal 4 Baggage Claim, 3400 E. Sky Harbor Blvd., Phoenix, AZ 85034, 480-921-4424. Hours: 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. Monday through Sunday, closed holidays. This office can cash prizes up to $49,999.

Kingman Arizona Lottery Office: Inside Walmart, 3396 Stockton Hill Road, Kingman, AZ 86409, 928-753-8808. Hours: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. Monday through Friday, 8:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. Saturday and Sunday, closed holidays. This office can cash prizes up to $49,999.

Check previous winning numbers and payouts at https://www.arizonalottery.com/.

This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by an Arizona Republic editor. You can send feedback using this form.

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Arizona

Here’s how to give public comment on future Colorado River plans

Published

1 day ago

March 1, 2026

Press Room

Here’s how to give public comment on future Colorado River plans

PHOENIX — After years of negotiations, Arizona still doesn’t know what its long-term water future will look like, and now the federal government is preparing to step in.

States across the Colorado River Basin have failed to reach a deal on how to share the shrinking river after current operating rules expire in 2026. With no state-led agreement in place, federal officials are moving forward with their own plan, one that could bring steep cuts to Arizona’s water supply.

And for Arizonans, the clock is ticking to weigh in. Public comment remains open until March 2. To submit your comment on what the government should do, send your comments in email to crbpost2026@usbr.gov.

Additional information is available online. The project website can be accessed here, along with links to YouTube videos published by the government, recorded in January and February which walk through of the options available.

Many Arizona leaders have already offered their public comments, which are overwhelmingly negative.

“We were very disappointed with that document,” said Brenda Burman, the Central Arizona Project General Manager “If any of those alternatives were implemented, it would be very difficult, and perhaps devastating for Arizona.”

Arizona’s top Colorado River negotiator, Tom Buschatzke, echoed those concerns.

“None of those alternatives are very good for the state of Arizona,” Buschatzke said. “I’m not seeing how we’re going to break that stalemate.”

Congressman Juan Ciscomani also criticized the proposals, saying the impacts of Colorado River cuts extends into Pinal, and Pima counties.

“That’s not an acceptable solution for us,” Ciscomani said. “We want to play ball, but we want to make sure everyone across the board uses less and becomes more efficient.”

Some of the federal alternatives would reduce Arizona’s Colorado River supply by 40%, 50%, or in the most extreme case up to 70%.

Experts at ASU Kyl Center for Water Policy say part of the problem lies upstream.

“The reason for this current impasse is because the upper basin states have refused to take cuts in their Colorado River use,” said Sarah Porter, the center’s director.

Upper Basin states like Colorado and Utah rely on different water rules than Arizona and other Lower Basin states, complicating negotiations that have dragged on for years.

Arizona has already been living with cuts for several years. Since 2021, the state has faced an 18% reduction in Colorado River water deliveries due to a Tier 1 shortage declaration. Most of those cuts have fallen on Central Arizona Project users, including agriculture and some tribal communities.

Buschatzke argues that pushing Arizona into deeper reductions would violate long-standing Western water law.

“We will be protecting the state of Arizona,” he said. “And if that has to be litigation, it will be litigation.”

That means a lawsuit against the federal government, or upper basin states is now a real possibility if the final plan moves forward unchanged. The state legislature has put $3 million in a state fund for potential litigation on the Colorado River.

After the comment period closes, the federal government is required to review public feedback and issue a formal ‘Record of Decision’, likely sometime this summer. Advocacy groups say public feedback matters.

“I just encourage Arizonans to look at this document, understand what that means for your family, your businesses, and what it means for the future,” said Kyle Roerink of the Great Basin Water Network. “Then figure out if you want to advocate for one scenario over another.”

A new operating plan must be in place by October 1, setting the rules for how the Colorado River will be managed for years to come, and shaping Arizona’s water future in the process.

This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.

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