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Arizona could have more seats in Congress after 2030 census

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Arizona could have more seats in Congress after 2030 census


By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services

PHOENIX — If the current population trends continue, Arizona will have a bit more influence in Washington after the 2030 census.
And California and New York will have less than they do now. A lot less.
That’s the analysis of Election Data Services which studies figures from the U.S. Census Bureau and figures out how that will affect how many seats in the U.S. House each state will get. And based on its projections, the company figures Arizona’s population, now about 7.4 million will reach close to 8 million.
More to the point, if the trends hold, that means the state will get an additional seat after the decennial count, bringing the total to 10.
But the predictions are based on more than just pure population growth.
That’s because congressional representation is a zero-sum game: There are only 435 seats to go around.
So that that are losing population — or even whose growth is not keeping up, are going to have to shed a representative.
Or more.
Kimball Brace, president of EDS, estimates that California actually lose will four seats in the House. But the mostly Democratic state will still have 48 representatives, more than any other.
New York, another largely Democratic stronghold, will lose three. That would still leave it with 23 representatives.
At the other extreme, at the current growth rate, heavily Republican Texas will have four more members in the House, bringing its total to 42. And Florida, also a state dominated by the GOP, stands to gain three to bring its representation up to 31.
And there’s another factor at play in dividing up those House seats.
Every state, no matter how small, is entitled to a representative. So that takes seven states which have only one seat in the House out of the mix, seats that, under other circumstances, could be reapportioned to faster growing states.
Brace said whether the trends to GOP-dominated states lead to a political shift in Congress is not a simple question.
“In the overall trend, it’s better on the Republican side,” he told Capitol Media Services.
But Brace said there’s another factor at play: the process that takes place in each state every 10 years redrawing the lines for the congressional districts.
In many states that process is purely political, with the decisions left to state lawmakers. And they tend to craft districts that are favorable to the majority party.
Still, there are constraints, including federal laws that make it illegal to act in ways that dilute minority voting strength.
That generally means ensuring that certain groups — Blacks in some states and Hispanics in others — have the same chance of electing someone of their choice as they did before.
Then there are states like Arizona.
While Republicans outnumber Democrats — and, for the moment, have control of the House and Senate — there actually are more political independents than those in either party.
And there’s something else.
In 2000, Arizona voters wrested control of the decennial redistricting process away from lawmakers — the people who had drawn lines favorable to the GOP majority — and instead created the Independent Redistricting Commission, a panel of two Republicans, two Democrats and a political independent who is chosen by the other four.
That law requires the panel to consider various factors, like respecting communities of interest, using county boundaries when possible, and having districts of roughly equal population. The commission also is required to create as many politically competitive districts as possible, those where a candidate from either party has a chance of winning.
And then there are those same federal laws that preclude enacting maps that dilute minority voting strength.
But all those guardrails have not eliminated complaints that politics still plays a role.
The first process resulted in litigation that lasted nearly a decade as Democrats and Hispanics charged that the panel had short-changed them.
Democrats did better after the 2010 census when Republicans charged that the Colleen Mathis, the independent who chaired the new panel, was siding with Democrats.
That played out over the decade, with the 2020 election — the last run under the old maps — resulting in a congressional delegation of five Democrats and four Republicans.
The situation was reversed with a new commission chosen after the 2020 census, with Democrats this time complaining that Erika Newberg, who chaired the panel, sided with Republicans. Whatever the truth of those complaints, the state now has six Republicans in the U.S. House and three Democrats.
All that will have to play out again after the 2030 census — when the state should have 10 House seats — with a new redistricting commission.
As it turns out, Brace said, Arizona should have gotten that 10th congressional seat after the 2020 census.
The official numbers — the ones released by the Census Bureau in 2021 after being delayed due to COVID and the ones used to divide up House seats — showed Arizona 79,509 residents away from that goal.
He noted, however, the agency just this past month released revised numbers for what they believe was the population in 2020. And that figure, Brace said, showed Arizona had not just enough for 10 congressional districts but another 111,058 to spare.
Blame COVID, he said.
“That delayed everything from the Census Bureau standpoint which pushed things back and caused them to no do some of the activities they had done before to verify and cross-check and that sort of stuff,” Brace explained.
He also said the Census Bureau has recognized “they’ve got to do something different and better.
“But 2020 was not the year to do that,” Brace continued. In fact, he said, some of the progress the agency had made in prior years about undercounts and overcounts “got reversed in 2020, not only because of COVID but because they didn’t get the time to experiment with and implement some changes because of the delayed timetable.
Finally, Brace cautioned that any prognostication of state populations in 2030 at this point come with a very big caveat: It depends on factors that can’t be anticipated.
Consider, he said, the projections for the first half of the 2000s decade which had indicated that Louisiana would gain a set in the 2010 Census.
“However, hurricane Katrina hit the state in 2005 and caused much of New Orleans’ population to move elsewhere,” Brace said. “By the time the 2010 Census was taken, the resulting reapportionment showed the state actually losing a congressional district instead of gaining a seat.”
What also can matter, he said, are changes in the economy, especially when people are unable to sell the houses they have and move elsewhere.
-30-
On X and Twitter: @azcapmedia
States expected to gain districts in 2030:

Arizona +1 (from 9 to 10)
Florida + 3 (from 28 to 31)
Georgia +1 (from 14 to 15)
Idaho +1 (from 2 to 3)
North Carolina +1 (from 14 to 15)
Tennessee +1 (from 9 to 10)
Texas +4 (from 38 to 42)
Utah +1 (from 4 to 5)

States expected to lose districts in 2030:

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California -4 (from 52 to 48)
Illinois -2 (from17 to 15)
Minnesota -1 (from 8 to 7)
New York -3 (from26 to 23)
Oregon – 1 (from 6 to 5)
Pennsylvania -1 (from 17 to 16)
Rhode Island -1 (from 2 to 1)

— Source: Election Data Services





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Arizona’s Biosphere 2 is now home to endangered Sonoyta pupfish

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Arizona’s Biosphere 2 is now home to endangered Sonoyta pupfish


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  • The rare Sonoyta pupfish were introduced into a desert river habitat inside the huge Biosphere 2 structure near Tucson.
  • The dish are native to Quitobaquito Springs near the Arizona-Mexico border, but their numbers have dwindled with water levels in the habitat.
  • Biosphere 2 was built as a sealed habitat for humans, but the first two “missions” failed and it has evolved into a laboratory owned by the University of Arizona.

ORACLE, AZ — Four dozen Sonoyta pupfish are now swimming beneath the towering glass pyramids of the University of Arizona’s Biosphere 2 after a multi-year effort to conserve the critically endangered species.

The rare desert fish were introduced into a newly constructed desert stream habitat at the research facility on Oct. 24, welcomed by a cheering crowd of university students, biologists and self-proclaimed fish lovers. 

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“Biosphere 2 is a theater of all possibilities,” said Joaquin Ruiz, director of the facility. “In addition to what we do to try to understand how ecosystems operate, we’re also going to be the safe harbor of a species that is endangered.”

The release is a collaboration between the University of Arizona, U.S. Fish and Wildlife, and the Arizona Game and Fish Department. 

Measuring about two inches long, the small blue-green and brown-striped fish are also called Quitobaquito pupfish because they can only be found in the wild at Quitobaquito Springs, a small, spring-fed oasis in Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument near the U.S.-Mexico border.

“Whenever I talk about pupfish in my class, I know they’re really easy to identify. They’re very cute. They’re called pupfish because they look like little puppy dogs,” said University of Arizona associate professor Peter Reinthal, who originated the idea for the pupfish introduction.

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A new use for a storied structure

After teaching a hands-on portion of his class on ichthyology (the study of fish) inside Biosphere 2, Reinthal wrote a grant through the U.S. Fish and Wildlife’s Desert Fish Habitat Partnership to fund the construction of the stream inside a giant habitat once intended for humans.

Biosphere 2 — named after the planet Earth, the original biosphere — was built in the late 1980s by Space Biospheres Ventures, a private company with a goal of creating an entirely self-sustaining Earth ecosystem beneath the glass walls. In the 1990s, the facility gained national attention when researchers were locked inside Biosphere 2 for two years to simulate a futuristic space colony. The first two “missions” failed and the structure evolved into a science laboratory.

The University of Arizona gained ownership of the property in 2011 and now operates the facility as an Earth Systems Research Center and tourist destination.

State and federal agencies collaborated with the university and drafted a Safe Harbor Agreement, a voluntary agreement that allows individuals and organizations to keep populations of endangered species and contribute to their recovery.

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The introduced pupfish are a part of a backup population meant to safeguard the species from extinction if the wild population declines. 

The entire project took about two years of planning and implementation.

“I’ve been a scientist all my life and every project I ever do it’s to collect data or produce papers. This is the first one we did where we actually built something physical,” said Reinthal. “I really, really enjoyed that.”

Habitat loss drives population declines in hardy desert fish

Behind their “cute” faces and chubby bodies, the Sonoyta pupfish are survivors.

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Adapted to live in extreme environments, the pupfish are capable of surviving drastic temperature changes, a range of pH levels and low-oxygen water.

“They can survive in 110-degree water, which is wild. And they can handle a lot of salinity,” said Brett Montgomery, topminnow and pupfish specialist with the Arizona Game and Fish Department. “They can exist in springs and streams with all those things that you wouldn’t think would allow fish to survive.”

Despite their hardy nature, the primary threat to the pupfish species has been habitat loss.

The Sonoyta pupfish were listed under the Endangered Species Act in 1986, and today, their total population is about 2,000.

The species was once found south of the border in the Rio Sonoyta, but since groundwater pumping has depleted the river, there has been no observable population in the watershed. 

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“A good number of animal species rely on streams like this in the natural world, and they’re valuable places to a large diversity of species, both plants and animals. We need to take care of them,” said Jason Deleeuw, terrestrial biome manager at Biosphere 2.

Habitat is also an educational tool

Deleeuw constructed the desert stream with a local construction company and help from student workers. The stream features several pools to hold the endangered fish and includes native vegetation to emulate their disappearing natural environment. 

About 34,000 fish species are expected to go extinct in the next 25-50 years, according to Reinthal. A recent study co-authored by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature found that 26% of all freshwater fish species were at high risk of extinction. 

Reinthal hopes the population of endangered fish will serve as an educational resource for both university classes and for those visiting Biosphere 2 as a tourist destination.

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“It’s a great outreach tool,” said Reinthal. “Biosphere 2 gets about 80,000 visitors a year here, so the public can learn about fish.”

As pupfish settled into their new home right away, establishing territory and chasing each other in circles, the biologists are already planning for future introductions.

Montgomery said he hopes to introduce additional Sonoyta pupfish once the government shutdown ends, and after the pupfish are acclimated, the team plans to introduce the endangered Gila topminnow to the Biosphere 2’s desert stream habitat.

“They make people happy,” said Reinthal. “And I tell my class, if you don’t like pupfish, it means you’re a mean person.”

John Leos covers environmental issues for The Arizona Republic and azcentral. Send tips or questions to john.leos@arizonarepublic.com.

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Environmental coverage on azcentral.com and in The Arizona Republic is supported by a grant from the Nina Mason Pulliam Charitable Trust.

Follow The Republic environmental reporting team at environment.azcentral.com and @azcenvironment on Facebook and Instagram.





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How wide open is the expanded Arizona 2A high school football playoff field?

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How wide open is the expanded Arizona 2A high school football playoff field?


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This week, the 2A Arizona high school football playoffs begin for 16 of the 24 teams in the postseason. The top eight teams have byes to next week’s round of 16.

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The expanded field gives a conference with 51 schools a chance to extend the season. But how wide open is it? The Arizona Lutheran win over Scottsdale Christian in the final week of the regular season showed it might be anybody’s title.

“I think it’s as open as it can be,” said Scottsdale Christian coach Mike Sheahan, whose team won the past two titles and was No. 1 by The Arizona Republic all season until the Arizona Lutheran loss. “Whoever gets hot will win it.”

Let’s break down the Oct. 31 first-round matchups. All games start at 7 p.m., at the higher seed’s field:

No. 17 Santa Cruz (5-5) at No. 16 Glendale Prep (7-3). This isn’t your typical Santa Cruz team. It got blown out by Phoenix Christian and Arizona Lutheran during a four-game losing streak. Glendale Prep’s loss to No. 1 Veritas Prep should help it adjust to what it needs to win this game. The winner plays at Veritas Prep on Nov. 7.

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No. 24 Tonopah Valley (4-5) at No. 9 Tanque Verde (8-2). The winner plays at No. 8 Camp Verde on Nov. 7. Tonopah Valley hasn’t had the same offensive firepower that it did the last few years under Brett Davis. Tanque Verde looks like a team ready to move into the next round.

No. 21 Scottsdale Prep (5-5) at No. 12 Parker (7-2). Don’t expect an upset. Parker should advance to play Nov. 7 at No. 5 Arizona Lutheran, which had one of its toughest games two weeks ago in a 19-12 win over the Broncs. “After playing Parker, I thought they were a top-eight team,” Arizona Lutheran coach David Peter said.

No. 20 Alchesay (6-2) at No. 13 Chandler Prep (7-3). The winner advances against No. 4 St. John’s, which has a legit shot to win the whole thing. Chandler Prep should win, but it is coming off a 35-7 loss to Pima.

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No. 19 Globe (6-4) at No. 14 Benson (6-4). Benson has more impressive wins, a tougher schedule and should get through to face No. 3 Phoenix Christian on Nov. 7.

No. 22 Mountainside (6-4) at No. 11 Trivium Prep (7-3). When these teams met on Oct. 10, Trivium Prep struggled to beat Mountainside 20-14. It’s always hard to beat the same team twice in a season. The winner goes to No. 6 Willcox on Nov. 7.

No. 23 Holbrook (6-4) at No. 10 Pima (6-4). Don’t bet against Pima, which may be the healthiest it has been all season, after taking apart Chandler Prep last week. Holbrook just lost to Tuba City 20-18. Expect to see Pima next week at No. 7 San Tan Charter.

No. 18 Tuba City (7-3) at No. 15 Morenci (6-4). It’s been difficult for a reservation school to get beyond the first round in football, and Tuba City, which is part of the Navajo Nation, is facing a team that has had an extremely hard schedule, losing close games to Pima (13-6) and St. Johns (21-12) down the stretch. Expect Morenci to play at No. 2 Scottsdale Christian on Nov. 7.

Richard Obert has been covering high school sports since the 1980s for The Arizona Republic. Catch the best high school sports coverage in the state. Sign up for Azcentral Preps Now. And be sure to subscribe to our daily sports newsletters so you don’t miss a thing. To suggest human-interest story ideas and other news, reach Obert at richard.obert@arizonarepublic.com or 602-316-8827. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter:@azc_obert

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