Nine seismic stations in Alaska are set to go dark this month, leaving tsunami forecasters without important data used to determine whether an earthquake will send a destructive wave barreling toward the West Coast.

The stations relied on a federal grant that lapsed last year; this fall, the Trump administration declined to renew it. Data from the stations helps researchers determine the magnitude and shape of earthquakes along the Alaskan Subduction Zone, a fault that can produce some of the most powerful quakes in the world and put California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii at risk.

Losing the stations could lead Alaska’s coastal communities to receive delayed notice of an impending tsunami, according to Michael West, the director of the Alaska Earthquake Center. And communities farther away, like in Washington state, could get a less precise forecast.

“In sheer statistics, the last domestic tsunami came from Alaska, and the next one likely will,” he said.

It’s the latest blow to the U.S.’ tsunami warning system, which was already struggling with disinvestment and understaffing. Researchers said they are concerned that the network is beginning to crumble.

“All the things in the tsunami warning system are going backwards,” West said. “There’s a compound problem.”

The U.S. has two tsunami warning centers — one in Palmer, Alaska, and the other in Honolulu — that operate around-the-clock making predictions that help emergency managers determine whether coastal evacuations are necessary after an earthquake. The data from Alaska’s seismic stations has historically fed into the centers.

Both centers are already short-staffed. Of the 20 full-time positions at the center in Alaska, only 11 are currently filled, according to Tom Fahy, the union legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization. In Hawaii, four of the 16 roles are open. (Both locations are in the process of hiring scientists, Fahy said.)

Additionally, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration has decreased funding for the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, which pays for the majority of states’ tsunami risk reduction work. The agency provided $4 million in 2025 — far less than the $6 million it has historically offered.

“It’s on life support,” West said of the program.

On top of that, NOAA laid off the National Weather Service’s tsunami program manager, Corina Allen, as part of the Trump administration’s firing of probationary workers in February, according to Harold Tobin, the Washington state seismologist. Allen, who had recently started at the agency, declined to comment via a spokesperson for her new employer, the Washington State Department of Natural Resources.

These recent cuts have played out amid the Trump administration’s broader efforts to slash federal spending on science and climate research, among other areas. NOAA fired hundreds of workers in February, curtailed weather balloon launches and halted research on the costs of climate and weather disasters, among other cuts.

Most of the seismic stations being shut down in Alaska are in remote areas of the Aleutian Islands, West said. The chain extends west from the Alaskan Peninsula toward Russia, tracing an underwater subduction zone. KHNS, a public radio station in Alaska, first reported the news that the stations would be taken offline.

A NOAA grant for about $300,000 each year had supported the stations. The Alaska Earthquake Center requested new grant funding through 2028, but it was denied, according to an email between West and NOAA staffers that was viewed by NBC News.

Kim Doster, a NOAA spokeswoman, said the federal agency stopped providing the money in 2024 under the Biden administration. In the spring, the University of Alaska Fairbanks ponied up funds to keep the program going for another year, believing that the federal government would ultimately cover the cost, said Uma Bhatt, a University of Alaska Fairbanks professor and associate director of the research institute that administered the grant. But new funds never materialized.

“The loss of these observations does not prevent the Tsunami Warning Center from being able to carry out its mission,” Doster said. “The AEC [Alaska Earthquake Center] is one of many partners supporting the National Weather Service’s tsunami operations, and NWS continues to use many mechanisms to ensure the collection of seismic data across the state of Alaska.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

West said the Alaska Earthquake Center provides the majority of data used for tsunami warnings in the state. The grant that supported the nine seismic stations also funded a data feed with information from the center’s other sensors, according to West. The national tsunami warning centers will no longer have direct access to the feed.

West said the stations on the Aleutian Islands cover a huge geographic range.

“There’s nothing else around,” he said. “It’s not like there’s another instrument 20 miles down the road. There’s no road.”

The plan is to abandon the stations later this month and leave their equipment in place, West added.

Tobin, in Washington state, said he worries that the closures “could delay or degrade the quality of tsunami warnings.”

“This is a region that’s sparsely monitored. We kind of need to have a stethoscope on this region,” he said, adding: “These programs are in the background until a big, terrible event happens.”

The Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone is one of the most active faults in the world and has produced significant tsunamis in the past. In 1964, a tsunami produced by a magnitude-9.2 earthquake killed 124 people, including 13 in California and five in Oregon, according to NOAA. Most of the California deaths were in Crescent City, where a 21-foot wave destroyed 29 city blocks, according to the city’s website.

Tsunami experts said the stations in the Aleutian Islands are critical in quickly understanding nearby earthquakes. The closer a quake is to a sensor, the less uncertainty about a subsequent tsunami.

NOAA’s tsunami warning centers aim to put out an initial forecast within five minutes, West said, which is critical for local communities. (A strong earthquake in the Aleutian Islands could send an initial wave into nearby Alaskan communities within minutes.) The only data available quickly enough to inform those initial forecasts comes from seismic signals (rather than tide gauges or pressure sensors attached to buoys).

The warning centers then put out a more specific forecast of wave heights after about 40 minutes. Daniel Eungard, the tsunami program lead for the Washington Geological Survey, said that not having the Alaska sensors would create more uncertainty about the heights of waves expected, complicating decisions about whether to evacuate along the Washington coastline.

“We try not to over-evacuate,” he said, adding that it costs time, money and trust if warnings prove unnecessary.

Over the last year, the national tsunami warning centers have had their hands full. A magnitude-7.0 earthquake near Cape Mendocino, California, triggered tsunami alerts along the state’s coast in December. In July, a magnitude-8.8 quake off Russia’s Kamchatka peninsula prompted a widespread alert along the U.S. West Coast. The peninsula is just west of the Aleutian Islands.

NOAA helped build many of the seismic stations that have been part of the Alaska Earthquake Center’s network. But West said the agency has decreased its support over the past two decades; nine NOAA-built stations were decommissioned in 2013.

“It’s now or never to decide whether or not NOAA is part of this,” he said. “What I really want to do is spark a discussion about tsunami efforts in the U.S. and have that not be triggered by the next devastating tsunami.”